Reds Series

The Cubs wound up splitting the four game set with Cincinnati.  I don't think they played especially well.  They showed a lot of grit winning the extra-inning game Tuesday night and coming back from five runs down to win the nightcap last night.  They had a winning road trip in any case.

The Cubs have not been playing that impressively over the last month or so despite getting really good, with a couple of exceptions, starting pitching and super relief pitching except for, again, a couple of blowups, mainly by Strop.  This is mainly because, despite grinding out at-bats, they are just not scoring runs.  They have a good stretch of games against weak opponents coming up, so the opportunity exists to make up some ground.  The Cardinals and the Pirates are treading water right now, so the chance to make a run does exist.

On the positive side, Kyle Schwarber has certainly impressed, at least as a hitter.  It makes you wonder whether Montero might become the next Wally Pipp.  The Cubs plan to play Schwarber a little in left field as well as continuing his education as a catcher.  You have to figure that with the timetable for Montero's return stretching into late August at best that the kid has probably seen the last of the minor leagues.

There is quite a lot of speculation about trade deadline moves.  The latest focuses on Cole Hamels, who, as I have stated on multiple occasions, makes a lot of sense.  He is a premier starter who is under contract for three more seasons as well as an option year.  He is expensive, but the Cubs can afford it.  David Price is probably the best pitcher who may come on the market, but he is a rental.  If the Cubs cannot get Hamels, I would expect them to pick up a fairly ordinary arm to give them some assurance should Wada not recover from his injuries and hope for the best.  Price will be available on the free agent market after the season is over.

The other rentals - Cueto, Leake, Samardzija, etc. - are good players, but the question is anyone you acquire will only start ten or twelve games.  So figure they go 7-3 or something like that in those games, best case.  I haven't computed the team's record when the fifth starter pitches, but the difference in the likelihood of winning is probably on the order of three or four games at best.  The question then becomes whether it is worth a good prospect for the chance to make it to a one-game playoff that you might reach anyway without the trade.

I do, however, think the Cubs need to bolster the bench some way or other.  In particular, I don't think they can compete through the month of August with thirteen pitchers and three catchers.  Last night's second game was a good example of the trouble they are in with this configuration.  Maddon had to use the Taylor Teagarden against Aroldis Chapman to pinch hit for the pitcher in the eighth inning with the game on the line.  Sure, Teagarden delivered the winning hit, but how often is that going to happen?

Braves Series - Jackson Gone

The Cubs played good ball in Atlanta and emerged from the series winning two games of the three.  They might have swept were it not for Pedro Strop's breakdown in the eighth inning of game one, his second blowup in as many tries.  I have to admit that I cringed in Sunday's game when Strop came out for the eighth inning again, though he somehow worked through it despite a bad beginning.

Maddon is a little stubborn in his bullpen decisions.  Especially with the addition of Soriano, the Cubs have a wealth of choices late in the game and things are improving a lot with their top four guys going deep into the game.  They can afford a little more flexibility in assigning these roles and going more often with the hot hand, which, right now, is not Strop.

The Cubs are still not scoring enough runs, but they did manage four in the last two games against the Braves, which was enough to win.  They are still seeing a lot of pitches and driving up pitch counts.  Lately, however, they have been getting a little antsy with two strikes, which has resulted in a lot of outs and a declining on-base percentage.

I'm not sure what the solution is.  Minimizing Castro's role is one key.  He is having an horrendous year and needs to be moved or somehow straightened out.

Which kind of leads to what the Cubs are going to do at the deadline to improve.  I do not think they need to do much with their pitching.  Sure, a reliable fifth starter would be a nice addition, but unless they can pick up a veteran rental cheap, I do not think they are going this direction.

One reason they are not scoring is the bench.  Getting rid of Jackson frees up a spot, but, at least initially, they have chosen to promote Soriano.  I haven't seen the final word on Montero yet, but the first prognosis was pretty dire.  The Cubs are kind of back to square one with Montero out, in that they are carrying thirteen pitchers and three catchers.  That leaves only nine spots for the rest of the team, which is pretty limiting given that Denorfia and Coghlan platoon in left.  That means you have only one utility player, Herrera.

In my mind, the Cubs have to move another pitcher and demote Teagarden if Schwarber hangs on.  That frees up two spots which can be filled from the minors or via a trade.  Zobrist makes a lot of sense on the trade front, as does Parra for a left-handed outfielder.

I wonder if the Cubs would ever think of transitioning Baez into a super-sub role as a way of working him into the scheme.  He can play second, short, and third, and probably left field with some practice.  Maybe they see if he is real by doing something like this, giving him four starts a week to protect him at this stage of his career.  Although he strikes out a lot, he might be better than Castro if he could hit .250 with some pop.

Crosstown Series

The Cubs won only one game of the three game set with the White Sox, although they should have won the first game as well.  Five double plays in that game did not help.  Castro, incidentally, has become a double play machine.

