Apparently the Cubs are about to sign backup catcher David Ross to a two year deal. This one is a little hard to figure. Ross was a pretty decent backup for several seasons with Atlanta, but his last two years with the Red Sox were pretty bad and he has the reputation of being a mediocre defender, though he is thought to be a good pitch framer. Aside from being Jon Lester's favorite receiver and a perceived veteran influence, he does not add a whole lot.
The acquisition of Ross probably spells the end of Welington Castillo's career with the Cubs. Kind of a shame unless they get something good in return. The move is also somewhat puzzling in that the Cubs also claimed Ryan Lavarnway off waivers from Boston. Lavarnway's career in Boston never quite took off, but he can hit, at least in the minor leagues.
Friday, December 19, 2014
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Ruggiano Trade
The Cubs traded reserve outfielder Justin Ruggiano to the Mariners for a AA relief pitcher named Matt Brazis. Brazis has good minor league numbers, but is not exactly a major acquisition. Ruggiano, on the other hand, played well last year, at least against left-handed pitching, although he was hurt a lot. I think he missed about two months altogether.
The Cubs seem to be on an endless quest to find a right-handed hitting platoon player to match with a fairly talented left-handed hitter, in this case, Chris Coghlan. These right-handed platoon guys are a dime a dozen, but they rarely work out that well, probably because the expectations are really high and they tend to get far fewer plate appearances than their left-handed counterparts. So, as a consequence, it is harder to keep them fresh, etc.
Anyway, the latest guy mentioned is Jonny Gomes. His numbers are significantly inferior to Ruggiano's, but he apparently has some intangibles the Cubs like. Personally, I hope they take a pass on this guy. He strikes out a lot and he is not a very good defender and he is strictly a platoon player.
Another outfielder mentioned on the rumor mill is Colby Rasmus. That's another one I don't particularly get. He is a free agent coming off a bad year. He has had some decent years, but, again, he strikes out a humungous number of times. Also, since the Cubs want some sort of mentoring veteran presence, it is hard to see Rasmus filling the bill here. By all accounts he was clubhouse poison in St. Louis, or at least La Russa hated his guts there and pretty much ran him out of town.
The Cubs seem to be on an endless quest to find a right-handed hitting platoon player to match with a fairly talented left-handed hitter, in this case, Chris Coghlan. These right-handed platoon guys are a dime a dozen, but they rarely work out that well, probably because the expectations are really high and they tend to get far fewer plate appearances than their left-handed counterparts. So, as a consequence, it is harder to keep them fresh, etc.
Anyway, the latest guy mentioned is Jonny Gomes. His numbers are significantly inferior to Ruggiano's, but he apparently has some intangibles the Cubs like. Personally, I hope they take a pass on this guy. He strikes out a lot and he is not a very good defender and he is strictly a platoon player.
Another outfielder mentioned on the rumor mill is Colby Rasmus. That's another one I don't particularly get. He is a free agent coming off a bad year. He has had some decent years, but, again, he strikes out a humungous number of times. Also, since the Cubs want some sort of mentoring veteran presence, it is hard to see Rasmus filling the bill here. By all accounts he was clubhouse poison in St. Louis, or at least La Russa hated his guts there and pretty much ran him out of town.
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
Lester Signs
Looks like Lester is signing with the Cubs. Red Sox seem to be low bidder and Giants the highest, but Lester picked the Cubs anyway, six years, $155MM. Big money, but it proves the new regime is finally getting serious about contending. Good news.
The Cubs also picked up Montero to catch for a couple of low profile minor league players. Montero is a good defensive catcher who can hit right-handed pitching reasonably well and is pretty expensive. The Cubs are shopping Castillo, though I hope they hold on to him as a backup/platoon.
The Cubs also picked up Montero to catch for a couple of low profile minor league players. Montero is a good defensive catcher who can hit right-handed pitching reasonably well and is pretty expensive. The Cubs are shopping Castillo, though I hope they hold on to him as a backup/platoon.
Monday, December 8, 2014
Trade Talk
Still no word on the Lester front, though it is said a decision is immanent. The Cubs did sign Jason Hammel to a multi-year deal. This is not a big deal, though Hammel will help solidify the middle of the rotation, which now consists, I guess, of Arrieta, Hendricks, Wada, and Hammel. Hammel pitched better than his record indicates in his two month stint with the Athletics. I kind of thought the Cubs would make a bigger play for Masterson since he has a bigger upside.
Supposedly the Cubs are negotiating to acquire Miguel Montero from the Diamondbacks. This makes some sense. Montero is a good defensive catcher who hits righties well. A platoon with Castillo would make a formidable combination, or at least an improvement over last year.
Epstein and Hoyer are at least talking a good game. They want to contend for the division. They are looking for left-handed batters who can get on base as well as starting pitchers.
On the other side of town, the White Sox are making a bit of a splash. They have rented Jeff Samardzija for next to nothing in exchange. Also picked up the Yankees closer David Robertson. Not a big fan of multi-year big money contracts to relief pitchers, although Robertson is good.
Supposedly the Cubs are negotiating to acquire Miguel Montero from the Diamondbacks. This makes some sense. Montero is a good defensive catcher who hits righties well. A platoon with Castillo would make a formidable combination, or at least an improvement over last year.
Epstein and Hoyer are at least talking a good game. They want to contend for the division. They are looking for left-handed batters who can get on base as well as starting pitchers.
On the other side of town, the White Sox are making a bit of a splash. They have rented Jeff Samardzija for next to nothing in exchange. Also picked up the Yankees closer David Robertson. Not a big fan of multi-year big money contracts to relief pitchers, although Robertson is good.
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Holding Pattern
Looks like things are in a bit of a lull on the Lester front. Cubs, Red Sox, Giants, and now Dodgers are the main contenders. If the Cubs fail, I can see them making a move on trading for Hamels, but not going hard after the other top tier free agents like Scherzer and Shields. For one thing, the Cubs are not likely to want to give up a draft choice.
I was a little surprised to see the Cubs non-tender Wesley Wright, who was OK in the bullpen last year and is a pretty consistent reliever. Also only 29. Backup catcher Baker, not so much. Kind of surprised they tendered Travis Wood. He had a down year in 2014, though if you look at most of his peripherals, he was pretty much the same guy he was in 2013 when he had an up year. Don't know what to make of the move. Maybe he is trade bait or maybe he is headed for the bullpen, especially with Wright gone.
I was a little surprised to see the Cubs non-tender Wesley Wright, who was OK in the bullpen last year and is a pretty consistent reliever. Also only 29. Backup catcher Baker, not so much. Kind of surprised they tendered Travis Wood. He had a down year in 2014, though if you look at most of his peripherals, he was pretty much the same guy he was in 2013 when he had an up year. Don't know what to make of the move. Maybe he is trade bait or maybe he is headed for the bullpen, especially with Wright gone.
Monday, November 17, 2014
Martin Gets Away
Word is that Russell Martin has signed a five-year deal with Toronto for $82MM. This kind of underlines how tough it is to land a big-time free agent in today's market, especially when you are dealing with a scarce commodity like a good defensive catcher who can hit and get on base. Martin would have been a pretty good fit for the Cubs, but that's a hefty price tag for a 32 year old catcher.
The story is the Blue Jays were the only suitor to offer five years, which makes him 37 in the final year of the contract. Those last two years are potential problems, especially for an NL team that cannot rest him in a DH role. I'm not that broken up about the result. Castillo is still a decent catcher. The Cubs need to focus on finding a backup.
No other notable hot stove stuff that has not already been published. The Cubs are still considered major contenders for Jon Lester and have added Justin Masterson into the mix as a one or two year gamble. Masterson could come back big next year if he is healthy, but I still think the Cubs need to land a major talent like Lester to be competitive.
I haven't seen too much in the way of reasonable scenarios for Hamels. The Phillies seem to want three top-tier prospects, two being major league ready. I doubt the Cubs, having spent three years building up a cadre of prospects, are going to go for this kind of deal. I could see them moving Baez in this kind of trade, but I should think the rest of the package would include guys of lesser merit or guys who are blocked like Vogelbach.
The trade of Vizcaino to the Braves for 2B prospect La Stella is a bit of a puzzler given the Cubs apparent surfeit of middle infielders. From the news, the Cubs have always liked LaStella, a high OBP guy who hits for average and does not strike out much. In my mind, this is a winning kind of player at this position, a left-handed bat as well. The thing is you do not get a guy like that as a reserve player, so the move has led to the inevitable speculation that somebody in the Baez, Russell, Castro mix is going to be moved, likely Castro or Baez.
For my money Baez is the more valuable trade bait to get a front line pitcher. I have always been critical of Castro's sometimes sloppy play and dumb habits at the plate, but last year he did seem to develop into a more disciplined player. However, he has likely reached a plateau in his abilities and everybody knows it. Baez, on the other hand, is perceived to have a substantially higher potential. However, Baez is also a strikeout machine who has no idea how to play baseball. At best, his development will likely require years of tutelage to produce a player who will hit a lot of home runs, never get on base, and still strikeout at an unacceptable level.
The story is the Blue Jays were the only suitor to offer five years, which makes him 37 in the final year of the contract. Those last two years are potential problems, especially for an NL team that cannot rest him in a DH role. I'm not that broken up about the result. Castillo is still a decent catcher. The Cubs need to focus on finding a backup.
No other notable hot stove stuff that has not already been published. The Cubs are still considered major contenders for Jon Lester and have added Justin Masterson into the mix as a one or two year gamble. Masterson could come back big next year if he is healthy, but I still think the Cubs need to land a major talent like Lester to be competitive.
I haven't seen too much in the way of reasonable scenarios for Hamels. The Phillies seem to want three top-tier prospects, two being major league ready. I doubt the Cubs, having spent three years building up a cadre of prospects, are going to go for this kind of deal. I could see them moving Baez in this kind of trade, but I should think the rest of the package would include guys of lesser merit or guys who are blocked like Vogelbach.
The trade of Vizcaino to the Braves for 2B prospect La Stella is a bit of a puzzler given the Cubs apparent surfeit of middle infielders. From the news, the Cubs have always liked LaStella, a high OBP guy who hits for average and does not strike out much. In my mind, this is a winning kind of player at this position, a left-handed bat as well. The thing is you do not get a guy like that as a reserve player, so the move has led to the inevitable speculation that somebody in the Baez, Russell, Castro mix is going to be moved, likely Castro or Baez.
