Off-Season Notes

I've been meaning to get around to a more comprehensive analysis of the Cubs hot stove dealings, so here it goes, at least in terms of first impressions.  The Cubs lost some significant pieces of their roster due to free agency, retirement, or declining to pick up options.  Dexter Fowler, Aroldis Chapman, David Ross, and Jason Hammel are the players to whom I refer.  In addition, the Cubs seem to have said goodbye to a few other assets, viz., Coghlan, Cahill, and Wood, all of whom became free agents.  There have been some rumors that they have been in touch with Wood, but so far it is just rumors.  Wood wants to start, though, which doesn't seem in the cards.

As far as Hammel goes, I was not surprised they let him walk.  Nor would I have been surprised to see him retained.  The curious thing about Hammel is that, besides being a lot better pitcher before the All-Star Break than after in most seasons, is that he has been pretty much of a flop everywhere but with the Cubs, where he has delivered parts of three very solid seasons.  So far, Hammel has not drawn a lot of interest.  Maybe other teams have noticed this too.

The departure of Hammel did leave a gap in the rotation.  Apparently, Montgomery is the likeliest player to inherit the fifth spot.  I like Montgomery and I think he will deliver.  Going into the off-season, though, the major team needs were to shore up the rotation and the bullpen and to find a replacement for Fowler in center field and as a leadoff hitter.  I still see room for improvement in the rotation, mostly in finding some sort of fallback for Lackey if he continues to slide. Most teams would be happy to have a guy like Lackey as a #5.  In many respects, he strikes me as a notable pitcher in his declining days, much as Ferguson Jenkins and Greg Maddux were when the Cubs of yesteryear brought them back.  Lackey is capable of some good performances, but my guess is he is a .500 pitcher at best next year.

There has been some talk of the Cubs signing Tyson Ross, the former Padres pitcher who is coming off thoracic outlet surgery.  Ross is pretty good.  Indeed the Cubs were looking to trade for him last off-season.  The idea, I would suppose, is to sign him to a one-year of incentive-laden contract and bring him along slowly.  That would be a smart move, but, of course, with a pitcher coming off surgery, it is not without risks.

On the bullpen side, the Cubs traded Jorge Soler for the former Royals closer Wade Davis.  A healthy Davis is an upgrade over what remained of the Cubs bullpen.  Arguably, he is a more versatile and more reliable closer option than Chapman, who, besides being really expensive, was not the most reliable pitcher for the Cubs last year.  Chapman pissed off a lot of fans when he criticized Maddon for using him in the ninth inning of Game 6, though, honestly, he was not the only guy who questioned that move.  I've always thought of Chapman as more of a physical freak, for want of a better term, not really a pitcher.  I suspect what Chapman was really getting at, though, was his desire, like many of the current wave of power closers, preferably to pitch a single inning with a lead and nobody on base.  To my mind, Andrew Miller and Kelly Jansen, were and are the best relief pitchers around right now.

With Montgomery moving into the rotation and Wood gone, the Cubs still need left-handed relievers.  I would guess Zastryzny is in the mix.  He looked good last year.  They signed a couple of journeymen who don't look like much, as well as the aging Uehara, a righty who gets lefties out.  I can see another move on the horizon here before spring training rolls around.

Going into the off-season, the Cubs really looked set in terms of position players with the exception of center field, so set in fact that they felt able to give up Soler for Davis even up.  Whoever replaces Fowler, though, is going to have big shoes to fill.  Fowler was not that great defensively, though more than adequate, but he quite simply was the catalyst for the offense through both seasons he played here.

The Cubs are seemingly committed to bringing Almora along.  This guy is a terrific outfielder, but still an immature hitter.  They also seem committed to keeping Heyward in right field rather than switching him to center.  Heyward, of course, is an amazingly good outfielder, but, last year, he was an amazingly bad hitter.  The Cubs signed Jon Jay, formerly the Cardinals center fielder for many years and lately a Padre.  Jay is a really good outfielder and a decent hitter.  He is certainly not in Fowler's league by any means.  In some respects, Jay, especially if Almora pans out, fills the same role Coghlan has for the past two years.

So, the question is, right now, are the Cubs a better team than last year?  In all honesty, they might be, but realistically, they are not.  Still, with a little luck, they seem good enough to repeat, which is going to be OK with most fans.

Another Bullpen Move

The Cubs seem convinced they need to shore up their bullpen options.  Yesterday they agreed to a one-year deal with Koji Uehara, the former Red Sox closer.  Uehara is years away from his banner year as closer on the last Red Sox World Series team, though he has been pretty good since then.  Uehara, though, had a bit of an off year in 2016.  His fastball velocity has declined a lot and he will be 42 years old when the season begins.  One would have thought the Cubs would be looking for a lefty to add to the mix with the evident departure of Travis Wood and the move of Montgomery to the rotation, not to mention the departure of Chapman back to New York as a free agent.

I kind of thought the team's biggest priority would have been getting a younger starting pitcher, especially with the departure of Hammel and potential swing men like Wood and Cahill.  The top three starters, Lester, Arrieta, and Hendricks are top notch and I think Montgomery will work out pretty well.  The big question mark has to be Lackey.  Lackey had a decent year in 2016, winning 11 games and pitching to a 3.35 ERA.  However, he averaged only a little over five innings per start.  In the post-season, he was not very good.  In fact, he was pretty shaky at best in his three starts, getting hit pretty hard and averaging a full inning less per start than in the regular season.  Lackey is 38 years old, so if any one of the Cubs starters is going to crack, it is probably him.

I'm still not a big fan of the Davis deal for reasons detailed in a previous post.  Basically, he now has a history of arm issues, he's 31, and he is a rental.  At his best, however, he is a dominant bullpen presence.  Maybe I am being sentimental, but I always rather liked Soler's promise and I was sorry to see him moved.  Maybe I was overly impressed by his performance in the 2015 post-season because that really was a show and you really hoped he could put it all together again.

Say It Ain't So

Lots of trade rumors involving the Cubs and KC reliever Wade Davis.  Not to take anything from Davis and his abilities when healthy, but there are at least three reasons to question the wisdom of the deal.

First off, Davis was hurt and DLed a couple of times last year with forearm issues.  Not nearly as good when activated later in the year.  Big risk factor.

Second, Davis is another rental.  He will be a free agent in 2017.

Third, you have to consider the price.  Is he worth a potential star slugger like Soler for a year's service.  Granted Soler is blocked mainly by Jason Heyward, but in some respects you wonder why, as Heyward, while a great defender, was a complete bust last year at the plate  Soler, on the other hand, in limited play, hit 12 homers, which projects out to 25 or more over the course of a full season.  He is still, at worst, an attractive platoon in either corner outfield spot.

Anyway, although closer is still not the greatest team weakness, my feeling is a player in his contract year is not worth a major chip like Soler.  A lesser prospect, sure.  Even Torres for Chapman last year was a big price, although it worked out well, more from a psychological point of view than consistently dominant results.

Some Thoughts on the World Series

Now that the dust has settled and the celebrations are done, and the terrible election and terrible result is over, I thought I would set down some observations about this Cubs team.  Just to make people aware of my own prejudices and bias, I've always thought that in sports and really in so many other areas, management can only use their judgment to put together the best talent they can find.  Similarly, the coaches and field manager can only provide the kind of instruction and environment that allows players to develop and use their skills.  Ultimately, it is the players who win games, and, in the end, it is their skills and character that matters.  Such was the case with the Cubs this year and it was a great tribute to the team that they did not fold in the face of adversity as so many previous Cubs teams folded, and that they came back in Game 7 despite blowing a safe lead in the eighth inning.

That being said, I've always felt that field managers do not win individual games, but they can lose them.  Such might have been the case with Joe Maddon this year.  Maddon has always been criticized for this management of the bullpen, even with Tampa Bay.  This year, after the fact, he was the subject of some criticism by sportswriters in general for his management of the World Series games.  Mike Krukow, the former Cubs and Giants pitcher and current Giants broadcaster, even accused him of arrogance and egotism for his handling of the bullpen.  Not sure I would go that far, but Maddon certainly changed his style in the series and it may have just as easily have turned into disaster for the Cubs.

The most obvious change in tactics was the use of the starting pitchers.  A great strength of the team throughout the season was its starting pitching and the fact they usually pitched deep into the game, thus taking pressure off the bullpen.  The four starters the Cubs used during the playoffs had each averaged more than six innings per start, which meant they ordinarily lasted into the seventh inning.  In the playoffs, only Lester maintained that average, the others were removed on an average of an inning sooner than usual, with Lackey averaging nearly two innings less per start.

Granted the playoffs are rather more tense do-or-die games, and that Lackey pitched poorly in almost all of his starts, but especially with respect to Lester and Hendricks, these moves were rather questionable.  In Game 7 of the World Series, Maddon removed Hendricks in favor of Lester in the fifth inning with a comfortable lead after a dubious ball and strike call led eventually to a two out walk.  Ross botched a throw to first on a pretty ordinary swinging bunt and then Ross and Lester completely screwed up a wild pitch that let the Indians back into the game.  Taking Hendricks out after five innings was certainly a defensible plan, but putting Lester into an unfamiliar role with a man on base was, I think, a little unwise.

