Phil Rogers has an article forecasting potential trade targets for the Cubs this offseason, as well as potential trade candidates on the team. None of them make much sense. The targets are all pitchers: Archer, Stroman, Nola, Fulmer, and Manaea. They are all reasonably good, not great or established arms, more in the way of #3 or #4 starters with the exception of Archer who might project as a #2. They are all around 24 or 25 years old with again the exception of Archer who is 29. Therein lies the problem with this sort of speculation. These guys are all young and under favorable team control for a long time and they are all on teams that are in the process of a rebuild or should be. So the truth is that none of these guys are going anywhere unless the return is more substantial than the Cubs are likely to offer.
In return, Rogers suggests the Cubs dangle Schwarber and/or Baez and/or Russell, possibly Happ. the problem here is that Schwarber and Russell are coming off down years where their value has been downgraded. Baez is, in my mind, completely overrated in terms of his achievement right now. He has made progress, but he still has a ways to go. Happ, I think, is a potential star. I would hope the Cubs are not thinking about dealing him off for a second-tier pitcher unless they want to draw comparisons to the Lou Brock trade.
All this speculation completely ignores the pitchers of comparable value who are available on the free agent market, namely, Cobb, Lynn, and Chatwood. These guys are just as good, reasonably young, and available for nothing. Another aspect of this as well is that Epstein and Hoyer really haven't traded a player who had an established record with the major league team and a considerable fan following. They have traded players of enormous potential who nobody had heard of, and, early on, players of some ability but no role in the future rebuild.
Saturday, October 28, 2017
Friday, October 27, 2017
The Big Shake-Up
The Cubs were surprisingly inept in the playoffs, but they appear to have saved the biggest surprises for the off-season in terms of the dismissals of pitching coach Bosio and hitting coach Mallee, also their third base coach as an afterthought.
Bosio's firing was probably the biggest surprise, as he was credited with improving a host of starting pitchers, most of whom were traded off to build the players who developed into the championship and perennial contender the Cubs are today. Some of them are still around, though, and formed a basis for the team's success, including Arrieta, Hendricks, Quintana, Duensing, Edwards, and Strop, to name a few.
I have speculated that the replacement of Bosio with Hickey, a longtime Maddon associate, might signal a shift on the Cubs part toward the development of younger arms, something, with the exception of Hendricks and Edwards, the Cubs have not accomplished. In any case, the deed was done.
I was not especially surprised at the dismissal of Mallee. By and large, the Cubs hitters did not take the next step this season after their World Series triumph. Injuries held back Addison Russell, but, Schwarber, for example, was a bust for most of the season and Heyward continued to struggle. Chili Davis has a great reputation, so lets hope he delivers the goods.
The biggest hit in the whole affair was taken by Maddon, who looked either like a superior Machiavellian manipulator or a complete jerk depending on one's point-of-view. This is mainly the result of his pre-elimination interview where he virtually assured all his coaches they were coming back if they wanted to stay and then promptly dumped the better part of them. Epstein had to come out and rescue the peerless leader by claiming the whole mess was a decision of the triumvirate of himself, the manager, and GM Hoyer and just part of the overall evaluation process that would make things better in the end.
Generally speaking, I like Maddon and I think he is a good manager, but lately he has been getting on people's nerves, chiefly by never owning up to bad decisions and taking responsibility for them. He managed the team rather badly through the playoffs, not that they would likely have advanced in any event, but, still...
There was an adage in baseball, or maybe I made it up to suit my point, to the effect that players and teams win games and manager's lose them. That honestly was true in the World Series last season when Maddon did put them in a position to lose and the team rallied on its own to claim the championship.
Bosio's firing was probably the biggest surprise, as he was credited with improving a host of starting pitchers, most of whom were traded off to build the players who developed into the championship and perennial contender the Cubs are today. Some of them are still around, though, and formed a basis for the team's success, including Arrieta, Hendricks, Quintana, Duensing, Edwards, and Strop, to name a few.
I have speculated that the replacement of Bosio with Hickey, a longtime Maddon associate, might signal a shift on the Cubs part toward the development of younger arms, something, with the exception of Hendricks and Edwards, the Cubs have not accomplished. In any case, the deed was done.