For my money Baez is the more valuable trade bait to get a front line pitcher. I have always been critical of Castro's sometimes sloppy play and dumb habits at the plate, but last year he did seem to develop into a more disciplined player. However, he has likely reached a plateau in his abilities and everybody knows it. Baez, on the other hand, is perceived to have a substantially higher potential. However, Baez is also a strikeout machine who has no idea how to play baseball. At best, his development will likely require years of tutelage to produce a player who will hit a lot of home runs, never get on base, and still strikeout at an unacceptable level.
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Rumors
The Cubs are linked to a variety of interesting players, especially among the free agents, in the wake of the imminent arrival of several of their best prospects and the hiring of a real major league manager in Joe Maddon.
Obviously the pitching is the biggest need and the most glamorous position in terms of free agents and premier players who might be available for trade. Pitching is the strength of the current free agent class in any case, as this year's crop is notably weak in hitters and position players.
The Cubs have been prominently linked to Jon Lester who has some history with Epstein from his Boston days and will also not cost the Cubs a draft pick. Lester is really good, but he will not be cheap, ending up somewhere between $20 and $25MM per year in at least a four year deal.
Max Scherzer is also prominently mentioned, as well as James Shields. These guys are good, though I think Shields is not the dominant starter he was in 2013. Also, each of these guys is going to cost Lester money or more as well as a draft choice. In the Cubs case, this is a second round choice as they have been so bad their first round pick is protected I tend to think the Cubs will go for Lester and forget the other two, who are likely to sign elsewhere in any case.
An intriguing possibility is that the Cubs are reported to be talking to the Phillies about Cole Hamels. Hamels is in the same class of pitcher as Lester and would be a good acquisition. He has four years and $96MM left on his contract with Philadelphia, which is less than Lester would cost. He would, however, cost the Cubs at least one of their more prized prospects. The Cubs claimed Hamels on waivers last season, but the teams were unable to work out the terms of a trade. I, for one, would not be unhappy to see Baez dealt as the centerpiece of this trade even though he might turn out to be a star player. The Cubs are rich in infield prospects and personally I do not think a guy who strikes out at the rate Baez does and possesses no plate discipline whatsoever is going to amount nearly as much as the hype projects him to become.
The Cubs might be able to acquire Hamels more cheaply depending on how anxious the Phils are to dump salary and how long term their plans are. The Cubs have a number of guys like Vogelbach, for example, who are a little further away from the majors and who may be blocked by current regulars or nearer term prospects.
The other big rumor is the Cubs are making a pitch for the Pirates catcher Russell Martin. This makes some sense. Martin is a really good defensive catcher who can hit and who gets on base a lot. I've always like Welington Castillo, but he had a down year last season and he may not be the player the Cubs have hoped to see. On the other hand, he had to battle through some injuries last year, so, should the Cubs fail to land Martin, they could still go into next season with Castillo behind the plate provided they acquire a veteran backup.
Another free agent rumor has the Cubs making a play for David Robertson, the Yankees closer. Robertson is pretty good, but I tend to discount this one. For one thing, Robertson has a qualifying offer and the Cubs are just not going to give away that many draft picks under the current regime. For another thing, the Cubs bullpen is pretty well stocked right now. Also, free agent relievers are not the best bet in terms of the probability of success. The Cubs principal bullpen need right now is a dominant lefty. If they want to go into the market for expensive bullpen help, Andrew Miller is the guy they should target.
Obviously the pitching is the biggest need and the most glamorous position in terms of free agents and premier players who might be available for trade. Pitching is the strength of the current free agent class in any case, as this year's crop is notably weak in hitters and position players.
The Cubs have been prominently linked to Jon Lester who has some history with Epstein from his Boston days and will also not cost the Cubs a draft pick. Lester is really good, but he will not be cheap, ending up somewhere between $20 and $25MM per year in at least a four year deal.
Max Scherzer is also prominently mentioned, as well as James Shields. These guys are good, though I think Shields is not the dominant starter he was in 2013. Also, each of these guys is going to cost Lester money or more as well as a draft choice. In the Cubs case, this is a second round choice as they have been so bad their first round pick is protected I tend to think the Cubs will go for Lester and forget the other two, who are likely to sign elsewhere in any case.
An intriguing possibility is that the Cubs are reported to be talking to the Phillies about Cole Hamels. Hamels is in the same class of pitcher as Lester and would be a good acquisition. He has four years and $96MM left on his contract with Philadelphia, which is less than Lester would cost. He would, however, cost the Cubs at least one of their more prized prospects. The Cubs claimed Hamels on waivers last season, but the teams were unable to work out the terms of a trade. I, for one, would not be unhappy to see Baez dealt as the centerpiece of this trade even though he might turn out to be a star player. The Cubs are rich in infield prospects and personally I do not think a guy who strikes out at the rate Baez does and possesses no plate discipline whatsoever is going to amount nearly as much as the hype projects him to become.
The Cubs might be able to acquire Hamels more cheaply depending on how anxious the Phils are to dump salary and how long term their plans are. The Cubs have a number of guys like Vogelbach, for example, who are a little further away from the majors and who may be blocked by current regulars or nearer term prospects.
The other big rumor is the Cubs are making a pitch for the Pirates catcher Russell Martin. This makes some sense. Martin is a really good defensive catcher who can hit and who gets on base a lot. I've always like Welington Castillo, but he had a down year last season and he may not be the player the Cubs have hoped to see. On the other hand, he had to battle through some injuries last year, so, should the Cubs fail to land Martin, they could still go into next season with Castillo behind the plate provided they acquire a veteran backup.
Another free agent rumor has the Cubs making a play for David Robertson, the Yankees closer. Robertson is pretty good, but I tend to discount this one. For one thing, Robertson has a qualifying offer and the Cubs are just not going to give away that many draft picks under the current regime. For another thing, the Cubs bullpen is pretty well stocked right now. Also, free agent relievers are not the best bet in terms of the probability of success. The Cubs principal bullpen need right now is a dominant lefty. If they want to go into the market for expensive bullpen help, Andrew Miller is the guy they should target.
Monday, November 3, 2014
Maddon
Maddon seems like an interesting guy and, for the first time in a long while, looks as if he has the skill set and personality to manage the Cubs successfully. Lets hope things pan out. I especially like his upbeat predictions. Long past time to think like a winner or a contender instead of just resigning oneself to another awful season.
On a side note, I like the signing of Wada. Wada pitched very well after the Cubs brought him up and put him in the rotation. He was kind of a five or six inning pitcher, but I think that was because they were easing him back from his surgery more than anything else.
I'm hoping the Cubs make a big play for Lester who, to my mind, is the best available free agent starter. I don't like Peavy despite his late season revival with the Giants. The Giants play in a big ballpark and Wrigley isn't. I kind of think Peavy is done as a big game pitcher. I also was not all that impressed with Shields through the playoffs and World Series. If the Cubs get Lester, they can afford to go for a lesser talent looking to rebuild value, someone like Masterson, for example, or they could bring back Hammel, who did not pitch that badly for the A's down the stretch after a rough start.
On a side note, I like the signing of Wada. Wada pitched very well after the Cubs brought him up and put him in the rotation. He was kind of a five or six inning pitcher, but I think that was because they were easing him back from his surgery more than anything else.
I'm hoping the Cubs make a big play for Lester who, to my mind, is the best available free agent starter. I don't like Peavy despite his late season revival with the Giants. The Giants play in a big ballpark and Wrigley isn't. I kind of think Peavy is done as a big game pitcher. I also was not all that impressed with Shields through the playoffs and World Series. If the Cubs get Lester, they can afford to go for a lesser talent looking to rebuild value, someone like Masterson, for example, or they could bring back Hammel, who did not pitch that badly for the A's down the stretch after a rough start.
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
World Series
I have to say that for two teams I had relatively little attachment to and one, the Royals, for which I had little respect, this was quite an exciting Series. The seventh game was one of the most tense and hotly contested seventh games I have seen. I rooted for the Giants, of course. I'm a National League fan and, besides, I can never bring myself to root for a team from Missouri, no matter how gutsy they are.
As far as the MVP goes, Bumgarner is the man. I thought he would only go two or three of the middle innings, but he managed five. A couple of observations, one being the Royals do not hit lefties well. I mean, Bumgarner is an ace, but they were lost against Affeldt as well. I don't know how they fared against left-handed pitching during the season, but they sure came up empty in October. The other observation is I hope the Giants haven't ruined Bumgarner for the future. He threw a lot of innings this year and a lot of pitches in the post-season for a young pitcher.
Finally, it looks like the Cubs have pulled the trigger on Joe Maddon, which is good news if it pans out, which it better do since you cannot strike out on big name guys two years in a row and expect anybody to want to manage for you in the future, including Rick Renteria.
As far as the MVP goes, Bumgarner is the man. I thought he would only go two or three of the middle innings, but he managed five. A couple of observations, one being the Royals do not hit lefties well. I mean, Bumgarner is an ace, but they were lost against Affeldt as well. I don't know how they fared against left-handed pitching during the season, but they sure came up empty in October. The other observation is I hope the Giants haven't ruined Bumgarner for the future. He threw a lot of innings this year and a lot of pitches in the post-season for a young pitcher.
Finally, it looks like the Cubs have pulled the trigger on Joe Maddon, which is good news if it pans out, which it better do since you cannot strike out on big name guys two years in a row and expect anybody to want to manage for you in the future, including Rick Renteria.
Friday, October 24, 2014
Joe Maddon
Word is that after a surprise discovery that he could opt out of his contract with the Rays if their GM left, Joe Maddon did just that. Word is also that the Cubs are front runners to sign him If the Cubs think they are real contenders next year, it is time to hire a real manager, which Maddon really is. They should jump on this.
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Playoff Baseball
And other stuff, I guess. I've enjoyed the playoffs as much as is humanly possible. Am I the only one who cannot stand the TV coverage, which is generally ill-informed at best. And, geez, the length of the games! I'll tell you what will improve the situation with these interminable games. Cut the damn commercials. I mean, in the regular season there is a substantial commercial break between innings, but in the post-season it is twice as long. There is already a natural break of a couple of minutes between innings, which, of course, adds thirty minutes or so to the game. In the playoffs, this seems to be doubled or more. That's nearly ninety minutes of inaction right there.
As far as the games themselves, there were quite a few exciting games. I cannot say all the teams were exciting. Try as I might, although the Royals are a Cinderella story, I can't say they are a good team or they really belong. I expect the Giants to win the Series rather easily. The Giants really are a very good, solid, team. Also, it was really good to see the Cards go down. They play good ball, but I just don't like them.
