Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Rumors

The Cubs are linked to a variety of interesting players, especially among the free agents, in the wake of the imminent arrival of several of their best prospects and the hiring of a real major league manager in Joe Maddon.

Obviously the pitching is the biggest need and the most glamorous position in terms of free agents and premier players who might be available for trade.  Pitching is the strength of the current free agent class in any case, as this year's crop is notably weak in hitters and position players.

The Cubs have been prominently linked to Jon Lester who has some history with Epstein from his Boston days and will also not cost the Cubs a draft pick.  Lester is really good, but he will not be cheap, ending up somewhere between $20 and $25MM per year in at least a four year deal.

Max Scherzer is also prominently mentioned, as well as James Shields.  These guys are good, though I think Shields is not the dominant starter he was in 2013.  Also, each of these guys is going to cost Lester money or more as well as a draft choice.  In the Cubs case, this is a second round choice as they have been so bad their first round pick is protected  I tend to think the Cubs will go for Lester and forget the other two, who are likely to sign elsewhere in any case.

An intriguing possibility is that the Cubs are reported to be talking to the Phillies about Cole Hamels.  Hamels is in the same class of pitcher as Lester and would be a good acquisition.  He has four years and $96MM left on his contract with Philadelphia, which is less than Lester would cost.  He would, however, cost the Cubs at least one of their more prized prospects.  The Cubs claimed Hamels on waivers last season, but the teams were unable to work out the terms of a trade.  I, for one, would not be unhappy to see Baez dealt as the centerpiece of this trade even though he might turn out to be a star player.  The Cubs are rich in infield prospects and personally I do not think a guy who strikes out at the rate Baez does and possesses no plate discipline whatsoever is going to amount nearly as much as the hype projects him to become.

The Cubs might be able to acquire Hamels more cheaply depending on how anxious the Phils are to dump salary and how long term their plans are.  The Cubs have a number of guys like Vogelbach, for example, who are a little further away from the majors and who may be blocked by current regulars or nearer term prospects.

The other big rumor is the Cubs are making a pitch for the Pirates catcher Russell Martin.  This makes some sense.  Martin is a really good defensive catcher who can hit and who gets on base a lot.  I've always like Welington Castillo, but he had a down year last season and he may not be the player the Cubs have hoped to see.  On the other hand, he had to battle through some injuries last year, so, should the Cubs fail to land Martin, they could still go into next season with Castillo behind the plate provided they acquire a veteran backup.

Another free agent rumor has the Cubs making a play for David Robertson, the Yankees closer.  Robertson is pretty good, but I tend to discount this one.  For one thing, Robertson has a qualifying offer and the Cubs are just not going to give away that many draft picks under the current regime.  For another thing, the Cubs bullpen is pretty well stocked right now.  Also, free agent relievers are not the best bet in terms of the probability of success.  The Cubs principal bullpen need right now is a dominant lefty.  If they want to go into the market for expensive bullpen help, Andrew Miller is the guy they should target.

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