Lester continues to disappoint.  Hendricks and Arrieta continue to impress.  Arrieta is undoubtedly the team ace right now and would be the choice to pitch should the Cubs wind up in a one-game wild card playoff.  Hammel looks like he is OK and will not have to visit the DL.  I would like to see the Cubs take a shot at a legitimate starting pitcher at the deadline, but the reality is they can likely make the playoffs without one.  I still think they are not going to risk trading a big chip if they can avoid it.

Of more concern is the hitting.  The absence of Soler clearly hurt them, but, although Soler is having good at-bats since his return, the team is still not scoring runs.  This is very frustrating, as the pitching, even with all the flux at the fifth starter slot, has been exceptionally good.  Maddon is right in describing them as a swing-and-miss team.  They are grinding out at-bats and getting pitch counts up, but they are still striking out too often.

I haven't seen anything definitive on Ross or Montero, both of whom are considered day-to-day.  I'm assuming that if Montero does not have to go on the DL, the team will continue with Teagarden as the backup until Ross returns.  If Montero is disabled, the Cubs are in big trouble even if Ross returns.  They might be thinking of bringing up Schwarber in that eventuality.  Schwarber can probably give a pretty good accounting of himself as a hitter, but he will be challenged defensively and as a handler of pitchers.

The most pressing need the Cubs have right now is to start scoring some runs.  Looking at their lineup, aside from inexperience, the weakest spot is shortstop where Castro is not producing at all.  Castro's performance is another reason why the Cubs are unlikely to be all-in for a proven starter at the trade deadline unless they have really given up entirely on Baez as a major league hitter.

The most likely moves might just be strengthening the bench, which is really not much to write home about now and is costing them runs when they have to pinch hit early.  To do this, I rather think they need to move Jackson even if they have to pay most of his salary.  Lets face it, they only use this guy when the game is lost, so what good is he really doing anyone.  That actually frees up a bench spot, so the Cubs could pick up a veteran outfield bat, preferably a left-handed hitter, and bring up somebody from AAA, maybe even Baez for a shot when he is available, sending Baxter back to the minors in the process.

A Difficult Loss

The Cubs might have won three of four from the Cards but for one really awful pitch.  Maddon was pretty positive after the game and there was indeed a lot to like about the Cubs overcoming the loss of their starting pitcher and coming back to take the lead.  I thought for a while they might have finally got under the Cardinals skin when Molina just ignored the play when Montero got the bases loaded double and started arguing the previous pitch call.  That was really bush league in my opinion and if the league doesn't fine him, his team should do so.  The truth is the umpire was squeezing everybody all night long and it did have an effect on the game.  So?

As for the Cubs, there was a lot to like about their performance.  On the critical side, when are they going to figure out that Castro is a rally killer and stop batting him fourth or fifth in the lineup?  Right now, the Cubs have Rizzo, Bryant, and Soler hitting in front of him, so there are always runners on base and he has been an almost certain out in these situations.  Castro is 2 for 23 on the home stand.  He stranded five base-runners.  Enough already.

Also, again on the critical side, some pitchers can handle the ninth inning and some cannot.  Strop, I think, cannot.  I'm not sure what it is, but he can give you two quick outs as he did last night and then just fall apart and start over-throwing.  One thing is his slider is his best out pitch, so he should never throw his fastball in the zone with two strikes as he did last night to lose the game.

Something I Do Not Like to See

Joe Maddon was full of defense for his team's play in Game 1 of the Cardinals series.  He's right that the Cubs had a bad ninth inning and otherwise played pretty well.  But aside from not scoring runs or even threatening to score runs most of the time, the thing I did not like at all was putting in Jackson to pitch the ninth inning.  I know that in calculating the odds, Maddon must have figured that going up against Rosenthal in the bottom of the ninth was unlikely to result in a win down two runs and he had to figure he had a double-header coming up the next day.  But, look, you have to try to stay competitive and putting in Jackson strikes me as giving up, period.

Actually, the fact that Jackson is still on this team strikes me as pretty awful.  The Cubs only use him in lost games and really he takes up a spot that might be occupied by another bench player.  Supposedly the Cubs are looking for a really good starting pitcher and a left-handed hitting outfielder who is not Mike Baxter.  That's fine.  I continue to suppose they will not empty the vault for a pitcher like Hamels or Sale this year for reasons I outlined in an earlier post.  However, they ought to be able to unload or release Jackson and pick up a veteran substitute or too pretty cheap and these guys would help out a lot in the pinch.

Lester pitched really well again.  He is pitching in tough luck lately, but I have to say some of it is of his own making.  I don't remember him being this bad at holding runners when he was in the American League.  Somebody has got to teach him to throw to first every now and again or have the catcher do it because when Lester pitches against a smart team like the Cardinals every walk or single or safe on an error is the equivalent of a double and they are going to score runs even on shallow hits because by the time the ball is delivered they are half-way to the next base.  Right now the Cubs are not scoring runs or even threatening when they face half-decent pitching, so that has got to cost wins in the long run.

