Before speculating on the moves the Cubs might make toward improvement in 2018 and then retiring for a long winter's nap, I thought I would try to summarize the season. It certainly was frustrating to say the least, but, for all the doom and gloom, the Cubs recovered from their first half mediocrity and did wind up playing exceptionally well down the stretch. 49-25 after the break isn't bad baseball, nor is 92 wins.
The Cubs couldn't hit at all in the first half. Part might have been the after-effects of the World Series run, part also the lack of a leadoff man with Dexter Fowler's departure to free agency. Certainly, the Kyle Schwarber leadoff experiment was a dreadful flop. Zobrist battled some nagging injuries early in the season, as did Russell. Zobrist never did recover his earlier form. Heyward was supposed to have remade his swing, but, as the season wore on, it was clear he continued to be an unproductive player despite his vaunted defensive prowess.
The season did see the emergence of Ian Happ as versatile offensive force, as well as the further development of Willson Contreras as a potential star. Contreras carried the team through their post-break surge and his injury slowed down their momentum until they picked up Alex Avila and Rene Rivera to bridge the gap. Baez continued to develop as well, though he is an amazingly streaky player who can look great for a stretch and then lapse back to his wild-swinging past.
All in all, this is a team that looks built to dominate offensively for several years as they continue to mature.
As far as pitching goes, I really think this was the Achilles heel and not so much because they were really bad in many fundamental respects. If you look at the World Series teams recently, it is actually the pitching, both starters and relievers, that has the hardest time repeating the kind of success they enjoyed in the golden year.
That being said, if you compare the starting rotations of 2016 and 2017, a fuller appreciation of what happened emerges. Through 2016, the Cubs had an impressive rotation of Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Lackey, and Hammel. They all pitched deep into games. Toward the end of the year, you could see that Lackey and Hammel were weakening, and that Arrieta had lost a little of the complete command he displayed in the first half of the year, but, by and large, these guys never faltered and never missed any significant time to injuries.
In 2017, things were a lot different. Arrieta seemed to lose a couple of mph off his fastball. He appeared to recover some of his form as the season wore on, but an injury in September set him back again. Lester, as well, wasn't the same guy, and an injury in August set him back as well. Hendricks was their best pitcher, especially after he recovered from a hand injury and rejoined the rotation after the break. Lackey was mediocre pretty much all year with the exception of a brief stretch in August when he looked reasonably good. Anderson, an ill-advised investment, came apart in April and spent the season on the DL. The big spark to the pitching staff was the acquisition of Quintana, without whom they might not have won the division. Montgomery also filled an important role as a swingman.
People blame the bullpen, but when you think about how many innings they had to pick up because of the rotation's issues, it is not really a surprise they came up so short in the playoffs. Over the course of the year, Davis was very good in the closer role. Edwards, Strop, Duensing and Montgomery were, on the whole, more assets than liabilities. Rondon was inconsistent. Grimm was awful. Wilson was disappointing.
So really, when you come down to it, the Cubs had a pretty good year that ultimately ended prematurely because their starting pitching let them down. Arrieta is a free agent and he is probably gone. They need to acquire at least one front-line starter to replace him. My choice for this role is Darvish. Ohtani would be great, but, lets face it, he has to be considered a long shot. Archer is not going to happen. Even were he available, the Cubs do not have the package to land him. Anyway, Archer is not at all in the class of the first two we mentioned.
Once they figure out who the big arm is, there are plenty of choices among the middle of the rotation pitchers. My favorite is Chatwood, but Cobb could fill the bill as well.
Winter meetings are coming up. We'll see what happens.
Sunday, November 12, 2017
Tuesday, November 7, 2017
Free Agents
The Cubs will potentially lose nine players to free agency this year. Most of them are pitchers: Arrieta, Davis, Lackey, Uehara, and Duensing. They will also lose catchers Avila and Rivera and outfielder Jay. So there are surely holes to fill and not much in the way of players to promote this year.