All this strategy of pulling guys early with low pitch counts put a lot of pressure on the bullpen.  Eventually, Maddon seemed to lose confidence in everyone but Montgomery, Edwards, and Chapman.  However, the rest of the bullpen was not that bad and in some cases, although inconsistent, pitched rather creditably.  Chapman really became the stopper, a role he was hired to perform, but at which, frankly, he did not deliver consistently.  In the playoffs, he saved four games and won two, but blew three save opportunities.

Actually, the Cubs were looking to build a kind of three inning fortress with Strop, Rondon, and Chapman, but the thing never really materialized in the regular season, largely because of injuries to the first two members of the triad.  These guys never really rounded back into mid-season form, so the bulwark of the pen came to be Chapman.  The problem was that Chapman has never seemed comfortable with extended saves and he was not stretched out during the regular season, largely because of this.

Anyway, a lot of the criticism of Maddon's moves relates to the way Chapman was used during the last three games of the World Series.  Again, the two plus innings in Game 5 were justified.  It was a tight game and the team faced elimination.  The attempt to stretch Chapman to seven outs in Game 6 made no sense.  Granted, putting him in to get out of a jam in the seventh was OK, even clever, but once the inning was over, the Cubs could reasonably expect to coast in with a comfortable lead.  Bringing him out to start the ninth with a seven run lead was tempting fate looking to Game 7.  As it is, it turned out he was not sharp in Game 7 and nearly blew the game in the eighth inning.

Another item of criticism for Maddon, besides not dropping Baez and Heyward down in the lineup sooner, was game strategy.  I'm not sure there is a lot there to second guess with the exception of having Baez bunt with two strikes and the bases loaded in the top of the ninth.  That was a head-scratcher and more than anything, probably prompted Krukow's outburst.

Still, they won, and I think largely based on character and determination in the end.  The players simply did not want to go down as another Cubs team that blew the big one, especially after coming off the mat to tie the series and force a seventh game.

They Did It!

What a game!  And what a struggle.  I cannot say it was fun, though, at least from a fan's viewpoint.  All night long I thought they had it sewn up.  Hendricks was terrific.  Klubel was not.  They got an early lead.  What could go wrong?

As it turns out, plenty.  I suppose that every manager plays things differently in the post-season.  Maddon, however, kept protesting in all the post-game interviews that they were just going to treat these games the same as those in the regular season.  That really seems to have changed with Game 5 when Joe brought Chapman in for the long save.  It seems he fell in love with a different style and, in retrospect, it almost cost the Cubs a champioship.

In Game 6, Chapman was brought on early again, this time with a big lead and little necessity.  The opinion then was divided, of course.  You could justify it for sure, but it made you vulnerable to tired arms in Game 7.  I was really surprised to see Hendricks pulled in the fifth inning with a four run lead after an unlucky walk.  Lester eventually got the final out, but not without some uncharacteristic shaky defense from David Ross, a bad throw and a bungled up wild pitch that cut the lead to two.

Lester settled down after that until two outs in the eighth inning.  Maddon replaced him with Chapman after an infield hit.  I expect things just caught up with Chapman because he was just awful.  He could not get the third out if his life depended on it, eventually giving up a game tying homer to Davis.  Chapman is an interesting case as a closer.  He really is not all that reliable unless he starts an inning with a lead and no one on base.  I rather think that is beacuse he relies so much on the big fastball that he does not pitch.  In the bottom of the ninth with the score tied, Montero replaced Ross behind the plate and he called a different game, lots of sliders and curves.  The results were much better, extra innings.

Like most fans, I was cursing Maddon then for over-managing, especially when he had Baez attempt a squezze bunt with two strikes and the winning run at third base the following inning.  I mean, Baez just has to put the ball in play with one out.  That bunt is too cute.  Baez bunted foul, striking out.

Everything turned around with the rain delay before the beginning of the tenth.  Whether they were able to regroup or take stock of things, one does not know.  Supposedlly there was a team meeting.  In any case, they came out loaded for bear.  Schwarber singled.  Bryant hit a long fly to right that advanced the pinch runner Almora.  It turns out that took the bat out of Rizzo's hands because Francona had him intentionally walked.  It was still good strategy as getting a runner into scoring position put the Indians in a tough spot.  Zobrist came through with a double after a great at-bat and they got an insurance run on a Montero single.

I daresay the choice of Edwards to replace Chapman for the bottom of the tenth was eccentric.  He got two outs, but then gave up two hard hits that resulted in a run after the Cubs let the first guy take second because of defensive indifference.  Montgomery came on to induce a weak groud ball with his second pitch to seal the win.

You almost don't know what to say at this point.  The Cubs were undoubtedly the best baseball team all season long and their win was not just a reward for all their fans, but a fillip for baseball itself, a kind of vindication, as it were.  This Cubs team is qualitatively different from all their previous teams.  Every other year, faced with similar instances of bad luck or mistakes, they would and did fold.  Think back to 2003, for example.  This year, even down 3-1 against a determined opponent, and even sfter blowing a safe lead, they ultimately came through.  They are worthy champions.

I'm writing this in bed 3/4 of a mile from the ballpark and you can still hear the horns and fireworks and celebrations four hours later.  The firecrackers are driving my dog nuts, so I wish they'd stop.

Go Cubs!  I had doubts I would ever see this in my lifetime.

All Tied Up

What can you say?  Somehow the Cubs have lifted themselves off the mat and forced a Game 7, and it pretty decisive fashion at that.  Although the offense provided the highlights, three home runs including a grand slam from Addison Russell, defense was a part of the story as well.  Heyward  made two stellar plays, compensating for his truly awful at-bats.  Similarly Baez helped turn a spectacular double play.

On the pitching end, Arrieta turned in an excellent start.  He dominated the Indians when it mattered even though he gave them an inning after the Cubs had taken a commanding lead.  One thing I kind of wonder about, though, is the use of Chapman so early.  I know it makes sense to put your most intimidating pitcher in to cement a lead when there is trouble, but it seems that Maddon has lost confidence in everyone with the exception of Chapman and Montgomery.  That's kind of a shame, as there are some capable arms available who are certainly good enough to hold onto a five run lead.  So I get the statement Joe makes by bringing in Chapman in the seventh and having him pitch through the heart of the Indians batting order, but I kind of question letting him start the ninth inning with a seven run lead.

However, they have made it to Game 7 and that is the important thing.  Also, they have a rested Hendricks going against the Indians ace Kluber who pitches on short rest.  They are also likely to play in pretty balmy conditions, which greatly favor their hitters.

Some random observations:

MLB has been pretty lucky that the series has been played in two Northern cities with unreliable climates without seriously awful weather conditions such as happened last year in the NLCS between the Cubs and the Mets.  I mean, Game 7 occurring November 2 is really not a good thing, is it?

How come the Indians are the home team based on the result of a meaningless exhibition game that no one takes seriously?

Does MLB go out of their way to recruit the worst umpires they can for the playoffs and World Series?  These guys are almost always wrong.  Replays help, but, geez!  And the balls and strikes?  Joe West?  By all accounts, possibly the worst umpire available in terms of the accuracy of his ball and strike calls, not to mention his contentious demeanor and actions.

Tomorrow is the day (or night) of decision.  Go Cubs!

Survival

I don't believe I have ever watched a night of baseball more full of tension.  Of course, it is not every day the Cubs are involved in a do-or-die World Series game facing elimination in front of 41,000 screaming fans.  It seemed almost by sheer will from the fans and the players that they managed to win and force the series back to Cleveland for a sixth game.  Lets hope it continues on Tuesday.

Some observations:

Chapman earned his money Sunday night.  I have to say I never expected him to be able to dominate the Indians for three innings.  He had certainly not done so against anyone in the past, and he always has looked like a guy who preferred to earn his saves by coming in for a single inning with no one on base.  That fact was undoubtedly part of the sense of impending dread that affected everyone in the stadium and at home watching.  It's not like Chapman is Andrew Miller who seems to do this every other day.  Also, and for future reference should the Cubs or others be tempted to sign him to a long-term deal, Chapman is not really a baseball player so much as he is a superbly endowed athlete capable of one big thing, throwing a baseball 100+ mph consistently.  Teams can run at will on him, and, as we saw in the eighth inning, he doesn't always cover first base.

The Indians are a lot better team than most people think.  They did not crumble when the Cubs had their inning and they made this almost a gladiatorial combat to the end.

Maybe Baez should take batting practice.  Baseball is such a weird game.  You wonder how a player like Baez can look like a superstar who has finally figured it all out through the first two playoff series and look like a complete mope at the plate in this one.

Lester is one helluva big-game pitcher.

The Cubs seem to play very well when their backs are to the wall.  They seem to be able to provide one great offensive inning on a regular basis in these games.  It got them a long way during the season and maybe it will be enough to carry through to a championship.

The series goes to Cleveland Tuesday and potentially Wednesday.  These are evenly matched teams right now.  Home field favors the Indians, but, oddly enough, AL rules favor the Cubs because of their depth and the presence of Schwarber as DH.  The pitching match-ups also give the Cubs an edge if only because their remaining starters will pitch on full rest whereas the Indians starters will both pitch on short rest.

Maddon told the team to wear Halloween costumes on the flight to Cleveland.  Strange, but somewhat endearing none the less.

Go Cubs!

