Trade Speculation

Phil Rogers has an article forecasting potential trade targets for the Cubs this offseason, as well as potential trade candidates on the team.  None of them make much sense.  The targets are all pitchers: Archer, Stroman, Nola, Fulmer, and Manaea.  They are all reasonably good, not great or established arms, more in the way of #3 or #4 starters with the exception of Archer who might project as a #2.  They are all around 24 or 25 years old with again the exception of Archer who is 29.  Therein lies the problem with this sort of speculation.  These guys are all young and under favorable team control for a long time and they are all on teams that are in the process of a rebuild or should be.  So the truth is that none of these guys are going anywhere unless the return is more substantial than the Cubs are likely to offer.

In return, Rogers suggests the Cubs dangle Schwarber and/or Baez and/or Russell, possibly Happ.  the problem here is that Schwarber and Russell are coming off down years where their value has been downgraded.  Baez is, in my mind, completely overrated in terms of his achievement right now.  He has made progress, but he still has a ways to go.  Happ, I think, is a potential star.  I would hope the Cubs are not thinking about dealing him off for a second-tier pitcher unless they want to draw comparisons to the Lou Brock trade.

All this speculation completely ignores the pitchers of comparable value who are available on the free agent market, namely, Cobb, Lynn, and Chatwood.  These guys are just as good, reasonably young, and available for nothing.  Another aspect of this as well is that Epstein and Hoyer really haven't traded a player who had an established record with the major league team and a considerable fan following.  They have traded players of enormous potential who nobody had heard of, and, early on, players of some ability but no role in the future rebuild.