The Cubs have made qualifying offers to Arrieta and Davis. Arrieta is a risky guy to sign to more than a four year deal, actually a risky proposition any way you look at it. Rumor has it he wants six years. He has had a significant decline in performance since the middle of 2016. My guess is the Cubs will make a decent offer of no more than four years and start looking elsewhere if it winds up on hold. Davis is another story. He will be a lot cheaper than Arrieta and would undoubtedly accept four years. He put up great numbers especially early in the season, though he walked a lot of hitters especially later on in the season. Of course, all the Cubs relievers started nibbling either from overuse or some other reason, so maybe there is less concern there than meets the eye. Personally, I am not a big fan of signing relievers to big money, multi-year contracts. These guys will often disappoint.
For some reason, Lackey seems unwilling to retire. In any case, he has no apparent future with the Cubs, so he is gone. So is Uehara, who will either retire or return to Japan. Duensing is an intriguing prospect to return. He pitched really well in relief and he would be a cheap option to shore up the bullpen.
Jay is another player who might come back, though rumor has it he is likely to sign elsewhere for multiple years and the team has a glut of outfielders already. The same is true of Avila, who is almost certain to sign elsewhere and receive assurances of a starting role. Rivera is a different story. If the Cubs want to sign a veteran backup rather than promoting Caratini to that role, look for that guy to be Rivera who performed surprisingly well as a late season acquisition.
The Cubs have a slew of arbitration eligible players starting with Bryant, Hendricks, and Russell, each of whom is a lock to be retained and one or more of whom may receive multi-year offers. The others are Rondon, Grimm, and LaStella. LaStella almost certainly will be retained. Grimm almost certainly will be non-tendered. There is speculation the Cubs will also non-tender Rondon, though in this respect they may be making a mistake.
Who will the Cubs go after in the free agent market? This could work out several ways. Everybody wants Otani, but the Cubs would be a long shot there. Of the top notch starters besides Arrieta, Darvish stands out. He is a little younger than Arrieta. My guess is the Cubs might take a shot at him in preference to Arrieta. Sure he pitched two really crappy games in the World Series, but he was dynamite with the Dodgers before then. Darvish, because he was traded, cannot receive a qualifying offer and thus will not cost a draft pick in exchange.
There are many second tier starters on the market. Cobb from Tampa Bay and Lynn from the Cardinals come to mind. These are serviceable pitchers who would slot in nicely and will not cost a lot. Both, however, were offered QOs, which hurts their prospects of attaining killer deals.
Similarly, there are tons of really decent to really good relievers available, starting with Morrow from the Dodgers, but including Reed, Holland, Cishek, really tons of others. I look for the Cubs to sign at least two of the maybe ten or twelve relievers eligible for free agency. The one guy I really like is Mike Minor, who is coming off a great comeback year with the Royals. Rumor has it he wants to return to a starter role, but he fits in nicely with the Cubs needs either way or as a swingman. Another starting pitcher I like is Tyler Chatwood. Chatwood was hit hard in Denver, but on the road, he was quite good.
As far a trades go, I'm not that anxious for the Cubs to venture too deeply there. There are lots of rumors about Chris Archer, but, honestly, I suppose it is a question of how much the front office really values him. He is in his late twenties, he's been around a while, and he has not established himself as a dominant pitcher yet.
The question also is how much the Cubs want to give up in terms of position players and, really, how much they have to offer. People are talking about trading Schwarber or Russell or Baez or Happ. Russell and Schwarber are coming off down years and frankly the Cubs would be selling low. These players have little trade value now plus Russell is really good. I would really be disappointed should the Cubs trade Happ. In my mind, he is another player with star potential. Baez has the most value now as a trade piece, but, despite his inconsistency, I rather doubt the Cubs would trade him except for a genuine #1 or #2 starter.
The players the Cubs would like to dump are most likely Zobrist and Heyward. However, their contracts, especially Heyward's, make them virtual albatrosses. I could see someone picking up Zobrist at the deadline, especially if they have an injury, but otherwise not. Heyward is a perfect illustration of the dangers of signing expensive, long-term deals. Baez is the most marketable commodity of the group.