I saw an interesting piece recently that discussed the topic of the effect of the strike zone on run production. The author's premise is that, over recent years, umpires have started calling more low strikes, actually lowering the strike zone below the knees, and narrowing the zone as it affects the corners. This has shifted the advantage to pitching with obvious results. He makes a convincing argument that explains at least some of the lack of production. I haven't really noticed this watching games, though I will say that if the camera illustrations on TV of balls and strikes are accurate, the umpires are, in general, highly inconsistent and prone to error.
Recently there was a long exchange on the Cubs MLB Board, as well as others, about strikeouts. Many Cubs fans, noticing the preference of Cubs players for the strikeout as a preferred outcome of their at-bats, have argued that strikeouts do not matter. So. presumably, it is not a great worry that several Cubs prospects strike out all the time. (I think Baez set some sort of record for percentage of strikeouts for a player with at least 200 plate appearances).
Actually, it is perfectly true that there is a weak correlation in most statistical analyses between strikeouts and winning percentage. There is, however, a strong and statistically significant inverse correlation between strikeouts and runs scored. There is a similarly strong correlation between runs scored and winning percentage. So, looking at the big picture, strikeouts do matter.
As far as the games themselves, there were quite a few exciting games. I cannot say all the teams were exciting. Try as I might, although the Royals are a Cinderella story, I can't say they are a good team or they really belong. I expect the Giants to win the Series rather easily. The Giants really are a very good, solid, team. Also, it was really good to see the Cards go down. They play good ball, but I just don't like them.
I saw an interesting piece recently that discussed the topic of the effect of the strike zone on run production. The author's premise is that, over recent years, umpires have started calling more low strikes, actually lowering the strike zone below the knees, and narrowing the zone as it affects the corners. This has shifted the advantage to pitching with obvious results. He makes a convincing argument that explains at least some of the lack of production. I haven't really noticed this watching games, though I will say that if the camera illustrations on TV of balls and strikes are accurate, the umpires are, in general, highly inconsistent and prone to error.
Recently there was a long exchange on the Cubs MLB Board, as well as others, about strikeouts. Many Cubs fans, noticing the preference of Cubs players for the strikeout as a preferred outcome of their at-bats, have argued that strikeouts do not matter. So. presumably, it is not a great worry that several Cubs prospects strike out all the time. (I think Baez set some sort of record for percentage of strikeouts for a player with at least 200 plate appearances).
Actually, it is perfectly true that there is a weak correlation in most statistical analyses between strikeouts and winning percentage. There is, however, a strong and statistically significant inverse correlation between strikeouts and runs scored. There is a similarly strong correlation between runs scored and winning percentage. So, looking at the big picture, strikeouts do matter.
Monday, September 29, 2014
Reason to Hope?
Probably. The papers are full of happy talk about the Cubs future, including pearls of wisdom from Castro and Rizzo about winning a division next year. That's certainly possible. The NL Central, despite providing two playoff teams for the second straight season, is not the strongest in baseball, nor are the Pirates and Cardinals powerhouse teams without significant weaknesses.
On the plus side, the Cubs went 31-28 in the last two months of 2014 despite trading away Samardzija and Hammel, playing a pretty tough schedule down the stretch, and losing both Rizzo and Castro to injuries for a good chunk of that time.
They sure did not win because of their hitting, as they continue to have problems scoring runs and putting innings together. I am of a mind the real reason they did OK during the stretch was because of their pitching. Arrieta and Hendricks were especially impressive and Wada did well to keep them in games. The bullpen also seemed to gel when they could rotate Grimm, Ramirez, Strop, and Rondon into the late innings of close games or games when they had the lead. The addition of another lefty in the pen and a first class starter like Lester would make them an impressive staff next season.
On the offensive side, besides the reconstruction of Castro and Rizzo as hitters, the positive steps were the progress of Chris Coghlan and the promotion of Jorge Soler. In my mind, Soler is a potential star and Coghlan a keeper as a leadoff hitter.
Negative steps were the performance of Lake and Olt. I still don't think Olt had a fair shot, especially late in the year when he was striking out a lot less on the days he played. Lake looks like a guy they ought to give up on real soon.
Alcantara and Baez were not the successes that people hoped for. Together they struck out about 40% of the time. I think Alcantara will improve in this regard next year, though whether he will be a .300 hitter who gets on base enough to use his speed is another question. At 2B, that's OK, in CF, where he is a work-in-progress defensively, maybe not.
I don't know what to say about Baez that has not already been said. He is either a budding star or a complete dud. Indications so far favor the latter. OK, he's only 21, but he is just clueless thus far. All players develop at a different pace, but, geez, I don't think that Trout and Harper looked this bad, nor did Castro who was even younger when he came up. Baez's numbers and performance are worse than Lake and Olt, and that is saying something.
The free agent market is pretty thin for impact bats. Russell Martin is the only guy worth a flyer and this means giving up on Welington Castillo. Castillo has developed into a pretty good defensive catcher, but so far his offense has been inconsistent. Might be too early to write him off.
Much of the Cubs hopes next year, even if they make the smart moves to shore up the rotation, will depend on how great an impact Bryant makes. He is likely a sure-fire star, but will he be enough to push the Cubs to the top?
On the plus side, the Cubs went 31-28 in the last two months of 2014 despite trading away Samardzija and Hammel, playing a pretty tough schedule down the stretch, and losing both Rizzo and Castro to injuries for a good chunk of that time.
They sure did not win because of their hitting, as they continue to have problems scoring runs and putting innings together. I am of a mind the real reason they did OK during the stretch was because of their pitching. Arrieta and Hendricks were especially impressive and Wada did well to keep them in games. The bullpen also seemed to gel when they could rotate Grimm, Ramirez, Strop, and Rondon into the late innings of close games or games when they had the lead. The addition of another lefty in the pen and a first class starter like Lester would make them an impressive staff next season.
On the offensive side, besides the reconstruction of Castro and Rizzo as hitters, the positive steps were the progress of Chris Coghlan and the promotion of Jorge Soler. In my mind, Soler is a potential star and Coghlan a keeper as a leadoff hitter.
Negative steps were the performance of Lake and Olt. I still don't think Olt had a fair shot, especially late in the year when he was striking out a lot less on the days he played. Lake looks like a guy they ought to give up on real soon.
Alcantara and Baez were not the successes that people hoped for. Together they struck out about 40% of the time. I think Alcantara will improve in this regard next year, though whether he will be a .300 hitter who gets on base enough to use his speed is another question. At 2B, that's OK, in CF, where he is a work-in-progress defensively, maybe not.
I don't know what to say about Baez that has not already been said. He is either a budding star or a complete dud. Indications so far favor the latter. OK, he's only 21, but he is just clueless thus far. All players develop at a different pace, but, geez, I don't think that Trout and Harper looked this bad, nor did Castro who was even younger when he came up. Baez's numbers and performance are worse than Lake and Olt, and that is saying something.
The free agent market is pretty thin for impact bats. Russell Martin is the only guy worth a flyer and this means giving up on Welington Castillo. Castillo has developed into a pretty good defensive catcher, but so far his offense has been inconsistent. Might be too early to write him off.
Much of the Cubs hopes next year, even if they make the smart moves to shore up the rotation, will depend on how great an impact Bryant makes. He is likely a sure-fire star, but will he be enough to push the Cubs to the top?
Saturday, September 27, 2014
Season's End
One of the benefits of the end of the season assessments is the plethora of good journalistic reads that reflect on the year. Here are links to a few:
Derek Jeter: The Longest Goodbye: This is a good sarcastic piece about the newly minted tradition of star players' last tours. Enough already.
The Death of the .300 Hitter: Another reflective piece about the dearth of solid hitters in recent seasons, particularly this one. Not sure I agree with everything, but a decent read.
Here are others more directly related to the Cubs:
The Cubs and Justin Masterson: This one might have been put out there by Masterson's agent. Somehow I don't see it. Masterson was a good but not great pitcher for the Indians before leveling off after a series of injuries. The Indians faced a similar dilemma before they traded him at the deadline to the Cardinals. They had a choice between extending and saying goodbye. The Cubs would likely have to make the same sort of commitment in the free agent market, so how is this worth the risk? Masterson has been pretty awful for the Cards in the stretch run. Somehow I expect the Cubs to make a pitch for a genuine stopper this off-season if all this stuff about becoming a perennial contender isn't just blather. Lester would be more like it.
Sheffield: Baez Needs to Fix Flaw in Swing: I happen to agree with Sheffield here. There is something wrong with a guy's swing and approach when he misses that often. You don't know what is going on behind the scenes, but it seems to me the Cubs approach with Baez is a little too casual. Again it is hard for a fan to make a judgment, but to my mind - especially if Russell is what everyone says he is - Baez is a potential trade candidate. The consensus is the Mets need a shortstop and they have young pitching to spare. Somehow I always have doubts about the Mets young pitching. Their press is often better than the real thing. A better partner might have been the Marlins, who were likely to move Stanton before their latest push to extend him. Who knows, maybe Stanton won't bite.
Derek Jeter: The Longest Goodbye: This is a good sarcastic piece about the newly minted tradition of star players' last tours. Enough already.
The Death of the .300 Hitter: Another reflective piece about the dearth of solid hitters in recent seasons, particularly this one. Not sure I agree with everything, but a decent read.
Here are others more directly related to the Cubs:
The Cubs and Justin Masterson: This one might have been put out there by Masterson's agent. Somehow I don't see it. Masterson was a good but not great pitcher for the Indians before leveling off after a series of injuries. The Indians faced a similar dilemma before they traded him at the deadline to the Cardinals. They had a choice between extending and saying goodbye. The Cubs would likely have to make the same sort of commitment in the free agent market, so how is this worth the risk? Masterson has been pretty awful for the Cards in the stretch run. Somehow I expect the Cubs to make a pitch for a genuine stopper this off-season if all this stuff about becoming a perennial contender isn't just blather. Lester would be more like it.
Sheffield: Baez Needs to Fix Flaw in Swing: I happen to agree with Sheffield here. There is something wrong with a guy's swing and approach when he misses that often. You don't know what is going on behind the scenes, but it seems to me the Cubs approach with Baez is a little too casual. Again it is hard for a fan to make a judgment, but to my mind - especially if Russell is what everyone says he is - Baez is a potential trade candidate. The consensus is the Mets need a shortstop and they have young pitching to spare. Somehow I always have doubts about the Mets young pitching. Their press is often better than the real thing. A better partner might have been the Marlins, who were likely to move Stanton before their latest push to extend him. Who knows, maybe Stanton won't bite.
