Looking at the Marshall Trade

Theo Epstein on more than one occasion referred to Sean Marshall as the best left-handed reliever in baseball.  Assuming this wasn't just hype, was trading Marshall a good idea?

On the whole, I really liked Marshall as a player.  I'm sorry not to have him - one of the more agreeable Cubs on a team of singularly disagreeable figures - to root for.  I always thought Marshall got short-changed a bit when he wasn't given the chance to start on a consistent basis.  Now that he has established himself as a consistent setup man, it seems he is consigned to that role for the indefinite future.

Given that status, though, it makes sense to consider him an asset of some value who can be exchanged for assets the Cubs as a team do not possess in abundance.  Also, relief pitchers are an odd bunch just because generally they are not good enough or complete enough commodities to produce consistently for many years.  Usually this is because of some defect in their makeup as players or because they have only one or two quality pitches.

Marshall is different in this respect, as he seems to possess three or four quality pitches.  In other words, he has starter stuff if not a starter's mindset.  He'll probably help the Reds significantly this year if they manage to transform themselves into genuine contenders.

The Reds, for their part, seem hellbent on trading away all their promising young players and prospects for a chance to win the division this year and/or next before Joey Votto inevitably departs as a free agent.  They have a point.  Their bet is the Cardinals and Brewers will be significantly weakened by the departure of their superstar first basemen and the Cubs won't be in a position to contend.

On balance, I think the trade will benefit both teams, but the Cubs more both in the short and long term.  Obviously, the immediate need for the Cubs is perceived to be starting pitching.  You can't really argue with that.  Last season turned into a complete disaster when two of their five starters went down in the first week of the year.  They just didn't have the personnel in the minors to even halfway replace them and every effort to go out into the market brought back an even bigger loser than the last.

Travis Wood showed a lot of promise in his rookie year even though he regressed some in 2011.  In a way, he rather resembles Sean Marshall five years ago.  If you look at his numbers, he has a much better record on the road.  This is consistent with him being a fly ball pitcher and Cincinnati's stadium being a home run park.  Of course, when the wind blows out at Wrigley, this is going to give Wood similar problems, but actually the Cubs home field is by no means the homer friendly ballpark it is generally portrayed to be most of the time.

The Cubs did manage to obtain two potentially useful chips as part of the exchange.  Ronald Torreyes has put up Starlin Castro type numbers at A ball and he looks to be a key to this deal.  From what I have read, he is a great raw talent and might be on a fast track to the majors, certainly not this coming year, but probably not long after.  He plays second base.

Dave Sappelt is the other player involved.  He played a bit last year with the Reds, but was not impressive.  He had good numbers in the minors and was thought to be the best hitter in the Reds organization in 2010.  A good defensive outfielder, he looks like a patient hitter, but he doesn't have the power numbers expected of a corner outfielder.  He can play center field, which is a plus, but right now he projects as a fourth or fifth outfielder or a platoon option.  He has stolen a lot of bases in the minors, but he seems to get caught stealing almost as often as he succeeds.

So far I don't have a major quarrel with any of Epstein and Hoyer's moves, however small the steps have been.  And they are quite right to listen to offers on just about everyone on the team.  I do take issue though with the expectation they will trade Garza, as well as the notion they are in a complete rebuilding mode.

I don't think it makes any sense to trade Garza.  I've never thought the Cubs starting pitching was as bad as it looked last year.  You have to remember they have had the dumbest and worst fielding team in baseball for several years running, so pitching stats are not necessarily reliable in evaluating these guys, even the more advanced stats like FIP and xFIP.

That being said, unless you are getting back absolute knockout prospects, you have to look at how you are going to replace a pitcher of Garza's quality given the paucity of genuine talent in the Cubs minor league system.  I'm inclined to think a lot of the Garza talk is designed to force the pitcher's hand into signing an extension now that ties him up for an additional two or three years beyond his free agent year.  Given his performance last year, Garza's numbers are going to look even better after next year even if the Cubs are a mediocre team, if only because they may have several more players who can catch.  That sort of season is likely to push him into big money territory coming into his contract year.

You have only to look at the money being thrown around to pitchers like C.J. Wilson, for example, to see where this is headed.  It makes sense for the Cubs to extend Garza now, which is what I think they will do if he is agreeable.

As for the Cubs rebuilding, if you look at the moves the new regime is making, they are not long-term future-oriented moves at all.  Rather they are near-term or middle-term acquisitions.  All the guys they have obtained are either young major leaguers or major league ready talent with the exception of Torreyes.

So far the Cubs have not made a major move, but I would not discount such an initiative in the near future if they have a chance.  Major market teams with big budget potential do not strip down to near nothing.

I look for the Cubs to start retooling their outfield next.  This is the worst outfield in the major leagues and one of the real sources of their problems.  They can start by dumping Soriano and trading Byrd.

Cubs Top Prospects

 

Recently I saw an article from Baseball Prospectus that has been commented on in other places.  It lists the top twenty minor league prospects in the organization and discusses the top ten in some detail.  All I can say is that if this is the best, we really don’t know the half of what a mess Jim Hendry and company have made of the minor league system.

I want to state right off that, as readers of this blog know, I am an advocate of the Bill James/sabermetric method of evaluating talent.  There are many variants of this school of thought, but one thing they all have in common – and one thing the new leadership of the organization undoubtedly seconds – is that there is nothing more important than not making outs and showing patience and discipline at the plate.  A corollary to this judgment is that it is very hard to teach this skill, especially at the major league level.

Having said that, it is astonishing how many of the higher-rated hitters seem to be entirely lacking in this respect.  Kevin Goldstein, the author, rates only one player, Brett Jackson, as a five-star prospect.  Jackson ought to be playing CF or RF next year, hopefully right out of spring training.

Of the rest, there are seven hitters among them.  Only a few do not have the knock of being overly aggressive, strikes out a lot, swings at everything, out of control, etc., attached to the commentary.  These include Javier Baez (“rarely took pitches—even bad ones—in high school”), Wellington Castillo, Matt Szczur (“has a very poor approach at the plate”), Josh Vitters (“sabotages himself at the plate by swinging at far too many bad pitches”), Jaimer Candelario, Marco Hernandez, and Junior Lake (“a complete mess at the plate with very little discipline”).

This list doesn’t even include former hot prospect Tyler Colvin, whose shortcomings were all too obvious at all levels last season.  The problem with plate discipline is that it is very difficult to teach the higher a player advances in the system and the older he gets.

I’d have to say right now that Castillo, Candelario, and Hernandez are the most likely of this group to have a major league future with the Cubs, as well as, of course, Brett Jackson.  The rest are very unlikely to make the grade here, though Baez may be young enough to be turned around if he is teachable.  Look for many of these names, including Colvin, to turn up as throw-ins or overrated minor leaguers in future deals.

Just as an aside, you have to wonder why the Cubs have retained the highly compensated and highly regarded hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo.  Since their banner year of 2008, when the team scored 855 runs and had an OBP of .354, they have seen a steady decline in performance.

707 runs, .332 OBP in 2009; 685 runs, .320 OBP in 2010; 654 runs, .314 OBP in 2011.  2010 and 2011 were Rudy’s stats.  Not too good, even accounting for the decline in talent and player skills during those years.

Zambrano Hit by Line Drive

Carlos Zambrano was hit in the face by a line drive yesterday in the fifth inning of what looked like his best performance to date in the Venezuelan Winter League.  He reportedly had some stiches in his lower lip, but from the video it looks like a glancing blow.

What is really remarkable about the incident is that it looks as if he almost caught the ball on the fly and, in any case, made the play to first base.  Rather easily, in fact.

