John Lackey

The Cubs have signed John Lackey to a two year deal for $36MM total.  Kind of a conservative move on Epstein and Hoyer's part, but probably justifiable in relation to the outrageous sums being tossed around in free agency this year, especially for pitchers.  The signing is not without risk, in that Lackey is, after all, 37 years old.  However, he was quite effective last year for the Cardinals and there is no reason to suppose he does not have at least another year in him.

As we have noted before, the Cubs are far more likely to be in a fine-tuning mode this off-season.  They won 97 games with no real fifth starter before September and third and fourth starters who showed some serious flaws in the course of the year, particularly Hammel, who was pretty much worthless after the All-Star Break.  My guess is there is not much confidence in Hammel for the future, but unless they want to trade a young player with serious potential, they are likely to stick with him at least for the time being.

For certain, it seems that signing Lackey puts Samardzija and Cueto off the radar.  Samardzija has always been valued by the Cubs around $18MM per year.  It looks as if he is able to command more in the market this season despite his disappointing performance in 2015, so the risk there at the higher price and for more years outweighs the benefits.  Similarly, Cueto is going to bring in big bucks, but with hints of some arm trouble in his past, he probably does not justify the money or commitment.

Mike Leake might still be an option.  He is the youngest of the established free agents and he would not cost a draft choice.  However, he would not be cheap and the Cubs might just need extra money to pursue a center fielder.  Their options there are pretty limited.  They can probably sign Austin Jackson, but, of course, Jackson's stock is down right now.  Fowler and Denard Span are the only established free agents around right now.  In the case of Span, there are some doubts about his health.  Fowler probably wants more years than the Cubs are prepared to offer.  Heyward, of course, is the big outfield prize, but one doubts the Cubs can afford the commitment after the Lackey signing.  Anyway, he is not that great a fit in center field.

I suppose the Cubs would like to trade Baez or Castro to get center field help should they not land a decent free agent, but I have no idea what they could get for either one or who is available in the trade market right now.  It should be interesting.  They are said to be asking Baez to play center field a bit in winter ball.  Given the perceived weakness of the outfield defense, though, my guess is they are looking for a veteran left-handed hitter who covers a lot of ground even if he is not the offensive threat that Fowler was last year.