I've been meaning to get around to a more comprehensive analysis of the Cubs hot stove dealings, so here it goes, at least in terms of first impressions. The Cubs lost some significant pieces of their roster due to free agency, retirement, or declining to pick up options. Dexter Fowler, Aroldis Chapman, David Ross, and Jason Hammel are the players to whom I refer. In addition, the Cubs seem to have said goodbye to a few other assets, viz., Coghlan, Cahill, and Wood, all of whom became free agents. There have been some rumors that they have been in touch with Wood, but so far it is just rumors. Wood wants to start, though, which doesn't seem in the cards.
As far as Hammel goes, I was not surprised they let him walk. Nor would I have been surprised to see him retained. The curious thing about Hammel is that, besides being a lot better pitcher before the All-Star Break than after in most seasons, is that he has been pretty much of a flop everywhere but with the Cubs, where he has delivered parts of three very solid seasons. So far, Hammel has not drawn a lot of interest. Maybe other teams have noticed this too.
The departure of Hammel did leave a gap in the rotation. Apparently, Montgomery is the likeliest player to inherit the fifth spot. I like Montgomery and I think he will deliver. Going into the off-season, though, the major team needs were to shore up the rotation and the bullpen and to find a replacement for Fowler in center field and as a leadoff hitter. I still see room for improvement in the rotation, mostly in finding some sort of fallback for Lackey if he continues to slide. Most teams would be happy to have a guy like Lackey as a #5. In many respects, he strikes me as a notable pitcher in his declining days, much as Ferguson Jenkins and Greg Maddux were when the Cubs of yesteryear brought them back. Lackey is capable of some good performances, but my guess is he is a .500 pitcher at best next year.
There has been some talk of the Cubs signing Tyson Ross, the former Padres pitcher who is coming off thoracic outlet surgery. Ross is pretty good. Indeed the Cubs were looking to trade for him last off-season. The idea, I would suppose, is to sign him to a one-year of incentive-laden contract and bring him along slowly. That would be a smart move, but, of course, with a pitcher coming off surgery, it is not without risks.
On the bullpen side, the Cubs traded Jorge Soler for the former Royals closer Wade Davis. A healthy Davis is an upgrade over what remained of the Cubs bullpen. Arguably, he is a more versatile and more reliable closer option than Chapman, who, besides being really expensive, was not the most reliable pitcher for the Cubs last year. Chapman pissed off a lot of fans when he criticized Maddon for using him in the ninth inning of Game 6, though, honestly, he was not the only guy who questioned that move. I've always thought of Chapman as more of a physical freak, for want of a better term, not really a pitcher. I suspect what Chapman was really getting at, though, was his desire, like many of the current wave of power closers, preferably to pitch a single inning with a lead and nobody on base. To my mind, Andrew Miller and Kelly Jansen, were and are the best relief pitchers around right now.
With Montgomery moving into the rotation and Wood gone, the Cubs still need left-handed relievers. I would guess Zastryzny is in the mix. He looked good last year. They signed a couple of journeymen who don't look like much, as well as the aging Uehara, a righty who gets lefties out. I can see another move on the horizon here before spring training rolls around.
Going into the off-season, the Cubs really looked set in terms of position players with the exception of center field, so set in fact that they felt able to give up Soler for Davis even up. Whoever replaces Fowler, though, is going to have big shoes to fill. Fowler was not that great defensively, though more than adequate, but he quite simply was the catalyst for the offense through both seasons he played here.
The Cubs are seemingly committed to bringing Almora along. This guy is a terrific outfielder, but still an immature hitter. They also seem committed to keeping Heyward in right field rather than switching him to center. Heyward, of course, is an amazingly good outfielder, but, last year, he was an amazingly bad hitter. The Cubs signed Jon Jay, formerly the Cardinals center fielder for many years and lately a Padre. Jay is a really good outfielder and a decent hitter. He is certainly not in Fowler's league by any means. In some respects, Jay, especially if Almora pans out, fills the same role Coghlan has for the past two years.
So, the question is, right now, are the Cubs a better team than last year? In all honesty, they might be, but realistically, they are not. Still, with a little luck, they seem good enough to repeat, which is going to be OK with most fans.
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