Thursday, September 18, 2014
Bummer
Went out to the ballpark Thursday night, probably for the last time this season as there are only a handful of dates remaining. Really cold as the night wore on and kind of irritating as well. I've been to a lot of Cubs games in my time, but I cannot recall seeing half-a-dozen infants within about eight or ten rows ever. Nor as many grinning fools taking selfies while play was going on.
Oh, well. The Cubs started out like a house on fire, building up a 4-1 lead behind Wada, who has pitched quite well since joining the team, at least for the first six innings or so. Given he is returning from surgery, I wonder if his lack of stamina is a result of this factor and, of course, whether he will improve over the off-season. For some reason, the Cubs have always owned Greinke at Wrigley Field, and that was the case last night.
Once Wada hit the showers, the Cubs bullpen proceeded to blow the game, more or less as they did in the Toronto series last week. Ramirez had nothing. Virtually every Dodger hitter just teed off on him. He was ill-served by the Watkins error, but that doesn't explain his failure completely. For some reason, Renteria continues to be stubborn about his bullpen and there is never anyone warming up when a guy is obviously having an off night.
Actually there is not a lot to like about Reneria's handling of the team over the last few weeks. I know it is September and I know Castro is out for the year and Rizzo has missed a lot of time and Soler needs an occasional off day, but these lineups are killers lately. And the strategy or lack thereof is upsetting. For example, the first four Cubs reach base and the Cubs score twice in the first inning without recording an out. Kalish, who for some reason is playing CF and for some equally inexplicable reason is batting fifth, bunts. Naturally, the Dodgers get the force at third, likely because neither of the Cubs base-runners thought anyone would be dumb enough to call a bunt or do so on his own.
Besides the Watkins error - now we know why the Cubs tried to convert him to the outfield, as he clearly cannot play 2B - the Cubs played a very sloppy game in the field and on the bases. What is Valbuena thinking trying to take second on Gonzalez's error with Puig in RF? These kinds of failure are perhaps natural to a young team, but there continues to be little improvement in play and virtually no consequences for those who mess up.
Actually, besides the loss of Castro and Rizzo, another reason the Cubs have played worse in September than August is the way the team has been handled, especially the pitchers. Switching to a six man rotation means not only do you see an inferior starter 20% more often, but that your starters are pitching on an extra day's rest, which, at least for some pitchers, is not a good thing at all. The other thing is that, having so many bullpen options, Renteria has chosen to alter a lot of the established roles his relievers have enjoyed and to use these guys at much longer intervals of rest. Again, not necessarily a good thing, and not something that really tells you much about the future.
In any case, I left early and missed most of the really depressing play. The last three innings took what seemed like several hours to play. When I flipped on the TV at home, they were still playing. To my horror, I thought I picked up the sound of these idiots who howl all the time in the late innings when all the sane people have gone home. Say it isn't so.
Oh, well. The Cubs started out like a house on fire, building up a 4-1 lead behind Wada, who has pitched quite well since joining the team, at least for the first six innings or so. Given he is returning from surgery, I wonder if his lack of stamina is a result of this factor and, of course, whether he will improve over the off-season. For some reason, the Cubs have always owned Greinke at Wrigley Field, and that was the case last night.
Once Wada hit the showers, the Cubs bullpen proceeded to blow the game, more or less as they did in the Toronto series last week. Ramirez had nothing. Virtually every Dodger hitter just teed off on him. He was ill-served by the Watkins error, but that doesn't explain his failure completely. For some reason, Renteria continues to be stubborn about his bullpen and there is never anyone warming up when a guy is obviously having an off night.
Actually there is not a lot to like about Reneria's handling of the team over the last few weeks. I know it is September and I know Castro is out for the year and Rizzo has missed a lot of time and Soler needs an occasional off day, but these lineups are killers lately. And the strategy or lack thereof is upsetting. For example, the first four Cubs reach base and the Cubs score twice in the first inning without recording an out. Kalish, who for some reason is playing CF and for some equally inexplicable reason is batting fifth, bunts. Naturally, the Dodgers get the force at third, likely because neither of the Cubs base-runners thought anyone would be dumb enough to call a bunt or do so on his own.
Besides the Watkins error - now we know why the Cubs tried to convert him to the outfield, as he clearly cannot play 2B - the Cubs played a very sloppy game in the field and on the bases. What is Valbuena thinking trying to take second on Gonzalez's error with Puig in RF? These kinds of failure are perhaps natural to a young team, but there continues to be little improvement in play and virtually no consequences for those who mess up.
Actually, besides the loss of Castro and Rizzo, another reason the Cubs have played worse in September than August is the way the team has been handled, especially the pitchers. Switching to a six man rotation means not only do you see an inferior starter 20% more often, but that your starters are pitching on an extra day's rest, which, at least for some pitchers, is not a good thing at all. The other thing is that, having so many bullpen options, Renteria has chosen to alter a lot of the established roles his relievers have enjoyed and to use these guys at much longer intervals of rest. Again, not necessarily a good thing, and not something that really tells you much about the future.
In any case, I left early and missed most of the really depressing play. The last three innings took what seemed like several hours to play. When I flipped on the TV at home, they were still playing. To my horror, I thought I picked up the sound of these idiots who howl all the time in the late innings when all the sane people have gone home. Say it isn't so.
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Bad to the Bone
The Cubs have dropped six straight since their brief reach for respectability leading up to the Pirates series. Sure they miss Rizzo and Castro in the lineup, but that's not an excuse. They played pretty well when Castro was on bereavement leave or whatever that was and also through the early days of Rizzo's injury. I have to think there is something deeper in this than meets the eye, although just what it is beats me.
A couple of things you can conclude. One is the Cubs have no idea how to play on synthetic turf. Thankfully there are very few of these obscene stadia remaining, but you would think one of the coaches would take some of the players aside and explain that the ball bounces higher and you can play further back in the infield and so on. Maybe they could take a couple of grounders in infield practice. Apparently not.
Another thing you can conclude is that right now Javier Baez is hopelessly over-matched. His plate appearances are a joke. Not only that but his entire approach to the game is clueless. Witness his base-running in the first inning when he might have scored from first base on Valbuena's double if he had not been looking around to see where the ball was instead of running full out and then running past the stop sign Jones gave him at third and getting picked off. What strikes me most about Baez thus far is his lack of baseball intelligence. You can have all the ability in the world but if you just do not understand the game, you are likely to stink. Jay Cutler is an example of this theorem, by the way.
You can argue that the Baez play set the tenor of the game going forward. The Cubs would have scored at least one run and might have got out to a decent lead. Instead they played from behind the whole way after the Blue Jays manufactured a run when Olt messed up a grounder to first by not holding the runner sufficiently at second. (A minor conclusion here is that Olt is not a first baseman).
The sixth inning, when Hendricks ran into a wall, was the highlight of the night. Soler misplays a bloop single that bounces off the turf, but what is Kalish thinking? He has the batter caught between first and second, but instead airmails the ball in the direction of home plate. A more serious question might be why Kalish is playing center field in the first place. I guess I had nothing better to do the last few nights but watch this sorry excuse for baseball.
The thing is that nothing seems to change with this franchise. Long ago even before the Epstein regime took over, I once likened the Cubs play to that of a 16-inch softball team. Everybody has had the experience. Guys try to hit a home run on every swing. They run like crazy until someone throws them out. The fielders all misplay nearly every chance, then throw the ball as far as they can in the direction of home plate. Watch the Cubs play and tell me if there is a discernible difference in style. No wonder Renteria is embarrassed. He should be.
A couple of things you can conclude. One is the Cubs have no idea how to play on synthetic turf. Thankfully there are very few of these obscene stadia remaining, but you would think one of the coaches would take some of the players aside and explain that the ball bounces higher and you can play further back in the infield and so on. Maybe they could take a couple of grounders in infield practice. Apparently not.
Another thing you can conclude is that right now Javier Baez is hopelessly over-matched. His plate appearances are a joke. Not only that but his entire approach to the game is clueless. Witness his base-running in the first inning when he might have scored from first base on Valbuena's double if he had not been looking around to see where the ball was instead of running full out and then running past the stop sign Jones gave him at third and getting picked off. What strikes me most about Baez thus far is his lack of baseball intelligence. You can have all the ability in the world but if you just do not understand the game, you are likely to stink. Jay Cutler is an example of this theorem, by the way.
You can argue that the Baez play set the tenor of the game going forward. The Cubs would have scored at least one run and might have got out to a decent lead. Instead they played from behind the whole way after the Blue Jays manufactured a run when Olt messed up a grounder to first by not holding the runner sufficiently at second. (A minor conclusion here is that Olt is not a first baseman).
The sixth inning, when Hendricks ran into a wall, was the highlight of the night. Soler misplays a bloop single that bounces off the turf, but what is Kalish thinking? He has the batter caught between first and second, but instead airmails the ball in the direction of home plate. A more serious question might be why Kalish is playing center field in the first place. I guess I had nothing better to do the last few nights but watch this sorry excuse for baseball.
The thing is that nothing seems to change with this franchise. Long ago even before the Epstein regime took over, I once likened the Cubs play to that of a 16-inch softball team. Everybody has had the experience. Guys try to hit a home run on every swing. They run like crazy until someone throws them out. The fielders all misplay nearly every chance, then throw the ball as far as they can in the direction of home plate. Watch the Cubs play and tell me if there is a discernible difference in style. No wonder Renteria is embarrassed. He should be.
Thursday, September 4, 2014
Cubs/Brewers
Actually I was out at Wrigley Wednesday night. The shot above shows Soler batting with, I think, with Coghlan on third base and Valbuena (out of picture) at second just before Soler doubled in two runs. I should have brought some longer glass.
Anyway, the Cubs have played well over the past few series. They should have won three of four in St. Louis but for some sloppy play. They swept the Brewers who are in free fall right now, having lost their ninth in a row against St. Louis on Thursday night. Granted Milwaukee has had some injuries, but they have never impressed me as a genuinely good team. Actually I do not think the Cards are all that great either but they will likely win the division. All the more reason for the Cubs to double down on next year. The Central Division is nothing to write home about.
Back to the Cubs, though, Soler continues to impress, as does Hendricks. Actually, Watkins also seems like a changed performer in this year's callup and Alcantara seems to be coming around a bit after a rough go. Baez, not so much. I realize he has enormous potential and sometimes players need to fail big time in their first shot to accept the adjustments they need to make, but right now he is completely overmatched and his performance is not a whole lot different than Jackson, Lake, and Olt before him.
