A Tough Loss

Lester didn't have his best stuff, but I really think it is fair to say the Cubs were robbed by the review process in the 9th inning when Russell was ruled out at third base on an apparent RBI triple with no one out.  It is possible that he lost contact with the base for a nanosecond, although how that might constitute the clear proof required by the review process I fail to see.  Moreover, this entire interpretation of whether a runner is safe or out is pretty much against the spirit of the game.  In this case, the whole inning changed from having a runner at third and no outs to one out and nobody on base.  It also gave the Pirates pitcher, who was clearly on the ropes, a chance to regroup.

I'm not a big fan of the review process even when it goes in the Cubs favor.  I've got nothing against the review of close calls at first base or boundary calls, but these are pretty easy to determine.  At first base the runner has no problem going all out mainly because he is usually standing up and he just has to beat the throw.  Things get a lot more iffy when the runner leaves his feet and a tag is involved.  I'd also argue that these microscopic reviews rob the game of excitement and often force teams to play more conservatively.  Plays like the one tonight are rarer now and less exciting because of the interpretation of the current rule and also because the review process interrupts the flow of the game as well as introducing a delay.  You more or less know that a close play is going to result in a five or ten minute examination.  Sounds like sour grapes and maybe it is, but the game is being changed by some of these interpretations and not necessarily for the better.

On a more mundane matter, I more or less approve of the Cubs acquisitions.  I think Hamel is a big plus and Chavez has already had an impact.  Kintzler may not be a household word, but he is a solid reliever.  I'm kind of curious as to who is sent down to Iowa or released to make room for Kintzler.  Rosario has options remaining, but he has pitched pretty well.  Duensing is obviously the worst pitcher in the bullpen, but, of course, he is a veteran with a year left on his contract. Perhaps he will be released anyway or DFAed unless he develops a sudden ailment.  He's actually pitching right now like a guy who is hurt.

The Rizzo Experiment

So, first off, the Cubs have split the first 12 games after the All-Star break.  They have played tough opponents who are fighting for playoff survival, so that's not too bad.  Of concern has been the starting pitching which, to a certain extent, the Cubs have tried to remedy with the Hamels trade.  On this topic, I think it was a good deal.  They traded off a Class A minor leaguer of some promise and Eddie Butler, a guy the Cubs had pretty much determined to have a low ceiling.  Hamels is not a bad bet.  His peripherals look good.  He was completely unsuited to pitching in Texas.  I kind of doubt they are going to make a big splash on a reliever.  The big guns are gone and they are unlikely to overpay for a lesser arm.

I'm not really all that worried about the pitching.  Hendricks was superb Sunday night and I think Quintana will bounce back.  Lester is the ace.  Montgomery is a pretty good #5, which leaves Hamels as the wild card.  Getting a good Darvish back and a healthy Morrow would be icing on the cake.

My real concern is the offense.  It has been inconsistent even though they lead the league in runs scored.  Which brings up the whole Rizzo thing and kind of illustrates a reason for concern in a roundabout way.

Rizzo has played 16 games at leadoff.  I think the Cubs are 9-7 in that stretch.  He has 60 ABs and 72 plate appearances.  His 24 hits make him a .400 hitter in that spot.  He has been on base 40 times, which is nothing short of spectacular.  However, he has scored only 9 runs, 4 of them on home runs he has hit.  That means that players batting below him in the lineup have driven him in only 5 times.

Now there is no doubt that the Cubs miss Bryant a lot and the nagging injury to Russell also hurts.  However, Baez has been hot as a pistol during this stretch, so the problem must be with Maddon's batting order.  I think it is really the placement of Heyward and Almora, who have been batting 3rd and 2nd respectively.  I've got no problem with Heyward hitting second or even leading off, even though in an ideal world he would hit lower down, but Almora is just not a guy who has the experience and poise to bat second.  When Zobrist plays and bats second, good things happen.

One cannot argue with success in Rizzo's case, but in my mind batting him first really serves to take away some of the RBI pressure he feels.  So it has allowed him to straighten himself out in terms of his approach.  Also, he seems to see the most exaggerated shifts a bit less leading off.  The shifts have really hurt him offensively this year.  I still think of him as a power-hitter RBI player with good plate discipline.  Maybe I am a traditionalist, but a player with these skills bats third or fourth.

Strange Game

It looked as if the Cubs and Madden had conceded this one from the start. First off, Luke Farrell is at best a mediocre journeyman middle reliever, not a starter. So 5 runs in the 1st not unexpected. The oddest thing was not really using real pitchers but position players to finish off the game, although that was weird. The oddest thing was the lineup which featured all right-handed hitters with the exception of Rizzo leading off. Corbin has reverse splits with lefties enjoying nearly a 100 point BA advantage as opposed to righties. Go figure.

Trade Talk

Some of the bigger trade chips are finding a home. I was glad to see that Machado and Hand were involved in trades thatvdid not includevthe Cubs. Machado because the Cubs obviously didn’t need him, Hand because he would have cost the Cubs an everyday player.

Instead the Cubs have picked up Jesse Chavez from the Rangers. Nothing special here. Chavez is a journeyman reliever who will likely pitch in middle innings long relief. Given the propensity of Cubs starters to pitch only into the 5th inning, this is a need.  Chavez is a preferred alternative to some of the AAA shuttles currently filling that role.

I look for the Cubs to add a left-handed reliever, either Conley from the Marlins or possibly Britton from the Orioles if the talent cost is not too high. Unlikely they are going to disturb the big league roster or even trade away Bote.

Below is a link to possible scenarios:

https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2018/7/20/17593838/cubs-trade-rumors-scenarios-part-2-lefthanded-relievers

All-Star Assessment

No matter the outcome of today’s game, the Cubs will be in first place in the division. They will likely also have the best percentage in the NL. They have accomplished this behind inconsistent starting pitching excepting Lester, several bullpen injuries, and a notable lack of reliable production from their two biggest stars, Rizzo and Bryant. Their major off-season acquisitions, Darvish and Chatwood, have been complete busts. 

On the other hand, one always expected improvement from the younger players. In this respect, Baez has been an absolute revelation. Play of this caliber from him was unexpected. Russell and Contreras have been really good, as have Almora and Scwarber and Happ. Totally unexpected has been the resurgence of Zobrist and Heyward , who looked ready for the scrapheap in spring training.

So the deal is this team is really good and likely to remain so for quite a while. I can see where they are unwilling to spend any chips from the current roster at the  deadline.  They will likely try to strengthen the putching staff, either with a spot starter rental or an additional bullpen arm. Most likely the latter. They have been lucky so far to have their relievers hold up and perform creditably. Long run they cannot sustain that level when asked to get 10 or 12 outs a game. Hendricks and Quintana look like they are going to provide longer starts through the second half, but some reinforcements may be needed to carry the team through August. 

Look for the Cubs to make some modest move along these lines after the break.  They probably don’t have the farm system to get a stopper like Hand, but there are relievers above the journeyman class that can help.