On the Brink

The Cubs played another lousy game Saturday night.  There is no other way to describe their performance.  Again the hitting or lack thereof and the lack of plate discipline proved their undoing.  Whether they are pressing or whether the Indians pitching is that good is probably a moot point now.  The only players who seemed to have a solid approach were Fowler and Rizzo.  Bryant was hopeless and made two errors in the second inning, one physical on the bad throw and the other mental on a throw that should not have been made that cost a run.

The team played with a sense of desperation.  Whether they can recover to at least take the series back to Cleveland is another big question mark.  You want to think so.  With Lester pitching against the weakest of the Indians starters Sunday night, the Cubs are still favored.  Also, they would send Arrieta and Hendricks on full rest against Tomlin and Kluber on short rest were the series to return to Cleveland.  They have to get over the hump, however.  They have done so before, notably in the LA series where they looked pretty bad in Games 2 and 3 as well.

One observation on Lackey.  This guy has serious anger management issues and they really do affect the outcome of closely contested games.  He was fuming all through the second and third innings about bad calls.  I could see only one egregious bad call, the rest were borderline or correct.  The thing is he loses concentration after one of these slights and he invariably makes a bad pitch on the next offering.

A Surprising Game (and Loss)

I guess that's baseball, but, under the conditions, warmish night, wind howling out to center field, no one would have expected a 1-0 game.  Given the Cubs offense, no one would have expected them to be on the short end.  Give the Indians credit, they have a pitching plan, which is to stick with the off-speed stuff, and, so far, through their own playoff series and now the World Series, it has been effective.

No one wants to talk about it, but even the implication of Maddon's post-game interview is that the wind must have got into the Cubs batters heads.  I daresay there was a reason the hitters got out of the strike zone.  By and large, all of them looked like they wanted to deposit the ball on Waveland or Sheffield for a grand slam even with the bases empty.  Baez, in particular, was a mess.  Back to the old high leg kick and all.  He came up twice late in the game with a chance to tie or win it and came up empty.  The Cubs win when the grind out at-bats, swing at strikes, and play within themselves.

Tomorrow is another day.

Of the controversies created after the game among fans and commentators, I have these thoughts.  Maddon defended his decision to allow Edwards to continue to pitch in the seventh inning with Crisp coming up.  His thoughts were he liked that match-up better than Montgomery vs. Guyer, who may have pinch-hit had he made a change.  I don't like it much.  First of all, Edwards was in his second inning of work and was on the ropes.  Secondly, there is no assurance Francona would have hit for Crisp, who is a switch-hitter and a veteran player.  Maddon has had a lot of success turning the Indians switch-hitters around, so why not take a chance.  Lets just say it was an odd and uncharacteristic choice.

As it turns out, Crisp got a bloop single.  Soler chose to play the ball on a hop, a safe play.  Could he have caught it.  That's pretty doubtful, and if he had tried, he would likely have had to leave his feet, which pretty much meant the run would have scored from third base anyway.  He was playing very deep at the time, as all the fielders were given the game conditions.  As it is he got the out at third base against the advancing runner and kept the game close.  The wild pitch was the key play of that inning, getting the runner to third.  Given that pitch, all the more reason to take Edwards out.  It is fashionable to knock Soler, but the guy did go two for three with a triple and he did give the Cubs two of the three scoring opportunities they had against Indians pitching.

Saturday becomes a must-win game for the Cubs and they have to beat Kluber or get him out early.  Weather conditions are likely to be similar Friday night.  Lets hope they get it together.

Cubs Even Series

The Cubs evened up the World Series at one game each with a 5-1 win Wednesday night.  I would not describe their performance as flawless, but they were in control throughout the game.  First off, Arrieta was on his game.  He took a no-hitter into the sixth inning.  He was, however, a little wild at times and he definitely ran up his pitch count.  Arrieta is definitely not the guy he was during the Cy Young run last year or earlier this season, but he is good enough to keep his team competitive deep into game.  He has developed a tendency to overthrow some pitches in the dirt when he gets in trouble.  This cost him a fun in the sixth when a wild pitch brought home the only Indians run.  Still, this outing was his best of the post-season by far.


Sticking with the pitching, it seems Maddon is much more comfortable turning the Indians switch-hitters around to the right side.  Montgomery bailed out Arrieta in the sixth and pitched two innings of very effective relief.  Chapman finished off the last four outs in typical Chapman fashion.

On the hitting side, I guess the story is Schwarber who continued to have productive at-bats and hit two singles with men on base that drove in runs.  Schwarber is rapidly becoming the story of this series the new Roy Hobbs.  Who knew he could bounce back from that terrible injury and still play in October, let alone recover his batting form?   There is some talk of playing him in the outfield when the series returns to Chicago.  I don't see an advantage to this and there are certainly risks involved.  Also, Schwarber is not exactly the greatest left-fielder when he is completely healthy, so his being in the field could pose not just personal risks, but risks for the team.  Another consideration is that he would almost certainly have to be replaced with a defensive substitution late in the game.  That's when his bat might do the most good.  All in all, the Cubs should not force matters.

The Cubs must be the most irritating team for opposing pitchers to face.  They just grind out those at-bats relentlessly.  Bauer threw 87 pitches in less than four innings.  The Cubs must have had nearly twenty men on base in the course of the game what with all the walks and errors and nine hits.  Granted they left thirteen men on base, but they scored often enough to win comfortably.

Francona has announced he will go with a three man rotation through the series.  He hasn't a lot of options, but this is going to work to the Cubs advantage.  Kluber came back on short rest against Toronto in the ALCS and lost Game 4.  Granted he pitched well, but he still lost, lasting only five innings.  The match-ups from here on out are very much to the Cubs advantage.  You have to like their chances.

A Bad Beginning

The Cubs lost 6-0 to the Cleveland Indians, who continue their hot pace in the playoffs.  Lester pitched well except for the first inning and even then he was rather unlucky, also stubborn.  He got the first two outs easily before Lindor singled.  Lindor stole second base, which seemed to really shake up Lester.  After a bunch of walks, the Indians scored on a little dribbler that would have ended the inning had it traveled another three feet and a hit batsman on an 0-2 pitch.  Lester doesn't always throw strikes to get people out.  In this case, there is no doubt the umpire was squeezing him.  In any case, the only other runs scored on two home runs from the unlikeliest of sources, the Indians catcher Roberto Perez, a career .220 hitter who was even worse this year, checking in well under the Mendoza line.  Go figure.

Corey Kluber, who is an elite pitcher and former Cy Young winner, was dominating throughout his six plus innings.  Since injuries have decimated the Indians starting staff, that team is all about the trio of Kluber, Andrew Miller, and their closer Cody Allen.  They have scripted their playoff games so far to make the most use of these players.  This game went according to script.  The Cubs did get Miller in trouble in both his innings and they managed a double off Allen in the ninth, but the outcome was never in doubt.

Given the disarray of their rotation, they will likely continue the same plan, probably bringing Kluber back Saturday on short rest.  It will be interesting to see how he fares the second time around, especially on the road.  Also, Miller threw forty pitches Tuesday night.  You wonder if he will be available Wednesday.  He's been in seven post-season games this year and logged almost fifteen innings, which is quite a load for a reliever.

Some random observations:

Schwarber looked surprisingly good at the plate.  I had some doubts as to whether bringing him back was such a hot idea, but he had some pretty good at-bats.  His double just missed going out and his walk in the seventh was a nice at-bat.  He did strike out the following inning with two men on, but, on the whole, the move paid off.

I was surprised that Heyward sat against the right-hander.  Heyward is an automatic out against nearly everyone, but Coghlan is not much of an improvement.  If you were going to sit Heyward, I'd have thought seriously about Soler.  Maddon has gone all-in on platoon matchups lately, but the truth is that Soler has better stats against righties through his career.

Rondon looked rusty again.  One of the regrets of the lead-in to the playoffs is that, for whatever reason, Maddon was unable to get Rondon and Soler up to speed.  They were a big part of the team's success in last year's post-season.

One wonders why Maddon did not hit for Ross with the bases loaded in the seventh inning.  Contreras was already in the game and he later took over catching.  Soler and Almora were available and Almora ultimately replaced Ross in the batting order the following inning.

Wednesday it is Arrieta vs. Bauer.  I like the matchup even though Arrieta has not been the dominant force he was last year or earlier in the season.  It could be a long night as heavy rain is in the forecast and the starting time has already been moved up an hour in anticipation.

The Wait is Finally Over

Well, they did it, and in a pretty impressive fashion Saturday night.  Hendricks was superb.  I've always like Hendricks ever since they got him in the Demptster trade.  He has certainly developed almost to the point where one can legitimately compare him to Greg Maddux.  He is likely to be around as a dominant starter for quite a while.

As for Kershaw, the Cubs had him on the ropes from the beginning of the game.  Baseball is an oddly humbling game in some respects.  Hard to explain how a pitcher can go from compete control to struggle in the course of a week, but we saw an example in the two starts that Kershaw made.  Give the Cubs credit, though.  They did not succumb to all the hype, and, boy, there was plenty of it.  They had a great plan and they kept to it.

Maddon said after the game that their performance was on of the best games they had played all year.  I have to agree.  No panic, no jitters, no real mistakes, great pitching, solid hitting.  These guys are good.

