The Rizzo Experiment

So, first off, the Cubs have split the first 12 games after the All-Star break.  They have played tough opponents who are fighting for playoff survival, so that's not too bad.  Of concern has been the starting pitching which, to a certain extent, the Cubs have tried to remedy with the Hamels trade.  On this topic, I think it was a good deal.  They traded off a Class A minor leaguer of some promise and Eddie Butler, a guy the Cubs had pretty much determined to have a low ceiling.  Hamels is not a bad bet.  His peripherals look good.  He was completely unsuited to pitching in Texas.  I kind of doubt they are going to make a big splash on a reliever.  The big guns are gone and they are unlikely to overpay for a lesser arm.

I'm not really all that worried about the pitching.  Hendricks was superb Sunday night and I think Quintana will bounce back.  Lester is the ace.  Montgomery is a pretty good #5, which leaves Hamels as the wild card.  Getting a good Darvish back and a healthy Morrow would be icing on the cake.

My real concern is the offense.  It has been inconsistent even though they lead the league in runs scored.  Which brings up the whole Rizzo thing and kind of illustrates a reason for concern in a roundabout way.

Rizzo has played 16 games at leadoff.  I think the Cubs are 9-7 in that stretch.  He has 60 ABs and 72 plate appearances.  His 24 hits make him a .400 hitter in that spot.  He has been on base 40 times, which is nothing short of spectacular.  However, he has scored only 9 runs, 4 of them on home runs he has hit.  That means that players batting below him in the lineup have driven him in only 5 times.

Now there is no doubt that the Cubs miss Bryant a lot and the nagging injury to Russell also hurts.  However, Baez has been hot as a pistol during this stretch, so the problem must be with Maddon's batting order.  I think it is really the placement of Heyward and Almora, who have been batting 3rd and 2nd respectively.  I've got no problem with Heyward hitting second or even leading off, even though in an ideal world he would hit lower down, but Almora is just not a guy who has the experience and poise to bat second.  When Zobrist plays and bats second, good things happen.

One cannot argue with success in Rizzo's case, but in my mind batting him first really serves to take away some of the RBI pressure he feels.  So it has allowed him to straighten himself out in terms of his approach.  Also, he seems to see the most exaggerated shifts a bit less leading off.  The shifts have really hurt him offensively this year.  I still think of him as a power-hitter RBI player with good plate discipline.  Maybe I am a traditionalist, but a player with these skills bats third or fourth.