Free Agent News

Unfortunately not much, at least so far as the Cubs are concerned.  I expect this is mainly owing to the market for the top of the line starters and relievers being slow to develop.  That's mainly due, I think to the exaggerated demands being discussed for their services.

Darvish and Arrieta are generally supposed to be the pick of this group, with Cobb and Lynn heading the second tier.  I'd like to see the Cubs pursue Darvish and pass on Arrieta.  The truth is, nobody should be signing pitchers of this caliber to six year deals, especially for the kind of money they are seeking, which is in the neighborhood of $25MM annually.

At the beginning of the free agent season, Cobb was thought to be a great buy at around $50MM for four years.  Turns out he is looking for five years and something like $80MM.  Lynn seems to be the only one of these four who has not priced himself out of the market.  It looks as if he will be the last to go after the first three settle.

Relief pitchers, an even more risky commodity, are looking for similarly inflated deals, at least the top of the market guys like Davis and Holland.  Davis has signed with the Rockies for $52MM over three years, which is around $17MM annually.  That's kind of absurd on the face of it.  Davis was excellent last year for the Cubs, but if you look at his peripherals and his performance down the stretch, there are abundant red flags.  Kind of glad the team passed on him.  Holland is looking for similar money.  Given his injury history and the fact his performance slacked off quite a bit toward the end of the year, he represents a considerable risk.

I rather think the Cubs have done well thus far in this market.  There are still quite good relief pitchers out there, Reed and Watson among them.  To my mind, Watson is a good fit for the Cubs.  Should they obtain him, they might just settle on Montgomery as the fifth starter and go from there.

If you look at the big splash free agent signing in the Epstein era, they haven't exactly set the world on fire.  The Cubs paid Earnest Jackson good money to be a complete flop.  They signed Ben Zobrist to a four year deal, admittedly not a blockbuster, but so far they have got one good year, one terrible year, and two years of probably declining skills as this veteran player ages.

The Cubs gained instant respectability by signing Lester in 2015, but, in all honesty, he was a bit of a dud in his first season, coming on at the end, then had a super 2016 before a mediocre 2017.  The team is on the hook for three more years at least for over $20MM a year.

The other big ticket player was Heyward, who is on the books for big bucks till God knows when.  He might turn things around, but don't bet on it.  If he does, he'll probably opt out the next year.

I'm not especially faulting Epstein and Hoyer here.  The truth is there are more albatross contracts on the high end in MLB than bargains.

Darvish

Word is the Cubs are meeting with Yu Darvish.  I had expected them to move in his direction earlier, but the market for starters has taken a while to develop.  There are four free agent starters of quality remaining now: Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, and Lynn, mentioned roughly in order of merit.  It seems the Cubs were after Cobb, but his asking price is pretty high and the Cubs were turned off.  The same appears true of Arrieta, at least in that the asking price is ridiculously high.  I like the idea of Darvish joining the Cubs, though the price might be costly.

So far the Cubs have focused on pitching this off-season.  Why not? Despite all the carping about not having a leadoff man and whatever, the team scored over 800 runs last year, an average of five runs a game.  800 runs is good enough for a championship most years unless you are Colorado.

The off-season has brought in Chatwood, whom I regard as a great choice, as well as Smyly from the starting pitcher group.  Smyly is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is likely to miss most if not all of 2018.

On the relievers front, the Cubs have reeled in Morrow, right now the likely closer, as well as Cishek, a likely setup man although he has closer experience.  Davis, of course, is still unsigned, but his return is unlikely, especially if the Cubs go all in on Darvish or Cobb.  Austin Reed has been linked to the Cubs as well.  Reed would probably fill the closer role.

Notably lacking among the bullpen options are left-handers, which probably explains management's insistence on relegating Montgomery to the swingman role.  Justin Wilson is now the only experienced lefty pure reliever on the squad, though they signed Dario Alvarez, something of an unproven quantity to say the least. On this score, Duensing is still on the market.  The Cubs could do a lot worse than landing him to fill out the bullpen.

Rumor Mill

The Cubs signed Drew Smyly to a two year deal.  He is not expected to recover from Tommy John surgery until August, so this is a pretty minor signing.  Smyly was once a hot prospect for Detroit and pitched pretty well for Tampa Bay.  He seems to have been injury prone for much of his career as his only season with 30 starts was 2016, his last full season as he missed all of 2017.

There was a bit of a controversy when Ken Rosenthal attributed some remarks to Mike Montgomery about his preference to being a starter and his general discontent.  I wouldn't put much stock in it as Hoyer denied the whole business.  It has been an open secret that Montgomery wants to work into a starting role as opposed to being a swingman.  Personally, I've always thought he could make that transition and never could figure out why the Cubs didn't use him in a starting role exclusively.

Maddon is quoted as saying he would not rule out using Kyle Schwarber as a leadoff man again.  This is completely idiotic on Maddon's part as that experiment had a lot to do with the Cubs poor performance in the first half of 2017 and pretty much ruined Schwarber's season.

The Cubs are, I think, unlikely to trade for another starter.  Most likely, they will target Cobb for that role and then try to land at least another reliever or two in order to retool the bullpen.  I seriously doubt that Archer is available by trade and even if he is on the block, the Cubs do not have the farm system right now to acquire him.  There are similar rumors to the effect the Cubs could trade for Brad Hand of San Diego.  Again, in this case I doubt you move major league talent for a relief pitcher.

The Cubs bullpen now consists of Morrow, Strop, Montgomery, Edwards, Wilson, and Grimm.  That leaves one slot open for sure and probably two given the wretched performance of Grimm last year.  They should be able to fill these openings through the free agent market even if they do not sign Davis, which is the likely scenario in any case.

No Ohtani

I have to say it is no surprise the Cubs lost out on the Ohtani sweepstakes.  They were pretty much a long shot to begin with.  Now that Ohtani is off the table, I rather think the market for a lot of the big pitching assets will start to settle.  As far as the Cubs are concerned, I honestly do not see them trading for either a starter or a reliever at this stage of things.  There are just too many front line and middle of the rotation guys available on the open market right now.  I kind of think they will make a play for Darvish, although this is far from certain.  Cobb is the more likely target.  As to relievers, it is not beyond imagination for them to try to land Davis, but, in a way, Davis is a costly piece who carries a lot of risk.  I'm not a fan of paying relief pitchers big bucks as in general, I believe that closers are overrated commodities and the shelf life of relief pitchers is pretty limited.  The Cubs have apparently made offers to Brandon Morrow and Austin Reed, either one of whom would be nice additions, Morrow presumably as the closer in waiting.  Should be an interesting week coming up.

Thumps Up for Chatwood Signing

Earlier this autumn, I noted that Tyler Chatwood might be the sleeper in the free agent starters market.  I think signing him was a smart move.  People have already noted the strong numbers he has achieved away from Coors Field, something like a three run ERA differential.  Chatwood is 27 which means he is on the cusp of his prime years.  He is, by all reports, the hardest thrower among the free agent starters, gets a lot of ground balls, and has crisp breaking stuff.  I really like this acquisition.  Dare I suggest he has a high upside comparable to Arrieta's when he was acquired from Baltimore.

Hot Stove

So Rondon was non-tendered and Justin Grimm was. Not sure wht happened to him after the Cubs brought in Chapman. He was good in the setup role after that until he was injured. Then Maddon seemed to lose confidence in him. Last year was pretty bad, but I can see him recovering form on another team. Grimm’s retention is a puzzler  This guy really stinks.

The latest conclusion is that Arrieta is gone. Not surprising. Someone will offer two years more than he is worth and overpay. The one sure big bucks free gent is Darvish. Kind of surprised the Cubs are not bigger players here.

Word is the Cubs have made offers to Morrow and Cobb, both sound moves. Also appear to be interested in Minor. All in on Ohtani as well, but that’s a long shot.

I tend to discount most of the outlandish trade rumors floating around. The truth is their only trade chips are Baez and Happ and that Happ should be untouchable . Baez will only be moved in a blockbuster for someone in the Archer or Cole quality sector. Trades like that won’t happen.

I kind of think Davis is gone too. I should write a piece on relievers, closers especially, and how overrated they are. The truth about Davis is he is by no means in the Jansen or Miller category.  It is also the case that he has lost four or five mph off his fastball, which is why he has to nibble so much and rely on his secondary pitches for outs.

Reflections

Before speculating on the moves the Cubs might make toward improvement in 2018 and then retiring for a long winter's nap, I thought I would try to summarize the season.  It certainly was frustrating to say the least, but, for all the doom and gloom, the Cubs recovered from their first half mediocrity and did wind up playing exceptionally well down the stretch.  49-25 after the break isn't bad baseball, nor is 92 wins.

The Cubs couldn't hit at all in the first half.  Part might have been the after-effects of the World Series run, part also the lack of a leadoff man with Dexter Fowler's departure to free agency.  Certainly, the Kyle Schwarber leadoff experiment was a dreadful flop.  Zobrist battled some nagging injuries early in the season, as did Russell.  Zobrist never did recover his earlier form.  Heyward was supposed to have remade his swing, but, as the season wore on, it was clear he continued to be an unproductive player despite his vaunted defensive prowess.

The season did see the emergence of Ian Happ as versatile offensive force, as well as the further development of Willson Contreras as a potential star.  Contreras carried the team through their post-break surge and his injury slowed down their momentum until they picked up Alex Avila and Rene Rivera to bridge the gap.  Baez continued to develop as well, though he is an amazingly streaky player who can look great for a stretch and then lapse back to his wild-swinging past.

All in all, this is a team that looks built to dominate offensively for several years as they continue to mature.