Maybe now we can look forward to a weekend without the appalling references to Bartman and the goat and the Gatorade glove and whatnot, as well as the invincibility of Bumgarner and Kershaw, et al.

I don't know much about the Indians, other than they are a good, young team with good pitching.  Interesting that their best reliever is Andrew Miller, the guy the Cubs really wanted at the trade deadline.  On the subject of relievers, Kenley Jensen was impressive.  If the Cubs want to play in the expensive closer market in the off-season, I think he is a better bet than Chapman.

On a personal note, my father, besides being a diehard Cubs fan all his life, became an Indians fan when he lived in Ohio during the depression.  I guess he would have been happy to see them succeed as well.

On to Cleveland!

Poised to Advance

The Cubs pounded the Dodgers 8-4 Thursday night to bring the NLCS back to Wrigley Field for a potential elimination games Saturday and, if necessary, Sunday night.  Lester was impressive in his start, going seven tense innings.  Addison Russell was once again the batting hero.

The game was a tense and closely contested affair through seven innings with the Cubs on top 3-1 thanks to Lester and Russell.  They broke it open with an extended rally in the top of the eighth when, barely hitting it out of the infield, the Cubs parlayed a series of bunts, infield singles, and Dodger errors into two runs.  With the bases loaded, Baez sealed the game with a three-run double.

I have to say that the Dodgers are capable of some really awful baseball, which they proved Wednesday and Thursday nights.  I don't care how good Kershaw is, with these guys behind him, defeat is only a bobble away.

As to the Saturday lineup. Hendricks pitches.  I sincerely hope they bench Heyward again.  Otherwise things look pretty good.  It's going to be pretty cold at game time if tonight is any harbinger.

Incidentally, I really hope Maddon ditches any plans he might have to extend Chapman to a two inning save, especially if they have a significant lead.  I remember a number of outings Chapman had with the Reds where he blew big leads or else made things pretty uncomfortable for his team.  Chapman is a dominant force when he is used correctly, which is to say, when he starts the ninth inning with no one on base in a close game.  Otherwise, he can be a bit of an adventure.

The Bats are Back

The Cubs offense came alive in the fourth inning, sparked by an unlikely bunt single by Ben Zobrist.  After a couple of weakly hit singles from Baez and Contreras and an RBI grounder from Heyward, Addison Russell connected on a long home run to pretty much ice up the game.  An inning later, Rizzo launched one to center field to put the Cubs up 5-0.

Lackey pitched pretty well for four innings, then walked the first two batters in the fifth.  Maddon was ready with a quick hook.  Lackey did not look any too happy to be pulled, but it was the right call by Maddon.  The two walks eventually scored when Montgomery could not field or get his glove out of the way of a routine double play ball, but it didn't much matter after the Cubs added five more runs in the next inning to put the game out of reach.

It was good to see the team return to form and to add several sparkling defensive plays as well.  Roberts announced after the game that he would not start Kershaw Thursday night.  Unless something goes terribly awry, Lester will match up against Maeda and the Cubs will probably return to Wrigley Field with a one game advantage and the task of winning one of the two home games to advance.

Baseball is a funny game, full of tricks and turns.  The best team doesn't always win a short series, but the Cubs right now are the best team and you have to like their chances.  Meanwhile the Indians, somewhat surprisingly, made short work of the Blue Jays, winning the series 4-1.  For some bizarre reason known only to Bud Selig, the Indians will have home field advantage in the World Series.

An Embarrassing Loss

OK, getting shut out by Kershaw is understandable, but getting shut out and completely eviscerated by Rich Hill is not.  Not that Hill has not made himself a solid starting pitcher in his mid-thirties, but he is no Clayton Kershaw.  Hill actually came up with the Cubs and was a promising starter and productive part of the team's rotation in 2007.  After that, as I remember, he kind of fell apart, couldn't throw strikes if his life depended on it.  Then he bounced around as an undistinguished reliever for years and years and he even wound up in an independent league before he resurfaced at the end of 2015 with the Red Sox in four good starts down the stretch.  This year he has been the pitcher people thought he might become ten years ago, splitting time with the A's and the Dodgers.  He has been good, and he is a good story, but really, I mean, he is no Cy Young.

Anyway, the Cubs were hopeless against him and a succession of relievers including Kenley Jensen Tuesday night.  No life at all.  I thought Maddon's lineup shifts were justified even though Montero against a lefty is an automatic out these days.  Another lefty tomorrow and my guess is the same lineup goes with the exception of Contreras catching.  Actually, the only additions to the lineup were Soler and Montero.  Soler had one good at-bat that resulted in a walk.  Not exactly spectacular, but better than Heyward has been doing.  I was rather surprised Roberts left Jensen in to pitch the ninth inning when the Dodgers went up 6-0.  Maybe he'll get tired.

The Cubs bats need to wake up or this series is over and out, much as the Mets series last season even though this team is a far better team than last year's.  A win Wednesday evens things up and probably gives the Cubs an advantage as the Dodgers are unlikely to solve Lester Thursday night.  This brings up an interesting question in the form of Jake Arrieta, who once again turned in a disappointing playoff performance.  Actually, Arrieta has been pretty unreliable and inconsistent since the beginning of July.  The question is if it goes to Game 7, do you bring out Arrieta again or do you shuffle around with some left-handed combination that would put LA at a distinct disadvantage.  It would be a brave man to make that call.

A Tense, Tough Loss

Here's my take for what it is worth.  Kershaw was outstanding, similarly Jensen.  That is really all the Dodgers have, though, so I still like the Cubs chances.  Hendricks was also really good.  He gave up a home run to Gonzalez in the second inning on a good pitch that was a ball.  So, in this case, you have to tip your hat and move on.

Some observations, however.  The Cubs had one legitimate shot in the fifth inning when Baez and Contreras singled with two outs.  Heyward was due up.  Heyward is an automatic out most of the time this season, especially against a good left-hander.  The time to pinch hit Soler was then, not the following inning to lead off.  Later on, in the seventh inning, they had half-a-shot when Rizzo walked.  Baez just missed a pitch.  That was it. Kershaw was certainly on his game.  He had the benefit of a pretty generous strike zone and the Cubs were never able to run up his pitch count.  The only inning they got him to twenty pitches was the sixth, but, despite lengthy at-bats by Fowler and Bryant, he was able to tough it out.

Although Maddon has been adventurous with his bullpen and lineup switches late in the game, he has been uncharacteristically conservative in terms of his starting lineup and downright stubborn in terms of constructing his batting order during the playoffs.  While it is certainly defensible to bat Bryant second and Rizzo third, batting Zobrist cleanup is not a good choice.  Zobrist is a competent hitter, but the mere fact that he finished the season with 76 RBI batting behind a trio of players who came close individually to being on base at a .400 average means he did not consistently get the job done.  Russell, who had a fairly mediocre batting average, drove in 95 runs, which is a testament not so much to his abilities as a run producer, but to Zobrist's deficiencies.

The Cubs have been in a bit of a batting funk for several weeks now.  Some of this may have been due to the early clinching, the lack of meaningful games, and the constant lineup shuffling and days off during the final weeks of the season.  However, what is clear now is that the team is not producing offensively like a team that won 103 games and that to advance to the World Series, they need to start doing so.

The team is being carried through the playoffs largely by Fowler, Bryant, and Baez.  Also Contreras when he plays.  Rizzo is mired in a terrible slump and he is clearly pressing.  Russell is also slumping, and Heyward, of course, has produced nothing all year long.  Maddon's response has been to stick with these guys and to stick with a set lineup, which is a bit surprising because he usually plays matchups much more often than not.  It is also cool when there are seventy games left to play, but not so cool when there are potentially three.

My modest suggestion is to sit Heyward against lefties at a minimum.  I know he is a great defender and all that, but the Cubs weakness is not defense or pitching.  Unfortunately, Soler had a nagging injury late in the year and did not have enough appearances to regain his timing.  I would still start him against the lefty Tuesday night and I would bat him fourth or fifth.  Baez needs to move up in the lineup as well and Russell needs to drop down to seventh or eighth until he regains his stroke.  If you don't want to hit Zobrist second where he kind of belongs, you need to drop him down to sixth.

Maddon has not been afraid to shake things up in the past and it would be a shame to let the season slip away through taking too cautious an approach.

Wow!

Another memorable win.  There is something different about this Cubs team and I think the last two games more or less embody the difference.  This year's team doesn't lose games that turn against them at the end.  Previous Cubs teams would not have survived something like the Dodgers eighth inning comeback.  This team won.

Saturday's game was full of a lot of managerial moves, some good, some not so good, some maybe a little excessive.  As far as the Cubs go, perhaps Maddon got a little too cute with his bullpen after removing Lester.  At the time, I thought Lester might have been good for another inning or two.  After the game, Maddon explained that he thought Lester did not have his best stuff, so perhaps he was right to take him out with a chance to score an insurance run.

Roberts, on the other hand, made some poor moves.  The TV guys gave him a pass, but then, these are FOX TV guys and that pretty much guarantees they are wrong.  It was fairly obvious that Maddon wanted to get Contreras up against a lefty and that Roberts wanted to get Chapman out of the game.  I agree that getting Contreras up was trouble for the Dodgers.  I think, though, that if I am Roberts I want Chapman in the game.  He came on in a pressure situation in the eighth, threw a lot of stressful pitches, and, by and large, he is not good in multiple inning save situations.

