Of course, I am a sucker for these pitchers' duels and closely played games. Actually, though, I don't understand how Giants fans can stand it. I mean, these guys have fantastic pitching, but they cannot hit their way out of a paper bag unless they are matched up against batting practice pitchers like Doug Davis and John Grabow.
In any case, these games were very much more like the games I had expected the Cubs to play before the season began, close, hard-fought, well-pitched contests where one or two plays would make the difference. Thursday's game was an especially pleasant surprise, though, as Zambrano had to be removed in the second inning with lower back stiffness and the superior pitching was provided by the Cubs bullpen and an especially unexpected source, Marcos Mateo.
I have been directed by my wife to issue a sincere mea culpa for doubting the Cubs comeback chances in the final two innings. When Grabow was inserted to start the 12th, I just about gave up hope. He did manage to load the bases, but somehow he escaped unscathed. When he came out for the 13th, I was getting really nervous.
As it turns out, that nervousness was justified, as Grabow gave up a two-out home run to Pablo Sandoval. OK, guys, I'm sorry I pronounced the game over at that point. Who would have thought they could come back and score four runs in the bottom of the 13th with two outs? I mean, how often does this happen for the Cubs? And two walk-off wins in as many days?
Mea culpa.
Hopefully the Sox series will continue this upward trend and give us something to watch through the doldrums of summer.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Time to Pull the Plug
OK, I know the team has had a lot of injuries, but I'm getting a little tired of seeing and hearing Mike Quade and Jim Hendry using this as an excuse. They had their entire starting roster together for quite a while early in the season with the exception of their fourth and fifth starters and they still played shoddy, incompetent, selfish baseball. They couldn't hit with men on base, couldn't score runs even though their first three hitters had a collective OBP of nearly .500. Nor could they catch or throw.
Now their fourth and fifth starters are a combined 4-18 and the team's record in these games is 8-24, which coincidentally is 16 games under .500 which is where the team's record now stands. Fine, but that does not mean you need to manage all of these games with the assumption you are going to lose. Looking back on this horrendous record, that seems to me what Quade routinely does, and that is one reason why I think he should be fired immediately.
Today's double-header loss to the Giants is just the culmination of this trend. The first game hinged on a single decision. With the team trailing 6-3 in the 4th but still in the game and still playing pretty well and taking good ABs against the Giants' starter Vogelsong, Doug Davis was due up with Soriano on 3rd and two outs. A pinch hitter was clearly in order. Davis was throwing batting practice through four innings. A run would bring you within two runs and bring up the top of the order. Instead, Quade let Davis bat and make the third out. Davis then proceeded to allow four more runs in the top of the 5th, letting the game slip out of reach. One decision, five runs. Incidentally, Davis should be DFAed tomorrow to make room for Barney on the roster.
Game 2: One out in the fifth. Sandoval hits a fly ball to center and Johnson appears to have thrown out the runner at the plate when Soto, carelessly flipping the ball from his glove to his hand to show the ump, drops the ball. The runner is called safe on a questionable call. Lopez, the Cubs pitcher, apparently loses his concentration and allows two hits. Quade summons the genuinely awful Grabow to put out the fire. Grabow, who should never ever be used in a game situation, proceeds to allow three consecutive hits to put the game on ice for the Giants.
Quade said after the game that he liked the matchups and that he liked the way Grabow performed in the first game. That's the problem right there. Grabow allowed a home run in the only inning he pitched in the first game. How do you figure that is a good performance? Also, Grabow has never been a solid left-handed specialist. His record against left-handed batters through his career is only slightly better than his record against right-handers and they are both pretty awful, to tell the truth.
Granted he hasn't got the greatest arsenal of quality relievers out there, but you cannot put in mop-up guys when all you need is one out in a tie game. That's losing baseball. That's the way you act when you have already lost the game in your head before it has even begun.
Now their fourth and fifth starters are a combined 4-18 and the team's record in these games is 8-24, which coincidentally is 16 games under .500 which is where the team's record now stands. Fine, but that does not mean you need to manage all of these games with the assumption you are going to lose. Looking back on this horrendous record, that seems to me what Quade routinely does, and that is one reason why I think he should be fired immediately.