As far as pitching goes, I really think this was the Achilles heel and not so much because they were really bad in many fundamental respects.  If you look at the World Series teams recently, it is actually the pitching, both starters and relievers, that has the hardest time repeating the kind of success they enjoyed in the golden year.

That being said, if you compare the starting rotations of 2016 and 2017, a fuller appreciation of what happened emerges.  Through 2016, the Cubs had an impressive rotation of Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Lackey, and Hammel.  They all pitched deep into games.  Toward the end of the year, you could see that Lackey and Hammel were weakening, and that Arrieta had lost a little of the complete command he displayed in the first half of the year, but, by and large, these guys never faltered and never missed any significant time to injuries.

In 2017, things were a lot different.  Arrieta seemed to lose a couple of mph off his fastball.  He appeared to recover some of his form as the season wore on, but an injury in September set him back again.  Lester, as well, wasn't the same guy, and an injury in August set him back as well.  Hendricks was their best pitcher, especially after he recovered from a hand injury and rejoined the rotation after the break.  Lackey was mediocre pretty much all year with the exception of a brief stretch in August when he looked reasonably good.  Anderson, an ill-advised investment, came apart in April and spent the season on the DL.  The big spark to the pitching staff was the acquisition of Quintana, without whom they might not have won the division.  Montgomery also filled an important role as a swingman.

People blame the bullpen, but when you think about how many innings they had to pick up because of the rotation's issues, it is not really a surprise they came up so short in the playoffs.  Over the course of the year, Davis was very good in the closer role.  Edwards, Strop, Duensing and Montgomery were, on the whole, more assets than liabilities.  Rondon was inconsistent.  Grimm was awful.  Wilson was disappointing.

So really, when you come down to it, the Cubs had a pretty good year that ultimately ended prematurely because their starting pitching let them down.  Arrieta is a free agent and he is probably gone.  They need to acquire at least one front-line starter to replace him.  My choice for this role is Darvish.  Ohtani would be great, but, lets face it, he has to be considered a long shot.  Archer is not going to happen.  Even were he available, the Cubs do not have the package to land him.  Anyway, Archer is not at all in the class of the first two we mentioned.

Once they figure out who the big arm is, there are plenty of choices among the middle of the rotation pitchers.  My favorite is Chatwood, but Cobb could fill the bill as well.

Winter meetings are coming up.  We'll see what happens.

Free Agents

The Cubs will potentially lose nine players to free agency this year.  Most of them are pitchers: Arrieta, Davis, Lackey, Uehara, and Duensing.  They will also lose catchers Avila and Rivera and outfielder Jay.  So there are surely holes to fill and not much in the way of players to promote this year.

The Cubs have made qualifying offers to Arrieta and Davis.  Arrieta is a risky guy to sign to more than a four year deal, actually a risky proposition any way you look at it.  Rumor has it he wants six years.  He has had a significant decline in performance since the middle of 2016.  My guess is the Cubs will make a decent offer of no more than four years and start looking elsewhere if it winds up on hold.  Davis is another story.  He will be a lot cheaper than Arrieta and would undoubtedly accept four years.  He put up great numbers especially early in the season, though he walked a lot of hitters especially later on in the season.  Of course, all the Cubs relievers started nibbling either from overuse or some other reason, so maybe there is less concern there than meets the eye.  Personally, I am not a big fan of signing relievers to big money, multi-year contracts.  These guys will often disappoint.

For some reason, Lackey seems unwilling to retire.  In any case, he has no apparent future with the Cubs, so he is gone.  So is Uehara, who will either retire or return to Japan.  Duensing is an intriguing prospect to return.  He pitched really well in relief and he would be a cheap option to shore up the bullpen.

Jay is another player who might come back, though rumor has it he is likely to sign elsewhere for multiple years and the team has a glut of outfielders already.  The same is true of Avila, who is almost certain to sign elsewhere and receive assurances of a starting role.  Rivera is a different story.  If the Cubs want to sign a veteran backup rather than promoting Caratini to that role, look for that guy to be Rivera who performed surprisingly well as a late season acquisition.

The Cubs have a slew of arbitration eligible players starting with Bryant, Hendricks, and Russell, each of whom is a lock to be retained and one or more of whom may receive multi-year offers.  The others are Rondon, Grimm, and LaStella.  LaStella almost certainly will be retained.  Grimm almost certainly will be non-tendered.  There is speculation the Cubs will also non-tender Rondon, though in this respect they may be making a mistake.

Who will the Cubs go after in the free agent market?  This could work out several ways.  Everybody wants Otani, but the Cubs would be a long shot there.  Of the top notch starters besides Arrieta, Darvish stands out.  He is a little younger than Arrieta.  My guess is the Cubs might take a shot at him in preference to Arrieta.  Sure he pitched two really crappy games in the World Series, but he was dynamite with the Dodgers before then.  Darvish, because he was traded, cannot receive a qualifying offer and thus will not cost a draft pick in exchange.

There are many second tier starters on the market.  Cobb from Tampa Bay and Lynn from the Cardinals come to mind.  These are serviceable pitchers who would slot in nicely and will not cost a lot.  Both, however, were offered QOs, which hurts their prospects of attaining killer deals.

Similarly, there are tons of really decent to really good relievers available, starting with Morrow from the Dodgers, but including Reed, Holland, Cishek, really tons of others.  I look for the Cubs to sign at least two of the maybe ten or twelve relievers eligible for free agency.  The one guy I really like is Mike Minor, who is coming off a great comeback year with the Royals.  Rumor has it he wants to return to a starter role, but he fits in nicely with the Cubs needs either way or as a swingman. Another starting pitcher I like is Tyler Chatwood.  Chatwood was hit hard in Denver, but on the road, he was quite good.

As far a trades go, I'm not that anxious for the Cubs to venture too deeply there.  There are lots of rumors about Chris Archer, but, honestly, I suppose it is a question of how much the front office really values him.  He is in his late twenties, he's been around a while, and he has not established himself as a dominant pitcher yet.

The question also is how much the Cubs want to give up in terms of position players and, really, how much they have to offer.  People are talking about trading Schwarber or Russell or Baez or Happ.  Russell and Schwarber are coming off down years and frankly the Cubs would be selling low.  These players have little trade value now plus Russell is really good.  I would really be disappointed should the Cubs trade Happ.  In my mind, he is another player with star potential.  Baez has the most value now as a trade piece, but, despite his inconsistency, I rather doubt the Cubs would trade him except for a genuine #1 or #2 starter.

The players the Cubs would like to dump are most likely Zobrist and Heyward.  However, their contracts, especially Heyward's, make them virtual albatrosses.  I could see someone picking up Zobrist at the deadline, especially if they have an injury, but otherwise not.  Heyward is a perfect illustration of the dangers of signing expensive, long-term deals.  Baez is the most marketable commodity of the group.

Trade Speculation

Phil Rogers has an article forecasting potential trade targets for the Cubs this offseason, as well as potential trade candidates on the team.  None of them make much sense.  The targets are all pitchers: Archer, Stroman, Nola, Fulmer, and Manaea.  They are all reasonably good, not great or established arms, more in the way of #3 or #4 starters with the exception of Archer who might project as a #2.  They are all around 24 or 25 years old with again the exception of Archer who is 29.  Therein lies the problem with this sort of speculation.  These guys are all young and under favorable team control for a long time and they are all on teams that are in the process of a rebuild or should be.  So the truth is that none of these guys are going anywhere unless the return is more substantial than the Cubs are likely to offer.

In return, Rogers suggests the Cubs dangle Schwarber and/or Baez and/or Russell, possibly Happ.  the problem here is that Schwarber and Russell are coming off down years where their value has been downgraded.  Baez is, in my mind, completely overrated in terms of his achievement right now.  He has made progress, but he still has a ways to go.  Happ, I think, is a potential star.  I would hope the Cubs are not thinking about dealing him off for a second-tier pitcher unless they want to draw comparisons to the Lou Brock trade.

All this speculation completely ignores the pitchers of comparable value who are available on the free agent market, namely, Cobb, Lynn, and Chatwood.  These guys are just as good, reasonably young, and available for nothing.  Another aspect of this as well is that Epstein and Hoyer really haven't traded a player who had an established record with the major league team and a considerable fan following.  They have traded players of enormous potential who nobody had heard of, and, early on, players of some ability but no role in the future rebuild.

The Big Shake-Up

The Cubs were surprisingly inept in the playoffs, but they appear to have saved the biggest surprises for the off-season in terms of the dismissals of pitching coach Bosio and hitting coach Mallee, also their third base coach as an afterthought.

Bosio's firing was probably the biggest surprise, as he was credited with improving a host of starting pitchers, most of whom were traded off to build the players who developed into the championship and perennial contender the Cubs are today.  Some of them are still around, though, and formed a basis for the team's success, including Arrieta, Hendricks, Quintana, Duensing, Edwards, and Strop, to name a few.

I have speculated that the replacement of Bosio with Hickey, a longtime Maddon associate, might signal a shift on the Cubs part toward the development of younger arms, something, with the exception of Hendricks and Edwards, the Cubs have not accomplished.  In any case, the deed was done.

I was not especially surprised at the dismissal of Mallee.  By and large, the Cubs hitters did not take the next step this season after their World Series triumph.  Injuries held back Addison Russell, but, Schwarber, for example, was a bust for most of the season and Heyward continued to struggle.  Chili Davis has a great reputation, so lets hope he delivers the goods.