So, with a man at second and one out, I can kind of agree with walking Heyward to pitch to Baez, though Baez is a hot hitter these days.  What I cannot figure out is the intentional walk to Coghlan, which has the sole function of forcing Maddon to pinch-hit for Chapman.  I mean, Coghlan is not exactly Babe Ruth.  He hit .188 in the regular season, which is worse than Montero, who checked in at .218.  Why wouldn't you pitch carefully to him?  So maybe he walks anyway or maybe he gets a hit to put the Cubs ahead or maybe he makes an out, which is the likeliest scenario.  Instead, you give Montero a shot with no room for error in exchange for getting a pitcher out of the game who, given his history, you probably want to keep in if only to use him up for tomorrow.

Just my thoughts for what they are worth.  I'm glad he made these moves, given that Montero hit a grand slam and won the game.

As far as the quality of play, I think the game exposed some chinks in the Dodgers armor and that the Cubs played a high quality game with perhaps one mental error, that being Bryant's attempt to make a 5-3 double-play that set up the Dodgers rally.  That, however, was a split-second decision that by chance went wrong.  The Dodgers, on the other hand, made at least two base-running mistakes that cost them dearly, the Gonzalez play earlier in the game where he was thrown out at home and the final play of the game when the runner at second was doubled up on the line drive to Rizzo.  Also, in the field, the Cubs turned in highlight reel plays all night in support of Lester, whereas the Dodgers did not provide the same support for Maeda.  In fact, you could assert that the Bryant first inning double that scored Fowler was misplayed and that the Baez bloop hit might have been caught by a Cubs defender.

Anyway, tomorrow night should be quite a pitching matchup, Kershaw vs. Hendricks.

Dodgers Advance

To be honest, I rather thought the deciding game between the Dodgers and the Nationals was a bit of a mess.  The Dodgers won on one big inning.  They had to use their closer for nearly three innings at the end and they had to use Clayton Kershaw for the final two outs.  Largely as a result of injuries, their pitching staff is a shambles.  They had to use Kershaw to start two games and Hill to start another two.  Neither were dominant in their starts.  The third starter, Maeda, got shelled in his start.  He will likely start Game One of the NLCS.

Anything can happen, but you have to like the Cubs chances.  The Cubs took the season series 4-3 and Lester and Hendricks, the likely starters in Games One and Two, were dominating in their respective starts against LA.

Unbelievable!

Well, they did it.  What more can you say?  Whereas Monday night, I really felt confident they would sail by to the NLCS, tonight I felt convinced they would lose and have to return to Chicago for a deciding game on Thursday night.

Baseball is hard to figure sometimes, actually more often than not.  The ninth inning rally Tuesday night is more the stuff of legend.  All night long the Cubs were stymied by Matt Moore, who had held them to two hits.  Once he was removed for what looked like a routine save for even the beleaguered Giants bullpen, the roof caved in.

What is even more fantastical is that it was evident that Maddon spoke to Contreras when the inning began, telling him to be ready to pinch hit if the Giants went to a left-hander, which Maddon was determined to see happen because he was going to insert pinch-hitters into the game until they were forced to do so.

After that hocus-pocus, I am sure the Cubs players must think that Maddon is some sort of sorcerer and that they will literally walk through walls should he tell them to do so.

People are knocking Bochy for taking Moore out, especially given the history of the Giants bullpen through the second half of the year.  However, the guy had thrown a lot of pitches and it looked as if even they could hold a three-run lead.  Maybe a better bet than supposing Chapman could pitch out of a jam and notch a six-out save.

Credit the Cubs sheer determination to win for this one though.  The first three at-bats of the inning by Bryant, Rizzo, and Zobrist set things up.  They were illustrations of the kind of grit that has got the Cubs to where they are today.  After that the Giants were on their heels and whatever momentum and confidence they had was gone.

Game 1 of the NLCS is Saturday night.  Not sure who they will play, as the Nationals/Dodgers series goes to Game 5 on Thursday.

Series Extended

What a wild and long game.  The Giants survived, just barely.  I was pretty confident the Cubs would prevail going into the eighth inning, but then the bullpen fell apart.  I cannot fault Maddon's thinking by bringing in Chapman for a two inning save, but that is going to be a problem when you use five relievers to get through two innings.  In the end, the Cubs were left with only Montgomery to get them through the rest of the game, with Edwards there to close it out should they get the lead.  Montgomery did a great job only to come a cropper in his fifth inning of work.

On the plus side, Arrieta pitched pretty well.  He got through six and left with a one-run lead.  The Cubs also managed to grind out at-bats and get Bumgarner out of the game after five innings.

On the minus side, besides the Chapman blown save, the Cubs did not produce with men on base.  They had a lot of chances, but they did not deliver.  Bryant and Fowler and sometimes Baez and Contreras are the whole offense so far and there are really some big holes in the lineup.  To my way of thinking, Rizzo has been the big disappointment.  He has been in a slump for a while now.  In the playoffs so far, he has had loads of opportunities but has not come through.  Actually, he seems anxious and undisciplined, which is really surprising for a guy who has built his career around the opposite batting approach.

Lackey pitches tonight.  He is a bulldog.  If he delivers a solid performance, the Cubs should advance without having to play a deciding game at home.

Two Down

The Cubs played another excellent game last night, winning 5-2.  The injury to Kyle Hendricks was scary, but it appears he is alright.  I can only think what a disaster this might have been for other recent Cubs teams in terms of morale and for the fans in terms of catastrophic thinking, but, in this case, they just played on and came out ahead.  The bullpen was fantastic, putting up five plus shutout innings with Travis Wood contributing a home run as well.

A couple of knocks.  Javier Baez has got to stop admiring balls he thinks he has hit out of the park and just run.  In this case, he did hit a double, but was called out on a stupid rule that needs to be changed.  I mean, his body was out of contact with second base for a nano-second after he almost broke his nose sliding headfirst into the Giants infielder.  The intent of the rule should be to compensate for a runner genuinely over-running the base.

Does anyone else think the coverage on FS1 and MLB Network is bizarre?  Nobody cares what Bill Murray is doing in the stands.  Nor do we really care how long it has been since the Cubs won a World Series or even played in one, not to mention the Indians, etc.  We also don't care about how stupid the playoff structure is and how absurd it is to be playing meaningful games in November, mainly because there is nothing anyone can do about it right now and all we really care about, no matter who you are rooting for, is this game.

The topper this evening was the interview with the Giants manager and the guy with the bow-tie.  These interviews are pretty mindless exercises in any case.  Last night, they managed to miss the Wood home run while this incessant blather was going on.  I wish there was not such a distinct network lag, so that it would be possible to mute the TV and just pick up the Cubs radio guys.

One Down

Ten to go, I guess.  That was an exciting, tense, and well-played game by both teams.  That being said, the game does expose some of the strengths and weaknesses of both clubs.  First off, Lester was in complete control most of the game, especially the second half.  I was at two of his last three starts before the playoffs, the winning ones.  He looked the same tonight on TV.  Lester is one of the best starters in baseball in money games, no doubt about it.  He might easily have completed the game, and I was a little surprised that Maddon hit for him with no one on base and two outs.  There may be a statement there as well, though.  Maddon has a lot of confidence in his bullpen, as well he should.

On the other hand, it is clear that the Giants have very little confidence in their relievers, elsewise Cueto, whose pitch count was well over 100, would not have gone out for the eighth inning.  In some respects, getting his pitch count up in a game where the Cubs had only two hits through seven innings and no walks was something of a testament to the skillfulness of the Cubs approach, even though positive results were lacking.

The Baez home run was really smacked, but it barely made it into the basket.  Baez just paused to admire the shot, flipped his bat, and then really had to hold his breath when the ball got up against the wind.  It went out, and it wasn't cheap.  On an ordinary night, it might have landed on Waveland.

A couple of other observations.  I really do not like Zobrist in the outfield and I especially do not like him in left field.  I also do not like him in the cleanup spot.  I expect tomorrow that he will be back in the infield and that Bryant will be in left field as the Cubs like to keep Baez in the lineup when Hendricks pitches as well.  Notwithstanding the platoon matchups, I would not mind seeing Soler in left.

You have to like the Cubs chances in Saturday's pitching matchup.  Hendricks is on a roll and Samardzija is a good enough pitcher but really not in the same class as the Cubs rotation.

It's the Giants

An interesting NL Wild Card game.  The Giants won 3-0 on the back of a dominant pitching performance by Bumgarner, who pretty much owns October baseball and a three run home run by one of the more unlikely post-season heroes, namely, the White Sox castoff Conor Gillaspie.

Other than the pitching, I was not especially impressed with either lineup.  I was leaning toward pulling for the Mets, but, in the end, I just couldn't do it.  With respect to the Giants, the Cubs are likely to play some tight games in the NLDS, much as the games were played in the season series.  The Giants have a good team.  In a way, their lineup is a lot like the Royals of the past two seasons.  They play good defense, they haven't much power, and they don't strike out much.  The Wild Card was a bit of an exception, at least while Syndergaard was in the game.

