Thursday, July 24, 2014

Recent Developments

One saw the good and the ugly in the first two games against the Padres at Wrigley Field this week.  On Tuesday, the Cubs played a great game to top San Diego 6-0.  Especially encouraging was the performance of rookie pitcher Kyle Hendricks who so far looks like a keeper.

Rizzo continued his hot streak and Alcantara continued to impress.  Alcantara has shown a lot so far.  I was impressed with his AB yesterday when he walked to load the bases even though the Cubs rally fizzled after that, more so than his homer the day before.

Yesterday was just awful.  Eleven walks to a team that is notoriously swing happy.  Go figure.  Wada is obviously not the answer and Grimm continues to be wild all the time.  Probably time to send him down.

I was surprised by some of the Cubs personnel moves this week.  Although Barney has not hit much over the past two seasons, I still thought he had a future with the Cubs as a utility guy.  Actually he has done a lot better the past month when he has had regular playing time and his splits against left-handed pitching are very good, right up around .300 with a .700 OPS.

Olt had to go down as he was just not hitting anything at all.  He has the makings of a decent 3B if he could even hit .250 as he has real power and walks a lot as well, or at least he has walked a lot before he started striking out nearly every AB.  You wonder whether these infield moves presage a promotion for Baez or even Bryant or whether they mean the Cubs just overvalue Bonafacio and Valbuena, two guys who are substitutes at best.

I saw an interesting article in Sports Illustrated this week concerning how radical defensive alignments have affected hitting and run production.  Worth a read.  Personally I think the current dominance of pitching has more to do with defensive strategy and the lack of plate discipline, especially with two strikes, than the emergence of power pitching.

If you really look around both leagues you do not see a preponderance of super-dominant pitchers such as were the norm in past era of pitching dominance. I mean, sure, there is Kershaw in LA and Hernandez in Seattle, and, of course, Wainwright in St. Louis, but I don't think even these guys are in the same category as Gibson and Jenkins and some of the others of the last pitching dominated era.  Anyway, there are certainly not more of them and the quality of pitching in general is a lot more diluted despite the emergence of new pitches and better conditioning.

The article makes the point that the current shifts have really shut down left-handed bats.  It really forces guys to use the whole field and to shorten up with two strikes.  However, players nowadays are reluctant to change their style of play, in some cases to the detriment of their career.  I think Carlos Pena was the first guy whose career broke down because of the shifts, but, as the article makes clear, he is not the last.  In a way, that makes Anthony Rizzo's season a lot more impressive, though clearly the shifts have hurt is batting average.

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