Thoughts on the Garza Rumors

Or what's going on behind the curtain?

I'm continually reading about the potential Garza rumors.  Two or three things stand out among all the fluff.

First off, most of them are nonsense.  Garza is available for two months, then he is a free agent.  So acquiring him is only an option to teams that are in desperate need of a quality starter to carry them to the playoffs.  Or to teams that can afford to sign him to an immediate extension.  Or both.  That is to say that, under the best of circumstances, Garza is worth maybe three or four wins over what you have now.  So you have to be that close for it to matter.

So the presence of the Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres in this mix makes little sense.  Similarly the Indians and Pirates make no sense here because, although he would help either of them a lot, the idea they might sign him next year is pretty remote, so they are unlikely to come up with the kind of prospect or prospects that could benefit the Cubs.  Not that the Cubs are above making dumb trades.

So who's left?  The AL East, mainly the Red Sox, Yankees, and Orioles.  Then the Rangers.  Finally the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.  All of these teams are contenders who could use Garza's services and all of them could afford to extend him or sign him next year as a free agent.  However, one wonders who they have in their systems that would make for a reasonable return to the Cubs.  Mike Ott?  Give me a break.

Which brings us to the second point, namely, what is Garza really worth?  And what is what Garza is really worth really worth to the Cubs?

Back in 2010, the Cubs traded away four highly regarded prospects to Tampa Bay in exchange for Garza.  At the time, people, myself included, rather thought the trade made no sense, given the Cubs were a mediocre team tending toward the truly awful team they became.

But actually, it turns out the Cubs gave up relatively little in the deal.  Chirinos, the catcher, was their second best catching prospect, but he hasn't made it.  Similarly Guyer, the outfielder, has flopped.  Fuld, the other outfielder, was kind of a throw in who served as a backup defensive player, but nothing more.  Lee, the Cubs second best shortstop prospect behind Castro, was thought to be a key to the deal.  Although he has shown signs of being ready to make the jump to the bigs, he was hurt this year and has missed the whole season.

The only real acquisition turned out to be Chris Archer, who was probably the Cubs best pitching prospect at AA.  Archer has finally made it to the majors and he is doing pretty well.  He has started nine games, going 4-3 with an ERA under 3 and a really good WHIP.

So actually, the Rays swapped Garza for a potentially equal replacement who made it to the majors in three years time.  Bear in mind, the Rays had plenty of pitching that was close enough to the major leagues they could afford to be patient.  The Cubs would be lucky to get such a player in exchange for Garza now.  At the time of the trade, Garza was under team control for three years, not two months.

Which leads me to the third observation, which is that the Cubs are all about money and making it on their own terms, a kind of business school sports model run off the tracks.  Read the Sullivan interview with Epstein in the Tribune this morning and tell me if I am not right.

Now I know that baseball is a business and all that.  But the Cubs are still the most profitable team in baseball despite declining attendance and the lack of the sort of high-profile amenities other teams have.  And it is possible to retain fan interest and field a reasonably competitive team whilst rebuilding the organization.  Last time I looked the Red Sox were in first place even after picking up the pieces following an epic collapse and a throw-away season.

Anyway, a close reading of the article reveals that the Cubs want to succeed only on their own terms.  They will only act like a major market franchise when they can finance that activity from increased profits.  So as far as the Garza deal goes, if they trade Garza, they are essentially saying they cannot afford to sign him for four years and the $15 or $16MM per year it would take to do it.  Or they don't believe they will be serious contenders in 2015, more like 2017 or 2018, which is bad news for the fans, to say the least.