In terms of matchups with the Cubs, their starting pitching is pretty good, but I think a little short of the Cubs rotation with the exception of Bumgarner who, fortunately, will not pitch until Monday in San Francisco.  The Cubs bullpen is much superior.  Defensively, these teams are both exceptional.  Offensively, you have to give the Cubs a definite edge both in terms of power and their general approach.

Right now, both teams are playing good baseball.  You have to remember though that the Giants have only been playing well for about a week.  Before that they were in a terrible funk that lasted through the better part of July, August, and September.  The Cubs, on the other hand, have played well all season and finished strong.  You have to figure the Cubs should advance.

Playoff Rotation

Looks like Jon Lester will get the ball Friday night against either the Mets or the Giants.  He will be followed by Hendricks, Arrieta, and Lackey, if necessary.  Pretty much what was expected.  I hate to root for anyone in the NL Wild Card game between the Giants and the Mets.  All in all, the Cubs will match up better against the Mets starters, especially as their rotation has been decimated by injuries.  I think the Giants, however, are the better team.

I watched much of the AL Wild Card between peeks at the VP debate.  I wasn't much impressed with either team.  Not that I am a big fan of AL baseball, but these teams seemed pretty evenly matched.  The pitching was indifferent and both teams seemed to be built to score on the home run and little else.  All but one of the runs scored by either team was the result of home runs, the final three scoring in the bottom of the eleventh on an Encarnation three-run homer which mercifully put an end to what had proved an almost interminable game.

These teams clearly liked to swing for the fences.  There were twenty-three strikeouts as opposed to three walks.  In the end, the pitchers left standing were two guys thought to be washed up, Ubaldo Jimenez and Francisco Liriano.  I guess the verdict on Jimenez stands.  Liriano, who had had a really miserable year with Pittsburgh before being traded to the Blue Jays and somewhat rescuing his career, pitched two impressive innings of relief to get the win.

Actually, the most remarkable part of the game was Showalter's decision not to use his star closer, Zach Britton, who had not allowed an earned run in months and was perfect in save opportunities.  Rather typical of a guy who manages by the book.  Only use your closer on the road if you are ahead even if it means the season is over.

All this being said, I would not be surprised to see Toronto beat the Rangers in the ALDS.  I'm not a big fan of Texas either.

Another Memorable Game

Last night's game was another well-played gem and a fitting close to the season. Lester was in complete control until two outs into the 7th when things got almost too cute for comfort.

The weekend series became kind of a tribute to David Ross. Ross has become more or less an unofficial mascot for the fans and the younger players. He was greeted with standing ovations all night and rewarded the faithful with a home run that put the Cubs in the lead and brought the house down. 

Lester seemed to lose a bit of focus after Ross came out, but Edwards came in to get out of the inning. After an adventurous 8th with Grimm on the hill, Chapman came on to nail it down. 

All in all a good game and a fitting end to the season. As I have said before, I do not like the idea of playing the Cards in the NLDS and I hope they get eliminated. 

Post-season Prospects

The Cubs look like they are going to lose to the Cards today, which will even up the season series with one game remaining between them.  The Cubs are likely to win that one with Lester on the mound, but I was rather hoping they would sweep and move St. Louis closer to wild card elimination.  Frankly, I do not like the idea of playing them in the first round.  They play so often in the regular season that there is a risk of the same thing happening to the Cubs as happened to the Cards last year, although last year the teams were more evenly matched.

Hammel today pretty much pitched himself off the post-season roster.  You cannot afford to get blown out early in any post-season game.  That's the risk with him, and it is a risk they cannot afford to take.

It is going to be a challenge to stay sharp through the last week of the season and intonthe mini-break that comes after with the wild card games.  Maddon has been clever at manipulating the team sobfar, but it is a factor.

A final thought on the batting order for the playoffs, one the network guys made today.  Ibreally do not like Zobrist batting cleanup.  He should be hitting second even though he hits a lot of grounders.  The other thing the Cubs are going to have to consider is not playing Heyward against lefties.  He is a great outfielder, but his season so far is a little like having Sam Fuld in the lineup every day.  Cannot afford to concede an out every time he hits.

At the Game

The Cubs clinched something or other Tuesday night, home field for NLDS, which I thought they had already done, but anyway, some meaning was derived from the win.  Lester was in complete control throughout his appearance.  Indeed Lester this year, and especially since the All-Star break, has been the guy the Cubs expected when they signed him to the big contract.

I really like the Cubs approach as well.  They were patient and worked the counts.  I think they had the Reds starter well over sixty pitches by the third inning.  All in all, a good night at the ballpark.

Actually waited around to try to get a shot of the harvest moon rising by the scoreboard, but the game ended before it happened.  Next time.

Flying the "W" flag from the Deck Tonight

Quite a ride this season.  Today's game was pretty impressive.  The Cubs overcame a two run deficit in the bottom of the ninth and added a walk-off home run by Montero to win it in the tenth, all with none or nearly none of the regulars in the starting lineup.

Magic Number Down to Three

I have to confess that the success of this team is a little frightening for old-line Cubs fans like myself.  Monday's game was like watching a highlight reel.  The only disappointment was seeing Hendricks lose the no-hitter in the bottom of the ninth.  A tough break for sure.  On that subject, I do not know why - and I was not at the game, but just watching on TV - I just felt that Hendricks had special stuff more or less from the beginning.  As I have said, watching this team day in and day out just makes you wonder at how good they are and how good they might become.  Scary stuff.

Magic Number Down to Five

Which means it is possible the Cubs can clinch the Division as early as Wednesday afternoon, as they play the next three games in St. Louis.

The Cubs had their hitting shoes on Sunday night after a week of rather lackluster offensive performances.  They built up a 9-0 lead in the first four innings and cruised home thereafter.

The only real concern that I had was Arrieta's performance.  He was dominant through five innings.  Actually, he didn't have to pitch in any real sense with the big lead and spectacular defense.  He came a cropper in the sixth inning though, and that can be cause for some worry with the playoffs approaching.

Arrieta clearly has not been the same pitcher he was through the latter half of 2015 and the beginning of 2016.  Somehow or other, when he gets in trouble and has to really bear down, he is either over-throwing his pitches or not finishing them.  Hitters are laying off borderline stuff when he is in a jam.  The result is a lot of deep counts and walks and wild pitches.  Some observers had supposed some of these issues were the result of Contreras' inexperience, but on Sunday, David Ross was the catcher and the same thing happened.

That sixth inning was a bit of a nightmare.  Maddon was right to take him out when he did even with the big lead.  There was no point in adding to his obvious frustration at that point.

Mini-Slump

The Cubs are in a bit of a batting funk lately, especially with men on base.  This past week, they went 3-3 and averaged only 2 runs per game, their biggest output being 5 runs in a losing cause in the Hammel game last Wednesday.  I suppose it is a testament to the quality of their pitching, with the aforementioned Hammel game taken into account, that they were able to split the 6 games.

Lackey pitched very well again, though his temper proved his own worst enemy.  After a disputed pitch call, he worked himself into such a lather that he walked two guys and gave up a second and ultimately deciding run.  When he was a Cardinal, the Cubs managed to exploit this tendency in the NLDS.  Something to watch out for at the least.

Hammel!!!

I think we know who will not be in the playoff rotation after tonight's performance.

Streak Ends

Listening to Maddon's post-game remarks, how he likes their intensity, etc., I kind of felt I had watched a different game.  Actually, all these games against the Giants, like those against LA last weekend, had a kind of playoff intensity, or a playoff preview intensity.  In this game, though, the Cubs left the bases loaded twice late in the game.  Arrieta also let Crawford walk to third base and then threw a wild pitch to allow him to score what turned out to be the decisive run.  Also, Rizzo made an inexcusable base-running error in the ninth inning to get himself picked off second base on a successful sacrifice.

Actually, I really thought this game was played a lot sloppier by both teams than the first two games of the series.  Two of the Giants runs scored on Cubs misplays and the other was tainted as well by the wild pitch.  On the Giants side of the ledger, although Baez scoring on the infield hit was a marvelous display of alertness, it should never have happened.

On the subject of Arrieta, I saw an interesting piece on Fangraphs.  It is full of a lot of analysis and statistical stuff, but the gist of it is that Arrieta is having trouble commanding his slider, especially against left-handed hitters, because of a recently developed mechanical flaw.  I cannot speak to the validity of the claim, but Arrieta since July has not, by and large, been the same pitcher he was last year or earlier in the season.  He has a lot less command of his pitches, is getting the pitch count way up early in many of his starts, and he is just over-throwing some of his pitches in key situations.  Hence all the wild pitches that have really hurt his performance.  It cannot all be the result of the inexperience of Contreras.  Hopefully, he can right the ship before the playoffs.

Sweep

The Cubs secured a series sweep Wednesday night, staggering into an agonizing 6-5 win that featured some less than stellar performances by Chapman and the challenged back end of the bullpen.  Wood, in particular, looks gassed after what seems like several hundred appearances.  If the Cubs had to rely on the current lot of bullpen arms, they might be in big trouble, but they are likely to get Rondon back soon and Strop by mid-September.

Hammel looked better last night than he did in Colorado and LA.  He did, however manage to pitch himself into trouble in the 5th.  Hammel always seems to give opponents a shot in the middle innings.  Maybe that's when he starts over-thinking.  Last night he managed to walk a bunch of Pirates despite the umpire's mile-wide strike zone.  He got away relatively unscathed, but he did cost the bullpen an extra inning of work which ultimately made the came a nearer thing than it should have been.

