Nick Johnson?

Everyone pretty much agrees the Cubs need a left-handed hitting first baseman if they are to contend in 2011, or even if they are going to play decent baseball for a change. The Cubs don't have a minor league prospect waiting in the wings. Xavier Nady, who finished out the season more or less as the last man standing, showed he could not hit for the kind of average or power you expect from this position and is likely headed out the door as a free agent. So it's not surprising the papers and blogs are full of speculation about who the Cubs might show interest in signing.

One rumor, from the Sun-Times has it that Jim Hendry is looking for a low-ball option like Nick Johnson. Johnson was never what you would call a bad player, but neither would he be considered a star. He is one of the most patient hitters in the major leagues, something the Cubs could surely use, but he has only doubles power and he is an indifferent fielder at best. Plus he is coming off two seasons where serious injuries drastically limited his playing time, and, like Nady before him, there are legitimate doubts that he has fully recovered.

Of course, Hendry loves this kind of player. He's a cheap acquisition and you might just get lucky. More likely you will wind up with the second coming of Cliff Floyd or Xavier Nady. Were the Cubs to settle on a guy like Johnson, it would tell you two things about the their plans. One is they don't think they are serious contenders next season. That judgment, in itself, is wrong-headed. The Cubs play in a weak division and there is every reason to believe they can be contenders next year if they make the right off-season moves. Arguably, they fielded worse teams in 2002 and 2006 and went on to win divisions the following years. For a GM of a major market team to think this way is always a bad thing.

Anyway, the second thing it tells you is that the team is treading water for no apparent reason. Signing a stopgap is OK if you are waiting for a major prospect to mature, but, as we noted above, there is no apparent prospect to await. Unless you intend to bypass the 2011 free agent market in favor of 2012 when Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez become available.

The problem here is that moving either of these players is basically a budget cutting decision for their current teams. Neither the Brewers nor the Padres think they can afford to sign them to extensions or new contracts when they hit free agency, so they are likely going to want to get something in return before that happens.

The Brewers can't be under any illusions that they are genuine contenders next year or are likely to be contenders before the trade deadline, so theoretically they might be looking for the best deal they can get now, especially if it involves good pitching. But I seriously doubt that either the Cubs or the Brewers are likely to swing a major deal in their own division, so I would have to assume the Cubs likely target would be Gonzalez.

Gonzalez would be a terrific acquisition, one of the best position players to hit the market in years. There is no real reason for the Padres to deal him now because they were serious contenders last year and he is a bargain for them at the $6 million or so he currently earns. They'd have to fill several holes to trade him now and they need cheap hitters. The Cubs have expensive "hitters" to trade and cheap young hitters they need time to evaluate. It's also possible the Padres will contend again next season as they did last, in which case they might choose not to market Gonzalez at the trade deadline.

So the bottom line on these strategies is they are rather iffy propositions and expensive ones as well, both in terms of the quality of personnel you'd need to give in exchange and the kind of money you would need to commit to renegotiate their contracts before free agency to keep them around and make your investment worthwhile. If the Cubs are playing this game, they had better have a pretty fair idea of what it would cost them in both respects and whether they are prepared to pay the price, or they had better be certain these guys will be available on the free agent market this time next year.

So if you think the Johnson strategy is too timid or unsound, you are left with two other options. One is the free agent route this year. The main candidates on the rumor mill here, at least according to Paul Sullivan of the Tribune, are Adam Dunn, Aubrey Huff, and Victor Martinez. Of course, Adam Dunn is the celebrity candidate, but I have to confess that I don't like Dunn as a Cub at all. He either hits a home run, walk, or strikes out, and he is an embarrassment at any position he plays. The Cubs have too many one-dimensional players who are really not ballplayers at all, Soriano for a start, and a team can only carry so many of these slugs, namely less than one.

You can get away with a platoon player like this, maybe a role player, but that's about it in the NL. Dunn is also expensive and wants a four year deal, having already turned down a pretty good three year offer from the Nationals. Some free advice here: we already have enough long-term deals weighing this club down. Dunn is 31 years old, which means you are getting him three years into his most productive years, so you can realistically project him to have one or maybe two stellar seasons, stellar seasons in terms of what he has generally produced in the big leagues, which is home runs, walks, strikeouts and errors. And then he will begin to slack off. I'd pass on this guy.

Huff has always been a Jim Hendry favorite. This is an obvious danger for Cubs fans. Huff will be 34 before the start of the season and he is coming off a career year. He'll probably re-sign with the Giants anyway. Lets hope so.

That leaves Victor Martinez, who is actually the most interesting notion if the Cubs want to take the free agent route. Martinez will be 32 next year and has primarily been a catcher in his career with the Indians and Red Sox. But he has played first base quite a bit and has not done badly. He is a pretty patient switch-hitter with home run power who hits for average as well. On the whole, I could live with this resolution and it might be the most affordable option in the long run.

The other possible strategy would be to fill the position in house. The likely candidate would have to be Tyler Colvin. It's not so bad an option as might appear at first glance. Right now the Cubs are loaded with relatively unproductive or marginal free agent outfielders who are expensive and not readily moved. It also looks as if they have two legitimate outfield prospects in Brett Jackson and Brandon Guyer. Both are fast, solid defensively, hit for average, and show some plate discipline. So you've got yourself a bit of a log-jam out there and players like Colvin will have to fight for playing time at best. Of course, you could recognize that Soriano and Byrd and, to a certain extent, Fukudome are basically platoon players and you could work out some interesting outfield rotations based on this recognition. But that really isn't the Cubs way, is it?

I'd have to take the distinctly minority view and say that - much as I would dearly love to see the Cubs dump Soriano - the guy in the outfield who could be moved to clear salary is not Fukudome, but Byrd. This would free up center field for Colvin, but if they don't do this or use Colvin as a chip to land a guy like Gonzalez or a first-rate pitcher, first base might be the answer for this kid. Right now his stats closely resemble Soriano's, but there is room for loads of improvement if he can learn some plate discipline. Since he can catch and generally play baseball, you can carry a pure slugger at first base for a while provided he improves and you can always unload him for something better if he does not.