Free Agents

The Cubs will potentially lose nine players to free agency this year.  Most of them are pitchers: Arrieta, Davis, Lackey, Uehara, and Duensing.  They will also lose catchers Avila and Rivera and outfielder Jay.  So there are surely holes to fill and not much in the way of players to promote this year.

The Cubs have made qualifying offers to Arrieta and Davis.  Arrieta is a risky guy to sign to more than a four year deal, actually a risky proposition any way you look at it.  Rumor has it he wants six years.  He has had a significant decline in performance since the middle of 2016.  My guess is the Cubs will make a decent offer of no more than four years and start looking elsewhere if it winds up on hold.  Davis is another story.  He will be a lot cheaper than Arrieta and would undoubtedly accept four years.  He put up great numbers especially early in the season, though he walked a lot of hitters especially later on in the season.  Of course, all the Cubs relievers started nibbling either from overuse or some other reason, so maybe there is less concern there than meets the eye.  Personally, I am not a big fan of signing relievers to big money, multi-year contracts.  These guys will often disappoint.

For some reason, Lackey seems unwilling to retire.  In any case, he has no apparent future with the Cubs, so he is gone.  So is Uehara, who will either retire or return to Japan.  Duensing is an intriguing prospect to return.  He pitched really well in relief and he would be a cheap option to shore up the bullpen.

Jay is another player who might come back, though rumor has it he is likely to sign elsewhere for multiple years and the team has a glut of outfielders already.  The same is true of Avila, who is almost certain to sign elsewhere and receive assurances of a starting role.  Rivera is a different story.  If the Cubs want to sign a veteran backup rather than promoting Caratini to that role, look for that guy to be Rivera who performed surprisingly well as a late season acquisition.

The Cubs have a slew of arbitration eligible players starting with Bryant, Hendricks, and Russell, each of whom is a lock to be retained and one or more of whom may receive multi-year offers.  The others are Rondon, Grimm, and LaStella.  LaStella almost certainly will be retained.  Grimm almost certainly will be non-tendered.  There is speculation the Cubs will also non-tender Rondon, though in this respect they may be making a mistake.

Who will the Cubs go after in the free agent market?  This could work out several ways.  Everybody wants Otani, but the Cubs would be a long shot there.  Of the top notch starters besides Arrieta, Darvish stands out.  He is a little younger than Arrieta.  My guess is the Cubs might take a shot at him in preference to Arrieta.  Sure he pitched two really crappy games in the World Series, but he was dynamite with the Dodgers before then.  Darvish, because he was traded, cannot receive a qualifying offer and thus will not cost a draft pick in exchange.

There are many second tier starters on the market.  Cobb from Tampa Bay and Lynn from the Cardinals come to mind.  These are serviceable pitchers who would slot in nicely and will not cost a lot.  Both, however, were offered QOs, which hurts their prospects of attaining killer deals.

Similarly, there are tons of really decent to really good relievers available, starting with Morrow from the Dodgers, but including Reed, Holland, Cishek, really tons of others.  I look for the Cubs to sign at least two of the maybe ten or twelve relievers eligible for free agency.  The one guy I really like is Mike Minor, who is coming off a great comeback year with the Royals.  Rumor has it he wants to return to a starter role, but he fits in nicely with the Cubs needs either way or as a swingman. Another starting pitcher I like is Tyler Chatwood.  Chatwood was hit hard in Denver, but on the road, he was quite good.

As far a trades go, I'm not that anxious for the Cubs to venture too deeply there.  There are lots of rumors about Chris Archer, but, honestly, I suppose it is a question of how much the front office really values him.  He is in his late twenties, he's been around a while, and he has not established himself as a dominant pitcher yet.

The question also is how much the Cubs want to give up in terms of position players and, really, how much they have to offer.  People are talking about trading Schwarber or Russell or Baez or Happ.  Russell and Schwarber are coming off down years and frankly the Cubs would be selling low.  These players have little trade value now plus Russell is really good.  I would really be disappointed should the Cubs trade Happ.  In my mind, he is another player with star potential.  Baez has the most value now as a trade piece, but, despite his inconsistency, I rather doubt the Cubs would trade him except for a genuine #1 or #2 starter.

The players the Cubs would like to dump are most likely Zobrist and Heyward.  However, their contracts, especially Heyward's, make them virtual albatrosses.  I could see someone picking up Zobrist at the deadline, especially if they have an injury, but otherwise not.  Heyward is a perfect illustration of the dangers of signing expensive, long-term deals.  Baez is the most marketable commodity of the group.