It's hard to say for certain. Personally, I don't think so. They will probably win their division. But they might just fail. The past two seasons they won fifty games after the All-Star Break, so there is no reason to expect they are not capable of doing so again. On the other hand, the 2016 and 2015 teams were on a roll before the break, or at least had played well. This team has not.
The addition of a proven starter in Quintana is a big plus, and again the Cubs have beat the market and, in a way, set it for the other contenders. There are a few more controllable pitchers out there, but the price is going to be way high for their competitors. Before the trade, I thought they might have to settle for a rental, but Epstein and Hoyer have proved me wrong.
Just assessing the team's performance thus far, however, they are going to have to show improvement all over the place to advance. They are likely correct in thinking the basic core of young talent is where it is at. However, there is no doubt some players have been disappointing. Russell for one, although he has historically improved in the second half. Heyward, although he has not returned to his dismal 2016 level, has not exactly been an inspiration. Similarly, Schwarber has genuinely been awful. You can argue they won without both these guys last year, but, in Schwarber's case, someone else was playing every day. In my mind, Zobrist has been the biggest flop. He is going to have to pick it up for them to contend, especially if Maddon continues to bat him fourth.
As far as other trade possibilities go, it would not hurt to kick the tires on Avila, who would be a rental, but I would imagine they would not want to give up a first tier prospect in exchange. Similarly, they might take a shot at the left-handed reliever Hand from the Padres who would be more costly. Alternatively, they may be content to move Montgomery back to the bullpen and sit tight.
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