I was not especially surprised at the dismissal of Mallee. By and large, the Cubs hitters did not take the next step this season after their World Series triumph. Injuries held back Addison Russell, but, Schwarber, for example, was a bust for most of the season and Heyward continued to struggle. Chili Davis has a great reputation, so lets hope he delivers the goods.
The biggest hit in the whole affair was taken by Maddon, who looked either like a superior Machiavellian manipulator or a complete jerk depending on one's point-of-view. This is mainly the result of his pre-elimination interview where he virtually assured all his coaches they were coming back if they wanted to stay and then promptly dumped the better part of them. Epstein had to come out and rescue the peerless leader by claiming the whole mess was a decision of the triumvirate of himself, the manager, and GM Hoyer and just part of the overall evaluation process that would make things better in the end.
Generally speaking, I like Maddon and I think he is a good manager, but lately he has been getting on people's nerves, chiefly by never owning up to bad decisions and taking responsibility for them. He managed the team rather badly through the playoffs, not that they would likely have advanced in any event, but, still...
There was an adage in baseball, or maybe I made it up to suit my point, to the effect that players and teams win games and manager's lose them. That honestly was true in the World Series last season when Maddon did put them in a position to lose and the team rallied on its own to claim the championship.
Saturday, October 21, 2017
Post-Mortem
Whereas last year was magic, this year was not. Right from the start, things were off. They managed to right the ship after the break and play good ball, but they seemed to have little left for the playoffs. I rather disagree that the relatively weak post-break schedule accounts for that late season success. They played most of September against the Brewers and Cardinals, both of which were better teams than people give them credit for being.
What happened in the playoffs is they were outplayed and out-pitched. Their hitters were completely undisciplined. They seemed to forget all about working the count and grinding at-bats, traits that have been their hallmark. I don’t think starting pitching was necessarily their main weakness in the playoffs. The bullpen, though, sucked. The bullpen was a weakness before that as well. One thing the Cubs do need to assess is the whole issue of pacing the starters through the season. Deliberately shortening starts does lead to bullpen fatigue, which, coupled with some late season setbacks to Lester and Arrieta, meant trouble later on.
So Bosio is out, allegedly because his pitchers couldn’t throw strikes. This may signal a change of focus. Bosio was good at reprogramming more veteran arms, but he didn’t really develop much in the way of young pitching with the exception of Hendricks. Of course, the Cubs system has not produced much material to work with. Hickey, the rumored replacement, on the other hand, has been outstanding through his Tampa years in this respect. Also he is an old Maddon guy.
Epstein sort of hinted at being willing to trade a younger player for pitching. The question is making the right choice. Among the position players, the Cubs are saddled with one big contract, Heyward, who is pretty much a flop and who is robbing younger guys of at-bats and another, Zobrist, who is showing signs of rust.
The team will potentially lose Arrieta, Lackey, and Davis to free agency. Lackey will likely retire, but he won’t be back anyway. It would help to sign Arrieta or Davis. They probably cannot afford both and they need to be careful about signing pitchers in their thirties to long term deals.
Given the regression of several younger stars in terms of hitting this season and in the playoffs especially, one wonders how safe the hitting coach/coaches are.
Thursday, October 19, 2017
Backs to the Wall
I have to say one thing and that is that the Cubs have grit and determination. The Game 4 win was not pretty. They still haven't scored a run other than by the home run, but the won. Contreras and Baez came to life while the remainder of the team remained somnolent.
Arrieta pitched very well. Davis, who is pretty much lost to the team until Saturday, gutted out a six-out save. Well, they won, and that's what counts.
One observation: Davis really isn't any good at the multiple inning saves. His performance was more or less identical to the Game 5 NLDS save in that he was shaky until the ninth when he was dominant. I don't know what the psychology of this situation is on both the pitching and hitting ends, but there is something going on there. Maddon would be well advised to consider this for the future.
Another observation: the umpiring in this series has been pretty strange. OK, the Contreras play in Game 2 hinged on a peculiar interpretation of a rather vague rule about catchers blocking home plate. However, the one Wednesday night does play up a pretty strange set of rules.
So, although one may appeal a hit by pitch ruling, one may not appeal a foul tip call even though they involve an almost identical set of observations. However, in this case, the Dodgers were permitted to overturn a decision based initially on the ruling of an umpire standing inches from the play in favor of an umpire standing more than a hundred feet away. Maddon got tossed again. He kept gesturing toward the giant left field scoreboard that clearly confirmed the original ruling. The umpires resolutely refused to look at it. Go figure. In the end, of course, it didn't matter, as Granderson struck out on the next pitch.
