Well, they're finally in Arizona, at least the pitchers and catchers and some early bird position players. Lots of news coming in, much of it invented, some good, some not so good.
Theriot has lost his arbitration, but he still gets a good raise. His future is at 2B if Castro lives up to anywhere near the minor league hype. Unfortunately, owing to Jim Hendry's penchant for collecting second basemen, there is rather a logjam there, so someone will have to go. More about this in a subsequent post.
I thought I would use this post to assess the Cubs pitching and to more or less try to predict what the opening day roster will look like.
Pitching really is the Cubs' strength and last year it carried the team at least to a second place finish in the division, especially when you consider they hardly ever scored runs. Even with the loss of Harden to free agency, they are in good shape, as his contribution was not very significant.
Long term, the rotation will be Zambrano, Dempster, Wells, Lilly, and one of a group of four contenders for the fifth slot, viz., Marshall, Gorzelanny, Silva, and Samardzja. With Lilly out for the first month or so, two of these guys are likely to get some starts. Unless there are some surprises, my money would have to be on Gorzelanny and Marshall, with one of them moving to the bullpen when Lilly returns. Just as an aside, Lilly suffered an apparently minor setback the first time he attempted to throw, so there is no guarantee he will return on the accelerated schedule that has been laid out for him. Still, I'm not unhappy with these two lefties having a chance to fill in and I think they will acquit themselves pretty well.
As I've noted before, Samardzja has good stuff, but he needs to develop his off-speed pitches and he needs to learn how to pitch. The Cubs have a lot invested in him, but so far they have managed this investment poorly. He's clearly not been ready to pitch in the major leagues, and bouncing him up and down and from starter to reliever just erodes his confidence and needlessly uses up his options. If anybody is likely to benefit from Gred Maddux's tutelage, it is Samardzja, and that means he starts out in the minors and stays there until he is ready to move into the rotation full-time.
Silva is another proposition altogether. He is making big money, but he has not been an effective pitcher since 2007. In a fair world, he would not make the team. Unless by some inexplicable reversal of fortune he turns it all around in spring training, the Cubs will face one of three alternatives with this guy. First off, just release him, something the Cubs are unlikely to do because it means eating a big contract. Second, find some way to showcase him and hope to trade him away. This probably means virtually forfeiting several games and eating a big hunk of salary anyway. Third, make up some sort of injury and keep him on injured reserve, which is essentially what the Mariners did last year. None of these are very palatable alternatives, but, frankly, this is another albatross on the Cubs' roster who takes up a spot that could be occupied by a productive player.
I'll talk about the bullpen in my next post.
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