The biggest hit in the whole affair was taken by Maddon, who looked either like a superior Machiavellian manipulator or a complete jerk depending on one's point-of-view.  This is mainly the result of his pre-elimination interview where he virtually assured all his coaches they were coming back if they wanted to stay and then promptly dumped the better part of them.  Epstein had to come out and rescue the peerless leader by claiming the whole mess was a decision of the triumvirate of himself, the manager, and GM Hoyer and just part of the overall evaluation process that would make things better in the end.

Generally speaking, I like Maddon and I think he is a good manager, but lately he has been getting on people's nerves, chiefly by never owning up to bad decisions and taking responsibility for them.  He managed the team rather badly through the playoffs, not that they would likely have advanced in any event, but, still...

There was an adage in baseball, or maybe I made it up to suit my point, to the effect that players and teams win games and manager's lose them.  That honestly was true in the World Series last season when Maddon did put them in a position to lose and the team rallied on its own to claim the championship.

Post-Mortem

I managed to get a ticket to Game 5 through a friend. First time at a post-season game. The game was pretty depressing. The Cubs were, of course, never in it. Really the only playoff game that was not closely contested for the team, even though one always thought they would lose in the end. I would have thought the crowd would be into it, at least at the start and  for the first two innings, but things never got really exciting. After the slam, it was over.

Whereas last year was magic, this year was not. Right from the start, things were off. They managed to right the ship after the break and play good ball, but they seemed to have little left for the playoffs. I rather disagree that the relatively weak post-break schedule accounts for that late season success. They played most of September against the Brewers and Cardinals, both of which were better teams than people give them credit for being.

What happened in the playoffs is they were outplayed and out-pitched. Their hitters were completely undisciplined. They seemed to forget all about working the count and grinding at-bats, traits that have been their hallmark. I don’t think starting pitching was necessarily their main weakness in the playoffs. The bullpen, though, sucked.  The bullpen was a weakness before that as well. One thing the Cubs do need to assess is the whole issue of pacing the starters through the season. Deliberately shortening  starts does lead to bullpen fatigue, which, coupled with some late season setbacks to Lester and Arrieta, meant trouble later on.

So Bosio is out, allegedly because his pitchers couldn’t throw strikes. This may signal a change of focus. Bosio was good at reprogramming more veteran arms, but he didn’t really develop much in the way of young pitching with the exception of Hendricks. Of course, the Cubs system has not produced much material to work with. Hickey, the rumored replacement, on the other hand, has been outstanding through his Tampa years in this respect. Also he is an old Maddon guy.

Epstein sort of hinted at being willing to trade a younger player for pitching. The question is making the right choice. Among the position players, the Cubs are saddled with one big contract, Heyward, who is pretty much a flop and who is robbing younger guys of at-bats and another, Zobrist, who is showing signs of rust.

The team will potentially lose Arrieta, Lackey, and Davis to free agency. Lackey will likely retire, but  he won’t be back anyway. It would help to sign Arrieta or Davis. They probably cannot afford both and they need to be careful about signing pitchers in their thirties to long term deals.

Given the regression of several younger stars in terms of hitting this season and in the playoffs especially, one wonders how safe the hitting coach/coaches are.

Backs to the Wall

I have to say one thing and that is that the Cubs have grit and determination.  The Game 4 win was not pretty.  They still haven't scored a run other than by the home run, but the won.  Contreras and Baez came to life while the remainder of the team remained somnolent.

Arrieta pitched very well.  Davis, who is pretty much lost to the team until Saturday, gutted out a six-out save.  Well, they won, and that's what counts.

One observation: Davis really isn't any good at the multiple inning saves.  His performance was more or less identical to the Game 5 NLDS save in that he was shaky until the ninth when he was dominant.  I don't know what the psychology of this situation is on both the pitching and hitting ends, but there is something going on there.  Maddon would be well advised to consider this for the future.

Another observation: the umpiring in this series has been pretty strange.  OK, the Contreras play in Game 2 hinged on a peculiar interpretation of a rather vague rule about catchers blocking home plate.  However, the one Wednesday night does play up a pretty strange set of rules.

So, although one may appeal a hit by pitch ruling, one may not appeal a foul tip call even though they involve an almost identical set of observations.  However, in this case, the Dodgers were permitted to overturn a decision based initially on the ruling of an umpire standing inches from the play in favor of an umpire standing more than a hundred feet away.  Maddon got tossed again.  He kept gesturing toward the giant left field scoreboard that clearly confirmed the original ruling.  The umpires resolutely refused to look at it.  Go figure.  In the end, of course, it didn't matter, as Granderson struck out on the next pitch.

Game 2

I have to say that Maddon's management of the team thus far through the playoffs has been eccentric and rather arrogant.  I hate to harp on this chord, but, come on, John Lackey in relief with the game on the line.  Who is kidding whom?  So he liked the matchup with Taylor and he left him in to face Turner because he was going to pitch the tenth inning, which, of course, only means that he did not believe the Cubs would score in the top of the inning and that Lackey would blow the game anyway next time around.  Or something.  The media is definitely cutting Maddon way too much slack.  Rondon and Davis, experienced relievers who can more or less be counted on to get a single out were available.  No one knows why Lackey is even on the roster.

Granted the Cubs are not hitting a lick and are striking out at alarming rates, but...

Some other issues.  Unlike Saturday when Quintana was good to go another inning, Lester was struggling and his pitch count was high, so there is no quarrel there.  However, with Rizzo at first and two outs in the top of the ninth inning, why does Almora take his at-bat?  Almora almost never hits against righties in those situations.  Maddon has Happ, Schwarber, LaStella, and Avila available.

These playoff games have been nail-biters throughout, but besides the general inability of the Cubs to score runs, what stands out has been that each loss has hinged in one way or another on pitching decisions that Maddon has made that have turned sour.

In terms of the Dodgers, the Cubs match up quite well with them in terms of position players and their bench.  There are only three real difference makers in the Dodgers lineup, Turner, Bellinger, and possibly Puig.  Puig, though, is a flamboyant and undisciplined player rather like Baez, so you could make an argument either way there.  Where the Dodgers excel, however, is with their pitching, especially the bullpen, which has been dominant so far against the Cubs.  Still, this team should be doing a lot better.  Despite both sides neutralizing their opponents starting pitching by running up the pitch counts, the Cubs have got to figure out a way to do the same thing with the Dodgers bullpen.

NLCS Game 1

So the Cubs were outplayed today anyway though they managed to chase Kershaw after five innings. But here’s something I do not get.  Why do you go to a bullpen that has been shaky throughout the playoffs when Quintana is pitching well and has a relatively low pitch count?  No big deal to lose Game 1, but...

Bizzare

Anyway, what a competitive series.  And the final game, what can you say?  That was one of the most exciting and crazy games I've ever seen.  In the end, the Cubs prevailed, mainly on the strength of a series of weird plays in the fifth and eighth inning and on sheer grit.

To begin with, Hendricks, who, on the whole, pitched well, had a bad second inning when, for some reason, he and Contreras thought the way to go was to throw high fastballs to the Washington hitters.  The result was 4-1 deficit early, but Gio Gonzalez wasn't exactly the answer for the Nationals either.  Gonzalez was wild and let the Cubs back in, leaving after three innings ahead only by a run.

The fifth inning turned things around in the Cubs favor.  Scherzer was Dusty Baker's ace in the hole, but after getting two quick outs in relief to start the inning, the wheels came off for him.  The Cubs got an infield single from Contreras and a bloop single from Zobrist.  Addison Russell then smashed the first pitch down the left field line to give the Cubs a 5-4 lead.  That's when things got weird and wild.

Heyward was intentionally walked.  That brought up Javier Baez, who dutifully struck himself out on some wild swings.  The last one, though, bounced through the catcher's legs.  Baez's bat may have bonked Weiters mask on the follow-through, which would have made the play dead in Weiters mind, but nobody noticed.  Everyone started running like crazy.  Weiters retrieved the ball and proceeded to launch it into right field.  Actually, the rule only applies when a runner is stealing a base, so Weiters and a number of commentators are wrong in giving him an out here.

In the end, Russell scored.  That wasn't it.  LaStella batted for Hendricks.  With two strikes, Weiters, who was clearly having a bad night, touched LaStella's bat with his glove on a foul ball, leading to a call of catcher's interference.  Scherzer then hit Jay with a pitch to force in a run.

To me, even though the Nationals clawed back to within a run, that was the game.  It is impossible to over-estimate the emotional cost of playing your trump card and having it blow up in your face, especially as a result of a series of improbable events.

The last series instance of bizarro world happened in the midst of a Washington rally in the bottom of the eighth.  Wade Davis had come in to rescue the Cubs from another Edwards-induced crisis.  He struck out Zimmerman to end the seventh.  In the eighth, however, he didn't have it.  Actually, the only outs he recorded were a scorched double play grounder from Lind and the Contreras pickoff.  Even though the Washington runner beat the throw to first and was out because his foot came off the base, you have to wonder why he was wandering around in no-man's-land with a huge secondary lead and Contreras catching.

That was it.  Davis recovered his form in the ninth, striking out Harper on a 3-2 pitch to seal the victory.

My take-away from all this is the Cubs bats didn't so much come alive, but their indomitable will.  Somehow, just as in the World Series last year, they found a way to win.  They are a formidable team, to say the least.

As to who is going to pitch Game 1 of the NLCS, that seems to be anyone's guess.  You have to assume anyone who pitched over the last two games is out, which means Lester, Hendricks, Arrieta, and probably Quintana.  The same goes for Montgomery.  Unless they think Quintana's short and ineffective appearance Thursday didn't ruin things for Saturday, you have to believe it will be Lackey.

Maddon!