The papers are full of stories that Castro may have played his last game for the Cubs, given his apparently season-ending injury. I have always waxed hot and cold on Castro, mostly cold or lukewarm. I will grant he has matured this year as a hitter though this is probably his plateau. He can be a useful player on a good team, though. If the alternative to Castro is Baez, they ought to hold on to him right now. In any case, were they to trade either, they had better get a real top-of-the-line major league pitcher in exchange.
The Cubs were smart to bring up some of these kids early, not just to give them the experience, but to provide some interest for the fans who have heretofore endured several seasons of just awful and hopeless baseball.
Friday, August 29, 2014
Soler
The only bright spot in the Reds series was the debut of Jorge Soler who so far has more than met expectations. Takes pitches, works the count in his favor, swings at strikes, hits with authority, throws to the right base and hits the cutoff man. What's wrong with this guy?
Maybe another bright spot was Travis Wood's performance Tuesday night. Otherwise the Cubs played their usual awful baseball against the Reds. It is kind of odd, but the Cubs play very badly nearly every time they face the Reds. It used to be the Brewers who brought out the worst in them, really on both sides. Nowadays it's the Reds.
On another note, Epstein announced the Cubs would have plenty of money to throw around in the off-season. About time. Nothing correlates with success in baseball more than spending money wisely. A lot of money.
On this topic, everyone seems to think the Cubs need to concentrate on pitching. Epstein's pitch looked like code for the idea he is going to go after Jon Lester big time in the free agent market. This is a good thing. The Cubs have been pretty successful in rescuing under-performing pitching over the past few years. Wood, Wada, and Arrieta come to mind, not to mention the guys they have flipped like Maholm, Feldman, and Hammel.
They have a solid coaching infrastructure in place that has provided impressive results. Still, if you are to contend, you need to get a genuine ace. That's about as far as I would go here. The Cubs real problem in Epstein's tenure has not been pitching, which has been pretty effective by and large.
The real problem is hitting, or, more precisely, scoring runs. The Cubs are at or near bottom in every category that leads to scoring runs. What the Cubs need is a veteran outfielder who hits for average and gets on base. I'm not sure who that is or if he is available as a free agent, but adding that piece could change a lot, especially if Bryant and Soler deliver and even if Baez turns out to be Soriano-lite.
Maybe another bright spot was Travis Wood's performance Tuesday night. Otherwise the Cubs played their usual awful baseball against the Reds. It is kind of odd, but the Cubs play very badly nearly every time they face the Reds. It used to be the Brewers who brought out the worst in them, really on both sides. Nowadays it's the Reds.
On another note, Epstein announced the Cubs would have plenty of money to throw around in the off-season. About time. Nothing correlates with success in baseball more than spending money wisely. A lot of money.
On this topic, everyone seems to think the Cubs need to concentrate on pitching. Epstein's pitch looked like code for the idea he is going to go after Jon Lester big time in the free agent market. This is a good thing. The Cubs have been pretty successful in rescuing under-performing pitching over the past few years. Wood, Wada, and Arrieta come to mind, not to mention the guys they have flipped like Maholm, Feldman, and Hammel.
They have a solid coaching infrastructure in place that has provided impressive results. Still, if you are to contend, you need to get a genuine ace. That's about as far as I would go here. The Cubs real problem in Epstein's tenure has not been pitching, which has been pretty effective by and large.
The real problem is hitting, or, more precisely, scoring runs. The Cubs are at or near bottom in every category that leads to scoring runs. What the Cubs need is a veteran outfielder who hits for average and gets on base. I'm not sure who that is or if he is available as a free agent, but adding that piece could change a lot, especially if Bryant and Soler deliver and even if Baez turns out to be Soriano-lite.
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Last Home Stand
The Cubs managed to take four of the six games on the home stand, mainly because they swept the Orioles, holding them to only four runs in the series. I must say the Orioles were not impressive for being well ahead in the AL East. On the other hand, the Giants pitching completely dominated the Cubs hitters, who continue to reach double digits in strikeouts even when they manage to eek out a couple of runs and win a ballgame.
There is an interesting article about Javier Baez that is worth a read. It poses the question whether Baez will ever become the player everyone hopes he will if he continues to display a complete lack of plate discipline. Although most people hedge on this issue and the article never really answers the question, the real problem is whether he will be considered a solid star should he ameliorate the strikeouts a little bit, certainly under the over 40% rate he has displayed to date.
In other words, lets say he becomes another Soriano, who is the most comparable hitter to whom he bears comparison to date. Soriano had a good career. He was always suspect in the field no matter where he played. In this respect, Baez is superior, as he does seem to be a better than average infielder. On the other hand, he does not have Soriano's speed on the bases.
For my money, I have to say Baez has to do better to live up to the hype, if only to be consistent with my oft-expressed distaste for Soriano as a player. The thing is, guys like Soriano rarely play for really good championship teams. Soriano's only taste of a championship caliber team came with the Yankees early in his career. He played for the two Cubs teams that were quite good teams in 2007 and 2008, but otherwise for mediocre teams that could tolerate the holes in his game because they were not going anywhere anyway.
So lets hope Baez straightens himself out and learns how to play baseball instead of just putting on a home run show.
There is an interesting article about Javier Baez that is worth a read. It poses the question whether Baez will ever become the player everyone hopes he will if he continues to display a complete lack of plate discipline. Although most people hedge on this issue and the article never really answers the question, the real problem is whether he will be considered a solid star should he ameliorate the strikeouts a little bit, certainly under the over 40% rate he has displayed to date.
In other words, lets say he becomes another Soriano, who is the most comparable hitter to whom he bears comparison to date. Soriano had a good career. He was always suspect in the field no matter where he played. In this respect, Baez is superior, as he does seem to be a better than average infielder. On the other hand, he does not have Soriano's speed on the bases.
For my money, I have to say Baez has to do better to live up to the hype, if only to be consistent with my oft-expressed distaste for Soriano as a player. The thing is, guys like Soriano rarely play for really good championship teams. Soriano's only taste of a championship caliber team came with the Yankees early in his career. He played for the two Cubs teams that were quite good teams in 2007 and 2008, but otherwise for mediocre teams that could tolerate the holes in his game because they were not going anywhere anyway.
So lets hope Baez straightens himself out and learns how to play baseball instead of just putting on a home run show.
Monday, August 18, 2014
Mets Series
The Cubs managed to split the series in New York. Something of an achievement in that they struck out 44 times in four games. They also scored only ten runs, six of them on home runs.
I suppose this illustrates my problem with this team and also with a lot of the rebuilding and development process so far. These guys all swing for the fences every time they bat, regardless of the situation. Sometimes they get lucky and hit it out of the park. Mostly they do not. Teams who play in that style do not win consistently.
You have to question how this is all going to work out given that these tendencies exist throughout the organization from A ball to AAA to the majors and, if anything, because the majors are less forgiving, things tend to get a lot worse. Are these players the wrong players or uncoachable or are the coaches incompetent or is it a combination of factors?
Baez is a case in point. Today he struck out twice and hit a long home run to ice the game. Yesterday he walked twice, his first walks in the majors and struck out the other two at-bats. He has struck out 24 times in 62 plate appearances, roughly 40% of the time. There is certainly room for improvement there and potential as well, but lets see something positive over the rest of the season. And lets expect something positive as well.
On the positive side - and people are always saying I am overly negative in my assessments - Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks have both looked great. Together they could form the nucleus of a very productive staff. While Wood has been inconsistent, Wada has pitched well. Only Jackson continues to stink it up.
Evidently the Cubs know how to coach and develop pitchers. They need to acquire the same skills in relation to their hitting prospects.
I suppose this illustrates my problem with this team and also with a lot of the rebuilding and development process so far. These guys all swing for the fences every time they bat, regardless of the situation. Sometimes they get lucky and hit it out of the park. Mostly they do not. Teams who play in that style do not win consistently.
You have to question how this is all going to work out given that these tendencies exist throughout the organization from A ball to AAA to the majors and, if anything, because the majors are less forgiving, things tend to get a lot worse. Are these players the wrong players or uncoachable or are the coaches incompetent or is it a combination of factors?
Baez is a case in point. Today he struck out twice and hit a long home run to ice the game. Yesterday he walked twice, his first walks in the majors and struck out the other two at-bats. He has struck out 24 times in 62 plate appearances, roughly 40% of the time. There is certainly room for improvement there and potential as well, but lets see something positive over the rest of the season. And lets expect something positive as well.
On the positive side - and people are always saying I am overly negative in my assessments - Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks have both looked great. Together they could form the nucleus of a very productive staff. While Wood has been inconsistent, Wada has pitched well. Only Jackson continues to stink it up.
Evidently the Cubs know how to coach and develop pitchers. They need to acquire the same skills in relation to their hitting prospects.
Monday, August 11, 2014
Are Strikeouts Contagious?
One of the old announcer cliches used to be that hitting is contagious. I wonder if the same applies to strikeouts. Looks that way on this Cubs homestand. The Cubs added 9 this evening, bringing their total for the four games at Wrigley to 53 against a two walks, none tonight. That, in addition to some spotty and sloppy play in the field has led to a single win in four tries.
The Cubs pitching has not been too bad on the current stand either, so there is really no excuse for the pathetic offense. Wood pitched pretty well, as did Wada. Even Jackson only allowed four runs instead of the usual eight on Saturday. Arrieta pitched a great game last night. But for naught.
I guess one reason the Cubs don't score is their lineup. I mean, they would not score many runs anyway because of their lack of plate discipline and, lets be honest here, actual talent, but now that Renteria has settled on a more or less consistent lineup day-to-day, you kind of wonder about the order and how anyone could think it made much sense. Coghlan is having a nice year and makes some sense leading off, especially given the alternatives, but why is Baez batting second?
The theory is that batting in front of Rizzo he will get pitches to hit. However, since he swings at everything whether it is over his head or bouncing in, no one is going to throw him a pitch to hit unless by accident. Rizzo make sense third and I guess Castro, the only other guy who can hit with some consistency, can be justified. Valbuena fifth, though. Come on. Leaving aside the question of whether he should be playing at all, batting him fifth is an instant rally-killer. Teams have figured out that he is dangerous on occasion in a fastball count, so he never sees one he can hit.
Similarly, Alcantara is fast and seems a natural to bat second. Since Renteria dropped him down to sixth to take the pressure off, he is batting .167. Go figure. For the rest, Rugiano and Castillo, you are not expecting much consistency and that's what you get.
Actually, I've never understood the baseball cliche of putting certain guys in front of power hitters and others behind them for protection. I guess the idea of putting another good hitter behind your best hitter means that pitchers will not necessarily pitch around him, though the theory breaks down somewhat depending on the skill level of the secondary player. In the case of Rizzo and Castro, I would argue the situation benefits Castro more than Rizzo. Witness the number of walks Rizzo takes. Teams are quite content to pitch carefully to Rizzo and take their chances with Castro.