Today's double-header loss to the Giants is just the culmination of this trend. The first game hinged on a single decision. With the team trailing 6-3 in the 4th but still in the game and still playing pretty well and taking good ABs against the Giants' starter Vogelsong, Doug Davis was due up with Soriano on 3rd and two outs. A pinch hitter was clearly in order. Davis was throwing batting practice through four innings. A run would bring you within two runs and bring up the top of the order. Instead, Quade let Davis bat and make the third out. Davis then proceeded to allow four more runs in the top of the 5th, letting the game slip out of reach. One decision, five runs. Incidentally, Davis should be DFAed tomorrow to make room for Barney on the roster.
Game 2: One out in the fifth. Sandoval hits a fly ball to center and Johnson appears to have thrown out the runner at the plate when Soto, carelessly flipping the ball from his glove to his hand to show the ump, drops the ball. The runner is called safe on a questionable call. Lopez, the Cubs pitcher, apparently loses his concentration and allows two hits. Quade summons the genuinely awful Grabow to put out the fire. Grabow, who should never ever be used in a game situation, proceeds to allow three consecutive hits to put the game on ice for the Giants.
Quade said after the game that he liked the matchups and that he liked the way Grabow performed in the first game. That's the problem right there. Grabow allowed a home run in the only inning he pitched in the first game. How do you figure that is a good performance? Also, Grabow has never been a solid left-handed specialist. His record against left-handed batters through his career is only slightly better than his record against right-handers and they are both pretty awful, to tell the truth.
Granted he hasn't got the greatest arsenal of quality relievers out there, but you cannot put in mop-up guys when all you need is one out in a tie game. That's losing baseball. That's the way you act when you have already lost the game in your head before it has even begun.
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Kansas City Blues
More mediocre baseball. Chalk up the Saturday loss to Quade who for some reason left Samardzija in the game even when it was obvious he could not throw a strike and did not have a lefty warming up even though every other Royals hitter due up was a left-handed batter. Having inserted the normally ineffective Grabow to start the inning and gotten an out, one wonders in any case why you would remove him in the first place or why you didn't just put in Russell to begin with. Of course, the Royals starter Duffy had 23 walks in 41 innings coming into the game, but the Cubs managed to get just one all night.
Sunday's game was another stinker, highlighted only by Mike Quade's hissy fit about Castro's lack of hustle after a diving attempt at Gordon's hit in the first inning. OK, this was a careless play, but if you are going to get snotty about it, why don't you call out Alfonso Soriano and the other veterans who seem to lack any attention to the plays going on around them altogether. I missed the play in question, but later on Castro ran into medium depth left field to catch a popup that would have landed a couple of feet from where Soriano was standing dumbfounded and not moving a muscle.
I kind of feel sorry for Quade whenever I hear him try to explain all this stuff, but I am beginning to think he is in way over his head. So are his coaches who were routinely sending runners to their doom at home and third base all through the series. I guess that is all about playing aggressive baseball so that the fans think you really care.
Sunday's game was another stinker, highlighted only by Mike Quade's hissy fit about Castro's lack of hustle after a diving attempt at Gordon's hit in the first inning. OK, this was a careless play, but if you are going to get snotty about it, why don't you call out Alfonso Soriano and the other veterans who seem to lack any attention to the plays going on around them altogether. I missed the play in question, but later on Castro ran into medium depth left field to catch a popup that would have landed a couple of feet from where Soriano was standing dumbfounded and not moving a muscle.
I kind of feel sorry for Quade whenever I hear him try to explain all this stuff, but I am beginning to think he is in way over his head. So are his coaches who were routinely sending runners to their doom at home and third base all through the series. I guess that is all about playing aggressive baseball so that the fans think you really care.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
The Sox Series
Or somewhat better play, same disappointing results. Arguably, the Cubs played well enough to win both the Yankees and White Sox series. However, they lost.