Arrieta pitched very well. Davis, who is pretty much lost to the team until Saturday, gutted out a six-out save. Well, they won, and that's what counts.
One observation: Davis really isn't any good at the multiple inning saves. His performance was more or less identical to the Game 5 NLDS save in that he was shaky until the ninth when he was dominant. I don't know what the psychology of this situation is on both the pitching and hitting ends, but there is something going on there. Maddon would be well advised to consider this for the future.
Another observation: the umpiring in this series has been pretty strange. OK, the Contreras play in Game 2 hinged on a peculiar interpretation of a rather vague rule about catchers blocking home plate. However, the one Wednesday night does play up a pretty strange set of rules.
So, although one may appeal a hit by pitch ruling, one may not appeal a foul tip call even though they involve an almost identical set of observations. However, in this case, the Dodgers were permitted to overturn a decision based initially on the ruling of an umpire standing inches from the play in favor of an umpire standing more than a hundred feet away. Maddon got tossed again. He kept gesturing toward the giant left field scoreboard that clearly confirmed the original ruling. The umpires resolutely refused to look at it. Go figure. In the end, of course, it didn't matter, as Granderson struck out on the next pitch.
Sunday, October 15, 2017
Game 2
I have to say that Maddon's management of the team thus far through the playoffs has been eccentric and rather arrogant. I hate to harp on this chord, but, come on, John Lackey in relief with the game on the line. Who is kidding whom? So he liked the matchup with Taylor and he left him in to face Turner because he was going to pitch the tenth inning, which, of course, only means that he did not believe the Cubs would score in the top of the inning and that Lackey would blow the game anyway next time around. Or something. The media is definitely cutting Maddon way too much slack. Rondon and Davis, experienced relievers who can more or less be counted on to get a single out were available. No one knows why Lackey is even on the roster.
Granted the Cubs are not hitting a lick and are striking out at alarming rates, but...
Some other issues. Unlike Saturday when Quintana was good to go another inning, Lester was struggling and his pitch count was high, so there is no quarrel there. However, with Rizzo at first and two outs in the top of the ninth inning, why does Almora take his at-bat? Almora almost never hits against righties in those situations. Maddon has Happ, Schwarber, LaStella, and Avila available.
These playoff games have been nail-biters throughout, but besides the general inability of the Cubs to score runs, what stands out has been that each loss has hinged in one way or another on pitching decisions that Maddon has made that have turned sour.
In terms of the Dodgers, the Cubs match up quite well with them in terms of position players and their bench. There are only three real difference makers in the Dodgers lineup, Turner, Bellinger, and possibly Puig. Puig, though, is a flamboyant and undisciplined player rather like Baez, so you could make an argument either way there. Where the Dodgers excel, however, is with their pitching, especially the bullpen, which has been dominant so far against the Cubs. Still, this team should be doing a lot better. Despite both sides neutralizing their opponents starting pitching by running up the pitch counts, the Cubs have got to figure out a way to do the same thing with the Dodgers bullpen.
Granted the Cubs are not hitting a lick and are striking out at alarming rates, but...
Some other issues. Unlike Saturday when Quintana was good to go another inning, Lester was struggling and his pitch count was high, so there is no quarrel there. However, with Rizzo at first and two outs in the top of the ninth inning, why does Almora take his at-bat? Almora almost never hits against righties in those situations. Maddon has Happ, Schwarber, LaStella, and Avila available.
These playoff games have been nail-biters throughout, but besides the general inability of the Cubs to score runs, what stands out has been that each loss has hinged in one way or another on pitching decisions that Maddon has made that have turned sour.
In terms of the Dodgers, the Cubs match up quite well with them in terms of position players and their bench. There are only three real difference makers in the Dodgers lineup, Turner, Bellinger, and possibly Puig. Puig, though, is a flamboyant and undisciplined player rather like Baez, so you could make an argument either way there. Where the Dodgers excel, however, is with their pitching, especially the bullpen, which has been dominant so far against the Cubs. Still, this team should be doing a lot better. Despite both sides neutralizing their opponents starting pitching by running up the pitch counts, the Cubs have got to figure out a way to do the same thing with the Dodgers bullpen.