Say what you will about this guy, but he is an amazing athlete.  Maybe he could play first or third base.

Thoughts on the Manager Selection

News broke late yesterday that Dale Sveum was offered the job managing the Chicago Cubs.  Today that story was confirmed.  In a sense that was a surprise since he seemed the least articulate candidate in the post-interview press conferences and was generally considered the favorite for the Boston job.

That followed news earlier in the day that Terry Francona would not manage this season, and so was not a candidate for the Cubs job.  Not that he was ever a serious candidate except in the minds of imaginative sportswriters.

News also broke earlier in the day that Mike Maddux, thought by some to be the favorite after his standup routine in the interview postmortem, had disqualified himself for family reasons.  Frankly, one
of the things that damped my enthusiasm for Maddux was all this soul-searching about leaving Texas and wanting to be near his family.  It strikes me as showing a lack of commitment to the Cubs job.  I mean, you are getting a three or four year deal.  There are schools and houses in Chicago and its immediate surroundings.  Good ones, too.  So what's the problem?  It is not like his kids are babies, either.  His daughters are 21 and 19 respectively.

My personal choice was Sandy Alomar, Jr., who actually lives in Chicago and was also a former catcher, which is a big plus in my book for managerial candidates.  I cannot see what all the fuss is about Sveum, though baseball guys seem to like him and I expect one must defer to the new management crowd on the assumption they are privy to more information than we are.

I think that one thing the pundits have ignored  in all of this admittedly slow-breaking story is the role of the manager in the statistics-driven Moneyball style of team management.  This model is very much geared to putting the front office in the driver's seat.  The field manager is a secondary player.  He is someone who takes the pieces delivered to him and molds them into a lineup.  He provides game management.  He does not have to do any of the thinking and analysis that goes with assembling the team.  All he has to do is to buy into the schema.

The manager also has to be on the same page as the front office on what it takes to win baseball games.  There are a lot of stats and a lot of theories and you can do a lot of analysis, but the real revolution toward the Bill James statistical approach consists in a few simple observations, which, by the way, I think are ultimately true and for which I have advocated in the pages of this blog.

First off, the idea is to score more runs and to prevent your opponent from scoring runs.  You do this not necessarily by being more physically gifted than your opponent, though that certainly helps and physical skills are essential to performance.  But the real point offensively is to avoid making outs.  You diminish your chances of making outs by swinging more often than not at a pitch you can hit and by taking pitches you cannot hit.  So the most significant statistic is OBP.  Next is the number of pitches seen in an at-bat.

If you get on base, you obviously have avoided making an out and you have extended the inning, thus enhancing the chances of hitter following you extending the inning or getting a pitch to hit, and so on and so on.

It follows that the most important thing a pitcher can do is prevent your opponent from scoring runs, which starts with keeping him off base.  Similarly, fielders who consistently are too slow to reach balls that ordinarily should be caught or who make mental errors like throwing to the wrong base, etc. diminish the odds of winning games.

Readers of this blog will realize that this approach to the game and the player decisions it implies pretty much describes the opposite of the team the Cubs have habitually assembled, especially in recent years.  I can remember only one year when they played this way, 2008, and, of course, they scored more than 800 runs that season.

What Billy Beane did for this system was simply to make a virtue of necessity.  He didn't have much money, but his insights into the game allowed him to find undervalued assets and so to keep his teams competitive even though they could not afford to sign or retain big name talent.  Epstein in Boston and also here in Chicago will have the luxury of the analytical philosophy as well as a lot of money, so the Cubs move was a good one and he is likely to succeed over time.

Anyway, not to belabor the point, the job of putting together a team is the job of the front office.  All the manager needs to do is to accept these principles and to manage accordingly.  Also he has to make put together the lineup and make the game decisions that increase the odds of winning.  In Oakland, Beane and LaRussa famously clashed about philosophy.  LaRussa was an old-line guy with a record of success.  Guys like that, and generally guys with a big following either among the fans or a great deal of prestige are generally the enemies of the front office and organization men who are recruited to implement management's policies.

The kind of structure Epstein and company are likely to bring to Chicago doesn't need a manager with personality and reputation.  In fact, I rather think they correctly realize that not only don't they need one, they don't want one.  These guys are the architects, the designers.  The manager in this schema is more like the contractor or the foreman.  His job is to read the blueprints and make sure nobody gets killed.

I'm not saying this is the best model.  I'm only saying this is the model that fits the system and this is the model we are likely to get.  Terry Francona was not a household word when they hired him in Boston.  He had bounced around some marginal jobs after a four year stint managing the Phillies, which was undistinguished to say the least.

Somehow, maybe through his coaching stint with Oakland, he came to the attention of the Red Sox brass.  This seems to be the common thread with the candidates Epstein and Hoyer chose to interview and from whom they selected Sveum.  I think that is also one of the reasons Sandberg was not considered.  He had no connection to the new regime, and he was a celebrity to boot.  If you look around at the other teams employing these same principles, the same pattern emerges.

I still have my reservations, though.  Take a look at the linked video and you will see what I mean.  What on Earth is this guy talking about.  And, gee whiz, I've bossed teams of workers in my time, and I've worked for strange bosses as well, but I never thought it was a plus from either side not to know what was going on in their heads.

Wait Until Next Year - Part III

I sort of left off 2/3 of the way through an assessment of the Cubs roster and roster needs around the time of the Epstein hiring.  Here is the rest for what it is worth.

The outfield is the Cubs biggest problem even granting the thin starting pitching.  That issue can be resolved with the acquisition of just one pitching asset and/or the complete recovery of one or two injured starters.

When you look at last year, the Cubs had the least productive outfield of any team with pretensions to compete in all of the major leagues.  With the exception of Fukudome who was traded at the deadline and Johnson who was strictly a platoon player when he wasn't on the DL, none of them got on base or hit for average.

Not only were they weak offensively, but they were weak defensively as well.  And that goes also for all the bench-warmers they brought up from the minor leagues with the exception of LaHair, who is primarily a first baseman anyway.

This is an area of the game where the team needs to just start over.  They have to trade Byrd for whatever they can get.  Somebody has to figure out what is wrong with Colvin and whether there is any hope of fixing it.  They need to try to move Soriano as well.  This guy is simply an albatross.  Worst case scenario, he platoons in left field with somebody in the hopes he can be moved at the trade deadline.

Deep in the minors there is some help on the horizon, but, realistically, Brett Jackson is the best hope.  He looks ready for a shot and I expect him to deliver.  That still leaves at least one big hole.  As much as I like Tony Campana's speed, I think this kid is really just a fourth or fifth outfielder.  Someone needs to work with him to get him to stop swinging at everything and start hitting ground balls.

I'd like to see the Cubs get aggressive in pursuing the Cuban star Yoenis Cespedes.  This guy looks like the real deal.  He is a center fielder.  He is fast, a good outfielder, and he can hit for average and power.  I saw recently the Cubs had scheduled a private workout for him.  This is a good sign and he might prove to be the first impact player the new regime acquires.

Hurrah! Quade Fired

So far I cannot fault most of the moves the Epstein/Hoyer team has made.  The best is firing Mike Quade.  Quade had some bad luck losing two starters in the first week of the season, but he just seemed hopelessly out of his league and he continued to use the same old formulae developed by his predecessor Lou Piniella.  Witness the mindless Tyler Colvin/Kosuke Fukudome "platoon."

On to the search for a successor.  The Cubs and Red Sox seem to be working from the same shortlist, which makes for some interesting scenarios given they still have not settled the Epstein compensation issue.  So far Pete Mackanin, Mike Maddux, and Dave Sveum are on the shared list.  Also mentioned are Dave Martinez and Sandy Alomar, Jr., as well as the inevitable Terry Francona rumor.

