The Cubs were 13-7 in a mini-revival when I started this analysis, which is probably worse for the team than a sustained losing streak simply because, just as last season, it provides false hope and prevents the team getting a look at top prospects in August when the games for them are not just glorified AAA contests. However, they finished the home stand by losing four of five games, which is more like it, then losing the first two games of the Brewers series.
They have finally parted company with GM Jim Hendry, but they are in lame duck mode with caretaker GM Hendry-protégé Randy Bush, dilettante owner Tom Ricketts, meddlesome business guru Crane Kenney, and dead duck manager Mike Quade running the show. Not a good situation for a deeply flawed team.
Now is as good a time as any to take a look at next year, starting with a look at the team’s current players and prospects, beginning with pitching.
The Starters:
Carlos Zambrano, now suspended or on the disqualified list or something. The whole Zambrano history is virtually a lesson in how not to manage a baseball franchise. The latest episode is a case study in over-reaction mediated by the desire to dump a contract.
Worst case, Carlos Zambrano is now a #3 or #4 starter who can eat innings even if he is inconsistent. Without Zambrano, the Cubs have a big hole in the rotation and a hole that is not likely to be filled from within. Personally I have no problem with rehabilitating the former star, but the likelihood of that happening is pretty much directly related to who is chosen to become the new GM and manager.
More than likely, Zambrano wins his grievance and the Cubs either seek to unload him and agree to pay all or most of his salary next season or they reach a buyout arrangement and he becomes a free agent. Anyway you figure it, this creates a big question mark for next year and an immediate need for a starter.
This will be a major problem all around as there are no real high quality starters in the free agent pool next year and a trade for a Garza-type pitcher would decimate an already weakened minor league base. Not much on the horizon from the farm either, unless Nick Struck can make a big leap forward.
Ryan Dempster has a player option for next season. Dempster at this stage of his career is a #3 starter and not a very reliable one at that. He has pitched pretty well of late, but that is always his pattern and when he is bad he is very, very bad. In my opinion, he is getting a little long in the tooth. The Cubs should have thought about trading him this season, but they have missed the opportunity.
Dempster has one of those classic Jim Hendry deals where he has a player option for next year worth around $14M. Dempster is a big Hendry guy and the departure of the former GM might lead him to think about opting out. Previously, it was widely assumed this would never happen and that Hendry might very well negotiate an extension. If I were Dempster’s agent, I would try to get a one or two year extension and if not I would take a hike. If I’m the Cubs, I stick at the current contract, which has already vested, and let him make up his mind.
The question you have to ask about Dempster, and Zambrano and Wells also, is how much they have been affected by the simply awful fielding and hitting team the Cubs have deployed behind them. Dempster has lost a little bit off his fastball and his breaking stuff is not as sharp. Long term, the Cubs are in a comparable position with Dempster as they were with Ted Lilly last year. They decided then, quite wisely, that Lilly was not going to re-invent himself or get any better. Dempster is not going to re-invent himself either, nor is he going to get any better. The difference is that he is in control. Depending on how well he finishes out the season, if Dempster does opt in, the Cubs should think about trading him in the off-season anyway.
Matt Garza is under team control for a while. He has pitched well after a rough start, much better than his stats indicate. Though I would not consider him a genuine ace or #1, on an improved team or at least a team that routinely makes routine plays, he is the anchor of the staff right now. Whether it was worth trading four of your top ten prospects to obtain him is another question altogether.
Randy Wells hasn’t lived up to the promise of his rookie year. In his defense, he had a great spring, but then was hurt after his first start. The Cubs have rushed him back to the rotation because they had no one else to turn to. He seems to be improving a bit lately. Maybe he has turned the corner. The velocity of his fastball is down significantly, but that may be the result of his injury. The Cubs haven’t much choice here. He has got to be in the back end of the rotation next year and they need to hope for the best.