Saturday, October 14, 2017
NLCS Game 1
So the Cubs were outplayed today anyway though they managed to chase Kershaw after five innings. But here’s something I do not get. Why do you go to a bullpen that has been shaky throughout the playoffs when Quintana is pitching well and has a relatively low pitch count? No big deal to lose Game 1, but...
Friday, October 13, 2017
Bizzare
Anyway, what a competitive series. And the final game, what can you say? That was one of the most exciting and crazy games I've ever seen. In the end, the Cubs prevailed, mainly on the strength of a series of weird plays in the fifth and eighth inning and on sheer grit.
To begin with, Hendricks, who, on the whole, pitched well, had a bad second inning when, for some reason, he and Contreras thought the way to go was to throw high fastballs to the Washington hitters. The result was 4-1 deficit early, but Gio Gonzalez wasn't exactly the answer for the Nationals either. Gonzalez was wild and let the Cubs back in, leaving after three innings ahead only by a run.
The fifth inning turned things around in the Cubs favor. Scherzer was Dusty Baker's ace in the hole, but after getting two quick outs in relief to start the inning, the wheels came off for him. The Cubs got an infield single from Contreras and a bloop single from Zobrist. Addison Russell then smashed the first pitch down the left field line to give the Cubs a 5-4 lead. That's when things got weird and wild.
Heyward was intentionally walked. That brought up Javier Baez, who dutifully struck himself out on some wild swings. The last one, though, bounced through the catcher's legs. Baez's bat may have bonked Weiters mask on the follow-through, which would have made the play dead in Weiters mind, but nobody noticed. Everyone started running like crazy. Weiters retrieved the ball and proceeded to launch it into right field. Actually, the rule only applies when a runner is stealing a base, so Weiters and a number of commentators are wrong in giving him an out here.
In the end, Russell scored. That wasn't it. LaStella batted for Hendricks. With two strikes, Weiters, who was clearly having a bad night, touched LaStella's bat with his glove on a foul ball, leading to a call of catcher's interference. Scherzer then hit Jay with a pitch to force in a run.
To me, even though the Nationals clawed back to within a run, that was the game. It is impossible to over-estimate the emotional cost of playing your trump card and having it blow up in your face, especially as a result of a series of improbable events.
The last series instance of bizarro world happened in the midst of a Washington rally in the bottom of the eighth. Wade Davis had come in to rescue the Cubs from another Edwards-induced crisis. He struck out Zimmerman to end the seventh. In the eighth, however, he didn't have it. Actually, the only outs he recorded were a scorched double play grounder from Lind and the Contreras pickoff. Even though the Washington runner beat the throw to first and was out because his foot came off the base, you have to wonder why he was wandering around in no-man's-land with a huge secondary lead and Contreras catching.
That was it. Davis recovered his form in the ninth, striking out Harper on a 3-2 pitch to seal the victory.
My take-away from all this is the Cubs bats didn't so much come alive, but their indomitable will. Somehow, just as in the World Series last year, they found a way to win. They are a formidable team, to say the least.
As to who is going to pitch Game 1 of the NLCS, that seems to be anyone's guess. You have to assume anyone who pitched over the last two games is out, which means Lester, Hendricks, Arrieta, and probably Quintana. The same goes for Montgomery. Unless they think Quintana's short and ineffective appearance Thursday didn't ruin things for Saturday, you have to believe it will be Lackey.
To begin with, Hendricks, who, on the whole, pitched well, had a bad second inning when, for some reason, he and Contreras thought the way to go was to throw high fastballs to the Washington hitters. The result was 4-1 deficit early, but Gio Gonzalez wasn't exactly the answer for the Nationals either. Gonzalez was wild and let the Cubs back in, leaving after three innings ahead only by a run.
The fifth inning turned things around in the Cubs favor. Scherzer was Dusty Baker's ace in the hole, but after getting two quick outs in relief to start the inning, the wheels came off for him. The Cubs got an infield single from Contreras and a bloop single from Zobrist. Addison Russell then smashed the first pitch down the left field line to give the Cubs a 5-4 lead. That's when things got weird and wild.