The games were certainly entertaining. I'm beginning to think now that entertainment is really all we are going to get from this team from this point on. Right now they are pretty much a .500 team, which, if loyal followers can recall, is about what we expected. We thought the team could hang in to contest a very weak division. Owing to a series of injuries and just sloppy and dumb play in general, they have come to a point where they are so far out of it that their generally competent play of late makes little difference.
One thing that stood out in the Sox series was how very close these two teams are to being mirror images of one another. I actually think the Cubs have a little more upside than the Sox, but that the Sox will give their fans more of a run for their money since they either have had the good fortune to play in an even worse division that the Cubs or they have somehow been able to survive to this point a lot closer to genuine mediocrity.
Whatever it was, the two sides gritted it out. The Cubs best game was Monday, when Zambrano overcame a poor beginning to dominate for 8 innings and Fukudome, Castro, and Pena, the only Cubs hitters paying close attention to the opposing pitcher, managed to produce 6 runs between them.
On Tuesday, the Cubs were a little unlucky that the rains came just when they seemed to have Mark Buerhle on the ropes. When play resumed, they could only manage to tie the game on a sacrifice fly and they had to remove Garza and rely on their bullpen.
On Wednesday, a game they figured to lose since Doug Davis was the starting pitcher, they at least made a contest of things. Personally I chalk up this loss to two bad decisions by Mike Quade. The first was allowing Davis to come back out for the 5th inning after he had clearly lost it in the 4th. Actually maybe three bad decisions because he still might have taken Davis out when the bases had been loaded after DeWitt botched up a routine ground ball.
Quade seems determined to get a set number of innings out of his starter no matter what is going on in the game, and this has cost the team some chances as the season has progressed. Guillen had no compunctions to removing Peavy when he had clearly lost it and this decision wound up winning the game for the White Sox.
The other really bad decision was allowing Koyie Hill to bat with Tony Campana at 3rd and one out in the 8th. Guillen had already successfully used the squeeze on two occasions in the series, almost pointing the way to a successful strategy for Quade to adopt. It has always been my observation than when an opposing manager uses the squeeze play it is almost inevitable the opponent will find an excuse to do the same thing later on.
Evidently Quade is the exception who proves the rule, as he was presented with an obvious squeeze situation and chose instead to allow the completely over-matched Hill, an excellent bunter, to strike out. There is just no excuse for this lapse of attention on Quade's part at this stage of the game. Either Hill bunts or he comes out for a pinch hitter who can just touch the ball because Campana is going to score on any play unless you pop out or strike out.
The games were certainly entertaining. I'm beginning to think now that entertainment is really all we are going to get from this team from this point on. Right now they are pretty much a .500 team, which, if loyal followers can recall, is about what we expected. We thought the team could hang in to contest a very weak division. Owing to a series of injuries and just sloppy and dumb play in general, they have come to a point where they are so far out of it that their generally competent play of late makes little difference.
One thing that stood out in the Sox series was how very close these two teams are to being mirror images of one another. I actually think the Cubs have a little more upside than the Sox, but that the Sox will give their fans more of a run for their money since they either have had the good fortune to play in an even worse division that the Cubs or they have somehow been able to survive to this point a lot closer to genuine mediocrity.
Whatever it was, the two sides gritted it out. The Cubs best game was Monday, when Zambrano overcame a poor beginning to dominate for 8 innings and Fukudome, Castro, and Pena, the only Cubs hitters paying close attention to the opposing pitcher, managed to produce 6 runs between them.
On Tuesday, the Cubs were a little unlucky that the rains came just when they seemed to have Mark Buerhle on the ropes. When play resumed, they could only manage to tie the game on a sacrifice fly and they had to remove Garza and rely on their bullpen.
On Wednesday, a game they figured to lose since Doug Davis was the starting pitcher, they at least made a contest of things. Personally I chalk up this loss to two bad decisions by Mike Quade. The first was allowing Davis to come back out for the 5th inning after he had clearly lost it in the 4th. Actually maybe three bad decisions because he still might have taken Davis out when the bases had been loaded after DeWitt botched up a routine ground ball.