I have to say that a lot of prople have a problem with the way Maddon manages in the post-season and that today I have officially joined the club.  I mean, I have no real problem removing Arrieta who was pitching bravely but not very well.  I actually don’t have a problem bringing in Lester in relief. I kind of question replacing Lester with a man at first and two outs. Pitchers like Lester get out of trouble. That’s why they are paid. But replacing him with Edwards?  Come on. Is Edwards the only guy in the bullpen?  Isn’t Strop available?

The other thing is that Edwards blew Game 2 under similar circumstances. Furthermore, you can always tell when Edwards doesn’t have it because he is wild. One walk and that should be it. As it is, the Nats have had two competitive innings and have brought the series back to Washington. Unconscionable.

Hendricks goes Thursday night against either Gonzalez or Roark. Maddon has already telegraphed his intention to use Quintana if he is faced with an Arrieta-like situation. Which is fine were it not for his proclivity to take Hendricks out when he doesn’t have to do so. It also begs the question why Lackey is on the playoff roster if not to pitch long relief should one of the starters falter early.

NLDS

I was all set to send the Cubs on to a sweep of the Nationals and the NLCS before the 8th inning yesterday.  I still like their chances.  First off, the idea is to split the away games in a short series.  The Cubs have done this. Second, it’s not the first time they have suffered a bullpen meltdown and bounced back.

Until that fateful inning, the Cubs had played nearly flawless baseball. They can probably bounce back Monday against Washington. Anyway, returning home for two games gives them a considerable advantage.

As to the roster moves and bullpen setup, I had a still have doubts.  Picking Lackey over Rondon was a surprise. It can only mean that there is not absolute confidence in Arrieta. Picking Martin over the same choice is also odd. The Cubs have a lot of good defensive choices in the outfield andvthe likelihood of using Martin to steal a base late is pretty remote.

Not having that extra short reliever showed up a little bit last night. I was surprised to see Edwards trotted out again for the 8th.  Sure, he gets lefties out when he is on, but starting the inning with a right-handder more or less means Lind will pinch hit. Starting with a left-hander, knowing Baker’s proclivities, means he is on the bench and probably means Harper bats with no one on base.  Later on, not having Rondon to use for one out means you have to either stick with Montgomery or bring on Davis early.

Playoff Thoughts

So the season is over.  A strange one based on expectations, but it is still the case that the Cubs and Indians have the best two records through the second half, which, of course, when pennants and championships are won or lost.  There is also a certain advantage to playing the best baseball at the end of the season and to playing meaningful games late in the year.  The Cubs have certainly done that.

After the Brewers swept the Cubs at home, the team won fifteen of the final nineteen games, going nine and two against their division rivals, eight of which games were on the road.  They are coming into the NLDS as a hot team and a pretty healthy one with the exception of some questions about Jake Arrieta.  The Nationals have their own issues with Max Scherzer whose injury may be minor or significant.  The Nationals also have some concerns about Harper, though he looked good in the final game of the season.

The Cubs have some decisions to make with respect to their starting rotation, especially if Arrieta is still recovering from his injury.  He was not sharp in his last start and the fact he skipped his scheduled Sunday start is of some concern.  All in all, Hendricks has been the Cubs best pitcher in the second half and has certainly earned the opening game start.  Apparently Maddon has narrowed the choice to Hendricks or Lester.  I can understand picking Lester in view of his playoff experience and the fact the Nationals have a strong left-handed hitting lineup.  However, Lester has been off most of the year and not too great in September.  Unless Arrieta is especially impressive in his simulated game Wednesday, I kind of think Quintana gets the third game.

This is going to be a tough series, but I like the Cubs chances for all the reasons cited above.  Also, this team is really deep at all the positions.  They honestly have guys who could start on most teams relegated to the bench half the time at every spot.  Few teams can match that kind of flexibility. 

A Bad Day for Maddon

I doubt the Cubs loss Saturday afternoon will have any real effect on the season's outcome.  Still, it was a tough one to stomach.  Maddon was quick to defend Wade Davis and to discourage anyone tempted to blame him for the defeat, which, incidentally, deflected any blame away from himself for shoddy bullpen management.  Actually, Davis is to blame for the defeat.  He was given the lead twice and blew it both times.  This is an objective fact.  It is also the case that Davis has been pretty much flawless in late inning relief, having converted every save opportunity this season and having lost one game when he came on with the score tied.  So, sure, cut him some slack, but don't pretend he did not give up two home runs when his team had the lead.

Actually, if anyone is at fault here, it is Maddon.  Davis has appeared in six of the last eight games the Cubs have played.  He has also not attempted a two inning save all year.  His longest previous outing, within the last week, was a four out save.  It is also the case that Davis did not have it and Maddon had alternatives.  One hopes this is not a trend for the Cubs manager, as he really did botch up bullpen and pitching management in general through the playoffs and World Series last year.

The thing I have not seen criticized about Saturday's game is the game strategy.  I mean, the ninth and tenth innings worked out in the sense that the Cubs came out of each inning with a run that put them ahead.  However, since when do the Cubs play small ball and bunt with position players at bat and nobody out and a platoon advantage.  Similarly, although it is against the book to put the winning run on base, the smart play is to walk Shaw with a runner at second and an open base, simply because Shaw is the only guy on the Brewers who can beat you.

As a final digression in this rant, shouldn't Maddon keep his mouth shut about politics and so-called respect for the White House and its current unworthy occupant?  Even NFL owners, one of the more fascist groups in modern America, have the good sense to exercise some discretion in this matter.

Looming Showdown

The Cubs meet the Brewers beginning tonight in a crucial four game series which will likely determine the winner of the division and, should the Cubs sweep or win three of four, the likely second wild card team. I like the Cubs chances despite their recent offensive woes in Tampa. 

Meanwhile Jon Lester continues to struggle.  He was 3-0 since returning from the DL, but those were not dominant starts by any means. Last night was dreadful.  He lacked command and velocity. Worst of all were the soft tossess picking off runners.  Geez, can't the guy practice throwing to the bases?  I mean he can ordinarily throw 90 mph to home plate.  45 mph straight would have nabbed any of the Rays runners.  What playoff teams are going to take away is they can basically take a thirty foot lead from any base and get away with it.

Cubs Sweep Again

The Cubs swept the Cards over the weekend.  Whether the losses to the Brewers the previous weekend were a wake up call or not, the Cubs have played very well since, drubbing the woeful Mets and pretty much dominating the Cardinals as well.  With thirteen games remaining, even though four are against the Cubs, you have to assume the Cardinals are finished.  Six games is a lot to make up with such a small number remaining.

Milwaukee is another story.  They won again on Monday night, but they still have their work cut out for them going into the weekend against the Cubs.  Not sure why the Cubs have put Montgomery back into the rotation to face Tampa on Tuesday unless they want to give Arrieta another day or two to shape up.  The only thing it does is to push Lester back a day, which means he will miss the Brewers series altogether.  I thought maybe he had better numbers against the Cardinals, but he has pitched pretty well against both opponents over the past few years, so it has to be an Arrieta thing.

Cubs Sweep Mets

So the Cubs will enter the crucial weekend series with the Cardinals three games up on them and the Brewers.  It could be worse.  I was out at the park Thursday night, probably for the last time this season unless the final weekend series with the Reds is meaningful or I score a chance to purchase playoff tickets.  There was a good atmosphere and confidence held up even though the team played sloppy baseball early in the game and the rookie pitcher Tseng never seemed comfortable.  I must say he showed some promise though he was overmatched right now.

Actually, I'm not certain why the Cubs gave him the start other than the desire to move Montgomery back to the bullpen.  Montgomery eventually entered the game in the fourth, pitched two solid innings and came away as the winning pitcher.  After Tseng exited in the fourth, the Cubs, who had stayed close through three innings, put on kind of a hitting and baserunning clinic to thoroughly outclass their opponents.

In the end, the Mets proved to be totally incompetent in almost every facet of the game.  It seemed fitting the game ended on a freakish play where the final out was made against a baserunner who attempted to score from second on a dribbler maybe ten feet up the third base line that Avila somehow thought he should field even though it was almost certainly going foul.  Avila fell down and rolled over into foul territory in the process, righted himself only to discover the Mets baserunner half way down the third base line.  He flipped the ball to Pena who applied the tag ten or fifteen feet in front of home plate to end the game.

Time to Panic?

Not yet.  But there is genuine cause for concern.  The Cubs entered the weekend series with a five game lead over the Brewers and the Cardinals and left with a two game lead over their rivals.  In the process, they played three really awful games and wasted two excellent starts by Lackey and Hendricks sandwiched around a stinker from Montgomery.

What can you say?  Earlier in the season, it was the starters who were letting them down most often.  Now it is the hitting.  In the current stretch since their six game winning streak ended, the Cubs have struck out 74 times.  One thing that strikes me is that in these streaks of lackluster performance, the team as a whole is not just pressing, but guessing as well.  This seems to have certainly been the case against Milwaukee the past weekend.  They seemed to be off balance all the time, to be expecting a fast ball and getting a breaking ball or a changeup, and vice versa.  That or the opponents have scouted them very well and the Cubs have failed to scout them.

The team can certainly bounce back.  It is also the case they have eleven games remaining against their principal rivals and the remaining eight against teams that are not very good, viz. the Mets, Rays, and Reds.  Milwaukee and St. Louis end the season facing each other, which could certainly work to the Cubs advantage should they have even a slim division lead.  They should also be cheered that Milwaukee lost to the Pirates Monday night.

Still, they missed a golden opportunity to end the Brewers season once and for all last weekend.