I could see either Martinez or Alomar being a good fit.  Both are well-respected bench coaches with the Rays and Indians respectively.  Of the two, I think I would prefer Alomar because I think pitchers and catchers generally have made better game managers.

For the same reason, I would prefer Maddux from the first list.  I can't see what the buzz is on Sveum at all and Mackanin has been around the block a few times and must be 60 or pushing 60 by now.  I'd like to see a younger guy take charge here and grow into the job.

I hope they do not consider Francona.  I think he needs a year off and after that whole September collapse and all the scuttlebutt associated with it, do the Cubs want to saddle themselves with more baggage than they already carry?  Also, enough Red Sox already.

I was frankly disappointed that the criteria outlined seemed to exclude Sandberg from consideration.  I'm not a manic Sandberg supporter, but he should have been given at least an interview.  He'll probably wind up with the Cardinals, which would be really weird.  You wonder whether there is some unrevealed skeleton about Sandberg lurking somewhere in the back of the mind of baseball insiders.  There's always some reason teams come up with to pass him over at the major league level.

One guy whose name has not been mentioned prominently is Bob Brenly.  Brenly might be a great fit here.  He has watched these guys play awful baseball for quite a while, so he ought to be a quick study.

I haven't heard much about the coaching staff other than the usual bromides about how the final decision belongs to the manager.  Jaramillo and Listach are signed for another year.  Personally, they are holdovers from the old regime and I would like to see them go.  With Jaramillo in particular, although he always sounds like he knows what he is doing, the players seem to have become even more aggressive and less thoughtful in their approach, so it may just be his approach and style is not what this team needs.

Dempster

Ryan Dempster exercised his player's option for 2012.  No surprise here as he is set to make $14M plus in one of Jim Hendry's friendliest holdover deals.

Too bad for the Cubs on this score.  I've never been a big fan of Dempster.  He is certainly not a #1 starter, more like a #4 or #5.  His stuff has been diminishing steadily over the last few years and last year he just plain stunk most of the time.

Theo Epstein keeps talking about assets.  Dempster is not an asset, but the Cubs are stuck with him unless they can unload him in the off-season or at the trade deadline.  At least we did not see Epstein taking the bait Dempster was dangling for a multi-year extension.

The next pressing decisions for Epstein will be Ramirez and Pena, plus, of course, the future of MIke Quade.

World Series Wrapup

You have to congratulate the Cardinals on their success.  They seem to have jelled at the right time.  It kind of demonstrates that with the relative parity of talent in the game today, a mediocre team can make a few changes at the trade deadline, and if they get hot and lucky, well, anything can happen.

Which is not to take anything away from their heroic efforts, especially in Game 6.  I still cannot figure out how Texas was able to lose that game, not once, but three times.  Some of it had to do with managerial choices that were made, particularly putting the tying run in the person of Albert Pujols on base.  Still, it was the Cards who took advantage.

After the devastating loss in Game 6, it was hard to envisage the Rangers coming back, and, of course, they did not.  Game 7, like Game 3, was one-sided, and a bore.

World Series/Theo Epstein

Actually, with the exception of the third game, this has turned out to be at least an entertaining World Series.  The teams seem evenly matched.  Lots of close, tense games.  Last night's game was one of the best thus far with the Rangers pulling it out with an eighth inning rally.  I still expect this to go to a seventh game.

I used to think that C.J. Wilson might be worth pursuing for the Cubs this off-season, but having seen him in the playoffs and now the series, I rather think he is over-rated.  He pitched his best game thus far last night, but he still managed to walk five Cardinals in five plus innings.  Off these post-season performances, I doubt he is going to hit even $15M per year in the free agent market.

Theo Epstein has finally taken over as the Cubs President of Baseball Operations or whatever it is they are calling him.  I am hopeful he will make the necessary changes this franchise needs to succeed.

Some unsolicited advice respecting decisions he needs to make starting the end of the week.  Exercise the option on Ramirez and hope to negotiate two or three years at a lower salary.  Nothing to lose here.

Let Carlos Pena become a free agent.  Discourage Ryan Dempster from exercising his player option to remain a Cub.  Whatever you do, don't negotiate a multiple year extension.

Oh, and when you meet with Mike Quade in person, fire him.

Lastly, this compensation business sure is dragging on.  I saw one note where the Cubs would send Jeff Baker and a low minors prospect.  That seems about right and I would love to see Baker in another uniform next season.

Odds and Ends

The World Series starts today.  Not the most exciting match-up possible, Texas vs. St. Louis.  Actually, it is pretty much of a network nightmare, which is good, I guess, given the awful job they have done covering the post-season so far.  Despite many exciting or at least close games, both TBS and Fox have succeeded in dragging out most contests to close to four hours and generally boring everyone to death.

I was surprised to see the Cardinals advance, as I did not think they were a very good team this season.  The Phillies had to be everyone's choice with their pitching, but, to be honest, they kept the Cards in every game with their poor offensive strategies.  These guys have got to learn plate discipline, which, incidentally, is why they scored so few runs in the regular season as well.

I am not surprised by the Brewers failure.  This is another free-swinging club that also plays bad defense.  Roenicke was just out-manged by LaRussa in the playoffs.

Much as I hate to see a Texas team succeed, the Rangers are a good team.  Just from a baseball point-of-view, they deserve to be there.  Having said that, I had thought that the Tigers and the Yankees were the two best teams and that the winner of that series would be the champion.  The thing is, anything can happen in the current playoff structure, especially in the five game series.  This year, weather played a big part in it.

On the Epstein front, things also seem to have dragged on to the point where no one really gives a damn whether the Cubs get him or not.  This is largely the result of the completely unreasonable stance taken by the Red Sox front office in demanding unprecedented compensation for a front office executive.  The Cubs should just sit tight and wait these guys out.  They should certainly not give away a significant prospect.  They simply cannot afford to do so.

Wait Until Next Year – Part Two

With the same preface as my evaluation of pitching in Part One, here is a shot at evaluating current personnel and moving forward toward next year.  Just a warning, the outlook is not good, or at least not so good as the Cubs management may think.

This pessimism must be contrasted with the notion that more surprising recoveries have happened in the past.  The Diamondbacks this season, for example.  Also, the Cubs play in one of the weakest division in all of baseball.  The Cardinals will likely return the same lineup and pitching as they fielded this season.  The Brewers, despite their performance thus far, are not a genuinely good team.  They have not won a series from a team with a winning record since April or something.  They will very likely lose both Prince Fielder and K-Rod, and they will very likely be eliminated in short order by the Phillies when they meet in the post-season if the Cardinals don’t knock them out first.

Catcher

Geovanny Soto has been really bad this season, offensively and defensively.  He calls a predictable game, has indifferent mechanics, doesn’t thwart a good running game.  Fundamentally, he is a weak player.  He doesn’t seem to manage his pitchers very well.  I am constantly noticing the little plays he does not make, backing up first and third base, etc.  Offensively, he had an off-year after a pretty good year in 2010.  Strikeouts are up, walks are down, average is down.

I was hoping to get a look at Wellington Castillo in the September call-up, but a hamstring injury made him unavailable.  The Cubs did call up AA catcher Steve Clevenger, who seems to be able to hit, after the AA post-season is done, but Quade did not give him much of a look.

Catcher is definitely a spot where the Cubs, who are probably thinking they are OK, need a serious upgrade.  If they are going with youth – and I cannot see they have much choice – they should trade Soto while he is still a marketable commodity and let Castillo and Clevenger contend for the spot.

Koyie Hill is an OK backup who knows how to play even though he seems to lack the talent to actually play competitively.  Maybe they should offer him a coaching spot.  It would be a sign of serious desperation to bring him back as a backup.