Quade seems determined to get a set number of innings out of his starter no matter what is going on in the game, and this has cost the team some chances as the season has progressed. Guillen had no compunctions to removing Peavy when he had clearly lost it and this decision wound up winning the game for the White Sox.
The other really bad decision was allowing Koyie Hill to bat with Tony Campana at 3rd and one out in the 8th. Guillen had already successfully used the squeeze on two occasions in the series, almost pointing the way to a successful strategy for Quade to adopt. It has always been my observation than when an opposing manager uses the squeeze play it is almost inevitable the opponent will find an excuse to do the same thing later on.
Evidently Quade is the exception who proves the rule, as he was presented with an obvious squeeze situation and chose instead to allow the completely over-matched Hill, an excellent bunter, to strike out. There is just no excuse for this lapse of attention on Quade's part at this stage of the game. Either Hill bunts or he comes out for a pinch hitter who can just touch the ball because Campana is going to score on any play unless you pop out or strike out.
Monday, June 20, 2011
Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
Or something like that.
Since their return home, the Cubs have played pretty decent baseball. They have really been in each of the Brewers and Yankees games. To tell the truth, they actually match up very well against Milwaukee, which is another sloppy, right-hand dominated lineup. Aramis Ramirez has actually been paying attention when balls are hit at him, and he has been running out ground balls as well, just to single out one performer.
Which, of course, makes yesterday's stinker against the Yanks all the more uncomfortable to bear. Even the ESPN guys remarked that although the Cubs lost 10-4, they gave away at least 5 runs.
Some quick negative observations. Since Kerry Wood is on the DL, you cannot simply replace him with Jeff Samardzija or Chris Carpenter. You have to adjust by using Marshall more judiciously and hopefully stretching out your starters. That last bit is hard to do when there is so much sloppy play behind them, as there was last night. This is something Mike Quade doesn't actually seem to get.
Another thing Quade doesn't get is that you cannot keep playing people out of position and expect them to make plays. So the idea of moving Jeff Baker into RF last night cost the Cubs several runs. Of course, playing Alfonso Soriano in any position costs you big time. So does batting Blake DeWitt third and playing him in LF.
The real key to the loss last night, though, was the Castro play. Now I think the world of Castro as a hitter and he really has vast potential, but he just has to start thinking during the game. In this respect, Quade has to stop managing as a AA or AAA manager whose main goal is to nurture talent and to use mistakes as a teachable moment. Maybe they need a new infield coach.
Much of the careless, stupid play makes it very difficult to evaluate the pitchers who were formerly one of the strengths of this team. Wells last night, for example, pitched quite well. He left in a tie game that might just as easily been 4-1 Cubs. People think Zambrano and Garza have been disappointing, but when you look at the way the Cubs have played behind them, they might easily have 8 or 9 wins each.
Anyway, I don't want to carp too much about what has proved to be an entertaining week of baseball on the North Side. With the serious injury to Pujols, the Central Division is once again up for grabs.
It is not impossible the Cubs could make a run. Unlikely, but not impossible. Not that they are a good team by any means. The Sox series will tell us a lot. Kind of a scary thought in a way.
Since their return home, the Cubs have played pretty decent baseball. They have really been in each of the Brewers and Yankees games. To tell the truth, they actually match up very well against Milwaukee, which is another sloppy, right-hand dominated lineup. Aramis Ramirez has actually been paying attention when balls are hit at him, and he has been running out ground balls as well, just to single out one performer.
Which, of course, makes yesterday's stinker against the Yanks all the more uncomfortable to bear. Even the ESPN guys remarked that although the Cubs lost 10-4, they gave away at least 5 runs.
Some quick negative observations. Since Kerry Wood is on the DL, you cannot simply replace him with Jeff Samardzija or Chris Carpenter. You have to adjust by using Marshall more judiciously and hopefully stretching out your starters. That last bit is hard to do when there is so much sloppy play behind them, as there was last night. This is something Mike Quade doesn't actually seem to get.
