Reflections

Before speculating on the moves the Cubs might make toward improvement in 2018 and then retiring for a long winter's nap, I thought I would try to summarize the season.  It certainly was frustrating to say the least, but, for all the doom and gloom, the Cubs recovered from their first half mediocrity and did wind up playing exceptionally well down the stretch.  49-25 after the break isn't bad baseball, nor is 92 wins.

The Cubs couldn't hit at all in the first half.  Part might have been the after-effects of the World Series run, part also the lack of a leadoff man with Dexter Fowler's departure to free agency.  Certainly, the Kyle Schwarber leadoff experiment was a dreadful flop.  Zobrist battled some nagging injuries early in the season, as did Russell.  Zobrist never did recover his earlier form.  Heyward was supposed to have remade his swing, but, as the season wore on, it was clear he continued to be an unproductive player despite his vaunted defensive prowess.

The season did see the emergence of Ian Happ as versatile offensive force, as well as the further development of Willson Contreras as a potential star.  Contreras carried the team through their post-break surge and his injury slowed down their momentum until they picked up Alex Avila and Rene Rivera to bridge the gap.  Baez continued to develop as well, though he is an amazingly streaky player who can look great for a stretch and then lapse back to his wild-swinging past.

All in all, this is a team that looks built to dominate offensively for several years as they continue to mature.

As far as pitching goes, I really think this was the Achilles heel and not so much because they were really bad in many fundamental respects.  If you look at the World Series teams recently, it is actually the pitching, both starters and relievers, that has the hardest time repeating the kind of success they enjoyed in the golden year.

That being said, if you compare the starting rotations of 2016 and 2017, a fuller appreciation of what happened emerges.  Through 2016, the Cubs had an impressive rotation of Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Lackey, and Hammel.  They all pitched deep into games.  Toward the end of the year, you could see that Lackey and Hammel were weakening, and that Arrieta had lost a little of the complete command he displayed in the first half of the year, but, by and large, these guys never faltered and never missed any significant time to injuries.

In 2017, things were a lot different.  Arrieta seemed to lose a couple of mph off his fastball.  He appeared to recover some of his form as the season wore on, but an injury in September set him back again.  Lester, as well, wasn't the same guy, and an injury in August set him back as well.  Hendricks was their best pitcher, especially after he recovered from a hand injury and rejoined the rotation after the break.  Lackey was mediocre pretty much all year with the exception of a brief stretch in August when he looked reasonably good.  Anderson, an ill-advised investment, came apart in April and spent the season on the DL.  The big spark to the pitching staff was the acquisition of Quintana, without whom they might not have won the division.  Montgomery also filled an important role as a swingman.

People blame the bullpen, but when you think about how many innings they had to pick up because of the rotation's issues, it is not really a surprise they came up so short in the playoffs.  Over the course of the year, Davis was very good in the closer role.  Edwards, Strop, Duensing and Montgomery were, on the whole, more assets than liabilities.  Rondon was inconsistent.  Grimm was awful.  Wilson was disappointing.

So really, when you come down to it, the Cubs had a pretty good year that ultimately ended prematurely because their starting pitching let them down.  Arrieta is a free agent and he is probably gone.  They need to acquire at least one front-line starter to replace him.  My choice for this role is Darvish.  Ohtani would be great, but, lets face it, he has to be considered a long shot.  Archer is not going to happen.  Even were he available, the Cubs do not have the package to land him.  Anyway, Archer is not at all in the class of the first two we mentioned.

Once they figure out who the big arm is, there are plenty of choices among the middle of the rotation pitchers.  My favorite is Chatwood, but Cobb could fill the bill as well.

Winter meetings are coming up.  We'll see what happens.