First Base

Carlos Pena has had what has become a typical Carlos Pena year, that is, he hit for a low batting average, but had an OBP about 120 points higher because he is a patient hitter, so he walks a lot  He hit close to 30 HRs.  This year his RBI were down.  For my money, that is inexcusable.  Batters ahead of him in the lineup are getting on base.  He is not coming through.  His batting average with men in scoring position was lower even that Marlon Byrd’s.  Pena’s walks are a little deceptive.  Because he bats in front of the phenomenally unproductive trio of Byrd, Soriano, and Soto, right-handers are often pitching around him, knowing the players behind him are not going to drive him home.  Defensively, Pena is a plus.

You could possibly live with Pena at first for another year, but certainly not two, which is what he will want to get in terms of a contract.  If you think an OPS in the high 700s or low 800s is OK for a first baseman, then you’ll stick with him.  This is a position where the Cubs also need an upgrade.

Fans are agog with the idea of bringing in either Pujols or Fielder as a free agent.  These guys are really good.  I would not be all that keen on giving Pujols a long-term deal considering his age.  Also, I cannot see the Cardinals letting him walk.  Fielder might be worth a shot.  He’s a lot younger.  Of course, he is not much of  defensive player and he does not look like the kind of guy who will have a long productive career.  If the Brewers advance beyond the NLCS, I can’t see them letting Fielder go cheap.  Anybody who gets him will overpay, so the question is whether getting him is going to put you over the top.  Is Fielder the one guy who brings it all together?  For the Cubs, neither Pujols or Fielder does this for the roster.  The Cubs right now are a bad team in many ways.  The addition of a single superstar will not make the difference.  Lets face it, the Cardinals, though perennial contenders, were losing games and playing crappy baseball with Pujols on the roster before they backed into the playoffs, and the Brewers, before they improved their pitching, were a mediocre team with both Fielder and Braun on the roster.

In-house, the Cubs have professional minor league star Bryan LaHair.  I liked what I saw this September even though he was playing out of position.  Is he the reincarnation of Micah Hoffpauir or Casey McGehee?  The Cubs are so loathe to expose their minor league talent that you can never be certain.  One thing I cannot figure out is why Carlos Pena played every day when you knew everything you needed to know about him.  Letting him build up his numbers also just made him more expensive if you were thinking about extending his contract.

Second Base

I’m OK with Darwin Barney, at least for the short term.  I’d like to see him take more pitches, but he is at least as good as Ryan Theriot with a lot more upside.  You cannot remake an entire team, much as you would like to do so.  Besides, Jim Hendry really liked second basemen, so the team now has Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker as backups, as well as Ryan Flaherty and D.J.LeMahieu waiting in the wings.  They ought to think about trading one or both of their veteran backups, especially the utterly useless and over-rated Baker.  DeWitt can also play third base (not, despite Quade’s beliefs, left field), and he bats left-handed, so he could be back as a bench player.

Third Base

Aramis Ramirez had a solid year after an awful start.  The Cubs have an option on him for $16M and he has a player option to refuse.  The Cubs are likely to be in a bind here as both Ramirez and his agent have indicated he wants a multiple year deal, believes the Cubs are in rebuilding mode, and is likely to test the market.

I’m always of two minds on the Ramirez question, largely because the Cubs have no replacement.  They should probably offer to pick up his option knowing he will refuse.  This gets them a draft pick.  Now that they have a GM in Theo Epstein, he might negotiate a quick two or three year deal for around $12M per year.  Ramirez has sent signals he would take the deal.

If they don’t get it done, it looks like the Cubs will be shopping for a new third baseman.  The free agent market is pretty lean here, so unless there is a hidden gem in the minors, it looks like a trade is the only option here.

Stay tuned for Part Three, the Outfield.  That’s where things look really grim.

Playoff Coverage

I don't know about you, but playoff baseball, which should be exciting, tends to be spoiled by the endless commercial delays, as well as by the dreadful announcing.  Quite my least favorite is the Fox Sports color man, Tim McCarver.

Now Tim is usually just a treasure trove of irrelevant and trivial and just plain dumb nattering, but last night he outdid himself.  Brandon Inge was batting for the Tigers.  McCarver stated that Inge would never see a fastball in this at-bat, that he didn't pull the ball anymore and that he had lost his power.  Inge promptly deposited a fast ball over the left field wall.  This kind of insight is hard to top.

Cubs Fans: Be Careful What You Wish For

Chicago Cubs fans might do well to beware getting the object of their desire.  I have nothing against Theo Epstein and by all accounts he has done a fine job with the Red Sox franchise.  But it is not as if he has not made decisions that in retrospect do not look a whole lot better than some of the moves Jim Hendry made during his tenure with the Cubs.

There is a very informative piece at MLB Trade Rumors detailing the rotations that Epstein has built during his tenure with Boston.  Bottom line: they don’t look a whole lot better than Hendry’s.  Pitching has never been Boston’s long suit.  In addition, if Epstein were to leave his current post, he would be leaving behind several long-term disappointing contracts, most notably Carl Crawford, John Lackey, and Disuke Matsuzaka.

I don’t categorically oppose hiring Epstein per se.  I mean, anybody would be an upgrade from the prior Cubs regime.  However, you have to wonder what it is that attracts Cubs owner Tom Ricketts most about him.  To my way of thinking, there are two points of attraction from Ricketts point-of-view.  First, he is a safe choice.  Ordinary fans can’t knock his record of success.  He proves that Ricketts is serious.

Secondly, and I think maybe foremost in Ricketts’ mind, is the whole marketing miracle surrounding the rehabilitation of Fenway Park and its environs.  This process has got to make any greedy owner salivate, but should the Cubs decide to follow the same path, be prepared for the franchise to take advantage of any way they can to make money and to market the team and its ballpark.

My primary misgiving in the whole quest to obtain Epstein, though, is the fact that he is under contract and that the Red Sox are likely to want substantial compensation should the Cubs lure him over.  Some pundits have suggested Starlin Castro would be the price.  I don’t like the idea of trading real everyday assets for a front office guy anyway, but the Cubs don’t exactly have a bunch of chips to put on the table, do they?  Even thinking about something more than the kind of compensation the White Sox got for Ozzie Guillen is just crazy.

Of the other names of current GMs that have been bandied about, Andrew Freidman of the Rays has always struck me as a better bet.  His achievements with the low budget, no attendance Tampa franchise are far more impressive than those of a guy who has had virtually no financial constraints.

There are also quite a few prospective top executives who are working as assistants now with impressive credentials.  Picking one of these would be daring for the excessively cautious Ricketts, but for me it would be a gutsy and correct move given the state of the Cubs franchise.  The success stories we are looking at now were once, to use Steve Jobs’ term, “hungry and foolish.”

Another thought occurs to me respecting Epstein, and that is he is possibly just playing Ricketts to get an extension and more control from the Red Sox ownership.  It’s not as if a similar scenario did not play out before between the parties when he resigned for a few months back in 2005.

Bartman!

I’ve watched the ESPN documentary, Catching Hell, about the Bartman game twice now.  It is quite well done and worth a look, especially if you are a follower of the Cubs or the Red Sox.  I suppose there is a rough comparison between the zealous fan base of each team, their long history of post-season futility and late season meltdowns, etc.  There are also parallels in the treatment of the scapegoats Buckner and Bartman.  However, to my mind, that is where the observation ends.

For one thing, Buckner was a player who made a physical error.  The game also was played in New York, not in Boston, so the fan reaction had much less impact on the outcome of the game or the series.  The blame that attached to Bill Buckner seems almost retrospective.  The Buckner error clearly cost the Red Sox the game, but, especially considering the rainout of the seventh game, the whole incident developed over a more extended time. 

