Taking Stock

The season is about 1/4 complete.  So far the Cubs have lacked consistency.  They've also had a lot of bad weather and postponements, including Thursday night's match against Atlanta.  You still have to like their chances, though.  If they can avoid stretches where they are in swing mode, such as Wednesday night, they will be in good shape.  In terms of talent, they are way above the level of any of their division rivals.

People, or rather sportswriters, are speculating on future moves.  A particularly weird trade scenario involves Manny Machado of the Orioles.  Word is the Cubs are all in for Machado, whatever that means.  Machado is certainly a terrific young player.  He is, however, a free agent next year, which, of course, makes him a rental.  Signing him in 2019, though not impossible, is going to cost something like $30MM a year and probably a six-year deal with all sorts of opt-outs.

The Orioles apparently want a lot for Machado.  The thing is the Cubs don't have much to give in terms of blue-chip minor league talent, which means, of course, you have to be willing to move a current starting player.  Speculation is that Russell is the minimum.  Russell is no Machado, but he is a really good shortstop and he is young as well.  I cannot see the team giving up on a player of his caliber who is under team control.  Also, the thing is that infielders are not the team's problem.  Offensively and defensively, the Cubs have one of the best infields in baseball, not to mention they have reserve infielders who could play every day on most teams in the league.

So this kind of deal makes very little sense.  Actually, most of the free agent speculation for 2019 for the Cubs is kind of iffy.  If they were to make a splash, it might be to go after Harper.  Even that means mortgaging the future, as they will likely have to spend big money to retain Bryant and Rizzo and Baez and Contreras in a couple of years.

If the Cubs need help around the trade deadline, it is going to be pitching, especially if Darvish doesn't return to form.  The biggest splash at the deadline is always pitching.  Witness Verlander's impact last year, as well as Darvish and Quintana in a smaller way.  Witness Andrew Miller's impact in 2016 as well as the Chapman deal the same year.  Dominant starters and relievers who can pitch more than an inning win in the post-season.  Not to mention that adding offense to a team that averages six runs a game is getting a little greedy.