Just to finish off this little critique, I have now come to the conclusion the Cubs cannot win consistently with Starlin Castro in the lineup.  Lets face it, he may come up with a clutch hit every now and again, but he is a .250 hitter who does not get on base much and is inconsistent in the field.  I have a feeling Castro is going to be part of any package they swing before the trade deadline, though given his stats this year, he is not going to bring a big return.

Cubs, Fireworks

The Cubs won nicely to celebrate the July 4th holiday in kind of a laugher.  They scored seven runs in the first two innings, six on the strength of two Bryant home runs, the second a grand slam.  Lost in the shuffle, though, was the realization the team did not have a single baserunner the remainder of the game with the exception of a HBP for Rizzo in the fifth inning.

Clayton Richard was pretty impressive in his Cubs and season debut.  He pitched into the seventh inning.  The Marlins touched him for eight hits, but they were swinging at everything and some of the hits were just grounders that no one could reach.  Richard is a nice pickup for the Cubs.  He was a pretty decent middle or back of the rotation starter for the Padres until he experienced shoulder issues in 2013.  I think he won 14 games for San Diego on two occasions when they were not exactly world-beaters and ran up a lot of innings in the process.

I kind of wonder whether his acquisition and some of Epstein's remarks don't indicate that the Cubs are not going to be major buyers, at least in the pitching market and maybe all around nearing the trade deadline.  The thinking Epstein expressed seemed to be along the lines that no one is likely to catch the Cardinals or if someone does, it will not be because of any combination of pickups that will make up eight or nine games.  So that means the Cubs and several other teams are playing to make a one-game playoff for the wild card spot.  In that case, they have the money pitcher or pitchers to win that game, and, for the matter, enough pitching to get them into the NLCS.  The thinking then is why spend a lot of the prospects you are developing to get another ace pitcher or a bench guy unless that guy is worth four or five wins down the stretch.

The fireworks were nice.  Also, I'm getting used to the scoreboard.  The crowd was good as well, although why a bunch of people started chanting USA in the top of the ninth when Strop was closing out the game, I cannot fathom.  There were, however, no attempts to initiate a wave, which was a big plus.

The picture above is Kris Bryant coming to bat in the fifth inning with Rizzo at first, not, unfortunately, him prior to either of the home runs.  The picture below is, obviously, a shot of the fireworks.

Two Straight Wins on 3 Runs Total

The Cubs must be living right or else the Mets are not.  Whatever the case, the epic confrontation between two of the coldest offenses in baseball right now has thus far swung in the Cubs favor.  Actually, the Mets have been shut out for twenty innings by the Cubs and I think they were on a scoreless streak before the Cubs came to town.  Tonight's game was exciting down to the wire, mainly because of the various base-running blunders by both sides, as well as some curious plays like Rizzo's magic slide.

People have been critical of Bryant's gaffe on the Coghlan hit.  He should have picked up the coach.  But then again, he probably assumed Rizzo would be sent on the play.  Stopping him was an eccentric move on the Cubs part.  Worst case scenario, he is out at home and the Cubs have men at second and third.  Actually, the throw was off-line, which is why the Mets cutoff guy was able to catch Bryant in the first place.  If Rizzo is running and the throw is still caught, then Bryant draws the play and assures the Cubs scoring one run.  In any case, the whole controversy became moot when Castro was able to beat out a roller to score what became the winning run.

The rumor mill is full of stuff about the Cubs and Mets swapping needs, hitting for pitching I guess.  Personally, I do not think the teams match up all that well.  Based on their recent meetings, neither team is exactly hitting the cover off the ball.  The Mets are still in contention and they need real help right now to stay there, which is not something the Cubs are likely to surrender for second line pitching.  The Cubs are most likely willing to surrender AAA and AA prospects for a veteran starter, but none of these guys are going to step in and lift a team like the Mets.  Actually, the Mets are a pretty mediocre team that is only still hanging around because they had a ten game winning streak early in the year.  Since then, they have been pretty bad despite their solid pitching.

The Cubs match up a lot better with teams that are out of it and need a rebuild like the Phillies or the A's, for example, maybe even the White Sox.  The Cubs might be able to pry a decent veteran starter from teams like that for AAA and AA players who have shown promise, guys like Vogelbach or Villanueva.  Baez still might buy them better players in a package deal.  I don't think the Cubs are prepared to part with any of the players on the current roster who are any good with the possible exception of Castro, in which case they would need to be certain they had someone to step in and play second base or shortstop in his absence.

On the plus side, the Cubs have picked up two of the games they dropped in the standings at St. Louis, as the Cards unaccountably dropped two straight to the lowly White Sox.