In contrast, the Bartman incident took place in Chicago.  The reaction was immediate and visceral and peculiarly universal.  By that I mean pretty much everyone in the stands and all the participants in the game, both the Cubs and the Marlins, instantly recognized the utter and devastating significance of an apparently commonplace occurrence, the attempt of a fan to catch a foul ball near the field of play.  That is really the heart of the matter: we were just waiting for something bad to happen, we were not just fearing it, we were waiting for it and so was the team.

You have to ask yourself how this relatively routine event could have had such an impact and how, thinking back upon it, everyone realized right then and there the inevitable nature of that impact.  I’m not a psychologist by any stretch of the imagination, but the entire affair suggests a set of eerie speculations on the psychology of crowds and how deeply a form of negative energy can infect a group and the focus of that group’s attention.  For me, anyway, that is the most interesting aspect of the whole affair.

The following narrative is certainly anecdotal, but I very much remember the night of the Bartman incident.  I didn’t have tickets for the game, so I was watching at home with my wife.  I remember thinking to myself how well the game was going.  Mark Prior seemed to be in command.  The Cubs had built a three run lead going into the eighth inning.  What could go wrong?  Yet in the back of both our minds there lurked a nagging doubt.  It was almost too easy.

We lived only a few blocks from Wrigley Field then and we were debating when we should leave the house to walk over and join the celebration.  Something was holding us back.  We decided to watch the top of the eighth before going.  Then it happened.  My wife said it was all over.  I tried to argue that it was just a fluke, a bad break.  But I really knew deep down it was over and I was just not willing to admit it.

In retrospect, it seems as if the whole stadium and all of Cubs fandom and the team itself was waiting for something to go wrong.  All it took was a fluke to set it off.  Alou’s reaction to the play, the stomping up and down, the glove throwing, was totally out of proportion to the event itself.  How tightly wound does a team, a player, or a crowd have to be to provoke the cascade of events that followed?  And how intimately connected is this loop of tension to the actual outcome?

In a way, the ESPN documentary distorts the real-time flow of things.  I suppose this is inevitable given the desire to follow two threads of the story, the crowd reaction to Bartman’s interference and the Cubs collapse/Marlins rally that followed.  I had occasion to watch a replay of the inning itself on the Internet last week.  What you see there is how central the foul ball is to the inning, how obsessed the crowd and the Cubs become with the play and its aftermath.  The whole place loses its composure.  Most of the crowd is focused on abusing Bartman.  Even as the inning continues and the Cubs team goes into a tailspin, you can see the Cubs players looking up into the stands, pointing fingers, shaking their heads.  They have obviously lost their concentration.  Every subsequent pitch, every subsequent play adds to their frustration.  Once things have started snowballing, nothing can stop the momentum.

So, is there a Cubs curse?  I don’t think so, but there is an expectation of failure among the Cubs fan base, and that expectation carries over to the team.  No team plays tighter that the Cubs when the chips are down, and the continued history of failure must be a contributing psychological factor.  This feedback loop has become a part of the team’s tradition, almost a part of its definition, so much so that it is difficult to imagine the team’s personality without it.

My father was a lifelong Cubs fan.  Each year he would look forward to the start of the season with hope and enthusiasm.  He was convinced, however, that the team would ultimately fail.  Even in the magical season of 1969, he knew it would not last.  This syndrome was the case even though when he was a young man, in the twenties and thirties, the Cubs were a good team, filled with star players, perennial contenders who regularly went to the World Series even though they did not win it.

There are only three players left on the roster from the 2003 team, Aramis Ramirez, Kerry Wood, and Carlos Zambrano.  From a combination of free agency, injuries, and just weird circumstances, it is possible the Cubs will start 2012 without any of the holdovers.  For Cubs fans like myself, it’s not likely to make much difference.  In our hearts we know it is going to take some miracle to stop the slide.  We just don’t know what it could be and we just don’t believe it will happen.  We keep watching and hoping though, which probably makes it hurt all the more.

This post is also available at The Fan Manifesto.

The Playoffs: A Guide to the Perplexed

It is playoff time again and time to dust off time-tested methods for politically aware fans to at least decide the teams for which to root in the coming weeks.  Surprisingly, the method predicts the champion about three-quarters of the time.

The theory is pretty simple.  One must always root for the team from an unequivocally blue state.  If there is a contest between two such states, one may pull for either team or attempt to break the tie by selecting the team which is an original major league franchise, preferably one that has never relocated.

So this year in the AL, since the Yankees and Detroit are both from blue states and both original ML franchises, there is no clear favorite.  Personally, I am hoping Detroit wins because it is the underdog and from a rust belt state to boot.  In the case of Tampa vs. Texas, Florida is considered a swing state or a purple state, so it is OK to root for them, though in the LCS, one must cheer for the winner of the Yankees/Tigers series.  In no case can rooting for a team from Texas be considered legitimate even if you are from Texas.

In the NL, there are clear choices as well.  In the Cardinals/Phillies series, Pennsylvania is the bluer state.  Some pundits consider Missouri a purple state, though I have my doubts.  Fortunately, the Phillies trump this dilemma.  Wisconsin is considered by many a state that leans left and is thus blue.  However, given the abomination of the Scott Walker regime, you have to have serious doubts here.  Thankfully, they are playing the Diamondbacks from Arizona, so the issue is categorically resolved.  Just as in the case of Texas, one may never support a team from Arizona.

The NL LCS presents issues should the Cardinals and Brewers advance.  If you think Wisconsin is blue, it's not a problem.  We will cheer for the Phillies and hope the issue is put to bed.

It's Finally Over

The Cubs wrapped up their third consecutive losing season Wednesday night, each more depressing and futile than the last.  It was done in characteristic fashion with a philosophical Ryan Dempster, a longtime favorite of the Cubs inept management and particularly a favorite of Mike Quade, hanging around to pitch his 200th inning of the season, giving up nine runs, eight hits, four walks, and two home runs in the process.

Dempster rambled on after the game about how it was an achievement to pitch 200 innings even though for the most part they were not quality innings but he gave the team a chance to win and that was what it was all about anyway and if the team could not give him the run support he needed to deliver, which, given an ERA close to five, an ERA+ of 81, and a WHIP of 1.45, is quite a few runs indeed well, too bad, he gave it everything he had.

He also confessed to not even having thought about whether he would exercise his $14M player option next year.  Come on, is this guy playing Ricketts and the fans, or what?  Make no mistake, Dempster is only hemming and hawing about this because, like Ramirez, he wants at least three more years from the Cubs.  He faces a harder choice than Ramirez in this matter because he is less certain to get a good deal elsewhere and the Cubs at present are not in a position to make the necessary commitment.  Nor, in his case, should they.

Dempster is a pretty ordinary pitcher who has made a lot of money for a guy who arguably has had only one good season, 2008.  He's been on a downhill slide since then, his stuff has deteriorated, and he is 34 years old.  I would venture to suggest that the Dempster contract is an even greater albatross than the Zambrano deal.  At least Zambrano is only 30, and there is considerable upside there if he can conquer his demons.  In Dempster's case, though there are no apparent demons, there is no upside either.

I wrote in an earlier post about the seemingly delusional behavior of Mike Quade who seems to think he did a good job this season and, worse yet, believes he will return next year.  This peculiar form of complacency is shared by his ultimate boss, Tom Ricketts, who, once the season had mercifully ended, proudly announced there was no timetable in his search for a new GM.  He would take as long as he needed to find the right man, and, anyway, this team was only a few tweaks to be competitive next year, by golly.