Another thing Quade doesn't get is that you cannot keep playing people out of position and expect them to make plays. So the idea of moving Jeff Baker into RF last night cost the Cubs several runs. Of course, playing Alfonso Soriano in any position costs you big time. So does batting Blake DeWitt third and playing him in LF.
The real key to the loss last night, though, was the Castro play. Now I think the world of Castro as a hitter and he really has vast potential, but he just has to start thinking during the game. In this respect, Quade has to stop managing as a AA or AAA manager whose main goal is to nurture talent and to use mistakes as a teachable moment. Maybe they need a new infield coach.
Much of the careless, stupid play makes it very difficult to evaluate the pitchers who were formerly one of the strengths of this team. Wells last night, for example, pitched quite well. He left in a tie game that might just as easily been 4-1 Cubs. People think Zambrano and Garza have been disappointing, but when you look at the way the Cubs have played behind them, they might easily have 8 or 9 wins each.
Anyway, I don't want to carp too much about what has proved to be an entertaining week of baseball on the North Side. With the serious injury to Pujols, the Central Division is once again up for grabs.
It is not impossible the Cubs could make a run. Unlikely, but not impossible. Not that they are a good team by any means. The Sox series will tell us a lot. Kind of a scary thought in a way.
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Is Help on the Way?
The simple answer here is no, help is not on the way.
It is getting pretty painful to watch this team find new and more depressing ways to lose games, but the truth is that things are unlikely to get much better.
Where could help come from?
Well, the standard management line is that that, hey, they've had a bunch of injuries, but now they are getting healthy again, we can right the ship.
This isn't going to happen. First off, sure, Soriano, Byrd, and Johnson are better than the minor league replacements they have promoted, but the team was mediocre before then. So, yeah, they turned from mediocre to bad, but the best they can hope for is a return to mediocre.
The real injury problem has been their starters. They have been reduced to three major league arms and now four in their rotation, but they still have one spot that will not be repaired until Cashner returns and that is still a ways off.
Now the bullpen is suffering a bit and Wood will likely need to go on the DL to nurse a blister. We've already seen the extra pressure this has put on Marshall, who pitched in three of the four games in Philadelphia and was ineffective in two of them. Marshall has already had 30 appearances, and at that rate he is not going to hold up as an effective reliever as the season goes on.
As for the minor leaguers, they will slowly head back to their respective teams, not having shown much at the major league level. Le Mahieu is likely to be the first to go if the Cubs activate Baker before Monday's game. He showed nothing in his stint, though the Cubs have hopes of his becoming a major league player, at least in a utility role.
None of the outfield call-ups have amounted to much. Campana was a nice story and he showed he was a fast runner and a base-stealing threat, but you cannot steal first base, as the saying goes. One of the real problems with this team and their whole system is they do not teach players how to bat. These guys all just swing and swing at everything. To succeed in the majors, Campana needs to walk. I cannot figure out how a guy with such a small strike zone to begin with hasn't discovered this on his own, but the truth is if you look at his stats, he has never walked or taken pitches at any level he has played. You need to do better than one base-on-balls in forty at-bats.
I was surprised they did not call up Colvin right away and play him every day. When I saw his performance, I realized why. Right now, Colvin is just lost out there. If the opposing pitcher throws fast balls shoulder high a foot outside, he will simply strike out every time. He seems to have other holes in his swing, but he has never seen a pitch he did not want to swing at. The Cubs are going to want to keep a left-handed hitting outfielder to spell Johnson if and when he comes back from the DL, but I can't see what good it is to keep running Colvin out there day after day and having him fail.
As for the others, Snyder has been a total flop, which was not a surprise. The only reserve from AAA who has shown any ability is Montanez, who might make a decent fifth outfielder, especially against left-handed pitching.
