Lest we forget though, the Cubs put together quite a nice run last year right after the All-Star break only to fizzle in August. Can they come back? It's possible. They are playing now the way fans expected them to play, which is to say they will have games where they will just blow people out and games where their pitching will keep them in it and they will need a clutch hit or a little luck. I expected them to contend despite their obvious weaknesses. There are 69 games left. If the Cubs win two of three they will come out at 88 wins, good enough to contend in their division. Maybe good enough to win. If the Cards play at the same percentage as they currently hold, the Cubs will come up a game or two short. Still a chance there, but it all depends on playing .667 ball or better through the remainder of the year.
Should the Cubs sell? I think so. There are die-hard fans who will be deceived by any kind of consistent run through the end of July, but there are some clear weaknesses on this team and there is the odd chance they can be addressed by some judicious moves. The two biggest weaknesses are in management, namely Hendry and especially Lou. These are likely to be deferred to season's end.
Anyway, the biggest weaknesses as I see them are the bullpen, their lack of balance, and defense. These factors create problems for a team whose main strength is the depth and quality of their starting pitching. I'm not sure the bullpen is as big an issue as it it made out to be, but Lou clearly has confidence only in Marshall and Marmol and seems to be trying to develop Cashner into a pitcher that maybe he is not, much as he tried to mold Samardzija in 2008 and 2009. The Cubs weakest starter is clearly Ted Lilly. He is in the last year of his contract. He is getting old and he makes a lot of money. So save some cash and maybe get a prospect or two in return. He is likely a Type A free agent who should therefore bring the talent equivalent of a late first or early second round pick. The obvious move then is to move Zambrano back into the rotation. You have to face facts. You are not going to contend unless your opening day starter who has two plus years left on a $91 million contract produces and you are not going to shed any part of this contract unless he shows enough ability to tempt another team, so roll the dice.
The same thing goes for Lee. The Cubs have no obvious replacement unless they move Colvin to 1B, but Lee is a net negative for this club. He's still hitting in the .230s and it's time to face facts that this is not going to get better. He will have good games when he gets fast balls because he is hitting in front of a resurgent Ramirez with men on base, but he's not going to regain his previous skills. He is also playing like a guy who is hurt in the field, and he is another right-hander. Long and short term, this is a spot for a left-handed hitter and they need to acquire or develop one. If they trade Lee, I don't see why Hoffpauir or LaHair can't give you the same level of production batting from the left side. I mean, we are not talking about much more than hitting .250 and 8 or 10 HRs. LaHair is actually having a pretty good year at AAA the last time I looked.
Dumping Nady goes without saying, but the real guy who might be approaching some level of trade value if the Cubs are brave and the guy with the worst contract is Soriano. His numbers look good to the unobservant. Unless you are going to bite the bullet and do the statistically sound thing and platoon him with Fukudome, get rid of him and pay half his salary forever if you need to do so.
Last night was a great example of why he needs to go. Yeah, he hit a HR when the Cubs were already way ahead and he got a lucky bloop single, but, had the game not been a laugher, he made two key mistakes that might have cost the team dearly. On one, although everybody in the park is pointing to 2B, he came up with a routing single and fired past the third baseman, allowing the batter to advance to 2B and taking the team out of a DP situation. Then he stupidly tried to go first to third on a single and was thrown out by ten feet. This is just a really dumb guy who has no baseball instincts at all.
Theriot is the other guy who is becoming painful to watch. At least Lou has dropped him in the order yesterday, but watch for him to back up top against a lefty. Theriot is a certain out nowadays and a quick one at that. If there is a market for this player, trade him now. They can easily get by with the Fontenot/Baker platoon, and, of course, it is a net plus because it adds a left-handed bat.
The most important stretch of the schedule is coming up. They need to sweep Houston and take at least three of four against the Cardinals. They are playing well now for a change. This week will make or break them as a team.
Mr Ivy: You will continue to praise and defend Fuko and the Z Monster till the Ivy has turned brown. These are the 2 that need to be dumped, if possible, along with Nady, Lilly, Lee, and The Riot, and Howry, our resident batting practice pitcher.
ReplyDeleteI can't believe Ricketts just sits on his keester and says and does nothing to assuage our tormented Cub Fans.
Your pal, Mr Beagleman
Actually, I have only suggested trading guys, with the exception of Soriano, for whom there is a market, and by playing Soriano, it is just vaguely possible that there is a market for him in the AL if the Cubs are willing to eat some salary. There is no market for Zambrano or Fukudome unless you create one and you cannot create a market unless you use them in roles in which they stand a reasonable chance of succeeding. Besides, you cannot trade the whole team, can you?
ReplyDeleteSoriano is batting .254 against left-handers this year. Fukudome has had much better success against right-handers the past two seasons than against left-handers, so why not platoon him with Soriano. He does get on base and he can catch as well. Actually, in 2008, the only year he batted a statistically significant number of times against lefties, he had a better average and OBP against them than he did against righties. You can look it up.
I don't argue that he is worth his salary, just that he isn't as bad a player as fans are fond of imagining and his lack of success in the middle of the season is not the reason the Cubs consistently lose games.
The same argument applies to Zambrano, who has two more years left on a much larger contract. He has, despite his outbursts, been a successful starting pitcher for 7.5 seasons before this year. Nobody complained in 2007 when he beat up Michael Barrett because he won 18 games and the Cubs won the division. You are not going anywhere this year anyway, so if you trade Lilly, who else is going to start? He will either straighten himself out or flop. If he succeeds, you have a dominant starter. If he fails, you are no worse off than before.