Bruce Levine writes on ESPN that given the Cubs flat payroll, they may be more likely to trade for a top-tier first baseman in the off-season. He thinks Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres is a likely target.
In yesterday's blog, I considered this possibility and talked about some of the issues connected with this approach. Gonzalez is a premier player. At his position, he is in a class with Texeira and Pujols. In short, he is a real difference maker, an instant franchise upgrade, and certainly a player that a major market team that the Cubs aspire to be should be going after.
Having said that, however, I just don't see this happening, at least not in the off-season. Nor do I see how this is a low-cost option. Nor do I really see how the Cubs match up with the Padres needs in terms of the personnel they have to offer.
First off, how does this save the Cubs money? Gonzalez makes $6 million now and is worth $15-$20 million per year in a four-year deal on the free agent market. He's certainly worth it. He is 29, so he likely has at least four good years left to whoever signs him. But that doesn't make him a bargain, does it? I mean, you are going to have to pay that money and to guarantee your investment, you are going to have to do it now, this year, in terms of an extension, and you are going to have to be sure you can negotiate that extension before you pull the trigger on the deal. The Cubs should be willing to spend this money and they actually could do so from the savings they accrued from trading Lilly and Lee and letting Nady walk. But lets not pretend this is a savings.
Also, even Levine mentions that the price in terms of players is three or four good prospects. I'd assume that at least one and probably more need to be major league ready. The Padres real need is hitting, and they are trading their best hitter, so you have to figure all or nearly all are going to have to be position players.
Do the Cubs have this kind of material to spare? The Cubs have a bunch of veteran bats who may or may not be an improvement over what the Padres have. I'm talking about Soriano and Byrd and Fukudome, but how do these guys appeal to the Padres? Each one of them earns twice as much as Gonzalez does now. And lets face it, hitting isn't exactly the Cubs long suit anyway.
Of course, half the Padres lineup filed for free agency, so their needs are many. The Cubs could offer Colvin in return and maybe one of their two catching prospects, Chirinos or Castillo. However, the Padres are easing Nick Hundley into a full-time starting role, so they are likely to be looking for a veteran backup.
After that, it is slim pickings, at least among players the Cubs consider top prospects or young players who have already made their mark. They are not likely to want to move Castro or Brett Jackson or even Brandan Guyer, nor should they consider it, and they probably shouldn't think about moving Chris Archer either. Maybe they could throw in Josh Vitters, although one of the few other positions where the Padres seem set is third base.
Cudos to Hendry if he can pull this off even if it costs him Colvin and one of the catchers, but I've got my doubts it can be done.
No comments:
Post a Comment