Sunday, October 16, 2016

A Tense, Tough Loss

Here's my take for what it is worth.  Kershaw was outstanding, similarly Jensen.  That is really all the Dodgers have, though, so I still like the Cubs chances.  Hendricks was also really good.  He gave up a home run to Gonzalez in the second inning on a good pitch that was a ball.  So, in this case, you have to tip your hat and move on.

Some observations, however.  The Cubs had one legitimate shot in the fifth inning when Baez and Contreras singled with two outs.  Heyward was due up.  Heyward is an automatic out most of the time this season, especially against a good left-hander.  The time to pinch hit Soler was then, not the following inning to lead off.  Later on, in the seventh inning, they had half-a-shot when Rizzo walked.  Baez just missed a pitch.  That was it. Kershaw was certainly on his game.  He had the benefit of a pretty generous strike zone and the Cubs were never able to run up his pitch count.  The only inning they got him to twenty pitches was the sixth, but, despite lengthy at-bats by Fowler and Bryant, he was able to tough it out.

Although Maddon has been adventurous with his bullpen and lineup switches late in the game, he has been uncharacteristically conservative in terms of his starting lineup and downright stubborn in terms of constructing his batting order during the playoffs.  While it is certainly defensible to bat Bryant second and Rizzo third, batting Zobrist cleanup is not a good choice.  Zobrist is a competent hitter, but the mere fact that he finished the season with 76 RBI batting behind a trio of players who came close individually to being on base at a .400 average means he did not consistently get the job done.  Russell, who had a fairly mediocre batting average, drove in 95 runs, which is a testament not so much to his abilities as a run producer, but to Zobrist's deficiencies.

The Cubs have been in a bit of a batting funk for several weeks now.  Some of this may have been due to the early clinching, the lack of meaningful games, and the constant lineup shuffling and days off during the final weeks of the season.  However, what is clear now is that the team is not producing offensively like a team that won 103 games and that to advance to the World Series, they need to start doing so.

The team is being carried through the playoffs largely by Fowler, Bryant, and Baez.  Also Contreras when he plays.  Rizzo is mired in a terrible slump and he is clearly pressing.  Russell is also slumping, and Heyward, of course, has produced nothing all year long.  Maddon's response has been to stick with these guys and to stick with a set lineup, which is a bit surprising because he usually plays matchups much more often than not.  It is also cool when there are seventy games left to play, but not so cool when there are potentially three.

My modest suggestion is to sit Heyward against lefties at a minimum.  I know he is a great defender and all that, but the Cubs weakness is not defense or pitching.  Unfortunately, Soler had a nagging injury late in the year and did not have enough appearances to regain his timing.  I would still start him against the lefty Tuesday night and I would bat him fourth or fifth.  Baez needs to move up in the lineup as well and Russell needs to drop down to seventh or eighth until he regains his stroke.  If you don't want to hit Zobrist second where he kind of belongs, you need to drop him down to sixth.

Maddon has not been afraid to shake things up in the past and it would be a shame to let the season slip away through taking too cautious an approach.



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