Heyward Signs

I think this is a plus for the Cubs, especially if they play him in center field and do not trade away Soler or Schwarber.  Heyward is a genuinely good outfielder and a consistently good patient hitter.  He is by no means a great hitter, though, and in that sense he is a little overvalued, at least to my way of thinking.  I definitely see Heyward as a potential improvement in center field over Fowler and, honestly, about the equivalent as a hitter in the Cubs alignment.

No question the Cubs have strengthened themselves short term with Zobrist and Lackey, and, again, potentially long term with Heyward.  I qualify that assessment of Heyward mainly because his new contract has multiple opt-out clauses.




Whether they need to move either Soler or Baez right now is a moot point.  Personally, I think you do this only if you can get a third ace with long term team control.  So far I do not see that sort of pitcher being available right now, other than Cueto, who is, of course, a free agent, and so costs nothing but money.

Latest Moves

I think the Cubs made some smart moves at the Winter Meetings on Tuesday.  Reports were coming in that Ben Zobrist was fielding offers of four years and $80MM, which, despite the player's talents and strong points, is a clearly crazy number for a 34 year old super sub.  The Cubs landed him for four years and $56MM, which is a much more reasonable figure.  Zobrist slots in nicely at second base and as a substitute corner outfielder and bench player.  His presence gives the Cubs a chance to bring Javier Baez along more slowly as well, should they wish to do so.

The second move was to trade Starlin Castro to the Yankees.  The team got pretty much the best deal they could for him.  Actually Warren is a pretty good long reliever/spot starter who is young enough to maybe turn out to be more.  I'd have hoped to get more in the way or prospects for Castro, but the truth is, except for his September run, Castro has been pretty awful two of the last three years.

These moves leave the team with only one gaping hole to fill, namely, center field.  There is some talk of their making a play for Heyward, but, again, Heyward is not really a center fielder.  More likely the Cubs, failing to entice Dexter Fowler back, will opt for cheaper alternatives.  Probably along the lines of Span or Parra.  Neither of these guys can hit lefties all that well, but a platoon might be in order with Baez if he works out or Austin Jackson, another free agent who has been bouncing around for the past two years but once held high promise.

Say It Isn't So

I've been pretty much on-board with most of the recent moves by the Cubs brass, but the rumor that the team is looking to trade for a first-class closer strikes me as a bit odd, unless that closer is Aroldis Chapman.  Even then the price is likely to be pretty high.  If is is Papelbon, well, that is bizarre unless you are trying to reconstruct the 2007 Red Sox nine years later.

Relief pitchers are a notoriously fickle bunch with a few exceptions, so giving up serious prospects or serious money is a risky business,  By and large, these players pitch in relief because they are not good enough or consistent enough to start.  Also, I would not identify closer as an area of weakness for the Cubs.  Rondon was really outstanding through most of the season with the exception of a two week stretch in May when he lost his closing role.

Maybe the guy they are looking at is Drew Storen, who is not a bad acquisition in general, as the Nationals are shopping him and he will not cost much in a trade.  Lets hope this doesn't turn out to be a big mistake.

John Lackey

The Cubs have signed John Lackey to a two year deal for $36MM total.  Kind of a conservative move on Epstein and Hoyer's part, but probably justifiable in relation to the outrageous sums being tossed around in free agency this year, especially for pitchers.  The signing is not without risk, in that Lackey is, after all, 37 years old.  However, he was quite effective last year for the Cardinals and there is no reason to suppose he does not have at least another year in him.

As we have noted before, the Cubs are far more likely to be in a fine-tuning mode this off-season.  They won 97 games with no real fifth starter before September and third and fourth starters who showed some serious flaws in the course of the year, particularly Hammel, who was pretty much worthless after the All-Star Break.  My guess is there is not much confidence in Hammel for the future, but unless they want to trade a young player with serious potential, they are likely to stick with him at least for the time being.

For certain, it seems that signing Lackey puts Samardzija and Cueto off the radar.  Samardzija has always been valued by the Cubs around $18MM per year.  It looks as if he is able to command more in the market this season despite his disappointing performance in 2015, so the risk there at the higher price and for more years outweighs the benefits.  Similarly, Cueto is going to bring in big bucks, but with hints of some arm trouble in his past, he probably does not justify the money or commitment.

Mike Leake might still be an option.  He is the youngest of the established free agents and he would not cost a draft choice.  However, he would not be cheap and the Cubs might just need extra money to pursue a center fielder.  Their options there are pretty limited.  They can probably sign Austin Jackson, but, of course, Jackson's stock is down right now.  Fowler and Denard Span are the only established free agents around right now.  In the case of Span, there are some doubts about his health.  Fowler probably wants more years than the Cubs are prepared to offer.  Heyward, of course, is the big outfield prize, but one doubts the Cubs can afford the commitment after the Lackey signing.  Anyway, he is not that great a fit in center field.

I suppose the Cubs would like to trade Baez or Castro to get center field help should they not land a decent free agent, but I have no idea what they could get for either one or who is available in the trade market right now.  It should be interesting.  They are said to be asking Baez to play center field a bit in winter ball.  Given the perceived weakness of the outfield defense, though, my guess is they are looking for a veteran left-handed hitter who covers a lot of ground even if he is not the offensive threat that Fowler was last year.

Cubs Lose out on Price

Rumor had it that the Cubs were in on the David Price market, but it appears they have lost out to the Red Sox.  Price certainly made sense for the Cubs.  He and Greinke are the two genuine aces on the market this winter.  Plus, signing him would not cost a draft pick.  Price, however, signed a humongous deal with Boston.  Personally, although he is a terrific pitcher, one wonders whether anyone is really worth that kind of commitment over seven years at his age.

With Zimmerman gone, probably the only really elite arm available is Cueto, who recently turned down a bunch of money from Arizona, six years, $120MM.  Cueto is good, but he is also on the verge of his thirties now and has lost some time to injuries recently.  He also would not cost a draft pick, but I have some doubts the Cubs want to go that long and that high.  I think Samardzija makes a lot more sense for the Cubs, especially as he would be slotted in as a #3 starter and reunited with Bosio who seems to understand his style.  Still, I would not be disappointed in getting Cueto at all and the price is not that great when you compare it to Lester, for example.

The Cubs need to add at least one starting pitcher this off-season.  Maybe two, as Hammel is definitely not the most reliable pitcher and he has shown himself to be a first-half star throughout his career.  However, I don't think it is time to push the panic button.  The Cubs match up pretty well with the Indians, Padres, and Braves if they are looking to make a trade.  I could see them parting with Castro or Baez and some minor leaguers who are blocked, but not with Soler.  At least I hope not, as I think there is a reason everyone wants this kid and so a good reason not to let him go cheap.

People are forgetting that the Cubs won 97 games last year despite not having a reliable fifth starter and actually not having a particularly reliable fourth starter through the second half.  They also were missing their everyday right fielder for big chunks of time and went on a substantial winning streak in August when they played Chris Coghlan at second base most of the time.  Not to mention they had no bench whatsoever until September.

Aside from the pitcher, the Cubs need a center fielder, preferably one who can lead off and get on base.  This is on the assumption they cannot bring back Fowler, which, I think, is a fair assumption.  Austin Jackson makes sense as a fourth or fifth outfielder, but they really need to go after another player in the Fowler mode.  I would suggest going hard for Jason Heyward if I thought he could play center field on an everyday basis, but this does not seem very likely.  The other aspect of things I would not discount is the Cubs having an underachieving pitcher on their radar.  They have had great success resurrecting players in that mold in the last few years, Arrieta being the most impressive find.