Heyward was intentionally walked. That brought up Javier Baez, who dutifully struck himself out on some wild swings. The last one, though, bounced through the catcher's legs. Baez's bat may have bonked Weiters mask on the follow-through, which would have made the play dead in Weiters mind, but nobody noticed. Everyone started running like crazy. Weiters retrieved the ball and proceeded to launch it into right field. Actually, the rule only applies when a runner is stealing a base, so Weiters and a number of commentators are wrong in giving him an out here.
In the end, Russell scored. That wasn't it. LaStella batted for Hendricks. With two strikes, Weiters, who was clearly having a bad night, touched LaStella's bat with his glove on a foul ball, leading to a call of catcher's interference. Scherzer then hit Jay with a pitch to force in a run.
To me, even though the Nationals clawed back to within a run, that was the game. It is impossible to over-estimate the emotional cost of playing your trump card and having it blow up in your face, especially as a result of a series of improbable events.
The last series instance of bizarro world happened in the midst of a Washington rally in the bottom of the eighth. Wade Davis had come in to rescue the Cubs from another Edwards-induced crisis. He struck out Zimmerman to end the seventh. In the eighth, however, he didn't have it. Actually, the only outs he recorded were a scorched double play grounder from Lind and the Contreras pickoff. Even though the Washington runner beat the throw to first and was out because his foot came off the base, you have to wonder why he was wandering around in no-man's-land with a huge secondary lead and Contreras catching.
That was it. Davis recovered his form in the ninth, striking out Harper on a 3-2 pitch to seal the victory.
My take-away from all this is the Cubs bats didn't so much come alive, but their indomitable will. Somehow, just as in the World Series last year, they found a way to win. They are a formidable team, to say the least.
As to who is going to pitch Game 1 of the NLCS, that seems to be anyone's guess. You have to assume anyone who pitched over the last two games is out, which means Lester, Hendricks, Arrieta, and probably Quintana. The same goes for Montgomery. Unless they think Quintana's short and ineffective appearance Thursday didn't ruin things for Saturday, you have to believe it will be Lackey.
Wednesday, October 11, 2017
Maddon!
I have to say that a lot of prople have a problem with the way Maddon manages in the post-season and that today I have officially joined the club. I mean, I have no real problem removing Arrieta who was pitching bravely but not very well. I actually don’t have a problem bringing in Lester in relief. I kind of question replacing Lester with a man at first and two outs. Pitchers like Lester get out of trouble. That’s why they are paid. But replacing him with Edwards? Come on. Is Edwards the only guy in the bullpen? Isn’t Strop available?
The other thing is that Edwards blew Game 2 under similar circumstances. Furthermore, you can always tell when Edwards doesn’t have it because he is wild. One walk and that should be it. As it is, the Nats have had two competitive innings and have brought the series back to Washington. Unconscionable.
Hendricks goes Thursday night against either Gonzalez or Roark. Maddon has already telegraphed his intention to use Quintana if he is faced with an Arrieta-like situation. Which is fine were it not for his proclivity to take Hendricks out when he doesn’t have to do so. It also begs the question why Lackey is on the playoff roster if not to pitch long relief should one of the starters falter early.
The other thing is that Edwards blew Game 2 under similar circumstances. Furthermore, you can always tell when Edwards doesn’t have it because he is wild. One walk and that should be it. As it is, the Nats have had two competitive innings and have brought the series back to Washington. Unconscionable.
Hendricks goes Thursday night against either Gonzalez or Roark. Maddon has already telegraphed his intention to use Quintana if he is faced with an Arrieta-like situation. Which is fine were it not for his proclivity to take Hendricks out when he doesn’t have to do so. It also begs the question why Lackey is on the playoff roster if not to pitch long relief should one of the starters falter early.
Sunday, October 8, 2017
NLDS
I was all set to send the Cubs on to a sweep of the Nationals and the NLCS before the 8th inning yesterday. I still like their chances. First off, the idea is to split the away games in a short series. The Cubs have done this. Second, it’s not the first time they have suffered a bullpen meltdown and bounced back.
Until that fateful inning, the Cubs had played nearly flawless baseball. They can probably bounce back Monday against Washington. Anyway, returning home for two games gives them a considerable advantage.
