Friday, July 24, 2015

Reds Series

The Cubs wound up splitting the four game set with Cincinnati.  I don't think they played especially well.  They showed a lot of grit winning the extra-inning game Tuesday night and coming back from five runs down to win the nightcap last night.  They had a winning road trip in any case.

The Cubs have not been playing that impressively over the last month or so despite getting really good, with a couple of exceptions, starting pitching and super relief pitching except for, again, a couple of blowups, mainly by Strop.  This is mainly because, despite grinding out at-bats, they are just not scoring runs.  They have a good stretch of games against weak opponents coming up, so the opportunity exists to make up some ground.  The Cardinals and the Pirates are treading water right now, so the chance to make a run does exist.

On the positive side, Kyle Schwarber has certainly impressed, at least as a hitter.  It makes you wonder whether Montero might become the next Wally Pipp.  The Cubs plan to play Schwarber a little in left field as well as continuing his education as a catcher.  You have to figure that with the timetable for Montero's return stretching into late August at best that the kid has probably seen the last of the minor leagues.

There is quite a lot of speculation about trade deadline moves.  The latest focuses on Cole Hamels, who, as I have stated on multiple occasions, makes a lot of sense.  He is a premier starter who is under contract for three more seasons as well as an option year.  He is expensive, but the Cubs can afford it.  David Price is probably the best pitcher who may come on the market, but he is a rental.  If the Cubs cannot get Hamels, I would expect them to pick up a fairly ordinary arm to give them some assurance should Wada not recover from his injuries and hope for the best.  Price will be available on the free agent market after the season is over.

The other rentals - Cueto, Leake, Samardzija, etc. - are good players, but the question is anyone you acquire will only start ten or twelve games.  So figure they go 7-3 or something like that in those games, best case.  I haven't computed the team's record when the fifth starter pitches, but the difference in the likelihood of winning is probably on the order of three or four games at best.  The question then becomes whether it is worth a good prospect for the chance to make it to a one-game playoff that you might reach anyway without the trade.

I do, however, think the Cubs need to bolster the bench some way or other.  In particular, I don't think they can compete through the month of August with thirteen pitchers and three catchers.  Last night's second game was a good example of the trouble they are in with this configuration.  Maddon had to use the Taylor Teagarden against Aroldis Chapman to pinch hit for the pitcher in the eighth inning with the game on the line.  Sure, Teagarden delivered the winning hit, but how often is that going to happen?

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