Cubs Speculation

Now the Cubs season has ended, mad speculation begins on what the team will do in the off-season to improve.  Bear in mind, the Cubs, woeful as their second half turned out, especially in September, won 95 games.  Mediocre as their performance was in the second half, they were still 40-30 after the break.

Most of the sportswriters seem to think the Cubs ought to go after big time free agents like Harper and Machado.  I'm not so sure.  For one thing, Machado is not a very good shortstop.  Given the Cubs have two of the best shortstops in the league, it would seem counter-intuitive to switch these guys around or trade them.  Machado is a much better third baseman.  The problem there is that Bryant is a regular at third base.  This would necessitate a move to the outfield for Bryant.  So I just don't see Machado as so much of an impact player as others do.  Witness his performance so far in the playoffs.  OK, sure, but not dramatic unless you count his attempts to maim opposition players.

Harper may be a different story.  Harper is a pretty ordinary outfielder, but a major slugger and a left-handed hitter to boot.  I could see the Cubs making a run there, but I can also see them falling short.  First off, the Nationals will take a big shot at keeping him.  Secondly, granted he is an impact hitter, the kind of contract he is likely to command makes it all the more difficult to retain a number of the Cubs young stars who will demand big contracts to stay on over the next few years.

The other big talk is about the Cubs pitching, which, I think, is really overblown.  The Cubs would have had the best or close to the best starting four through the playoffs.  Assuming they retain Hamels, which, given his performance through the second half, is a near certainty, they will return with this same starting four.  They also have the prospect of a healthy Darvish, a rebuilt Smyly, and Montgomery and Chatwood in the wings.

The bullpen may get some shoring up in the off-season.  They are likely to lose several relievers to free agency, or are at risk of doing so.  Wilson is gone for sure.  Chavez, de la Rosa, and Garcia are free agents.  They ought to sign Chavez.  Kintzler has some sort of complicated option thing going, but the Cubs need to dump him for good.

I rather see the Cubs making a play for a dominant left-hander like Miller or Britton in free agency. This would take a lot of pressure off Morrow and Strop. 

As far as the bullpen holding up, fans ought to come to terms with the idea that so long as Maddon insists on removing his starters in the fifth or sixth inning instead of letting them pitch out of trouble, the bullpen will inevitably break down late in the season no matter who is out there.