I was also a little surprised the Cubs did not bring up any serious prospects from AA or even their best hitter at AAA, Bryan LaHair, who the last time I checked had 16 HRs and was hitting around .350. I know he is primarily a first baseman, but he played left field quite a bit in 2010. This guy is one of only three prospects the Cubs have in the minors at AA or AAA who seem to work the count and take walks even though he strikes out a lot. The others are Brett Jackson and Ryan Flaherty. I suppose that management thinks that they should not be rushed, but sooner or later they need to get a shot.
It is getting pretty painful to watch this team find new and more depressing ways to lose games, but the truth is that things are unlikely to get much better.
Where could help come from?
Well, the standard management line is that that, hey, they've had a bunch of injuries, but now they are getting healthy again, we can right the ship.
This isn't going to happen. First off, sure, Soriano, Byrd, and Johnson are better than the minor league replacements they have promoted, but the team was mediocre before then. So, yeah, they turned from mediocre to bad, but the best they can hope for is a return to mediocre.
The real injury problem has been their starters. They have been reduced to three major league arms and now four in their rotation, but they still have one spot that will not be repaired until Cashner returns and that is still a ways off.
Now the bullpen is suffering a bit and Wood will likely need to go on the DL to nurse a blister. We've already seen the extra pressure this has put on Marshall, who pitched in three of the four games in Philadelphia and was ineffective in two of them. Marshall has already had 30 appearances, and at that rate he is not going to hold up as an effective reliever as the season goes on.
As for the minor leaguers, they will slowly head back to their respective teams, not having shown much at the major league level. Le Mahieu is likely to be the first to go if the Cubs activate Baker before Monday's game. He showed nothing in his stint, though the Cubs have hopes of his becoming a major league player, at least in a utility role.
None of the outfield call-ups have amounted to much. Campana was a nice story and he showed he was a fast runner and a base-stealing threat, but you cannot steal first base, as the saying goes. One of the real problems with this team and their whole system is they do not teach players how to bat. These guys all just swing and swing at everything. To succeed in the majors, Campana needs to walk. I cannot figure out how a guy with such a small strike zone to begin with hasn't discovered this on his own, but the truth is if you look at his stats, he has never walked or taken pitches at any level he has played. You need to do better than one base-on-balls in forty at-bats.
I was surprised they did not call up Colvin right away and play him every day. When I saw his performance, I realized why. Right now, Colvin is just lost out there. If the opposing pitcher throws fast balls shoulder high a foot outside, he will simply strike out every time. He seems to have other holes in his swing, but he has never seen a pitch he did not want to swing at. The Cubs are going to want to keep a left-handed hitting outfielder to spell Johnson if and when he comes back from the DL, but I can't see what good it is to keep running Colvin out there day after day and having him fail.
As for the others, Snyder has been a total flop, which was not a surprise. The only reserve from AAA who has shown any ability is Montanez, who might make a decent fifth outfielder, especially against left-handed pitching.
I was also a little surprised the Cubs did not bring up any serious prospects from AA or even their best hitter at AAA, Bryan LaHair, who the last time I checked had 16 HRs and was hitting around .350. I know he is primarily a first baseman, but he played left field quite a bit in 2010. This guy is one of only three prospects the Cubs have in the minors at AA or AAA who seem to work the count and take walks even though he strikes out a lot. The others are Brett Jackson and Ryan Flaherty. I suppose that management thinks that they should not be rushed, but sooner or later they need to get a shot.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
The Skid: Part Two
I should probably change the title here, since the Cubs have won two in a row. Also, to be fair, this is the first game in my recollection where the Cubs manager, Mike Quade, actually out-managed his rival and came away with a win.
In any case, here is the rest of the skid analysis for what it is worth.
First off, I mentioned in earlier posts and articles at Bleacher Report, that the Cubs were too right-handed and that their overly aggressive approach at the plate made them easy to get out, especially for right-handed pitchers. I also noted that Tyler Colvin would have to play a lot in place of Soriano and Byrd to even begin to rectify this situation.
Well, Colvin played very little early on and then it was in some sort of ill-conceived platoon with Kosuke Fukudome. He was awful then and continued to play badly when he got some at-bats replacing Pena and the occasional start spelling Soriano.