Another Stinker

Just when you think this club is ready to step on the gas, they let up.  After six straight wins, the Cubs have managed to lose three in a row, scoring only four runs in the process.  Tuesday was no different.  The team got rolling early, scoring three runs in the first three innings, then stalled against what amounted to a AAA relief pitcher and an assortment of bullpen arms.  The only thing they had on common was they were left-handed, as was Atlanta's starter on Sunday.  All one can say about that right-handed hitting lineup the Cubs have fielded lately is they stink.  I mean, it is one thing to rely on a heavily right-handed lineup when it includes Contreras and Russell as well as the regulars, another when it does not.

Another observation about this game - and it was a shame to waste a masterful performance by Hendricks - is that Maddon was simply out-managed.  Hurtle must have realized the Cubs had fielded a weak collection of hitters even though they were predominantly right-handed, as he stuck to lefties from his bullpen throughout.  The Cubs had no answer from their bench, as it was almost exclusively left-handed.  Maddon replaced Hendricks with Edwards in the seventh.  Edwards got the strikeout to strand the Pirates baserunner, but he was obviously wild.  In the eighth he just blew the game.  To my mind, Edwards has been very, very good and very, very awful lately by turns.  You can always tell when the latter is the case because he is wild.

The Cubs are still 3 1/2 up on the Brewers, but they still cannot afford to blow games like that without paying the price. especially as Arrieta is likely to miss at least one start and Russell is a couple of weeks away from a return.

Cubs Win!

The Cubs played well Tuesday night.  Nothing remarkable, but I feel I ought to put out a post since I was there.  The game was a pitchers' duel until the sixth inning when the Cubs broke it open with three runs.  Zobrist started it with a home run.  The Cubs then loaded the bases before Avila singled and Heyward hit a sacrifice fly.  Later on Rizzo hit an RBI double to drive home Bryant, who had walked.  That's Rizzo above standing at second base after the hit.

Arrieta pitched a good game.  I was a little surprised to see him removed after the three run rally, but he was at 97 pitches.  I still like to see starters go seven innings, especially when they are working on a two-hit shutout.  Perhaps I am more old school than I imagine.  Uehara immediately gave up a home run and the Cubs needed two more relievers to bring the game to Davis who pitched a scoreless ninth inning.

Since St. Louis clobbered Milwaukee, the Cubs extended their division lead to 3 1/2 games.

Speaking of being old school or whatever, but I have been going to baseball games since I was six years old and I don't remember so many fans getting hit and hurt by foul balls.  I was sitting in a box seat well down the right field line.  Someone was hit by a Baez liner well above where I was seated and maybe ten rows over, probably in line with where the bullpens used to be.  I couldn't see much, but people were gathered around the injured person for ten or fifteen minutes before he was moved out.  Down there you usually get popups and lazy foul flies, especially that far up and down the line.  The really mean fouls used to land in the lower infield boxes.  Not sure if people are just not paying much attention or if the balls are being hit a lot harder than expected on these occasions.

Montgomery

The Cubs won Monday night largely on the strength of Mike Montgomery's pitching performance.  Actually, I have made this point on several occasions.  The Cubs are only as good as their starting pitchers.  This season they have not been up to the performances they recorded last year.  The Cubs have a championship caliber lineup that has not been performing as such for whatever reason.  So when their starters do not pitch into the seventh inning at least in a tighter game, the bullpen starts failing more often and they wind up looking pretty mediocre.  Such was the case pretty much throughout the so-called basement tour when they went 8-5 against the worst teams in baseball.

It is true that there has been improvement in this regard since the All-Star break, but there are still problems.  Lester is hurt, but before that, in August, he was not pitching well or deep into games.  Maybe it was the injury.  Who knows?  Lackey seemed to have turned the corner after returning from the DL, but lets face it, he had outstanding run support in that stretch and he still never made it past the sixth inning.  Quintana has been a major disappointment, and, again, has not pitched deep into games.

That leaves just Hendricks and Arrieta among the starters who can be relied upon consistently, as well as Montgomery who has pitched very well in a stopgap role, better than the guys he has been replacing.

I read where the Cubs were kicking around the idea of using a six man rotation through September.  To my mind, it's a good idea.  Maybe it will help.

The Basement Tour Continues

Actually, this is a pretty good time for the Cubs to be playing last place teams.  Not only do they need to put some distance between themselves and their division rivals, but they have experienced some injury issues.  Addison Russell is still sidelined, as is Willson Contreras, not to mention Jon Lester missing at least one turn.

In terms of the pitching shortfall, Mike Montgomery acquitted himself quite well on Tuesday evening, delivering six scoreless innings after being staked to a nine run lead early on.  In any case, the Cubs are 7-2 in the first phase of the tour.  They have extended their lead over the Brewers to 3 1/2 games.

As mentioned above, the remainder of the Cubs schedule is pretty easy.  The only teams above .500 they have to play are division rivals Milwaukee and St. Louis.  These might be tough series and will undoubtedly determine the division winner, but these are teams the Cubs can beat.

Tough Losses

The Cubs have been playing indifferent baseball again lately.  They had a good series against Arizona, but the return home has not been the expected triumph.  They split a series with a really awful Cincinnati team when they might have swept or at least taken three of four.

Hard to say what's gone wrong.  They have a stretch coming up where they play some bad teams.  Theoretically, they should fatten up on this competition and coast home from there, but I am beginning to wonder.

Thursday's loss was a tough one, not merely because Lester had a bad outing and left with an injury, but when you come back from nine runs down and tie the game, you have to win.  Once again, the bullpen could not come through late.  This time it was Grimm and Wilson who blew it.  Actually, the late inning relievers almost botched up the Wednesday night game as well.

It's hard to figure why these guys cannot throw strikes late in the game.  They seem to be pitching without confidence or else too fine.  Walks killed them in the other series they messed up earlier in the month, but those were against good teams.  Part of the problem is the starting pitching.  They have been pretty good of late.  Most notably, Lackey and Arrieta look as if they are back in form.  Hendricks also seems like his old self.  The thing is that they are still not pitching into the seventh inning most of the time.  This means that instead of needing to cover two or three innings at most, the relievers have to cover three or four or even five.  Over the long haul, this is going to take its toll.

I expect the Cubs thought the addition of Wilson would take away some of the pressure, but Wilson has been terrible.  Uehara is hurt, so the Cubs have had to bring back Grimm.  Grimm has had a dreadful year, so that just makes things worse.  Although they have had some issues, the Cubs can only rely on Montgomery, who is really the long man as evidenced in Thursday's game when he shut the door and kept the team in the game, Strop, Edwards, Duensing, and Davis.

Grimm and Wilson are useless.  Rondon is struggling as well.  This is OK if you need to cover two innings, but should you need three or more, you have to go with Grimm and Wilson, so you are likely to give up some runs.  The other factor here is that Maddon insists on managing his bullpen in a particularly unimaginative fashion.  He will never use Davis when the team is behind, even by a single run when there is no possibility of a save opportunity.  He will rarely use him in a tie game either, even at home.  Wednesday's game was a rare exception and it payed off.  Maddon rarely goes to his first string when the game is tied or the opponent has a narrow lead.

So what this adds up to is this.  The Cubs are in big trouble if Lester misses more than one start and they don't get Uehara back pretty soon.  They are still likely to hang on to the division, but after that, it is anyone's guess how far they will go.

Losing Homestand

The Cubs head west to play the Giants and Diamondbacks still in first place by half-a-game.  Willson Contreras is still on fire at the plate.  It is difficult to ponder how bad the series with Arizona and Washington might have been without his bat, but the fact is they still lost both series.  It is also the case they probably should have won them were it not for bullpen issues.

The Thursday loss to Arizona was a weird game in which the Cubs game back to tie the score only to lose it in the ninth when Wade Davis gave up two home runs.  I suppose this is going to happen every once in a while.  Davis is certainly among the best closers in the league and he is entitled to blow a game every once in a while.

Edwards is another story altogether.  He has just been awful lately.  Either he cannot throw strikes or he gets hammered.  I know he has electric stuff and all that and I know that Maddon thinks he is great, but it is probably time to think about giving him a breather or changing his role.  Sunday's game was a disaster.

It's likely that the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Nationals will be the playoff teams in the NL.  What with the Dodger running away with the West, the Cubs are likely to face the Nationals in the first round of the playoffs.  I think the teams are evenly matched right now.  I also think the Cubs can survive that round, but the odds on getting to the Series based on current trends seem slim.

Latest Trade

The Cubs continued their post-All-Star streak, beating the Brewers again and moving 2 1/2 games up.  Lackey pitched well for a change.

The Cubs also filled two minor holes in preparation for a playoff run.  They added Justin Wilson, who has been functioning as Detroit's closer and doing pretty well.  He is a left-hander, which will give the Cubs a pretty balanced bullpen and allow Montgomery to move into a long relief spot starter role.  They also picked up the veteran catcher Avila, who is having a good year and will likely fill the role vacated by the abrupt departure of Miguel Montero.

The Cubs gave up a good major league ready prospect in Candelario.  I liked Candelario even though he didn't produce much in his brief stints in the majors.  However, lets face it, he was blocked at both his positions by Bryant and Rizzo, so he was unlikely to get much playing time ever with the Cubs.  The other guy in the trade was a Class A prospect, Isaac Parades, a shortstop.  He's supposed to be good, but, again, the Cubs have so many infield prospects that it hardly matters.

All in all, I like the deal.  I also like that they struck first to get the best controllable starter available in Quintana.  Things are looking up.