With respect to the notion of batting a less skilled hitter or less experienced hitter in front of a power guy, a similar measure of skill levels applies to its success. Alcantara, who has some rudimentary awareness of the strike zone, benefited from batting in front of Rizzo to the extent he saw more fastball strikes, pitches he is comfortable hitting, given that pitchers did not want to face Rizzo with men on base. Baez, since he has no idea whatever of the strike zone, derives no benefit from batting in front of the team's best hitter, since pitchers will continue to throw him bad pitches until he demonstrates that he can take them and work the count to his advantage. He actually hurts Rizzo by batting in front of him as he does not get on base or put the ball in play, so that in the long run, Rizzo will bat more often with no one on base and probably two outs.
The Cubs pitching has not been too bad on the current stand either, so there is really no excuse for the pathetic offense. Wood pitched pretty well, as did Wada. Even Jackson only allowed four runs instead of the usual eight on Saturday. Arrieta pitched a great game last night. But for naught.
I guess one reason the Cubs don't score is their lineup. I mean, they would not score many runs anyway because of their lack of plate discipline and, lets be honest here, actual talent, but now that Renteria has settled on a more or less consistent lineup day-to-day, you kind of wonder about the order and how anyone could think it made much sense. Coghlan is having a nice year and makes some sense leading off, especially given the alternatives, but why is Baez batting second?
The theory is that batting in front of Rizzo he will get pitches to hit. However, since he swings at everything whether it is over his head or bouncing in, no one is going to throw him a pitch to hit unless by accident. Rizzo make sense third and I guess Castro, the only other guy who can hit with some consistency, can be justified. Valbuena fifth, though. Come on. Leaving aside the question of whether he should be playing at all, batting him fifth is an instant rally-killer. Teams have figured out that he is dangerous on occasion in a fastball count, so he never sees one he can hit.
Similarly, Alcantara is fast and seems a natural to bat second. Since Renteria dropped him down to sixth to take the pressure off, he is batting .167. Go figure. For the rest, Rugiano and Castillo, you are not expecting much consistency and that's what you get.
Actually, I've never understood the baseball cliche of putting certain guys in front of power hitters and others behind them for protection. I guess the idea of putting another good hitter behind your best hitter means that pitchers will not necessarily pitch around him, though the theory breaks down somewhat depending on the skill level of the secondary player. In the case of Rizzo and Castro, I would argue the situation benefits Castro more than Rizzo. Witness the number of walks Rizzo takes. Teams are quite content to pitch carefully to Rizzo and take their chances with Castro.
With respect to the notion of batting a less skilled hitter or less experienced hitter in front of a power guy, a similar measure of skill levels applies to its success. Alcantara, who has some rudimentary awareness of the strike zone, benefited from batting in front of Rizzo to the extent he saw more fastball strikes, pitches he is comfortable hitting, given that pitchers did not want to face Rizzo with men on base. Baez, since he has no idea whatever of the strike zone, derives no benefit from batting in front of the team's best hitter, since pitchers will continue to throw him bad pitches until he demonstrates that he can take them and work the count to his advantage. He actually hurts Rizzo by batting in front of him as he does not get on base or put the ball in play, so that in the long run, Rizzo will bat more often with no one on base and probably two outs.
Sunday, August 10, 2014
Javier Baez
Mixed reviews so far for Baez. The die-hards, of course, welcome him as the second coming of Ernie Banks or something. Witness the standing ovation in his first at-bat. Are these fans nuts, or just desperate?
Anyway, I'm of two minds on the issue as well. On the one hand, I would like to see the kid succeed, and I do see the makings of a really talented hitter somewhere in there, at least a guy with enormous power potential.
On the other hand, however, there is the just simply out-of-control play, even in the field. Baez just simply strikes out too often, and if he continues to do so, I wonder whether he can ever become a real star on a winning team. The sobering thing is that not only does he strike out about a quarter of the time, but his strikeout rate has increased at each level, from 21% in 2012 to 26% in 2013 to 30% this season before the promotion.
Right now he looks over-matched by major league pitching, despite the three home runs and the respectable average. Ten Ks in 23 ABs is just awful. The thing is that you don't have to offer at every pitch. When Baez settled down in the AB in which he doubled yesterday, he made the pitcher throw a strike. Right now no pitcher in his right mind should throw him a strike.
On a deeper level, I wonder what is it about this organization that they are seemingly unable to develop players through the minor league system who do not strike out all the time or exercise much plate discipline? I know this is a problem throughout baseball, but, geez, isn't there anyone down there who knows a strike from a ball?
There is quite a litany here of failures in this respect going back to Tyler Colvin and Brett Jackson. Junior Lake, Mike Olt... Even Alcantara is pushing a 30% rate though he does take walks. It is simply the case that teams that strike out that often and do not take walks do not win consistently.
Anyway, I'm of two minds on the issue as well. On the one hand, I would like to see the kid succeed, and I do see the makings of a really talented hitter somewhere in there, at least a guy with enormous power potential.
On the other hand, however, there is the just simply out-of-control play, even in the field. Baez just simply strikes out too often, and if he continues to do so, I wonder whether he can ever become a real star on a winning team. The sobering thing is that not only does he strike out about a quarter of the time, but his strikeout rate has increased at each level, from 21% in 2012 to 26% in 2013 to 30% this season before the promotion.
Right now he looks over-matched by major league pitching, despite the three home runs and the respectable average. Ten Ks in 23 ABs is just awful. The thing is that you don't have to offer at every pitch. When Baez settled down in the AB in which he doubled yesterday, he made the pitcher throw a strike. Right now no pitcher in his right mind should throw him a strike.
On a deeper level, I wonder what is it about this organization that they are seemingly unable to develop players through the minor league system who do not strike out all the time or exercise much plate discipline? I know this is a problem throughout baseball, but, geez, isn't there anyone down there who knows a strike from a ball?
There is quite a litany here of failures in this respect going back to Tyler Colvin and Brett Jackson. Junior Lake, Mike Olt... Even Alcantara is pushing a 30% rate though he does take walks. It is simply the case that teams that strike out that often and do not take walks do not win consistently.
Friday, August 8, 2014
Hamels
Looks like the Hamels deal is over. The Phillies have reportedly pulled their ace back after failing to reach a deal with the Cubs. Supposedly they wanted Addison Russell.
I'm not sure this is a good move for the Cubs as they really do not need another shortstop prospect and they do need an ace pitcher. If the Cubs are genuinely in the market for an ace in the free agent market, three guys will be around: Scherzer, Shields, and Lester.
Good luck with that, though. These guys are going to cost big bucks, probably more than Hamels. A while ago I read a piece in Fangraphs that concluded that the offer the Cubs made Samardzija was a fair one based on the metrics anyway. The problem is the market values pitchers of this sort - and by no means is Samardzija in that elite company yet - about 20% higher.
In terms of the Baez watch, what can you say? He hit two more homers yesterday in Colorado. Likely he is the real deal and paired up with Bryant, who has always looked like the better of the two in terms of discipline and consistency, the Cubs should have a formidable lineup next season, a lineup at least that is going to score some runs for a change.
Look for the league to catch up with Baez for a while anyway once they figure out how to pitch to his weaknesses.
I'm not sure this is a good move for the Cubs as they really do not need another shortstop prospect and they do need an ace pitcher. If the Cubs are genuinely in the market for an ace in the free agent market, three guys will be around: Scherzer, Shields, and Lester.
Good luck with that, though. These guys are going to cost big bucks, probably more than Hamels. A while ago I read a piece in Fangraphs that concluded that the offer the Cubs made Samardzija was a fair one based on the metrics anyway. The problem is the market values pitchers of this sort - and by no means is Samardzija in that elite company yet - about 20% higher.
In terms of the Baez watch, what can you say? He hit two more homers yesterday in Colorado. Likely he is the real deal and paired up with Bryant, who has always looked like the better of the two in terms of discipline and consistency, the Cubs should have a formidable lineup next season, a lineup at least that is going to score some runs for a change.
Look for the league to catch up with Baez for a while anyway once they figure out how to pitch to his weaknesses.
Thursday, August 7, 2014
Curious Rumors
Word is that in addition to claiming the heretofore disappointing Jacob Turner on waivers from the Marlins, the Cubs are also the mystery team to have made a bid for Phillies ace Cole Hamels.
The Turner thing is pretty low risk. Turner was a highly regarded prospect and the keystone in the trade that brought Anibal Sanchez to the Tigers. So far Turner has shown very little but he is worth a low-cost risk.
The Hamels deal is really intriguing. Hamels is a genuine proven ace, 30 years old, but under team control through 2018, admittedly at a cost of $96MM. The Cubs would have to part with some major talent to complete the deal, something at least on the scale of what they got for Samardzija.
When you think of it, though, it might be the shot in the arm the team needs if management genuinely believes the arrival of several prospects points to an upward trend for the major league franchise. Hamels would cost roughly as much as the Cub had offered Samardzija, so giving up a prospect package equivalent to the ones they received from the A's would amount to trading Hamels for Samardzija. As much as I had grown to like Samardzija, Hamels is no doubt the better player and the cheaper one as well.
So you have to ask yourself, would you trade Samardzija straight up for Hamels? The answer has to be yes.
On the Baez watch, 0 for 4.
The Turner thing is pretty low risk. Turner was a highly regarded prospect and the keystone in the trade that brought Anibal Sanchez to the Tigers. So far Turner has shown very little but he is worth a low-cost risk.
The Hamels deal is really intriguing. Hamels is a genuine proven ace, 30 years old, but under team control through 2018, admittedly at a cost of $96MM. The Cubs would have to part with some major talent to complete the deal, something at least on the scale of what they got for Samardzija.
When you think of it, though, it might be the shot in the arm the team needs if management genuinely believes the arrival of several prospects points to an upward trend for the major league franchise. Hamels would cost roughly as much as the Cub had offered Samardzija, so giving up a prospect package equivalent to the ones they received from the A's would amount to trading Hamels for Samardzija. As much as I had grown to like Samardzija, Hamels is no doubt the better player and the cheaper one as well.
So you have to ask yourself, would you trade Samardzija straight up for Hamels? The answer has to be yes.
On the Baez watch, 0 for 4.
Wednesday, August 6, 2014
Javier Baez
Javier Baez made his long-awaited major league debut last night. His long home run in the top of the 11th inning won the game for the Cubs.
