Cubs Assessment

MLB Trade Rumors has put out a fairly brief but cogent analysis of the Cubs roster situation going into the off-season and some possible scenarios.  On the whole a pretty fair assessment of things. 
Don't read the comments, which are effectively hijacked by idiots who want the Cubs to trade several of their more talented young players and half the minor league system to the White Sox for Chris Sale.  I'm not exactly certain what motivates people like this.  Perhaps they did not notice that despite having Chris Sale, the Sox won 75 games last season and finished next to last in their division.

Actually, many sportswriters and pundits, as well as misguided fans, have kind of gone nuts speculating on possible post-season moves the Cubs might make.  Most of these proposals border on delusional.  A favorite seems to be that the Cubs trade Kyle Schwarber to Oakland for Sonny Gray.  So Schwarber misplayed several balls in the post-season.  OK, but during the regular season, Schwarber played an adequate left field and nobody really said anything about his defensive skills.  Schwarber hit 16 home runs in 69 games, 232 ABs.  Project that out to a full season and you are looking at something near 40 home runs or more.  Nobody trades that kind of power for a 14 game winner.  Furthermore, Schwarber is under team control for the better part of the decade.  So is Gray, and nobody trades a pitcher who is under team control for just as long, especially when you figure your team is unlikely to become a contender for several years.

Epstein pretty much said what the Cubs are likely to do in the off-season.  They are going to try to bring back Fowler as a free agent unless his demands are too great or someone offers him off the chart money.  Their fallback is going to be signing Jackson, which will be a cheaper alternative.  Jackson is a better defensive outfielder, but, of course, Fowler was such a great catalyst to the offense that you have to believe they will go all-out to retain him or pick up someone with similar skills to lead off.

Epstein also said the team would like to keep the nucleus of young talent they have developed intact, and that were the Cubs to engineer a trade, it would be from position players where they have a surplus or strength.  The Cubs have three starting shortstops on the major league roster, so the focus of this statement must be there.

Their real need is another starting pitcher.  I'm guessing Price is the first choice, but, of course, Price is going to break the bank.  Failing that, the Cubs could always focus on one of the second tier arms like Cueto, or even a project like Samardzija.  They probably also would be willing to trade Baez or Castro for someone like Carrasco or Ross, but there are issues with this.  First off, you don't know which one to trade.  Castro has the weakest upside, but the worry there is whether his overall performance has lessened his trade value, which had taken an enormous hit before his September resurrection.

One possible trade I don't want them to make is Soler.  Soler has been hurt a lot during his career, but after the show he put on in late September and into the playoffs, his potential is off the charts.  Plus, he is also signed cheap for quite a long time.