As to the roster moves and bullpen setup, I had a still have doubts. Picking Lackey over Rondon was a surprise. It can only mean that there is not absolute confidence in Arrieta. Picking Martin over the same choice is also odd. The Cubs have a lot of good defensive choices in the outfield andvthe likelihood of using Martin to steal a base late is pretty remote.
Not having that extra short reliever showed up a little bit last night. I was surprised to see Edwards trotted out again for the 8th. Sure, he gets lefties out when he is on, but starting the inning with a right-handder more or less means Lind will pinch hit. Starting with a left-hander, knowing Baker’s proclivities, means he is on the bench and probably means Harper bats with no one on base. Later on, not having Rondon to use for one out means you have to either stick with Montgomery or bring on Davis early.
Until that fateful inning, the Cubs had played nearly flawless baseball. They can probably bounce back Monday against Washington. Anyway, returning home for two games gives them a considerable advantage.
As to the roster moves and bullpen setup, I had a still have doubts. Picking Lackey over Rondon was a surprise. It can only mean that there is not absolute confidence in Arrieta. Picking Martin over the same choice is also odd. The Cubs have a lot of good defensive choices in the outfield andvthe likelihood of using Martin to steal a base late is pretty remote.
Not having that extra short reliever showed up a little bit last night. I was surprised to see Edwards trotted out again for the 8th. Sure, he gets lefties out when he is on, but starting the inning with a right-handder more or less means Lind will pinch hit. Starting with a left-hander, knowing Baker’s proclivities, means he is on the bench and probably means Harper bats with no one on base. Later on, not having Rondon to use for one out means you have to either stick with Montgomery or bring on Davis early.
Sunday, October 1, 2017
Playoff Thoughts
So the season is over. A strange one based on expectations, but it is still the case that the Cubs and Indians have the best two records through the second half, which, of course, when pennants and championships are won or lost. There is also a certain advantage to playing the best baseball at the end of the season and to playing meaningful games late in the year. The Cubs have certainly done that.
After the Brewers swept the Cubs at home, the team won fifteen of the final nineteen games, going nine and two against their division rivals, eight of which games were on the road. They are coming into the NLDS as a hot team and a pretty healthy one with the exception of some questions about Jake Arrieta. The Nationals have their own issues with Max Scherzer whose injury may be minor or significant. The Nationals also have some concerns about Harper, though he looked good in the final game of the season.
The Cubs have some decisions to make with respect to their starting rotation, especially if Arrieta is still recovering from his injury. He was not sharp in his last start and the fact he skipped his scheduled Sunday start is of some concern. All in all, Hendricks has been the Cubs best pitcher in the second half and has certainly earned the opening game start. Apparently Maddon has narrowed the choice to Hendricks or Lester. I can understand picking Lester in view of his playoff experience and the fact the Nationals have a strong left-handed hitting lineup. However, Lester has been off most of the year and not too great in September. Unless Arrieta is especially impressive in his simulated game Wednesday, I kind of think Quintana gets the third game.
This is going to be a tough series, but I like the Cubs chances for all the reasons cited above. Also, this team is really deep at all the positions. They honestly have guys who could start on most teams relegated to the bench half the time at every spot. Few teams can match that kind of flexibility.
After the Brewers swept the Cubs at home, the team won fifteen of the final nineteen games, going nine and two against their division rivals, eight of which games were on the road. They are coming into the NLDS as a hot team and a pretty healthy one with the exception of some questions about Jake Arrieta. The Nationals have their own issues with Max Scherzer whose injury may be minor or significant. The Nationals also have some concerns about Harper, though he looked good in the final game of the season.
The Cubs have some decisions to make with respect to their starting rotation, especially if Arrieta is still recovering from his injury. He was not sharp in his last start and the fact he skipped his scheduled Sunday start is of some concern. All in all, Hendricks has been the Cubs best pitcher in the second half and has certainly earned the opening game start. Apparently Maddon has narrowed the choice to Hendricks or Lester. I can understand picking Lester in view of his playoff experience and the fact the Nationals have a strong left-handed hitting lineup. However, Lester has been off most of the year and not too great in September. Unless Arrieta is especially impressive in his simulated game Wednesday, I kind of think Quintana gets the third game.
This is going to be a tough series, but I like the Cubs chances for all the reasons cited above. Also, this team is really deep at all the positions. They honestly have guys who could start on most teams relegated to the bench half the time at every spot. Few teams can match that kind of flexibility.
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