I also noted - and I do not pretend to be the only commentator to do so - that the Cubs for the past few years have depended heavily on Aramis Ramirez hitting for power and driving in runs. Their whole lineup is built around his abilities and when he has been hurt or unproductive, as in 2009 and 2010, they did not score runs. Thus far, Ramirez, though apparently healthy, has not hit for power, nor has he hit in the clutch. Also, his whole approach at the plate has changed. He is not working the count, nor is he shortening up with two strikes.
The same overly aggressive tendencies have always been a part of Byrd's makeup and he has demonstrated them throughout the season before his injury. This guy batted near .300, never took a pitch, and despite batting behind Fukudome, Barney, and Castro who had OBPs in the .400 range early on, drove in 11 runs.
I don't want to single out just these players, and if I wanted to single out a single truly awful player, that would be Alfonso Soriano. The thing their performance illustrates, though, is that this is a team that plays, by and large, stupid baseball. Even the young guys like Barney and Castro, who should be given the benefit of the doubt, get themselves out too easily in clutch situations and make dumb or careless plays in the field.
They play defense the same way. This is a team that lacks attention and patience and character. There are only two players who demonstrate these traits day in and day out among the position players whether they are over-matched or disadvantaged in some other way, and those guys are Kosuke Fukudome and Carlos Pena.
Barney and Castro have some talent that needs to be developed. Soto used to be an intelligent player, but he is just having a bad, bad year at the plate.
This kind of play has been the norm for the Cubs when they are faced with adversity for the last two years, and really during the last years of the Dusty Baker era as well. This organization does not value or develop baseball players, guys who put themselves and their team in a position to win consistently. Nor do they acquire such players by trades or free agency.
Bottom line, to succeed, that has got to change, beginning at the top and heading down through the whole player development chain. Zambrano was right, this team plays embarrassing baseball. You can say they are underachieving and all that baloney, but they are not going to get dramatically better when their injured players return from the DL because they were not playing good ball before they got hurt.
In any case, here is the rest of the skid analysis for what it is worth.
First off, I mentioned in earlier posts and articles at Bleacher Report, that the Cubs were too right-handed and that their overly aggressive approach at the plate made them easy to get out, especially for right-handed pitchers. I also noted that Tyler Colvin would have to play a lot in place of Soriano and Byrd to even begin to rectify this situation.
Well, Colvin played very little early on and then it was in some sort of ill-conceived platoon with Kosuke Fukudome. He was awful then and continued to play badly when he got some at-bats replacing Pena and the occasional start spelling Soriano.
I also noted - and I do not pretend to be the only commentator to do so - that the Cubs for the past few years have depended heavily on Aramis Ramirez hitting for power and driving in runs. Their whole lineup is built around his abilities and when he has been hurt or unproductive, as in 2009 and 2010, they did not score runs. Thus far, Ramirez, though apparently healthy, has not hit for power, nor has he hit in the clutch. Also, his whole approach at the plate has changed. He is not working the count, nor is he shortening up with two strikes.
The same overly aggressive tendencies have always been a part of Byrd's makeup and he has demonstrated them throughout the season before his injury. This guy batted near .300, never took a pitch, and despite batting behind Fukudome, Barney, and Castro who had OBPs in the .400 range early on, drove in 11 runs.
I don't want to single out just these players, and if I wanted to single out a single truly awful player, that would be Alfonso Soriano. The thing their performance illustrates, though, is that this is a team that plays, by and large, stupid baseball. Even the young guys like Barney and Castro, who should be given the benefit of the doubt, get themselves out too easily in clutch situations and make dumb or careless plays in the field.
They play defense the same way. This is a team that lacks attention and patience and character. There are only two players who demonstrate these traits day in and day out among the position players whether they are over-matched or disadvantaged in some other way, and those guys are Kosuke Fukudome and Carlos Pena.
Barney and Castro have some talent that needs to be developed. Soto used to be an intelligent player, but he is just having a bad, bad year at the plate.
