Monday, September 29, 2014

Reason to Hope?

Probably.  The papers are full of happy talk about the Cubs future, including pearls of wisdom from Castro and Rizzo about winning a division next year.  That's certainly possible.  The NL Central, despite providing two playoff teams for the second straight season, is not the strongest in baseball, nor are the Pirates and Cardinals powerhouse teams without significant weaknesses.

On the plus side, the Cubs went 31-28 in the last two months of 2014 despite trading away Samardzija and Hammel, playing a pretty tough schedule down the stretch, and losing both Rizzo and Castro to injuries for a good chunk of that time.

They sure did not win because of their hitting, as they continue to have problems scoring runs and putting innings together.  I am of a mind the real reason they did OK during the stretch was because of their pitching.  Arrieta and Hendricks were especially impressive and Wada did well to keep them in games.  The bullpen also seemed to gel when they could rotate Grimm, Ramirez, Strop, and Rondon into the late innings of close games or games when they had the lead.  The addition of another lefty in the pen and a first class starter like Lester would make them an impressive staff next season.

On the offensive side, besides the reconstruction of Castro and Rizzo as hitters, the positive steps were the progress of Chris Coghlan and the promotion of Jorge Soler.  In my mind, Soler is a potential star and Coghlan a keeper as a leadoff hitter.

Negative steps were the performance of Lake and Olt.  I still don't think Olt had a fair shot, especially late in the year when he was striking out a lot less on the days he played.  Lake looks like a guy they ought to give up on real soon.

Alcantara and Baez were not the successes that people hoped for.  Together they struck out about 40% of the time.  I think Alcantara will improve in this regard next year, though whether he will be a .300 hitter who gets on base enough to use his speed is another question.  At 2B, that's OK, in CF, where he is a work-in-progress defensively, maybe not.

I don't know what to say about Baez that has not already been said.  He is either a budding star or a complete dud.  Indications so far favor the latter.  OK, he's only 21, but he is just clueless thus far.  All players develop at a different pace, but, geez, I don't think that Trout and Harper looked this bad, nor did Castro who was even younger when he came up.  Baez's numbers and performance are worse than Lake and Olt, and that is saying something.

The free agent market is pretty thin for impact bats.  Russell Martin is the only guy worth a flyer and this means giving up on Welington Castillo.  Castillo has developed into a pretty good defensive catcher, but so far his offense has been inconsistent.  Might be too early to write him off.

Much of the Cubs hopes next year, even if they make the smart moves to shore up the rotation, will depend on how great an impact Bryant makes.  He is likely a sure-fire star, but will he be enough to push the Cubs to the top?

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