Andrew Cashner was projected as the fifth starter, but he was hurt during a promising first start and has only now been able to start working his way back. He’ll probably come up for an audition in September, more likely than not in the bullpen. The Cubs need to count on him as a starter next year, otherwise they are in even bigger trouble.
Casey Coleman pitched reasonably well in August and September of 2010, but he has pitched badly this year. The speed of his pitches and his pitch selection is about the same. One difference is that teams are not swinging as much as last year, which means either he is not throwing strikes or they have figured out that he is not throwing strikes or near-strikes. Whatever it is, Coleman is a finesse pitcher and this season he has lacked finesse. He needs to go some to be a viable alternative in a starting role next year and he needs to show that in the coming month or so he will be in the rotation. I’m not expecting much here.
Rodrigo Lopez and Russ Ortiz. Bye-bye to both, maybe Lopez for long relief.
The Relievers:
Samardzija, Russell, Wood, Marshall, and Marmol have shown good signs and they form the basis of a good to excellent bullpen. I expect Grabow to be let go and good riddance. He can easily be replaced. Most of the failings and blowups from the pen can be attributed to the injuries and lack of deep outings from the starting rotation. These guys have pitched way more innings than you would expect them to pitch, which accounts for some of the decline in their performance.
I question how long Wood will stick around. He still has good stuff when he is used properly, but he signed at a discount. The selection of a new GM and manager will test his allegiance to Chicago and the strength of whatever assurances he has of a place with the organization after retirement. He could make a lot more money elsewhere. Losing him would leave a hole unless Samardzija were to step up to the eighth inning role.
Some people, including Samardzija himself, have thought about him as a potential starter. For my money, this is a bad idea. His generally good performance this season has been a real surprise. I wouldn’t rock the boat.
People have also suggested moving Sean Marshall back into the rotation. This idea bears serious consideration. Marshall is arguably the best all-around pitcher next to Garza on the team. He has a starter’s variety of plus pitches, a great curve, a good slider, and his fastball velocity has improved over the course of his career. His fastball on average is around 5mph faster than when he came up.
The Cubs rotation problems look so bleak right now that this is a move that might pay off. Russell could always move into Marshall’s current role, especially if Wood comes back and Samardzija continues to improve.
On the Farm:
The Cubs brass knows more or ought to know more about their prospects than any fan who does not see them day to day. Judging just on stats, there isn’t much there to provide immediate help. Most of their touted prospects, like MacNutt, have had indifferent success. Whitenack, their best AA prospect, has had Tommy John surgery this year. One intriguing prospect is Nick Struck, who has risen meteorically from A to AA and now AAA. He has pitched pretty well at all levels. Perhaps we will get a look at him in September if Quade thinks the team is finally eliminated and his job is done.
The Cubs don’t have a lot to offer in trade for established starters this off-season and what they have in the way of good prospects at the minor league level, they ought to hang on to and promote. They might be able to get pitching prospects who are near major league ready for veteran position players they don’t really need. Probably they have missed the boat on this gambit by standing pat at the trade deadline. By all accounts, they might have moved Marlon Byrd for one of Atlanta’s minor league pitchers. I doubt that guys like Byrd or Baker or Johnson would bring the same returns in the off-season and I think Johnson is a free agent then in any case.
The free agent crop of pitchers is very thin. The best is C.J. Wilson of the Texas Rangers who is approaching potential ace status. He is a left-hander, which is something the Cubs could use in their rotation. If the Cubs want to spend some money, and I mean some real money, like Zambrano money for five years, they will want to take a close look unless the Rangers lock him up with an extension. He is 30 years old now, so it has taken him a while to come into his own. Ideally, you would want him to be a couple of years younger to make a five or six year commitment.
The other intriguing pitcher available on the open market is Yu Darvish, a young Japanese right-hander who has put up absolutely dominant numbers. He is very young, 24 or 25, and rumor has it his team, the Nippon Ham-Fighters, is likely to make him available this off-season. There is sure to be a lot of interest from American teams, but the Cubs ought to think about getting into the bidding. They may not have good players, but they are going to have a lot of money to spend.
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