Sunday, June 12, 2011

Is Help on the Way?

The simple answer here is no, help is not on the way.

It is getting pretty painful to watch this team find new and more depressing ways to lose games, but the truth is that things are unlikely to get much better.

Where could help come from?

Well, the standard management line is that that, hey, they've had a bunch of injuries, but now they are getting healthy again, we can right the ship.

This isn't going to happen. First off, sure, Soriano, Byrd, and Johnson are better than the minor league replacements they have promoted, but the team was mediocre before then. So, yeah, they turned from mediocre to bad, but the best they can hope for is a return to mediocre.

The real injury problem has been their starters. They have been reduced to three major league arms and now four in their rotation, but they still have one spot that will not be repaired until Cashner returns and that is still a ways off.

Now the bullpen is suffering a bit and Wood will likely need to go on the DL to nurse a blister. We've already seen the extra pressure this has put on Marshall, who pitched in three of the four games in Philadelphia and was ineffective in two of them. Marshall has already had 30 appearances, and at that rate he is not going to hold up as an effective reliever as the season goes on.

As for the minor leaguers, they will slowly head back to their respective teams, not having shown much at the major league level. Le Mahieu is likely to be the first to go if the Cubs activate Baker before Monday's game. He showed nothing in his stint, though the Cubs have hopes of his becoming a major league player, at least in a utility role.

None of the outfield call-ups have amounted to much. Campana was a nice story and he showed he was a fast runner and a base-stealing threat, but you cannot steal first base, as the saying goes. One of the real problems with this team and their whole system is they do not teach players how to bat. These guys all just swing and swing at everything. To succeed in the majors, Campana needs to walk. I cannot figure out how a guy with such a small strike zone to begin with hasn't discovered this on his own, but the truth is if you look at his stats, he has never walked or taken pitches at any level he has played. You need to do better than one base-on-balls in forty at-bats.

I was surprised they did not call up Colvin right away and play him every day. When I saw his performance, I realized why. Right now, Colvin is just lost out there. If the opposing pitcher throws fast balls shoulder high a foot outside, he will simply strike out every time. He seems to have other holes in his swing, but he has never seen a pitch he did not want to swing at. The Cubs are going to want to keep a left-handed hitting outfielder to spell Johnson if and when he comes back from the DL, but I can't see what good it is to keep running Colvin out there day after day and having him fail.

As for the others, Snyder has been a total flop, which was not a surprise. The only reserve from AAA who has shown any ability is Montanez, who might make a decent fifth outfielder, especially against left-handed pitching.

I was also a little surprised the Cubs did not bring up any serious prospects from AA or even their best hitter at AAA, Bryan LaHair, who the last time I checked had 16 HRs and was hitting around .350. I know he is primarily a first baseman, but he played left field quite a bit in 2010. This guy is one of only three prospects the Cubs have in the minors at AA or AAA who seem to work the count and take walks even though he strikes out a lot. The others are Brett Jackson and Ryan Flaherty. I suppose that management thinks that they should not be rushed, but sooner or later they need to get a shot.

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