Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Breakout?

Well, sort of.  The Cubs did manage to score eight runs Sunday against the Phillies' A.J. Burnett.  Burnett was wild and the Cubs, uncharacteristically, displayed some patience, at least in the two innings they scored runs.  More of this is needed.

Just for kicks I ran some numbers on the number of pitches the Cubs have seen in relation to the number of pitches their opponents have seen this year from Cubs pitchers.

Not surprisingly, the numbers against the Pirates were pretty even.  Actually on opening day, the Cubs saw 154 pitches from the Pirates as opposed to the 128 pitches the Cubs threw.  For the rest of the series, the numbers are pretty even, 258/256, and 129/133.

These numbers confirm the fact that you are dealing with two teams that have a similar approach to hitting and have difficulty scoring runs.  The real difference between the Cubs and Pirates is maturity.  The Pirates have four players - McCutchen, Marte, Martin, and Alvarez - who could find a spot on any roster, plus a dominant bullpen.  The Cubs have an inconsistent bullpen and probably no position players at this stage of their career who could find a spot on a genuine contender.

Back to the pitch count analysis, the real difference with a genuinely good offensive team is revealed by the Phillies series.  The numbers there are much more skewed: 128/171, 122/151, 140/142.  Essentially, Philadelphia saw 74 more pitches than the Cubs in the course of that series, 72 in the two games they won.  Which means really that they had 74 more chances to reach base.

As a side note, the "Welcome Home Carlos Marmol" award goes to Jose Veras.  Is this guy messed up or what?

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