On a Roll

The Cubs are 12-3 since the All-Star Game and back in first place.  I feel pretty good about their chances right now.  The series with Milwaukee has been unexpectedly tight, however.  The Cubs game after the winning 11 of 13 and the Brewers were headed in almost the exactly opposite direction.

These games, though, have been decided by one run in each case with identical scores, 2-1.  The pitching has been terrific on both sides with the exception of Milwaukee's Saturday night starter Guerra, who was just awful.  The Cubs should have put him away early on.  Speaking of Saturday's games, both managers acted as if they were playing the World Series, pulling starters early, multiple pitching changes in the same inning, etc.  The Cubs did manage to come back in the second game on Heyward's home run, but 17 strikeouts is just too much. Baez, in particular, is out of control.  I saw somewhere where he has swung and missed a greater percentage of down and away sliders this year than in his rookie season.

I would imagine if they were going to trade anyone on the 25 man roster, Baez would be the guy, but Maddon says that won't happen, that if they make a deal it will involve minor leaguers.  I don't expect any more blockbusters in any case, maybe a backup catcher to let Caratini develop more in the minor leagues and provide veteran support for Contreras.  Maybe also a reliever, but there too they seem set.  The weak link in the bullpen is Grimm.  The weak link in the starting rotation is Lackey, as Hendricks seems to be back in form since coming off the DL and Arrieta is much improved.

As Advertised

So far that trade looks like gold.  Quintana pitched seven scoreless innings against an Orioles team that can hit even if they cannot pitch at all.  Cubs bats did the rest.  A few more series like that and they may be back on track and headed to the playoffs.

Whew!

The Cubs played a wild one in Baltimore, blowing an 8-0 lead before winning it on an Addison Russell home run in the top of the ninth inning.  All I can say is that after allowing the Orioles to tie the score, they more or less had to win it to save the season.

The Cubs continued some of habits that limited their progress in the first half of the season, primarily the weak starting pitching and occasional bullpen lapses.  This one was on Montgomery, who sailed through three innings before he weakened the second time through the order, was hit hard in the fifth, an inning he was unable to compete.  The wreckage continued with the appearance of Justin Grimm, who was just plain awful.  Grimm is becoming more and more expendable as the first man out of the pen in the middle innings.

The Cubs bats were certainly alive Friday night.  They hit five home runs.  The thing is that was the only way they scored, which is a habit they cannot sustain.  By the way, I've never been to Camden Yards, but I would be curious about its dimensions.  The ball just flies out of there.  No wonder Baltimore usually leads the league in home runs.

On a positive note, the Cubs played great defense, getting several spectacular plays.

Are the Cubs a Bust?

It's hard to say for certain.  Personally, I don't think so.  They will probably win their division.  But they might just fail.  The past two seasons they won fifty games after the All-Star Break, so there is no reason to expect they are not capable of doing so again.  On the other hand, the 2016 and 2015 teams were on a roll before the break, or at least had played well.  This team has not.

The addition of a proven starter in Quintana is a big plus, and again the Cubs have beat the market and, in a way, set it for the other contenders.  There are a few more controllable pitchers out there, but the price is going to be way high for their competitors.  Before the trade, I thought they might have to settle for a rental, but Epstein and Hoyer have proved me wrong.

Just assessing the team's performance thus far,  however, they are going to have to show improvement all over the place to advance.  They are likely correct in thinking the basic core of young talent is where it is at.  However, there is no doubt some players have been disappointing.  Russell for one, although he has historically improved in the second half.   Heyward, although he has not returned to his dismal 2016 level, has not exactly been an inspiration.  Similarly, Schwarber has genuinely been awful.  You can argue they won without both these guys last year, but, in Schwarber's case, someone else was playing every day.  In my mind, Zobrist has been the biggest flop.  He is going to have to pick it up for them to contend, especially if Maddon continues to bat him fourth.

As far as other trade possibilities go, it would not hurt to kick the tires on Avila, who would be a rental, but I would imagine they would not want to give up a first tier prospect in exchange.  Similarly, they might take a shot at the left-handed reliever Hand from the Padres who would be more costly.  Alternatively, they may be content to move Montgomery back to the bullpen and sit tight.

Quintana Trade

First impression is I like it.  Quintana is a very good pitcher.  He will benefit from changing leagues as well as playing with a team that can actually play defense.  The biggest problem so far has been the starting pitching.

As far as giving up top prospects, this is the way contenders and rebuilding teams work.  Jimenez may be a future superstar, but he is 20 years old and playing in Class A.  It's not like they traded a golden boy like Bryant before they brought him up.  Similarly with the pitcher Cease, another A ball prospect.

Five years from now, we might change our minds, but the Cubs need to win the division at a minimum to retain their confidence.  I should also remark that the Cubs got better returns when they dealt off Feldman and Hammel and Samardzjia in their rebuild phase.

Rumors

The Cubs played a pretty lackluster game on July 4 and lost again, this time to the Rays.  Granted the Rays took advantage of some scratchy hits in their big inning, but Lester should have been able to shut the door.  The Cubs could do little against Chris Archer.  I never could understand how they traded him away for Matt Garza six years ago.

On the trade rumor front, rumor has it the Cubs have kicked the tires on the Tigers catcher Avila and pitcher Verlander.  Avila makes some sense if you think you are going to make a run.  He is a rental, but is having a really good year.  Verlander, on the other hand, though once a dominant starter, is having an awful year and may be running out his string, much as Lackey has been, though he is four years younger.  The story is the Tigers want a lot for a 34 year old pitcher with a history of arm trouble and a $28MM annual salary.  I rather hope the Cubs steer clear of that part of the bargain.

The Cubs really need an experienced starting pitcher.  Their sights seem directed toward controllable arms, but these guys, as we have noted before, are either not readily available or come with some risk.  They might be better off looking for a rental if they can find one.  Not sure who is on the market.

My apologies for misreading the schedule up to the All-Star break.  I thought the Cubs closed out the first half with Milwaukee, but it turns out they play only a makeup game on Thursday and finish off with the Pirates.  They still need to sweep these inter-divisional games to prove they are real.

Coming Home

The Cubs managed to limp home Sunday, beating a genuinely inferior Reds team to salvage at least one win in a series they should have swept or at least won.  I was going to opine that should the Cubs not sweep the Reds after spitting the Nats series, they are in trouble.  So they come back for the final homestand before the All-Star break at 41-41, two games behind the Brewers.  I'd like to see them win these six games or at least five of them.  That would, in my mind, mean they were on the way to righting the ship.

Anyway, the Cubs played well on Sunday.  Ian Happ had two home runs and an RBI single.  Happ has been a revelation since his promotion.  He had a stretch when he was striking out and not being patient, no doubt because the league was adjusting to him after his spectacular debut.  Now he seems to have made some adjustments and is really smashing the ball.  Arrieta finally pitched to form, allowing one hit over seven innings.

Speaking of the All-Star break, no Cubs were elected to the game and the only Cub chosen was Wade Davis, who does really deserve it.  Kris Bryant is on the ballot for the final spot.  My guess is he will be selected.  Given the season the team is having, that's OK with me.  They need to get hot over the next few games and then rest up for a final push.  The coming Brewers series is a statement series.  They need to sweep.

A Strange Week

Things began innocently enough on Monday night when the Cubs held on to beat Washington 5-4.  After that, things got a little crazy.  We had already remarked on Montero's unusual outburst after the Tuesday night debacle which saw Arriea continue to pitch badly and the combination of Arrieta and Montero allow seven stolen bases.

Was Montero right to blow up like that publicly?  Clearly not, though he is an emotional guy and has exhibited a certain frankness with the press on other occasions.  He was, incidentally, right about the root cause of the failure to throw out runners.  On the other hand, he hasn't had much success controlling the running game this season no matter who is pitching.  His defensive skills are clearly in decline and he is a bad match for the Cubs pitchers in general, since they do not, as a rule, pay a lot of attention to baserunners.

The whole business about trying to protect the young players from the corrupting influence of such public frankness doesn't hold much water in my mind.  I mean, although athletes are not the brightest bulbs, you can just tell these kids not to try the same trick.  Rather I think it illustrates some dissension on the team already and probably bad blood between Maddon and Montero in the first place.  I may be wrong.  In any case, the Cubs pulled the trigger quickly.  I had thought they would likely let Montero go after the season and might even trade him at the deadline.  Now, however, they will get virtually nothing in return.

Next, of course, came the gratuitous White House visit.  I suppose this goes with the territory when the majority of the team's owners are Neanderthal right-wingers.  Actually, the majority of all sports team ownership falls into this category, so there is nothing new there.  Still, the whole business was an unnecessary distraction which might have caused more of a stir had it not been for the Montero flap.  I was really disappointed to see Maddon giving an inspirational speech to young Republicans that same day.  Say it ain't so, Joe.  Albert Almora became my new favorite Cub for a while when it appeared he was giving  the finger to Trump in a group photo.  Later he denied the intention, but I still like to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Finally, the Cubs did pull out a victory in Thursday's game, coming from behind in the ninth after appearing to blow the game earlier.  Lester pitched well.  I kind of question taking him out for a pinch hitter in the top of the inning.  He was at 90 pitches, but he was coasting along.  As it turns out, Edwards was wild and ineffective, so they almost blew the game, falling behind 4-2.  Only some clutch hitting for a change and the futility of the Nationals bullpen bailed them out.

If you look at the series as a playoff preview, you have to think the Cubs came out of it looking like more than a match for Washington.  After all the drama and the poor starting pitching and fielding a team of rookies and second year players, they wound up with a split.

For the Cubs, even when they get their team back intact, it's all about pitching, which is why they are a .500 team now.  They are going to need to add something at the deadline.  For the Nats, it's all about their bullpen, which is among the worst in baseball right now.