Haven't we heard this before?  As a matter of fact, we heard this mantra from Jim Hendry after each unsuccessful year?  Is Ricketts channeling Jim Hendry?  Or was Hendry channeling Tom Ricketts all along?  Here's a horrible thought, what if Ricketts has secretly rehired Hendry and not told anyone about it?  Or maybe Ricketts has deputized Hendry to head up the search team for his own successor without telling anyone, even Hendry?  The possibilities are endless.

Say It Ain't So

After yesterday's game, Mike Quade threatened to return next year to guide the Cubs again.  I would imagine the reporters would have fled the friendly confines in horror and disbelief, but, probably inured to the fantasies emanating from that dais on a daily basis they just turned off their tape recorders and dozed off.

Iron Mike further testified that he had no reason to suppose management had any problems with his style or lack of achievement.  The players all loved him and blamed themselves for the team's failures, promising to try a lot harder next year if the team gave them all multi-year extensions.

When he was asked about the poor fundamental play throughout the season, he averred that sure it was disappointing, but he had emphasized strong fundamental play in spring training and he did not blame himself for the team's lack of attention.  Most of the guys had tried real hard, so they were not to blame either.  He was certain that if they all got a vote of confidence from whoever the new GM was, they would try even harder next year.

Finally, the skipper said he would like to have Zambrano's arm back next year, but he confessed to doubts that he could deal with bringing back the entire player.  But that would be a conundrum the new GM would certainly figure out.

On another note, both Aramis Ramirez and his agent Paul Kinzer have made it pretty clear they are angling for a multi-year extension.  They have stated they would turn down the one-year option the Cubs hold and opt for free agency if the Cubs exercised it.

Actually, that is not much of a surprise, and it tends to work out in the Cubs favor.  The Cubs can exercise the option knowing Ramirez will turn it down.  This buys them at least a compensatory draft selection.  Ramirez has said he would consider an offer from the Cubs when he is a free agent, so the door is still open.

It is likely that Ramirez is worth around $12M/year for a two or three year deal.  I would think the new GM would offer this kind of deal for two years with an option for year three or some kind of performance-based vesting option for the final year.

I've been of two minds on the Ramirez question.  On the one hand, the Cubs have built their team around his bat for several seasons and they have been disappointed the past three even though he has had reliable production when he is healthy.  So it might be time to move on.  On the other hand, there are no immediate alternatives available on the farm or through free agency.

The guy you want to see opt out is Ryan Dempster, who holds a player's option for around $14M.  I've never been a big Dempster fan simply because even though his numbers have been pretty good, he just is not a stopper.  This year his stuff has very noticeably declined and should the Cubs bring him back for another season - and as it stands now, this is not their choice - they are going to be looking for a replacement very soon.  Dempster wants a multiple year extension.  Under no circumstances should he get it.  The best result for the Cubs is for him to walk.

With both these guys, the Cubs are in a bad spot with a caretaker administration.  It is unlikely they will have a new GM in place within five days of the season's end, so they are just going to have to make the best of it and let the players who have an option make up their own minds.

Last Night Game of the Year at Wrigley

I haven't been posting individual game reviews lately because there hasn't been much to say, but, since I managed to get out to see the final night game of the year, this is an exception.

Last night's game was a lot like many of the other games in a disappointing season.  Randy Wells started out very well and I thought it would be a nice pitcher's duel, but he came apart in the third inning after allowing two sharp doubles to the opposing pitcher Marcum and Brewers leadoff man Corey Hart.

I couldn't tell whether they had figured out his change-up or he lost his release point, but everything was up and he got hammered.  The Cubs typical bad defense did not help matters.  For some reason Castro was positioned at double play depth with a runner at second base, so he missed Morgan's line drive at shortstop.  Soto threw the ball into center trying to nab Morgan on a steal attempt and Morgan scored on a Braun single.  Fielder worked the count to 3-2 before hitting a weak grounder to second.  Braun was going with the pitch, so the Brewers were able to avoid a double play.  Then Weeks hit a hard smash to third that Ramirez misplayed.  Only one error, but characteristic sloppy play turned a shaky inning into disaster.

The only other excitement from the Cubs viewpoint was a home run by Starlin Castro to lead off the sixth.  Marcum pitched a good game and had the Cubs hitters off-balance throughout.

Still, it was a pleasant night at Wrigley Field, warm temperatures.  Good to get out one last time before the season is over.  Props to Stub-Hub as well.  I hadn't used the service in a long time, but I managed to score $60 tickets for $20 each.  One of the perks, I suppose, of continued mediocrity.

I snapped the photo above after Bryan LaHair fouled off a pitch before striking out in the bottom of the ninth inning.

Kicking the Can

One of the hallmarks of the Ricketts ownership of the Cubs seems to be a spirit of temporization and indecision that pervades the whole organization.  What I mean is that the whole gambit seems to be geared toward postponing necessary decisions more or less to the point where they no longer matter.

To begin with, Ricketts should have replaced the major players in the front office immediately upon taking ownership of the team.  He was clearly unready to do so and everyone cut him some slack for this misdemeanor, arguing that he needed time to evaluate the situation.  Lost in this initial round of excuses is the fact that negotiations had been in progress years before the actual takeover, so the Ricketts family had ample time to put some sort of minimal transition team of advisors in place.

Just to give the highlights, we witnessed the Lou Piniella death march before Hendry finally pulled the plug on him in August, only to install his protégé Mike Quade as interim manager.  Quade continued to play the same mopes that Piniella played, trotting out the same lineup that included the same weird platoons that made no sense at all (Colvin/Fukudome, for example).  He got lucky though as his starting pitching came around, notably Carlos Zambrano, who won his last eight decisions during that stretch.

Hendry should have been fired in the off-season.  He had assembled a mediocre, flawed team that was totally dysfunctional and had suffered consecutive losing seasons, actually embarrassing losing seasons.  Instead he was allowed to continue, perpetuating the culture of postponement.  He promptly installed the increasingly befuddled Quade as skipper.

There were two genuine difference-makers available in the off-season, Adrian Gonzalez on the trade market and Cliff Lee as a free agent.  Whether he had a legitimate chance of obtaining either is somewhat beside the point.  Hendry chose not to pursue either in a serious way, opting instead to sign the placeholder Carlos Pena.  Evidently this was done on the off chance that Pena would resurrect his career in Chicago and they would make a run at Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder when and if they became free agents the following year.

Instead of taking a shot at Lee in the free agent market, Hendry traded away four of the top ten prospects in the organization to obtain Matt Garza from the Rays.  However this move works out in the long run, this is a move you make if you are a pitcher away from a division title.  Making it when you are not argues that you are just postponing the inevitable recognition that you are not a contender and that you need to deal with that conclusion decisively and quickly.

So having postponed the matters to the point where nothing could be done to salvage another depressing season, Ricketts dismissed Hendry.  However, he and Hendry didn’t tell anyone for a month, allowing Hendry to completely mess up the trade deadline situation when they might have dumped one or more of their useless pieces just for the sake of dumping them if nothing else.

The one player they did dump from their awful and unproductive outfield was Kosuke Fukudome, who, incidentally, has been an important reason the Indians have stayed as close to Detroit in the AL Central as they have until they collapsed last week.  They traded Fukudome ostensibly to make room for Tyler Colvin to play every day.  However, Mike Quade, managing in the forlorn hope of returning next year, has chosen, just as he did last year, to stick with his veterans.  So Colvin hardly ever plays and has continued to disappoint.

