Monday, August 8, 2011

Taking Stock After the Trade Deadline

We have seen the trade deadline pass with only one significant move by the Cubs, trading Kosuke Fukudome for virtually no return and no salary savings. I suppose that, since Hendry had stated he would not trade anyone who figured in his plans for next year, all these mopes on the team now figure in his plans for next year.



Fukudome was allegedly traded because he was blocking Tyler Colvin. Come on, whatever you think of Fukudome, he was not blocking Colvin. Soriano and Byrd were blocking Colvin, who might have been part of a three way outfield platoon last season if the Cubs were not afraid of exposing his limitations then.


Since then, the Cubs have experienced a five game losing streak and a seven game winning streak before Sunday’s unfortunate loss to the Reds. Colvin has started only five games since his call up, which makes you wonder what is going on in the Cubs manager’s head. Actually, maybe not, since it is the same calculus that applied to last season. Quade is managing for his job. He is not about to take chances.


What I don’t get is why someone in upper management does not tell this guy whether he is out or in or just plain tell him to play the players that upper management wants to test. Quade talks on and on about playing the matchups. This is just baloney. It seems to be the one statistical set of numbers he believes in, but, of course, it is the least reliable because these pitcher/hitter matchups are almost always based on statistically meaningless samples, like, eight or ten at-bats.


As a fan and a student of the game, rather like last year with Piniella, I just wonder when Ricketts or somebody is going to pull the plug on this whole sorry set of baseball brains. Just put them and their fans out of their misery or just plain announce that you are going to stick with them and let everyone move on.


As far as the current Cubs go, I actually do not have a lot of problems with the Cubs pitching. It looks worse on paper than it actually is, especially if they can straighten out Wells and get Cashner healthy. Even if one of these developments does not pan out, they can always sign a journeyman starter in the off-season to eat some innings. Guys like Jon Garland, maybe an unfortunate example since he is hurt now, are always available.


The real problem with this team is Jim Hendry. The real problem Hendry has is in his evaluation of personnel and his idea of the kind of team he is building. Everybody knows that to win nowadays, and especially in Wrigley Field where even if it is 90 outside, the wind can be blowing in, you need pitching, defense, speed, and balance.


Hendry looks at the Cubs roster and thinks, well, Soto's a pretty good player, he's had some great years and he's not an embarrassment, Pena can take pitches and hit home runs, Ramirez is under-rated when he is healthy, Soriano hits home runs, Byrd hits for average when no one is on base, etc., etc. What he does not understand is that while taken individually, they look OK, taken as a team they are actually less than their component parts.


I think that is because the assumption with Cubs management is that all of these guys will produce to the maximum of their individual strengths and that their weaknesses will be somehow compensated for over the course of the season. Actually, I think you have to assume the opposite, that your veteran players are going to perform more or less the way they have always performed throughout their careers and maybe worse as they get older. So if you put together a group of players with largely the same set of growing weaknesses and diminishing strengths, you get a team like the Cubs, a team that is actually much, much worse than the sum total of its parts.


Right now the Cubs have five veteran players in the situation I described above. At least three or four have got to go for the team to win consistently. It just seems unconscionable to me that Hendry did nothing to speed this process before the trade deadline even though teams inquired on at least four of this quintet. It is similarly unconscionable for Quade to continue to play these guys every day and to play the bench players like Johnson and Baker when he knows exactly what they can do and the AAA and AA rosters are stocked with potential replacements about whom the Cubs have no idea how they will compete at the major league level.

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