A Sloppy Game

After playing flawless baseball for 8 1/2 innings Monday night, the Cubs turned in a stinker Tuesday. They collected only two hits, committed two errors they were charged with, etc.  They allowed seven stolen bases.  Also, Arrieta stunk once again, walking six, not making it out of the fifth inning.

Just two observations:

Something is wrong with Arrieta, either physically or in his head.  Either way, unless other arms are there to pick up the slack, he is not going to help the team much and he is likely gone in free agency.  He expects a mega-contract.  Unlikely he will get it from the Cubs.

Montero cannot throw out anyone these days, but he is right on one score.  His pitchers, namely Arrieta, don't hold runners on and are slow to the plate.  I get a sense of frustration and perhaps a little discontent on the team right now judging from Montero's post-game interview.  He really let it all out there.  I have a feeling the rest of the team is pretty pissed as well.

In any case, the Cubs are likely to be on-again, off-again until they get some of there regulars back, Zobrist, Heyward, Russell, Hendricks.  Even then, though, they have been mediocre.  These Maddon lineups right now are totally weird and don't make a lot of sense.

The Schwarber Move

I was a little surprised to see the Cubs send Schwarber down to Iowa, but in a way, this might be the best thing for his future.  Schwarber was not having good at-bats at all and you could tell he was frustrated and also just trying to hit the ball as far as he could not matter the situation.  He was only happy when he hit a home run, thinking this would straighten him out when in reality it only reinforced his worst tendencies.  Epstein supposedly told him he was sending him down to find himself again as a hitter, not a slugger.  Good advice, I think.  Hopefully, he will straighten himself out and get back in a couple of weeks.

Meanwhile, the team sent Heyward to the DL and brought up Zagunis as well as, for some unaccountable reason, another worthless relief pitcher, Florio again.  I cannot figure out why they need thirteen pitchers.  Fourteen, however, is a step too far.  Also not exactly a vote of confidence in Arrieta and the rest of the starting staff.

Actually, Arrieta pitched his first decent game in quite a while, coasting to an 11-1 victory behind a barrage of hits and home runs.  A good sign for sure.

Padres Series

Actually the Cubs have won two consecutive series for the first time in a while.  Progress of a sort.  They should have won Wednesday afternoon, but, except for the Happ home run, they did nothing offensively.  The Padres were not much better, but they collected the winning run on a bases-loaded walk that turned out to be the difference.

The Cubs have been fielding a cobbled together lineup lately what with injuries to Zobrist, Heyward, and Schwarber.  Also a cobbled together rotation with Hendricks on the shelf.  So I suppose you might say when these guys are all back healthy and Bryant starts hitting again, things are going to get better.  However, all these guys were healthy most of the year and they are still a team that is only one game over .500.

Although hitting has been an issue all season long, the Cubs will probably improve on that account in the second half.  Pitching is where they need to add at the trade deadline and that is the area I think they will address.  They will be in the market for another starting pitcher for certain and possibly a left-handed reliever if Montgomery stays in the rotation, which I think he should.  I was at the game Tuesday night and I have to say his performance was impressive.  Ground ball after ground ball.  Butler has been adequate as a starter, but just that.

The problem the team is going to have at the deadline is finding the right guy.  Everybody wants to pick up that controllable arm.  However, not only is the price likely to be high to get that piece, but the arms in that category that are likely to be available are by no means sure things.  Cole and Archer and Gray come to mind, but they all look like possible reclamation projects in some sense.  These players would have made sense when the Cubs were building and they had nothing to lose, but going for the player who puts them back in the Series is another matter.

Plus, by all accounts, the front office is not at all willing to trade any of the young players currently on the major league roster.  Rightly so, I think.  They are more likely to want to create a package that features Candelario and a couple of AAA and AA prospects.  They certainly have these guys to spare, but that sort of combination is probably only going to get you a rental from a team that has fallen from contention.

The trouble there is that in the AL, you can only make a case for three teams being hopelessly out of it, Detroit, Oakland, and the White Sox.  In the NL, the opposite is the case and you can only make a case for six teams in serious contention,  The Nationals are running away with the East, three teams are playing well in the West, namely, LA, Colorado, and Arizona.  The Central Division is mired in mediocrity, but you have to make some really dire assumptions to conclude the Cubs will not ultimately pull away.

Ideally, the Cubs could match up with the Rangers and acquire Yu Darvish for the balance of the season,  However, the Rangers, mediocre as they have been and are likely to remain, despite being lapped by the Astros, are only two games out of the Wild Card race now.  Plus they have the money to hold onto Darvish in the free agent if they want to do so.  Should be interesting.

Nothing Different

After playing a really encouraging game Friday night, where they built big innings, came though with men on base, etc., the Cubs reverted Saturday night to their old ways.  Three runs scored, all on home runs.

In addition, Arrieta pitched badly again.  This time he blamed the humidity.  Last time it was a cut on his finger.  Maybe.  However, Arrieta has pitched the same game at least every other time he has started since last August.  Should he survive the first inning relatively unscathed, he will sail along until the fifth or sixth when he will lose command and blow the game.  This time it was the fifth.  Time to be honest here.  Something is wrong and it doesn't seem to be improving.

Hot and Cold Again

The Cubs took off on the road trip having played 62 games.  So they had 100 to go and realistically, at least in normal years, a team needs to win at least 90 games to make the playoffs.  That means playing roughly .600 baseball through the balance of the season.  Losing two of three to the Mets doesn't do much to convince anyone they can do so.  Perhaps, in a really weak division, they can squeak in regardless, but they certainly do not look like a true contender at this stage of the season.

After being shut down by deGrom in the first game of the series, the Cubs broke out with a 14-3 win in the second.  Wednesday night they just lost a game that was close until the eighth inning, but one of which they had control throughout.  Montgomery pitched well through five innings.  If the Cubs had not performed so poorly in the field behind him, he might well have left with a 4-1 lead.  This time it was the bullpen that fell apart late.

However, there is just no consistency here and that is the most troubling part of it.  It seems the team can only score via the home run.  They hit  three in the third game, including a monstrous shot by Schwarber.  They all enjoyed it very much, yucking it up in the dugout and talking glowingly about those dingers and how they felt.  Be that as it may, they lost.  And they keep losing games they should have won.  The offense shut down after the fourth inning.  Maybe this team is a little too relaxed, a little too confident it will find its mojo.  Maybe it is time for a little more desperation.

Zobrist!

Maybe someone can explain why Ben Zobrist, who has like three hits in the last month and is batting forty points south of the Mendoza line during that stretch, is batting cleanup.  Other than that he is a Maddon favorite and batting a guy like that fourth is a favorite Maddon quirk.

So first inning, men on second and third, one out.  Zobrist strikes out.  Rally over.

Actually, like many others, I have never been a fan of Zobrist batting fourth even when he was playing well.  Last year, batting behind Fowler, Bryant, and Rizzo, players who combined to a nearly .400 OBP, Zobrist drove in 76 runs.  Compare that to Russell, who usually hit fifth and had nearly 100 RBI.

Hot and Cold

After sweeping the Cardinals, the Cubs ran their streak to five, winning the first two games against Miami.  Since then they have played badly, losing the next three.  Friday's game was kind of pathetic.  The Cubs walked nine times, added two hit batsmen, saw 180 pitches and wound up scoring only three runs.  Even Maddon had to acknowledge that feat was nearly impossible.

What's wrong, I think, is as much mental as physical.  The only guys really paying attention are Bryant and Rizzo, sometimes Happ.  The Cubs will roll up the pitch count with patient at-bats, but as soon as they have the pitcher on the ropes they shift into swing mode.  So it looks like they only score now via the home run, even though their patience creates opportunities to build innings.

A good example of this trend was the ninth inning Friday.  After Schwarber struck out trying to hit a three-run homer with nobody on base, the Rockies closer got into a wild streak.  Happ, Bryant, and Rizzo drew consecutive bases-on-balls.  So with one out and the bases loaded, after the Rockies pitcher has thrown nothing even remotely near the strike zone, what does the cleanup hitter Ben Zobrist do?  Of course, he swings at the first pitch and pops out to shallow left field.  What are these guys thinking, I wonder.

The Sweep

The Cubs played a great series against St. Louis this weekend at home, winning all three games, coming from behind in all three as well.  In addition, these are the sort of games that really good teams win, so hopefully they are back fro real this time.

They got great starts from Lackey and Lester in the first two and survived a somewhat shaky performance from Hendricks in the final game.  All in all, a major step forward.  Incidentally, I really like what I have seen of Ian Happ.  He went through at rough patch during the West Coast trip, but he seems to have adjusted.  The two home runs Sunday night were really big.  I also rather agree with Maddon that besides the grand slam Saturday from Schwarber, more important for his return to form were the three walks today.

The Cubs have a real chance to assert themselves on this homestand.  The Marlins, a pretty mediocre outfit, come in next, followed by the Rockies, a team that seems to be playing way over its head.  They go on the road after that against some pretty weak opponents until they finish off June against Washington.

Present Woes

It's never easy to repeat as champions, but that West Coast trip was abominable.  Especially on the heels of a 7-2 homestand.  I mean, ten walks and two hit-batsmen and you score only two runs?  Nine runs in six games, almost all of them on home runs?  Something's wrong here.

