Monday, November 17, 2014

Martin Gets Away

Word is that Russell Martin has signed a five-year deal with Toronto for $82MM.  This kind of underlines how tough it is to land a big-time free agent in today's market, especially when you are dealing with a scarce commodity like a good defensive catcher who can hit and get on base.  Martin would have been a pretty good fit for the Cubs, but that's a hefty price tag for a 32 year old catcher. 

The story is the Blue Jays were the only suitor to offer five years, which makes him 37 in the final year of the contract.  Those last two years are potential problems, especially for an NL team that cannot rest him in a DH role.  I'm not that broken up about the result.  Castillo is still a decent catcher.  The Cubs need to focus on finding a backup.

No other notable hot stove stuff that has not already been published.  The Cubs are still considered major contenders for Jon Lester and have added Justin Masterson into the mix as a one or two year gamble.  Masterson could come back big next year if he is healthy, but I still think the Cubs need to land a major talent like Lester to be competitive.

I haven't seen too much in the way of reasonable scenarios for Hamels.  The Phillies seem to want three top-tier prospects, two being major league ready.  I doubt the Cubs, having spent three years building up a cadre of prospects, are going to go for this kind of deal.  I could see them moving Baez in this kind of trade, but I should think the rest of the package would include guys of lesser merit or guys who are blocked like Vogelbach.

The trade of Vizcaino to the Braves for 2B prospect La Stella is a bit of a puzzler given the Cubs apparent surfeit of middle infielders.  From the news, the Cubs have always liked LaStella, a high OBP guy who hits for average and does not strike out much.  In my mind, this is a winning kind of player at this position, a left-handed bat as well.  The thing is you do not get a guy like that as a reserve player, so the move has led to the inevitable speculation that somebody in the Baez, Russell, Castro mix is going to be moved, likely Castro or Baez.

For my money Baez is the more valuable trade bait to get a front line pitcher.  I have always been critical of Castro's sometimes sloppy play and dumb habits at the plate, but last year he did seem to develop into a more disciplined player.  However, he has likely reached a plateau in his abilities and everybody knows it.  Baez, on the other hand, is perceived to have a substantially higher potential.  However, Baez is also a strikeout machine who has no idea how to play baseball.  At best, his development will likely require years of tutelage to produce a player who will hit a lot of home runs, never get on base, and still strikeout at an unacceptable level.

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