This kind of play has been the norm for the Cubs when they are faced with adversity for the last two years, and really during the last years of the Dusty Baker era as well. This organization does not value or develop baseball players, guys who put themselves and their team in a position to win consistently. Nor do they acquire such players by trades or free agency.
Bottom line, to succeed, that has got to change, beginning at the top and heading down through the whole player development chain. Zambrano was right, this team plays embarrassing baseball. You can say they are underachieving and all that baloney, but they are not going to get dramatically better when their injured players return from the DL because they were not playing good ball before they got hurt.
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
The Skid: Part One
What can you say about this season?
Well, it is-one third over give or take a few games, the Cubs are 12 games under .500 in the midst of a seven game losing streak and their hopes are sinking fast.
How come?
Lets start with the pitching.
First off, they counted their starting pitching as a strong suit after they traded for Garza, so much so they felt confident in releasing Carlos Silva and trading Tom Gorzelanny. Not great losses to be sure, but injuries to Wells and Cashner eliminated 40% of the starting five, forcing them to dip into the bullpen to press James Russell into the rotation and to bring up Casey Coleman, the only minor league arm who could conceivably be given a shot then. Neither worked out.
I said at the time that the only chance they had was to stay close to .500 and wait things out. They haven’t. Russell, good in relief, was a bad starter. Coleman pitched a little better than his record indicates, but he too was a flop. The Cubs have found it necessary to dig into the scrap heap to resurrect the careers of Doug Davis and Rodrigo Lopez, two certified has-beens. Lopez has been a disaster, though he may yet fill the mop-up role previously designated for Samardzija. Davis is likely to continue as the fifth starter until Cashner returns. That seems a way off.
You cannot expect much from Davis. He pitched well against the Astros. Maybe one half-decent start every third outing? Were the Cubs by some miracle able to attain some level of respectability before the trade deadline, they’d have to get some help if Cashner’s return was at all delayed.
So far Garza has been inconsistent, as has Dempster. Zambrano has been the only ray of light among the starters. He would probably have 8 or 9 wins on even a mediocre team. Of course, everyone hates him now because he has had the temerity to state the obvious fact that the Cubs are playing dumb, crappy baseball. What a nut!
The woes afflicting the starting rotation have forced Mike Quade to manage his bullpen in unorthodox ways. This is starting to take its toll among the arms the Cubs have counted on to preserve wins. Lets face it, you have to count on getting six innings from all your starters most of the time, and seven or eight from your big guns. The only pitcher delivering on this promise consistently now is Carlos Zambrano. Given that the emergency starters are going less than five, you have a real problem.
So far Quade has done a reasonable job in reserving his three solid relievers – Marshall, Wood, and Marmol – for games in which the team has a lead to protect or a shot at winning. Lately Marmol has shown signs of a slump when he comes back two or three days in a row, but it is hard to argue that these stressful appearances were unnecessary. The real problems are in middle relief.
The Cubs chose to use James Russell, the only other reliable arm in the bullpen, as a starter. That has forced some of the remaining arms into unaccustomed roles. They started the season with four solid relievers, two worthless or inconsistent pitchers – Grabow and Samardzija – and an unknown quantity in Mateo. Mateo just fell apart and the various AAA replacements have been pretty bad. Grabow is hardly ever used. It appears that Quade has almost no confidence in him, with good reason. Samardzija was actually a pleasant surprise for a while until the Cubs began to use him in relatively meaningful situations, whereupon he has started to revert to his old, ineffective and inconsistent ways. Maybe with the return of Wells and Garza to the rotation, the bullpen can achieve some stability with Grabow and Lopez taking the mop-up roles.
Notwithstanding all the horrors the above analysis implies, it has not been the pitching by and large that has led to the Cubs really disgraceful performance to date. Until the latest skid, I was rather of the opinion the team might just survive near the .500 mark to right the ship. After all, you can count 8 or 10 games they really should have won, several on the current streak.
No, the real problem lies with the rest of team. As Bob Brenly has characterized them, they are a “dead-ass team.”
More on this in the next installment.
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