I must say that when he connects he can hit the ball very hard and quite a long way. That said, it looks as if he has a bit of growing to do. JD remarked that the kid has some holes in his swing. The biggest seems to be a proclivity to swing at higher than high fastballs, which led to three strikeouts in his first game.
Also, he botched up a play in the bottom of the 10th that led to the Rockies tying the game up after the Cubs had scored a run in the top of the inning to take the lead.
Still, one game is not a career and the above observations are not meant to detract from an ultimately stellar start.
The Cubs are showing unusual patience at the plate lately, which is leading in part to the success they have enjoyed, at least against the Rockies this past week or so. Six walks in an inning. That hasn't happened since 2007-2008 for this team. Either that or the Rockies bullpen is so wild, it is hard to even think about swinging away.
I must say that when he connects he can hit the ball very hard and quite a long way. That said, it looks as if he has a bit of growing to do. JD remarked that the kid has some holes in his swing. The biggest seems to be a proclivity to swing at higher than high fastballs, which led to three strikeouts in his first game.
Also, he botched up a play in the bottom of the 10th that led to the Rockies tying the game up after the Cubs had scored a run in the top of the inning to take the lead.
Still, one game is not a career and the above observations are not meant to detract from an ultimately stellar start.
The Cubs are showing unusual patience at the plate lately, which is leading in part to the success they have enjoyed, at least against the Rockies this past week or so. Six walks in an inning. That hasn't happened since 2007-2008 for this team. Either that or the Rockies bullpen is so wild, it is hard to even think about swinging away.
Monday, August 4, 2014
Recent Days
After starting out the home stand losing four of six, the Cubs came back to even things out at 5-5, besting the woeful Rockies in three of four games.
Those games were hard to watch. I mean it was difficult to imagine any circumstances under which either team might score or do something interesting.
Oddly enough, the Cubs came back take two out of three from the hot Dodgers in LA. They might have swept had they not allowed the useless Blake Parker to pitch a second inning of relief Saturday night. One conclusion from the recent stretch of games is that Kyle Hendricks is definitely a keeper.
As far as the trade deadline transactions, I was glad to see Bonafacio traded. I always thought he was both streaky and over-rated, especially as a lead-off hitter. The Cubs wound up trading away Samardzija, Hammel, Russell, Bonafacio, Barney, and a PTBNL for two struggling starters and three highly-rated prospects who are still a long way from the big leagues. One of the starters landed on the DL the day after he reported.
On the bright side, the Cubs are calling up Baez. Presumably to play 2B with Alcantara moving to CF. Also, after trading away roughly a dozen major league starters over the past three summers, Jed Hoyer announced that the team's top project over the winter was getting some major league pitchers, guys who are likely to cost big bucks, as Samardzija will when he becomes a free agent, or require the Cubs to trade away some serious prospects, but, hey, that's the way it is when you play Theo-ball.
The odd thing is that no one seems to notice the inherent contradictions in the rebuilding approach and that the one consistent principle is they are really cheap and really stubborn.
Those games were hard to watch. I mean it was difficult to imagine any circumstances under which either team might score or do something interesting.
Oddly enough, the Cubs came back take two out of three from the hot Dodgers in LA. They might have swept had they not allowed the useless Blake Parker to pitch a second inning of relief Saturday night. One conclusion from the recent stretch of games is that Kyle Hendricks is definitely a keeper.
As far as the trade deadline transactions, I was glad to see Bonafacio traded. I always thought he was both streaky and over-rated, especially as a lead-off hitter. The Cubs wound up trading away Samardzija, Hammel, Russell, Bonafacio, Barney, and a PTBNL for two struggling starters and three highly-rated prospects who are still a long way from the big leagues. One of the starters landed on the DL the day after he reported.
On the bright side, the Cubs are calling up Baez. Presumably to play 2B with Alcantara moving to CF. Also, after trading away roughly a dozen major league starters over the past three summers, Jed Hoyer announced that the team's top project over the winter was getting some major league pitchers, guys who are likely to cost big bucks, as Samardzija will when he becomes a free agent, or require the Cubs to trade away some serious prospects, but, hey, that's the way it is when you play Theo-ball.
The odd thing is that no one seems to notice the inherent contradictions in the rebuilding approach and that the one consistent principle is they are really cheap and really stubborn.
Thursday, July 24, 2014
Recent Developments
One saw the good and the ugly in the first two games against the Padres at Wrigley Field this week. On Tuesday, the Cubs played a great game to top San Diego 6-0. Especially encouraging was the performance of rookie pitcher Kyle Hendricks who so far looks like a keeper.
Rizzo continued his hot streak and Alcantara continued to impress. Alcantara has shown a lot so far. I was impressed with his AB yesterday when he walked to load the bases even though the Cubs rally fizzled after that, more so than his homer the day before.
Yesterday was just awful. Eleven walks to a team that is notoriously swing happy. Go figure. Wada is obviously not the answer and Grimm continues to be wild all the time. Probably time to send him down.
I was surprised by some of the Cubs personnel moves this week. Although Barney has not hit much over the past two seasons, I still thought he had a future with the Cubs as a utility guy. Actually he has done a lot better the past month when he has had regular playing time and his splits against left-handed pitching are very good, right up around .300 with a .700 OPS.
Olt had to go down as he was just not hitting anything at all. He has the makings of a decent 3B if he could even hit .250 as he has real power and walks a lot as well, or at least he has walked a lot before he started striking out nearly every AB. You wonder whether these infield moves presage a promotion for Baez or even Bryant or whether they mean the Cubs just overvalue Bonafacio and Valbuena, two guys who are substitutes at best.
I saw an interesting article in Sports Illustrated this week concerning how radical defensive alignments have affected hitting and run production. Worth a read. Personally I think the current dominance of pitching has more to do with defensive strategy and the lack of plate discipline, especially with two strikes, than the emergence of power pitching.
If you really look around both leagues you do not see a preponderance of super-dominant pitchers such as were the norm in past era of pitching dominance. I mean, sure, there is Kershaw in LA and Hernandez in Seattle, and, of course, Wainwright in St. Louis, but I don't think even these guys are in the same category as Gibson and Jenkins and some of the others of the last pitching dominated era. Anyway, there are certainly not more of them and the quality of pitching in general is a lot more diluted despite the emergence of new pitches and better conditioning.
The article makes the point that the current shifts have really shut down left-handed bats. It really forces guys to use the whole field and to shorten up with two strikes. However, players nowadays are reluctant to change their style of play, in some cases to the detriment of their career. I think Carlos Pena was the first guy whose career broke down because of the shifts, but, as the article makes clear, he is not the last. In a way, that makes Anthony Rizzo's season a lot more impressive, though clearly the shifts have hurt is batting average.
Rizzo continued his hot streak and Alcantara continued to impress. Alcantara has shown a lot so far. I was impressed with his AB yesterday when he walked to load the bases even though the Cubs rally fizzled after that, more so than his homer the day before.
Yesterday was just awful. Eleven walks to a team that is notoriously swing happy. Go figure. Wada is obviously not the answer and Grimm continues to be wild all the time. Probably time to send him down.
I was surprised by some of the Cubs personnel moves this week. Although Barney has not hit much over the past two seasons, I still thought he had a future with the Cubs as a utility guy. Actually he has done a lot better the past month when he has had regular playing time and his splits against left-handed pitching are very good, right up around .300 with a .700 OPS.
Olt had to go down as he was just not hitting anything at all. He has the makings of a decent 3B if he could even hit .250 as he has real power and walks a lot as well, or at least he has walked a lot before he started striking out nearly every AB. You wonder whether these infield moves presage a promotion for Baez or even Bryant or whether they mean the Cubs just overvalue Bonafacio and Valbuena, two guys who are substitutes at best.
I saw an interesting article in Sports Illustrated this week concerning how radical defensive alignments have affected hitting and run production. Worth a read. Personally I think the current dominance of pitching has more to do with defensive strategy and the lack of plate discipline, especially with two strikes, than the emergence of power pitching.
If you really look around both leagues you do not see a preponderance of super-dominant pitchers such as were the norm in past era of pitching dominance. I mean, sure, there is Kershaw in LA and Hernandez in Seattle, and, of course, Wainwright in St. Louis, but I don't think even these guys are in the same category as Gibson and Jenkins and some of the others of the last pitching dominated era. Anyway, there are certainly not more of them and the quality of pitching in general is a lot more diluted despite the emergence of new pitches and better conditioning.
The article makes the point that the current shifts have really shut down left-handed bats. It really forces guys to use the whole field and to shorten up with two strikes. However, players nowadays are reluctant to change their style of play, in some cases to the detriment of their career. I think Carlos Pena was the first guy whose career broke down because of the shifts, but, as the article makes clear, he is not the last. In a way, that makes Anthony Rizzo's season a lot more impressive, though clearly the shifts have hurt is batting average.
Sunday, July 20, 2014
Oops
Here's an indication of just how bad things have become for the Cubs. It seems that in last evening's loss to Arizona, Rick Renteria came out to make a double switch and forgot to remove his struggling starter Travis Wood. Bizarre to say the least. From the account of the game at the Cubs website:
How strange are things for the Cubs? Renteria forgot to remove Wood during a double switch in the sixth.Not to worry. Wood was eventually replaced by Villanueva who promptly allowed the two inherited runners to score anyway, effectively putting the game completely out of reach.
"It's very unorthodox, but not illegal," Renteria said, chuckling.
The manager went out to tell home-plate umpire Jim Joyce about the change, which is required.
"I was talking to Jim," Renteria said. "I grabbed the rail [of the dugout], because I was going to take a spill, and I grabbed the rail and I'm laughing. I said, 'Gosh, I think I blew my shoulder out,' and I'm giving him the switch.
"As I kept continuing to talk to him, I lost track that I left my pitcher out there," Renteria said. "I know [manager Kirk Gibson] came out, but it's not illegal because I never went to the hill."
Saturday, July 19, 2014
Yuck
Not much Cubs news to speak of since the trade. Lost 8 of 10 before the break, which, as we have noted before, was not unexpected.
There is talk the Yankees might be interested in Edwin Jackson. Boy, they must be desperate for pitching if this is true. If it is true, trade this guy right now no matter how bad the return offer is. Last night was a great example of vintage Jackson. Super for four or five innings, then disaster.
People keep thinking if this guy could put it together consistently for an entire game, he could be some kind of player. Here's a clue, folks. He has been with eight teams now over twelve seasons and he hasn't done it yet. He can't and he won't.
Last night was also vintage Renteria. He is carrying 9 relievers right now. Use them before the game gets out of hand not after and use guys who are likely to get you out of the jam even if it is only the sixth inning.