That being said, the Pirates look like a team that has lost its bearings and knows it.  Marte and McCutcheon seem to be endlessly amused by being outplayed and emarrassed at the plate and in the field.  I especially noticed the Pirates seem to always align their outfield defense shallow and pilled around to left field.  This led to taking bad angles to several balls and having a number of hits go over their heads.

As for the Tuesday game, this one was all about Hendricks who continues his impressive season.  This guy knows how to pitch.

The Giants come in tonight for four games.  Should be an interesting series and possible post-season preview.  Smart money would look for a split inasmuch as the Giants are playing for survival.  After the SF series, the Cubs can look to coasting home to October against a set of mostly also-rans and non-contenders save for St. Louis.

What a Game

I was lucky enough to be out there last night.  One of the most exciting games I have witnessed.  The Cubs blew a lot of chances to put it away early and late.  But they did come back in the eighth and ninth innings.  The atmosphere then was electric.

Actually, the won the game three times in retrospect, with Baez being called out twice at home to make the final out.  I thought he was safe the first time and out the second.  Actually, the home plate umpire was kind of a joke and both teams were upset with the inconsistency of his strike zone, among other things.

The Cubs almost blew it in the top of the 13th, but Rob Z. did bounce back to limit the damage.  The bottom of the inning was illustrative of just how good this team can play when they set their minds to it.  It was nice to see Montero come up with the game winner.  The only guy who has had a more disappointing season has been Heyward.  Montero has handled his demotion to part time duty pretty well given the circumstances.

A Really Tough Loss

The Cubs suffered a bit of a mental breakdown in the eighth inning in an otherwise tight game in LA.  Actually, the LA series had the aura of a playoff rehearsal.  All the games were tight. The last two hinged on a couple of plays that might have gone either way.  Additionally, both teams played somewhat nervous baseball.

Sunday's game was decided in the eighth inning when Cahill, with one out, and a runner at first, threw wildly to first base on a play that ordinarily, while difficult, is usually made.  An intentional walk loaded the bases and brought in Edwards.

Edwards struck out Turner, then induced a weak grounder to Baez at third.  With the slow-footed Gonzalez running and the infield in an exaggerated shift, Baez unaccountably made a force attempt at second instead of the sure out at first.  The play was close at second.  Looking at the replays, the runner could as easily have been called out, but the call stood and the ballgame was lost.

I suppose plays like that are inevitable when you play a lot of different defensive setups and a lot of personnel in different positions.  It's also a testament to how good this team is that they might easily have won eight of the nine games but for a few bad breaks.

Looking ahead to the playoffs, which is kind of what everyone is doing although they will not admit it, I wonder if the Cubs have some issues to overcome in terms of the likely first round opponent.  Barring a total collapse, the Cubs are going to finish with the best record in the NL and hence will play the Wild Card team.  If one were to wager on the matter, that team is likely to be the Dodgers or the Giants.  Either one is, I think, a more dangerous opponent in a short series than the Nationals would be in seven games for the championship.

In any case, lets hope they bounce back at home.

Road Trip

The Cubs are on track to have a winning West Coast trip, having won five of eight thus far and figuring to beat the Dodgers Sunday behind Jon Lester.  The Dodgers just do not do well against even ordinary lefties, so their chances against Lester look slim.

That being said, the Dodgers have played the Cubs tough, which you would expect from a team that leads its division.  The Cubs, I thought, should have taken two of three in Denver, blowing a lead in extra innings and then getting stomped in Hammel's start before they righted the ship.  They then thoroughly dominated the Padres, which was to be expected.

Friday night they pulled one out in extra innings behind Bryant's heroics.  Saturday they lost a game they might have won.  Two plays I did not get which ultimately made a difference.  Why did Zobrist bunt in the first inning with no outs and men at first and second base?  I mean, why give a young pitcher a free out when he is on the ropes right out of the box.  The second questionable play was the Heyward steal in the seventh with Fowler up and Bryant on deck.  Both plays conceivably had a potential result on the outcome of the game.

These strategic lapses are kind of buried in the news by the controversy between Hammel and Maddon when Maddon pulled his starter in the third inning.  Actually, I can see why Maddon did it and I really approve the move.  Hammel is a ground ball pitcher who was not throwing grounders even when he got through the first inning unscathed.  He was clearly pitching badly and had definitely lost confidence.  Also, the Dodgers only beat right-handers these days.

So by pulling Hammel for Zastryzny, Maddon kept the Cubs in the game.  And actually, they almost pulled it out.  Leaving Hammel in may have soothed his ego, but likely would have led to an insurmountable Dodgers lead.  As an aside, Zastryzny and Montgomery have both been pretty impressive.  They give the Cubs some real options both later this season and for next year in what is honestly an ageing rotation.

Latest Moves

The Cubs, as expected, swept the Brewers. Waiting out a rain delay to start the Rockies series.

Some unexpected developments on the roster front.  The Cubs put Lackey and Rondon on the DL as precautionary measures, whatever that means.  They recalled two guys no one has ever heard of, a starter named Zastryzny and a reliever named Pena.  I'd have expected Cahill to pick up Lackey's start, but maybe not.

Earlier they put the dreadful Joe Smith on the DL and recalled Patton, who pitched well on Thursday in relief.  Also DLed Coghlan to allow Cahill to remain active.  LaStella has evidently agreed to reort to AA Tennessee, though I read somewhere that he got hit in the foot in his first game there.  Expect him back soon to take Coghlan's spot.

Finally, Maddon has benched/rested Heyward for the Colorado series.  Strange stuff that, though Heyward right now is really messed up at the plate.

Two Bad Innings

The Cubs extended their winning streak to eleven with two big wins over the Cards before bullpen woes cost them the final two games over the weekend.  It was a shame to waste two good starts from Hendricks and Lackey, but, in the long view, it is no big deal.  The Cards gained no ground in the division race and four games were wiped off the books.

People are all crazy about the bullpen, but Rondon's outing was not that bad an augury for the future.  He threw hard, had good stuff, got in trouble and lacked command.  It is easy to panic right now and start signing has-beens and clubhouse nightmares like Papelbon.  I sincerely hope the front office resists the temptation.  Strop looks like he will return before the playoffs, and the injury to Lackey seems minor.

In general, the Cubs system is not producing young, reliable, exploitable arms in the way most teams do, so they are relatively dependent on trades and free agency to build a bullpen from other teams' failed projects.  Until that changes, the bullpen will always be a work in progress.  As long as the starters deliver, this is a manageable proposition.

One of the few worrying tendencies lately has been that the offense is wasting a lot of chances and not delivering hits with men in scoring position.  Some of this may be the function of the lineup.  Maddon plays everyone and plays the matchups. This is not going to change.  However, I must confess I do not like Zobrist batting cleanup.  Fowler, Bryant, and Rizzo are on-base at nearly a .400 clip, but the guy driving them in mostly is Russell, not Zobrist.  Also, I'm thinking there is no spot too low in the batting order for Heyward, who continues to excel in the field and disappoint at the plate.

Nine in a Row

The Cubs completely dominated the Angels, much as they did in the opening series of the season in Anaheim.  The Angels are not a bad hitting team.  It is their pitching that stinks, largely owing to key injuries.  However, Trout and Pujols combined for a single infield hit through the home and home series in thirty ABs.  So one must conclude the Cubs pitching is pretty good.

I have to eat my words about Hammel this year.  I had observed that he could look pretty good through the first half, but tended to tail off spectacularly after the All-Star Game.  This year, though, he has maintained his stuff.  Last night he pitched a terrific game.

The only bad moment of the series was the Strop injury.  One hopes it is not serious, but any damage to a knee is going to sideline a pitcher for a bit at least.  Strop will have an MRI tomorrow, so one hopes for the best.  Strop is an integral part of the bullpen rotation, so losing him even for a short time is going to hurt the team.  Thanks to all the trades and such before the deadline, though, the Cubs are pretty deep and should weather the storm.

The whole LaStella story gets stranger by the day.  LaStella gave an extensive radio interview on Monday.  Basically he said he was disappointed to be sent down because of roster issues and the fact he still had options, but that he was not sulking about that.  He pretty much said, however, he had no interest in playing anywhere but at the major league level with the Cubs and that, for a variety of reasons, particularly his history of injuries, he was considering retirement  if he could not work things out.

I suppose one needs to credit athletes with being more complicated people than fans think.  In LaStella's case, however, you wonder whether it had to come to this.  In essence, LaStella was optioned to make room for Chris Coghlan.  On paper, Coghlan appears to be the more versatile player.  He can play a number of infield positions as well as the corner outfield spots.  LaStella, on the other hand, is strictly an infielder.

However, Coghlan is having an awful year and the Cubs had little problem parting ways with him after they signed Fowler..  Combined with the Oakland stats, he is hitting .158.  LaStella was batting nearly .300 and was a valuable bench player.  Coghlan, since his return, has appeared in only four games and none since Aug. 3.  He is 2 for 9 in those games, with 2 walks and 2 RBI, which is not exactly setting the world afire.  If they needed his bat and versatility so much, you have to wonder why he hasn't appeared in a game for a whole week.  So the Cubs have been more or less invincible since all this hoopla started. which possibly demonstrates they don't actually need either one of these guys, but you cannot help thinking this shuffling was not the best of all possible ways to handle the situation.