It is getting to be really hard to watch this team day in and day out.  One thing that kind of keeps you going is following some of your favorite players, but, as I have remarked before, it is hard to have favorite players on this team.  I woke up the other day, went over to the blogs and team sites I usual follow.  Then I came to the terrible realization that I actually dislike this team.  Now I find myself unconsciously rooting for the other side in the hopes that something like losing all the rest of their games will wake somebody up.

Now we have news that someone from Detroit called up Ricketts and asked for permission to discuss a job next year with Oneri Fleita.  Ricketts, who has been running around putting all the decisions on the new GM’s plate, promptly signed Fleita to a four-year contract.  Was the inept owner/fan played again?

So far the scorecard on the new Cubs regime is two seasons, two lost years.  The only truly promising sign yet to be realized is the emergence of Starlin Castro as a potential star.  Otherwise the team and everything about it has actually gotten worse.

We are told, however, that the new GM will fix all that.  He has a big job ahead of him and he better get going quick, that’s for sure.  Even assuming he or she is not associated with a playoff team, there is a lot on the plate.  First off, there is the issue of a new manager.  Then the pending options for Ramirez (mutual) and Dempster (player) with all the implications of extensions involved.  Then there is the whole Zambrano mess.  Then he/she will have to find away to replace at least two outfielders, a first baseman, at least one starting pitcher and maybe two if Dempster walks, and three if Zambrano doesn’t return, not to mention a third baseman if Ramirez leaves, not to mention improving the team at catcher in the wake of Soto’s awful year.

Well, you get the picture.  Most of this mess is the result of Ricketts’s indecision and Hendry’s ineptitude and insistence that the team was fundamentally OK.  Two years is a long time to sit tight in baseball and the Cubs are experiencing the results of having wasted that time.  Never fear, though, help is on the way and Mr. Right will save the day.

Good luck with that.

I posted a version of this at Bleacher Report, where it got a lot of reads earlier this week.

Nothing to Write Home About

Lest my readers suppose I have not been watching the Cubs, rest assured, I have been, more or less. I cannot say I have watched every inning. It is simply there is nothing much to say. Since my last post, the team has gone 6-6, pretty much playing to type.

Quade continues to play the usual suspects, Byrd, Soriano, etc. The lineups are especially bad against lefties because they include Baker and Johnson as well. I don't really dislike Johnson as a player, but honestly what does it prove in the end. Baker is a player I cannot stand even though he hits left-handed pitching pretty well. You have to ask yourself, what does this prove, other than that the team can play .5oo ball if everything goes right? Quade seems to have completely given up on Tyler Colvin. He has played badly for sure, but what is the point of benching him? Actually winning games in the end hurts the team's draft position if nothing else. Not to mention taking playing time away from any prospects they have brought up.

Speaking of prospects, though, the Cubs chose to bring up Lou Montanez again, as well as D.J. LeMahieu. Le Mahieu may have a future although he looks overmatched. Montanez does not. Nor presumably does Gaub, who, in any case, is never used, Quade preferring to mop up and lose extra inning games with another solid incompetent in Grabow.

Allegedly to allow him to prepare for playing on Team USA, the Cubs chose not to promote potential star Brett Jackson. Actually this was more likely because some accountant figured out his major league credits would not begin and so they could potentially save arbitration money down the road.

One bright spot has been Bryan LaHair, who has hit for power and average in his brief stint. He has not embarrassed himself in right or left field, though, again, why they don't give him a shot at first base is something only Mike Quade could explain. Sure, Carlos Pena is a major leaguer and all that, but everything you want to know about him and his abilities is known. All you do by playing him is to enhance his value as a free agent by letting him build up his numbers in meaningless games. If you played LaHair and he turned out solid, you might save yourself $10-20 million next season depending on whether the team signs Pena or goes after Fielder or Pujols.

Actually, I am very suspicious of any numbers the Cubs veterans might put up in the last month of the season. These guys with something to prove like Soriano and Byrd and Pena and Soto are just going up there and swinging for the fences. They aren't playing baseball any more. Ramirez a bit less so because he has a little less to prove at this stage.

One bright light has been the performance of Randy Wells over the last few weeks. He seems finally to have recovered from his injuries and his crisis of confidence. He has pitched back to his 2009 form lately and this bodes well for the future. I was glad to see Cashner return even if only to the bullpen. The Cubs need to be very careful with him through the rest of the year. It serves no purpose to over extend him in a lost season.

Another observation that I have probably made before. Watching the Cubs outfield play in a big stadium like Citi Field just highlights how bad they are, how slow they are, how bad their jumps on flyballs and popups are, etc. This is a major reason they "stinks," as Carlos Zambrano so aptly put it. I just see balls the Cubs hit in the gaps get run down with regularity and balls their opponents hit fall in and roll to the wall. If the Cubs are going to contend again, they need to get some outfielders who can hit and run and catch and play fundamental baseball. If they cannot get them from the farm, they will have to trade for them or sign free agents.

Wait Until Next Year, Part I

The Cubs were 13-7 in a mini-revival when I started this analysis, which is probably worse for the team than a sustained losing streak simply because, just as last season, it provides false hope and prevents the team getting a look at top prospects in August when the games for them are not just glorified AAA contests. However, they finished the home stand by losing four of five games, which is more like it, then losing the first two games of the Brewers series.

They have finally parted company with GM Jim Hendry, but they are in lame duck mode with caretaker GM Hendry-protégé Randy Bush, dilettante owner Tom Ricketts, meddlesome business guru Crane Kenney, and dead duck manager Mike Quade running the show. Not a good situation for a deeply flawed team.

Now is as good a time as any to take a look at next year, starting with a look at the team’s current players and prospects, beginning with pitching.

The Starters:

Carlos Zambrano, now suspended or on the disqualified list or something. The whole Zambrano history is virtually a lesson in how not to manage a baseball franchise. The latest episode is a case study in over-reaction mediated by the desire to dump a contract.

Worst case, Carlos Zambrano is now a #3 or #4 starter who can eat innings even if he is inconsistent. Without Zambrano, the Cubs have a big hole in the rotation and a hole that is not likely to be filled from within. Personally I have no problem with rehabilitating the former star, but the likelihood of that happening is pretty much directly related to who is chosen to become the new GM and manager.

More than likely, Zambrano wins his grievance and the Cubs either seek to unload him and agree to pay all or most of his salary next season or they reach a buyout arrangement and he becomes a free agent. Anyway you figure it, this creates a big question mark for next year and an immediate need for a starter.

This will be a major problem all around as there are no real high quality starters in the free agent pool next year and a trade for a Garza-type pitcher would decimate an already weakened minor league base. Not much on the horizon from the farm either, unless Nick Struck can make a big leap forward.

Ryan Dempster has a player option for next season. Dempster at this stage of his career is a #3 starter and not a very reliable one at that. He has pitched pretty well of late, but that is always his pattern and when he is bad he is very, very bad. In my opinion, he is getting a little long in the tooth. The Cubs should have thought about trading him this season, but they have missed the opportunity.

Dempster has one of those classic Jim Hendry deals where he has a player option for next year worth around $14M. Dempster is a big Hendry guy and the departure of the former GM might lead him to think about opting out. Previously, it was widely assumed this would never happen and that Hendry might very well negotiate an extension. If I were Dempster’s agent, I would try to get a one or two year extension and if not I would take a hike. If I’m the Cubs, I stick at the current contract, which has already vested, and let him make up his mind.

The question you have to ask about Dempster, and Zambrano and Wells also, is how much they have been affected by the simply awful fielding and hitting team the Cubs have deployed behind them. Dempster has lost a little bit off his fastball and his breaking stuff is not as sharp. Long term, the Cubs are in a comparable position with Dempster as they were with Ted Lilly last year. They decided then, quite wisely, that Lilly was not going to re-invent himself or get any better. Dempster is not going to re-invent himself either, nor is he going to get any better. The difference is that he is in control. Depending on how well he finishes out the season, if Dempster does opt in, the Cubs should think about trading him in the off-season anyway.