I suppose one must realize this is not the team that won the Series last year.  Theoretically, they should be pretty good.  Actually they aren't.  At the end of the season, the Cubs decided to pass on four free agents who were keys to their success in 2017, namely, Fowler, Wood, Chapman, and Hammel.  In addition, Ross retired.  I cannot second guess any of those choices.  They were the right decisions.  Actually, the Cubs correctly did not expect Travis Wood or Jason Hammel to duplicate their 2017 form and they have not.  They probably expected Fowler to have a couple of more good years, but they were unwilling to give him the lengthy contract he desired.  In reality, Fowler has been pretty mediocre for the Cards.  They were definitely not going to pay Chapman the money he expected.

The problem has been that these cogs in the Cubs machine have not been replaced.  Hammel, in particular, was a fifteen game winner as essentially the #5 starter.  The truth is the Cubs have no #5 starter right now.  Anderson was pretty bad before he got hurt.  Butler does not appear to the the answer.  Montgomery, who was the heir apparent before Anderson was acquired, may be the answer here.  Given the struggles and inconsistencies of the remainder of the rotation, they need to find a solution quickly.  The only real fix the off-season repaired was Davis in the closer role.

As far as the leadoff spot is concerned, it really is time to call the Schwarber experiment quits.  Time honestly to drop this kid down a lot further in the order than second as well.  Zobrist or Heyward are better choices now depending on the matchups.  I honestly expect the Cubs to move some minor leaguers and young talent at the deadline for pitching, either of the rental or controllable variety, especially as what passes for genuine pitching prospects on the farm is quite a ways away.

As far as high level talent goes, I hope they hold onto Happ.  He looks like a complete player and a star in the making.  Candelario, for one, is effectively blocked for years to come, so he is probably expendable.

This Cardinals series is going to tell a lot.

Shutout in LA

After a successful 7-2 homestand, I rather thought the Cubs were going to go on a roll.  Not to be.  The team looks pretty down and has failed to score a single run thus far in LA.  The loss dropped the Cubs back to half a game behind the Brewers into a virtual tie with the Cardinals for second place.

After the game, Maddon reiterated his opinion the team was playing good ball, but they were just not hitting.  I cannot really understand how you can think you are playing well when you haven't scored a run for eighteen innings, nor, as a matter of fact, even threatened to score a run.  We remarked last week that although the team scored a lot of runs at Wrigley Field, most of them were via the home run.  Right now, the Cubs are not working at-bats, not building innings, and striking out a lot.  Maddon has finally dropped Schwarber from the leadoff spot and has evidently decided to use him as a platoon player for a while.  That's fine, but how can you continue to hit this guy second when he is batting like .170 and striking out every other time at the plate.  Maddon has also started playing Montero more often and has dropped Russell down in the lineup.  He is playing Happ every day and the rookie continues to impress.  Certainly these are defensible moves, but so far they haven't yielded much in the way of results.

I still think the real Achilles heel of this year's team is starting pitching.  The Cubs have two pitchers in the rotation who have proved thus far to be unreliable and rather unproductive. three if you count the injured Anderson.  These two are Lackey and Arrieta.  One expected Lackey to show signs of age and rust.  Arrieta, however, was thought to be a rock.  I'm beginning to wonder whether Arrieta is ever going to return to form.  His problem now is fairly fundamental.  Arrieta is a power pitcher who relies on hard stuff to set up all his sequences.  He has lost 2 or 3 mph on his fastball.  When you throw 95 or 96 mph up in the zone, batters swing and miss.  When you throw 92 or 93, they hit home runs.  Arrieta is on a pace to give up twice as many home runs as has become his norm.  The team can probably muddle through with this level of performance.  They are not going to give up on him for sure.  But I daresay that big payday is receding into the distance, at least from the Cubs point of view.

Home Stand So Far

So far, so good on the home stand, 5-2.  The Cubs have swept the Reds, split with the Brewers in a rain-shortened series, and split the first two with the Giants.  The Cubs have been as good as their starting pitching by and large.  Butler was awful in his start last Friday.  Lackey was not exactly scintillating in a windy night game loss to San Francisco Monday night.

Hendricks and Lester have been solid through the latest round.  Arrieta was similarly solid in his last start, but, in my mind, he has a ways to go to prove himself the top gun he once was.  Butler gets another shot on Thursday.  Just reading the tea leaves here, one wonders if that is his final audition.  Bringing up Rosscup means the Cubs have three lefties in the pen.  That might set the stage for Montgomery to move into the rotation should Butler fail.

The offense has picked up the pace lately.  However, one item of concern is they are scoring a lot of their runs via the home run.  Ten of the last eleven runs they have scored are the result of home runs, including all of the runs scored in the Giants series thus far.  Nothing wrong with a power surge for a team with a lot of power hitters, but still not really building innings the way they did last season.

Are Maddon and Arrieta Kidding Themselves?

After Sunday's game, a 5-0 loss to the Cards, Joe Maddon came out and suggested this was Arrieta's best start of the year.  He and Arrieta agreed the pitcher threw strikes and had good stuff and so on.  The fact is, however, that Arrieta made two mistakes that wound up in the seats and accounted for four runs.  The fact also remains that Arrieta's fastball was clocking in at 92 pr 93 mph.  This is 2 mph slower than his salad days of 2015 an 2016.  Actually Arrieta was lights out brilliant through 2015 and half way into 2016.  Since then, he has been inconsistent and not quite right.  I hope these guys are right and that he can turn it around.  Otherwise, the dominant starting pitching of that championship season just isn't there across the board and the team is in trouble insofar as repeating their superior run of 2016.

After Friday's win, I thought they might be poised to take off, at least to win the series.  Obviously, that did not happen.  The Cubs return home Tuesday and play ten home games against mediocre teams, the Reds, the Brewers, and the struggling Giants.  If we are to see even a repeat of the division championship this season, they need to get healthy, start hitting, and win seven or eight of these contests.

Just as an aside, Ian Happ's debut has been pretty impressive.  They will have a hard time sending him down.  Maybe also a hard time finding regular playing time once Heyward comes off the DL  Still, he is possibly a better fit than Candelario, who has not hit very well and who is eternally blocked at his two positions of third and first base by Bryant and Rizzo.

Butler Steps Up

As did Hendricks and Lackey in the final two games in Denver.  Arrieta, on the other hand, has stepped back, throwing another really mediocre outing in the first game of the series.  Mediocre has generally described the Cubs performance of late.  Perhaps Friday's game is a harbinger of good things to come.

Friday's game belonged to two players, Butler and Contreras.  Butler looked very good.  I hadn't realized he threw that hard.  Early in the game, he was consistently up around 95 or 96 mph.  Very sharp.  One game does not make him a fixture in the rotation, but he has been very strong through spring training and in his starts at Iowa, so there is reason to hope.  Just subtracting Anderson from the mix is progress.

The Cubs were again without some of their best players in Friday's lineup, this time not be design.  Russell was still suffering from a sore shoulder that impeded his throwing, Heyward remained on the DL, Bryant was a late scratch with a stomach ache, and Jay played only one or two innings before leaving with back problems.  With all this going on, LaStella stepped up with a double and a home run after replacing Jay.

Contreras, though, was the big star, knocking out two home runs and picking Fowler off first base to end a seventh inning Cardinals rally.  Granted he almost threw away the game after a dropped third strike in the ninth, but he was still the man responsible, in the main, for the win.

Lets hope this is the beginning of a winning streak.

Rain Delay

The Cubs were fortunate to get rained out last night even though it entails playing a double-header today.  Apparently, they got into Denver at 5 AM after an excruciating 18 inning loss to the Yankees, so things were unlikely to go well for them that night.

About the Cubs woes, everyone talks about pitching and bullpen issues.  We discussed some of this is earlier blog posts.  Actually, after some early season issues, the bullpen has done pretty well despite the necessity of overuse.  The starters continue to be a problem.  Really going back to the tail end of last season, the only absolutely reliable starters have been Lester and Hendricks.  Arrieta has performed well every other start on the whole.  It may be presumed he will eventually achieve the consistency he has shown in the past.  As for Lackey, I'm not convinced.  Lets face it, the guy is getting old and there may not be much left in the tank.  As for  Anderson, well, that has been a disaster.  Maybe his replacement, likely Montgomery or Butler, can correct this issue.  Otherwise the team is going to have to make a trade at the deadline, potentially giving up a talented farmhand.

One of the real problems most of the press hasn't dwelt upon is the hitting.  They are still scoring runs at a pretty high average, but the real concern I have is they are just not grinding out at-bats and building innings as they did last season.  Maybe it is the weather, but too many of the stars have been hot and cold, pretty much everyone except Bryant and Heyward among the regulars.  Oddly enough, many of the substitutes have contributed more consistently, Jay, Almora, Montero.

Perhaps warmer weather will provide an upswing, but I think a real change of approach is needed, a return to the basics that made them such a great team in the past.  Maddon might want to rethink that batting order as well.  I've always thought Schwarber was not the best choice for leadoff hitter. He did OK early in the season, but people forget that even though his debut seasons have been spectacular, he still has only about three or four months of major league experience.  The Cubs clearly miss Fowler in that spot.  Maybe they should try Heyward, who has batted first before.

Some of these issues were prominently displayed in the 18 inning loss.  The Cubs were swinging for the fences all night long.  The one inning where they payed attention, the ninth, they tied the game with three runs against Chapman.  After that, they had many chances in extra innings, but they came up short, often because they had to use a pitcher to pinch hit because they had no position players.  They should think about using the additional double header callup for a hitter today.

Looking at today's lineup, it looks like Schwarber is back batting first.  Some subs are out there at least for Game 1, Montero, LaStella, Almora.  I am not the first to note this, but Baez should never bat in front of the pitcher.  It just changes his whole psychology. Better ninth or sixth.