Cubs Sweep A's

The Cubs swept Oakland on the road over the weekend in pretty impressive style.  The pitching was more or less flawless, with Lester, Arrieta, and Hendricks tossing gems.  Soler returned to the lineup and rather confirmed our earlier assessment of his talents and how much the Cubs missed his bat.  He DHed during the series and hit two home runs and a run scoring double, all of which were key hits.

Right now this team is almost without any serious weaknesses.  They have extended their lead in the division over the Cardinals to eleven games.  They are 16-6 since the break and have won ten of their last eleven games, and seven in a row.  This week they begin another long homestand against the Angels.  The St. Louis series this weekend gives them an opportunity to virtually eliminate the Cards from contention even for a wildcard berth.  What can you say?

The Cubs now are playing a weird numbers game, greedily trying to manipulate their roster to hold on to every available asset until rosters expand in September.  One assumes they will swap out Hammel and Grimm on Wednesday.  After that, they are likely to activate Cahill for a spot start in the Brewers double-header.  I'm not sure what the rule is respecting Cahill after that.  He is now on an extended rehab assignment and presumably out of options.

LaStella is kind of the mystery man.  He was sent down more than a week ago, but he was reported to be quite upset and has not yet reported to AAA.  I kind of think he was treated unfairly in some respects.  He was a valuable utility player and pinch hitter and he certainly is more valuable an asset than Coghlan.  The Cubs can use a good left-handed bat off the bench.  One supposes that on paper Coghlan is the more versatile player, and, of course, the Cubs risk losing him if he is placed on waivers or DFAed.  However, they pretty much sent him packing in the spring and got along well enough without him.  Also, he is having a bad year.

Cubs Win

Had a chance to take in a really good tight game, although, to be honest, even though the final score was 3-2, it never looked as if the Cubs were in danger of losing.  Hammel pitched quite well for six innings.  Strop pitched better than his line looks.  He actually threw five outs in 2/3 of an inning, botching up an easy double play and accidentally deflecting another sure DP that turned into a run-scoring hit.    Strop did manage to strike out Ichiro, denying him a bid to inch closer to the 3,000 hit mark.  Rondon came on to pitch a tricky but scoreless eighth inning, and Chapman came on for the save.  The picture above shows Ichiro just before he struck out and the one below shows the final out of the game.

Joe Smith After All

I confess I still don't get this one, though the cost is low and Smith adds "funk" to the bullpen mix, whatever that is.  Patton, who was called up to replace Matusz, will undoubtedly be dispatched back to Iowa to make room for Smith.  What happens next is anyone's guess, however.  The Cubs have Soler and Cahill due off the DL on rehab assignments, as well as LaStella and Grimm who were sent down because they had options.  It is a whole month before rosters expand.

As near as I can tell, and this is just an educated guess, the only guys left on the roster with options are Edwards and Contreras.  Both players have been performing very well, so it is unlikely they will go anywhere.  I suppose Nathan is expendable right now.  He has no real role in the bullpen and honestly has not pitched all that well.  Also, at his age he might well clear waivers were he DFAed.  I suppose Coghlan might also, though that could be less of a certainty.  I suppose the Cubs want to maintain maximum flexibility for the playoff rosters, but all this juggling is getting a little tricky.

Meanwhile, the team played nearly flawless baseball Monday night to shut out a good Marlins team 5-0.  Flawless I suppose with the exception they left a ton of men on base early in the game.  Hendricks continues to impress.  Right now, as I have noted before, he is the Cubs best pitcher.

Joe Smith?

Rumors have it the Cubs are looking at a deal with the Angels for Joe Smith.  Since his early days as a modestly successful closer with the Indians and the Angels, Smith has settled in as a submarining setup guy.  He is pretty much a journeyman specialist in the Cubs scheme of things.  Hard to figure this one out.  The Cubs already have two players at AAA who should be on the ML roster and a third on a rehab assignment.  Not to mention carrying one pitcher too many.  Granted Matusz is expendible, but who else?  Surely the Cubs have not yet come to terms with Nathan being kind of a bust, but things are getting a little crowded right now.  Lets hope the deadline comes soon without any really dumb, cute moves.

Wild Games

The Cubs lost a game on Saturday they would and should normally have won, then came back to score an improbable victory Sunday night in a game they had no business even contesting.  I had a chance to score tickets for Sunday, but passed it up because the Cubs were going to start  Matucz instead of Hendricks.  I was congratulating myself for the wisdom of my decision after three innings with the team down 6-0.  Later on, of course, I changed my mind.

I cannot dispute the idea of giving the starters an extra day off.  However, Matusz?  I mean, this guy should be put on the first bus back to Iowa or parts unknown.  He was seriously bad, and the Cubs were lucky they were down only six runs when Maddon finally pulled him.  The ESPN guys were speculating that starting him was some sort of showcase effort.  In that case, it misfired for sure.

Things got a lot better once Matusz was gone.  Edwards continues to impress.  The crowd was treated to another Maddon magic show when he swapped out Wood and Strop for a couple of innings.  Maddon is either a genius or lucky as hell.  Strop gave up a long fly ball to left that Travis Wood somehow wandered around and caught against the ivy.  Later on, in the twelfth inning, he pulled another rabbit out of the hat, using Jon Lester to pinch hit a squeeze bunt with two strikes to win the game.

This may be a team of destiny.  Who knows?  Along the way, they played some serious, hustling baseball.  Contreras beat the relay on an almost certain double play in the ninth to score a run.  Later he made a marvelous catch near the bullpen on a ball most left-fielders would have given up on.  Russell made several dazzling stops and throws.  Heyward, who has been stinking things up at the plate for most of the season, finally delivered a key double to start the twelfth, alertly advanced to third on Contreras' fly to center, and scored on the Lester bunt with a perfect read.

It looks as if the Cubs are done dealing with the Chapman trade, but you kind of wonder about some of the latest roster moves as possibly being showcases of some sort.  We have already discussed the Matusz start, which was preceded by optioning Grimm, a rather integral piece of the bullpen, to Iowa.  The Cubs also brought Coghlan off the DL and optioned LaStella, which was in itself an odd move, give that Coghlan was considered expendable enough to deal off to Oakland last winter, and that LaStella has performed rather consistently all year long.

The Cubs right now, and until they finally decide to carry twelve pitchers like everyone else, have too many players who should be on the major league roster and too few slots.  They are going to have to find a spot for Soler pretty soon.  Maybe they will send off Matusz to make room, but they still need to recall LaStella and Grimm and activate Cahill in the near future at least for a spot start, so somebody has to go.

More Thoughts on the Deal

Just from listening to a bit of sports talk, my guess is tha Cubs are going to have to do some PR, at a minimum, to make the Chapman trade palatable for a goodly segment of their base, including me.

Also, one wonders if they have got this right from an analytical perspective.  They did not swoon before the break because their bullpen fell apart. Their bullpen fell apart because its weaknesses were exposed due to the string of bad and short starts by Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, and Hammel.  The back end of the pen is better than average.  The middle is weak, and, since the Cubs will never use a strong piece to keep a game close, they have lost a lot of games because they have not been able to stay close through the middle innings.

The other reason for the skid was the offense, which was impacted by a series of injuries, notably Fowler and Soler.  Time will fix these, and, on the offensive front, picking up a left-ganded batting outfielder like Reddick would help if the cost is manageable.

As for the starters, with Warren out of the mix now, look for the Cubs to stretch out Cahill just in case.  Hard to see getting another starter of equal ability to those now in the rotation unless injury forces their hand.

Chapman Trade

Looks as if the Cubs are going to acquire Aroldis Chapman from the Yankees in exchange for a package of four players, three of whom are likely prospects, viz., Gleybar Torres, Billy McKinney, and Rashad Crawford, with Adam Warren being the only veteran.  The package does not include Jorge Soler or Jameir Candelario, which is certainly good news.

I have mixed feelings about the trade.  It most assuredly puts the Cubs in a superior position, especially for the playoffs.  On the other hand, it would appear the Cubs are overpaying for a guy who is likely only a rental and has expressed a strong preference toward remaining in New York and resigning as a free agent next season.

That is, unless the Cubs are working on some sort of extension deal.  In which case, there are other misgivings to be considered as well.  This guy is coming off a thirty day suspension for domestic abuse and carries a bunch of baggage.

As far as what they Cubs are giving up, Torres is obviously the key.  He is a consensus top prospect on everyone's list.  The Cubs can, however, afford to lose him in that he is at least a year and maybe more away from the majors and is a shortstop.  The Cubs have so many shortstops now they don't know what to do with them.

With respect to Warren, I originally thought he might be a future fifth starter, but he has been really disappointing.  He has not shown in his stint with the Cubs that he is suited to a relief or swing role.

McKinney is a hard one to evaluate.  He was a first round pick by Oakland.  He excelled at A+ level in the Cubs organization last year as well as AA late in the year, but he has regressed this year at the same AA level, which, I think, in the Cubs view, makes him expendable.  Not, in other words, a top tier outfield prospect when compared to others in the system.

Crawford looks like a middling prospect playing in A ball.  Hard to evaluate him as well, but he looks like a throw-in at best.