Matt Garza is under team control for a while. He has pitched well after a rough start, much better than his stats indicate. Though I would not consider him a genuine ace or #1, on an improved team or at least a team that routinely makes routine plays, he is the anchor of the staff right now. Whether it was worth trading four of your top ten prospects to obtain him is another question altogether.

Randy Wells hasn’t lived up to the promise of his rookie year. In his defense, he had a great spring, but then was hurt after his first start. The Cubs have rushed him back to the rotation because they had no one else to turn to. He seems to be improving a bit lately. Maybe he has turned the corner. The velocity of his fastball is down significantly, but that may be the result of his injury. The Cubs haven’t much choice here. He has got to be in the back end of the rotation next year and they need to hope for the best.

Andrew Cashner was projected as the fifth starter, but he was hurt during a promising first start and has only now been able to start working his way back. He’ll probably come up for an audition in September, more likely than not in the bullpen. The Cubs need to count on him as a starter next year, otherwise they are in even bigger trouble.

Casey Coleman pitched reasonably well in August and September of 2010, but he has pitched badly this year. The speed of his pitches and his pitch selection is about the same. One difference is that teams are not swinging as much as last year, which means either he is not throwing strikes or they have figured out that he is not throwing strikes or near-strikes. Whatever it is, Coleman is a finesse pitcher and this season he has lacked finesse. He needs to go some to be a viable alternative in a starting role next year and he needs to show that in the coming month or so he will be in the rotation. I’m not expecting much here.

Rodrigo Lopez and Russ Ortiz. Bye-bye to both, maybe Lopez for long relief.

The Relievers:

Samardzija, Russell, Wood, Marshall, and Marmol have shown good signs and they form the basis of a good to excellent bullpen. I expect Grabow to be let go and good riddance. He can easily be replaced. Most of the failings and blowups from the pen can be attributed to the injuries and lack of deep outings from the starting rotation. These guys have pitched way more innings than you would expect them to pitch, which accounts for some of the decline in their performance.

I question how long Wood will stick around. He still has good stuff when he is used properly, but he signed at a discount. The selection of a new GM and manager will test his allegiance to Chicago and the strength of whatever assurances he has of a place with the organization after retirement. He could make a lot more money elsewhere. Losing him would leave a hole unless Samardzija were to step up to the eighth inning role.

Some people, including Samardzija himself, have thought about him as a potential starter. For my money, this is a bad idea. His generally good performance this season has been a real surprise. I wouldn’t rock the boat.

People have also suggested moving Sean Marshall back into the rotation. This idea bears serious consideration. Marshall is arguably the best all-around pitcher next to Garza on the team. He has a starter’s variety of plus pitches, a great curve, a good slider, and his fastball velocity has improved over the course of his career. His fastball on average is around 5mph faster than when he came up.

The Cubs rotation problems look so bleak right now that this is a move that might pay off. Russell could always move into Marshall’s current role, especially if Wood comes back and Samardzija continues to improve.

On the Farm:

The Cubs brass knows more or ought to know more about their prospects than any fan who does not see them day to day. Judging just on stats, there isn’t much there to provide immediate help. Most of their touted prospects, like MacNutt, have had indifferent success. Whitenack, their best AA prospect, has had Tommy John surgery this year. One intriguing prospect is Nick Struck, who has risen meteorically from A to AA and now AAA. He has pitched pretty well at all levels. Perhaps we will get a look at him in September if Quade thinks the team is finally eliminated and his job is done.

The Cubs don’t have a lot to offer in trade for established starters this off-season and what they have in the way of good prospects at the minor league level, they ought to hang on to and promote. They might be able to get pitching prospects who are near major league ready for veteran position players they don’t really need. Probably they have missed the boat on this gambit by standing pat at the trade deadline. By all accounts, they might have moved Marlon Byrd for one of Atlanta’s minor league pitchers. I doubt that guys like Byrd or Baker or Johnson would bring the same returns in the off-season and I think Johnson is a free agent then in any case.

The free agent crop of pitchers is very thin. The best is C.J. Wilson of the Texas Rangers who is approaching potential ace status. He is a left-hander, which is something the Cubs could use in their rotation. If the Cubs want to spend some money, and I mean some real money, like Zambrano money for five years, they will want to take a close look unless the Rangers lock him up with an extension. He is 30 years old now, so it has taken him a while to come into his own. Ideally, you would want him to be a couple of years younger to make a five or six year commitment.

The other intriguing pitcher available on the open market is Yu Darvish, a young Japanese right-hander who has put up absolutely dominant numbers. He is very young, 24 or 25, and rumor has it his team, the Nippon Ham-Fighters, is likely to make him available this off-season. There is sure to be a lot of interest from American teams, but the Cubs ought to think about getting into the bidding. They may not have good players, but they are going to have a lot of money to spend.

Two Strikes on Quade

Well, actually more like two hundred. I am trying to get away from commenting on every game or series. This is a lost season in any case, so why bother to repeat the same criticisms and observations over and over again.

In this case, though, the last two games, the Sunday night loss to the Cardinals and last night's shutout loss to the Braves capture the failings of this organization and this manager in a nutshell.

First off, the whole Castro business where he was moping around at SS after he made an error, eating sunflower seeds, and not paying attention. Not what you want your players to do, obviously. Lost in the shuffle, at least for a while, was the fact that neither Quade or his coaches or any of the other players on the field seemed to notice. It was left to perennial snot-nose ESPN color-man and manger-want-to-be-again Bobby Valentine to launch into a long diatribe about the incident for the Cubs to notice.

Quade's reaction was predictable. He called out his young shortstop in typical humiliating fashion and "benched" him for a day so that he might regain his mental equilibrium or some such stuff. Now I am not condoning Castro's on-field demeanor or lack of concentration or the careless errors. What gets me is that under Quade it is the young players who are consistently subjected to public criticism and that such criticism is only doled out after management has experienced a quasi-public humiliation. They are not reacting to the indifference and lack of attention and discipline their players routinely exhibit, they are reacting to the fact that outsiders have noticed it. And have noticed their own lack of attention and indiscipline. Which, of course, is why Quade and his friends should be replaced ASAP.

Last night's game illustrates a similar lesson not learned by Cubs management. They lost 3-0. They left 15 runners on base. Nine hits and, staggeringly, six walks, which, given the famous lack of patience shown by this team, is roughly a week's allotment.

How is this possible, you might ask, and how is it possible similar results have been the rule rather than the exception all year long? A better question would be how is it possible our manager has not noticed this all season long and how is it possible he has not identified the problem, which, in two words, is Byrd and Soriano back-to-back?

Last night, each of these stalwarts left six runners on base. They do this every night. Usually, an astute or casual observer can call the shot. Less than two outs, double play ball or popup on the first pitch, two outs, strikeout. Byrd has 23 RBI batting third or fifth. Soriano is batting .233 with RISP and .225 against RH pitchers. Byrd is batting .204 with RISP. Byrd has hit 98 times with RISP, Soriano 103 times. That's about 30% of their at-bats in each case.

So the question you have to ask yourself is how long is it going to take for even a baseball lifer to figure out that your apparent stubbornness in playing these guys every day and batting them fifth and sixth is a major reason why you rarely score more than three runs in a game and why you rarely win close games?

I don't want to blow my own horn here, but I figured this out before the season began. Actually, it sort of dawned on me early in 2010 in a big way when Piniella was doing the same thing. Quade claims to be a big believer in match-ups. It hasn't worked.