The Cubs have made qualifying offers to Arrieta and Davis. Arrieta is a risky guy to sign to more than a four year deal, actually a risky proposition any way you look at it. Rumor has it he wants six years. He has had a significant decline in performance since the middle of 2016. My guess is the Cubs will make a decent offer of no more than four years and start looking elsewhere if it winds up on hold. Davis is another story. He will be a lot cheaper than Arrieta and would undoubtedly accept four years. He put up great numbers especially early in the season, though he walked a lot of hitters especially later on in the season. Of course, all the Cubs relievers started nibbling either from overuse or some other reason, so maybe there is less concern there than meets the eye. Personally, I am not a big fan of signing relievers to big money, multi-year contracts. These guys will often disappoint.
For some reason, Lackey seems unwilling to retire. In any case, he has no apparent future with the Cubs, so he is gone. So is Uehara, who will either retire or return to Japan. Duensing is an intriguing prospect to return. He pitched really well in relief and he would be a cheap option to shore up the bullpen.
Jay is another player who might come back, though rumor has it he is likely to sign elsewhere for multiple years and the team has a glut of outfielders already. The same is true of Avila, who is almost certain to sign elsewhere and receive assurances of a starting role. Rivera is a different story. If the Cubs want to sign a veteran backup rather than promoting Caratini to that role, look for that guy to be Rivera who performed surprisingly well as a late season acquisition.
The Cubs have a slew of arbitration eligible players starting with Bryant, Hendricks, and Russell, each of whom is a lock to be retained and one or more of whom may receive multi-year offers. The others are Rondon, Grimm, and LaStella. LaStella almost certainly will be retained. Grimm almost certainly will be non-tendered. There is speculation the Cubs will also non-tender Rondon, though in this respect they may be making a mistake.
Who will the Cubs go after in the free agent market? This could work out several ways. Everybody wants Otani, but the Cubs would be a long shot there. Of the top notch starters besides Arrieta, Darvish stands out. He is a little younger than Arrieta. My guess is the Cubs might take a shot at him in preference to Arrieta. Sure he pitched two really crappy games in the World Series, but he was dynamite with the Dodgers before then. Darvish, because he was traded, cannot receive a qualifying offer and thus will not cost a draft pick in exchange.
There are many second tier starters on the market. Cobb from Tampa Bay and Lynn from the Cardinals come to mind. These are serviceable pitchers who would slot in nicely and will not cost a lot. Both, however, were offered QOs, which hurts their prospects of attaining killer deals.
Similarly, there are tons of really decent to really good relievers available, starting with Morrow from the Dodgers, but including Reed, Holland, Cishek, really tons of others. I look for the Cubs to sign at least two of the maybe ten or twelve relievers eligible for free agency. The one guy I really like is Mike Minor, who is coming off a great comeback year with the Royals. Rumor has it he wants to return to a starter role, but he fits in nicely with the Cubs needs either way or as a swingman. Another starting pitcher I like is Tyler Chatwood. Chatwood was hit hard in Denver, but on the road, he was quite good.
As far a trades go, I'm not that anxious for the Cubs to venture too deeply there. There are lots of rumors about Chris Archer, but, honestly, I suppose it is a question of how much the front office really values him. He is in his late twenties, he's been around a while, and he has not established himself as a dominant pitcher yet.
The question also is how much the Cubs want to give up in terms of position players and, really, how much they have to offer. People are talking about trading Schwarber or Russell or Baez or Happ. Russell and Schwarber are coming off down years and frankly the Cubs would be selling low. These players have little trade value now plus Russell is really good. I would really be disappointed should the Cubs trade Happ. In my mind, he is another player with star potential. Baez has the most value now as a trade piece, but, despite his inconsistency, I rather doubt the Cubs would trade him except for a genuine #1 or #2 starter.
The players the Cubs would like to dump are most likely Zobrist and Heyward. However, their contracts, especially Heyward's, make them virtual albatrosses. I could see someone picking up Zobrist at the deadline, especially if they have an injury, but otherwise not. Heyward is a perfect illustration of the dangers of signing expensive, long-term deals. Baez is the most marketable commodity of the group.
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