Also, what is with the lineup and by that I mean why is Sweeney playing and why do you not hit for him in the ninth inning with a man on third and one out? Oh, I get it, he bats left-handed, but aren't Lake and Olt more likely to hit a fly-ball, or even Wood.
There have been some interesting pieces lately that reflect somewhat on the trade and the Cubs strategy. Two pieces from fivethirtyeight.com that pundits have referenced show the apparent correlation between highly regarded prospects and success in terms of WAR. That's kind of true. However, a fair amount of the good numbers are the result of a handful of star prospects, guys like Harper and Trout. The real correlation, as the articles correctly point out, is salary. The bigger the payroll, the more likely a team is to win.
Another nice article from Fangraphs discusses the apparent logjam of shortstops and infielders the Cubs have accumulated. It concludes that there is none as these guys are just potential stars not actual ones and the odds of them all succeeding are pretty remote.
There is talk the Yankees might be interested in Edwin Jackson. Boy, they must be desperate for pitching if this is true. If it is true, trade this guy right now no matter how bad the return offer is. Last night was a great example of vintage Jackson. Super for four or five innings, then disaster.
People keep thinking if this guy could put it together consistently for an entire game, he could be some kind of player. Here's a clue, folks. He has been with eight teams now over twelve seasons and he hasn't done it yet. He can't and he won't.
Last night was also vintage Renteria. He is carrying 9 relievers right now. Use them before the game gets out of hand not after and use guys who are likely to get you out of the jam even if it is only the sixth inning.
Also, what is with the lineup and by that I mean why is Sweeney playing and why do you not hit for him in the ninth inning with a man on third and one out? Oh, I get it, he bats left-handed, but aren't Lake and Olt more likely to hit a fly-ball, or even Wood.
There have been some interesting pieces lately that reflect somewhat on the trade and the Cubs strategy. Two pieces from fivethirtyeight.com that pundits have referenced show the apparent correlation between highly regarded prospects and success in terms of WAR. That's kind of true. However, a fair amount of the good numbers are the result of a handful of star prospects, guys like Harper and Trout. The real correlation, as the articles correctly point out, is salary. The bigger the payroll, the more likely a team is to win.
Another nice article from Fangraphs discusses the apparent logjam of shortstops and infielders the Cubs have accumulated. It concludes that there is none as these guys are just potential stars not actual ones and the odds of them all succeeding are pretty remote.
Thursday, July 10, 2014
Six and Counting
The Cubs have lost six in a row since the Samardzija/Hammel trade. I suppose that is hardly unexpected news. These guys would be likely to make thirty more starts between them over the remainder of the season. The Cubs could certainly expect to win half of them and more than likely two-thirds. So in reality the team has traded off ten wins given the quality or lack thereof of potential replacements and the quality or lack thereof of the remainders.
Something you do not immediately factor in is the pressure the trade places on the bullpen. This was pretty evident when the Cubs blew a 5-0 lead Tuesday night. Plus this must be pretty demoralizing to the team as a whole given they had been playing fairly well, all things considered, since around the end of May. Looks like another 100 loss season is on the way, 95 for sure.
As for the rest of the team, well, you cannot expect to win much when you do not score at least four runs. Right now the Cubs are lucky to tally one or two with no improvement in sight. Lacking any consistent production from anyone but Rizzo and Castro, it is hard to say where help might come from, at least this year. Lake and Olt are thought to have potential, but they play infrequently and when they do, they strike out all the time. Olt has had some better ABs recently, but Lake should be sent down to get his swing straightened out.
Something you do not immediately factor in is the pressure the trade places on the bullpen. This was pretty evident when the Cubs blew a 5-0 lead Tuesday night. Plus this must be pretty demoralizing to the team as a whole given they had been playing fairly well, all things considered, since around the end of May. Looks like another 100 loss season is on the way, 95 for sure.
As for the rest of the team, well, you cannot expect to win much when you do not score at least four runs. Right now the Cubs are lucky to tally one or two with no improvement in sight. Lacking any consistent production from anyone but Rizzo and Castro, it is hard to say where help might come from, at least this year. Lake and Olt are thought to have potential, but they play infrequently and when they do, they strike out all the time. Olt has had some better ABs recently, but Lake should be sent down to get his swing straightened out.
Saturday, July 5, 2014
The Deal
Well, the Cubs finally pulled the trigger on Samardzija and Hammel. Not surprising, but you have to wonder about the thought process behind the move.
I've been railing for weeks about the wisdom of trading Samardzija, knowing deep down they were going to do it. Hammel, OK, he's a free agent anyway at year's end, but Samardzija, who is the only first-class pitcher to have come through the farm system since Carlos Zambrano and Mark Prior?
The real puzzler is why another shortstop. McKinney I can see, a left-handed hitting outfielder, something the Cubs do not have in their system in any abundance. But, even here, the kid is 19 and, realistically, more than two years off.
Addison Russell is, by all accounts, a potential phenom. But, come on, a 20 year old shortstop? At least a year away and probably two. Even if he is another Mike Trout, you have to question the acquisition and the risk involved given the current situation.
The pitcher involved is this year's version of Justin Grimm. At least in the Garza deal they picked up Olt and Ramirez who were ready for the majors the following year even given Olt's struggles to achieve consistency.
All in all, you have to question the whole approach the Cubs are taking, which is basically the small market, long-term rebuild. It's not just the chips and potentials you acquire with each chess move, but the big picture as well. Had the Cubs acquired an outfielder with Rizzo's potential who was operating on the same timetable as Rizzo, I might think differently, but that is not the case here.
It is fashionable now among GMs to operate this way, but, again looking at the big picture, how many of the trades of ace pitchers for prospects have panned out in terms of producing winning teams?
What have the Indians done since shedding Sabathia and Lee? The Royals since trading Greinke? Are they perennial contenders? The Twins after trading Santana? The Blue Jays after dealing Halladay?
The point is that these deals are kind of a crapshoot that generally cannot be evaluated for several years. My own view is that in general they always help the receiving team more in terms of what really counts, which is winning games in the major leagues even when individual players on the receiving end turn out to be stars in the future. Probably because just in the nature of things the sellers are dealing from weakness and the buyers from strength.
I've been railing for weeks about the wisdom of trading Samardzija, knowing deep down they were going to do it. Hammel, OK, he's a free agent anyway at year's end, but Samardzija, who is the only first-class pitcher to have come through the farm system since Carlos Zambrano and Mark Prior?
The real puzzler is why another shortstop. McKinney I can see, a left-handed hitting outfielder, something the Cubs do not have in their system in any abundance. But, even here, the kid is 19 and, realistically, more than two years off.
Addison Russell is, by all accounts, a potential phenom. But, come on, a 20 year old shortstop? At least a year away and probably two. Even if he is another Mike Trout, you have to question the acquisition and the risk involved given the current situation.
The pitcher involved is this year's version of Justin Grimm. At least in the Garza deal they picked up Olt and Ramirez who were ready for the majors the following year even given Olt's struggles to achieve consistency.
All in all, you have to question the whole approach the Cubs are taking, which is basically the small market, long-term rebuild. It's not just the chips and potentials you acquire with each chess move, but the big picture as well. Had the Cubs acquired an outfielder with Rizzo's potential who was operating on the same timetable as Rizzo, I might think differently, but that is not the case here.
It is fashionable now among GMs to operate this way, but, again looking at the big picture, how many of the trades of ace pitchers for prospects have panned out in terms of producing winning teams?
What have the Indians done since shedding Sabathia and Lee? The Royals since trading Greinke? Are they perennial contenders? The Twins after trading Santana? The Blue Jays after dealing Halladay?
The point is that these deals are kind of a crapshoot that generally cannot be evaluated for several years. My own view is that in general they always help the receiving team more in terms of what really counts, which is winning games in the major leagues even when individual players on the receiving end turn out to be stars in the future. Probably because just in the nature of things the sellers are dealing from weakness and the buyers from strength.
Wednesday, June 25, 2014
Recent Trends
The Cubs played a good game for a change and beat Cincinnati 7-3 behind a dominating start from Jake Arrieta. I'd be remiss in not crediting Epstein and Hoyer for recognizing the potential of Arrieta and Travis Wood, as well as Rizzo, and trading real players for them.
The thing is, these guys were close to major league ready. There is a big difference between those deals, and even the Garza deal, and the sort of trades we are hearing about now involving Samardzija. From what I have read, the Toronto players being eyed by the Cubs are AA and high A prospects with the exception of the right-handed pitcher Sanchez who has flopped at AAA. That's a real problem and something that, for me, at least, tips the scale toward retaining Samardzija more or less whatever the cost.
Before last night, the Cubs turned in some pretty lackluster efforts to finish off the Pirates series and begin the one with the Reds. Once again, no hitting and some spotty bullpen work. I have observed before that the Cubs right-handed heavy lineup is just more effective that the left-handed platoon even against same-sided pitchers.
One reason, I suppose, is that the Cubs left-handed hitters with the exception of Rizzo, and sometimes Valbuena when he is hot, completely stink all the time. It's not that the replacements - Lake, Olt, Barney - are exactly tearing things up. Olt, especially, rarely even puts the ball in play. However, they do require some pitching to or at least some attention on the part of the opposing pitcher and they do provide superior defense. Who knows?
Another reason they seem to win with this setup is possibly that Renteria is freer with the bench or so-called bench when it is left-handed. This makes him a little more flexible with the bullpen. Last night, for example, he used four pitchers to get out of the eighth inning. Usually he just throws out someone and if he doesn't have it, there goes the ballgame as there is no one warming up.
The thing is, these guys were close to major league ready. There is a big difference between those deals, and even the Garza deal, and the sort of trades we are hearing about now involving Samardzija. From what I have read, the Toronto players being eyed by the Cubs are AA and high A prospects with the exception of the right-handed pitcher Sanchez who has flopped at AAA. That's a real problem and something that, for me, at least, tips the scale toward retaining Samardzija more or less whatever the cost.
Before last night, the Cubs turned in some pretty lackluster efforts to finish off the Pirates series and begin the one with the Reds. Once again, no hitting and some spotty bullpen work. I have observed before that the Cubs right-handed heavy lineup is just more effective that the left-handed platoon even against same-sided pitchers.
One reason, I suppose, is that the Cubs left-handed hitters with the exception of Rizzo, and sometimes Valbuena when he is hot, completely stink all the time. It's not that the replacements - Lake, Olt, Barney - are exactly tearing things up. Olt, especially, rarely even puts the ball in play. However, they do require some pitching to or at least some attention on the part of the opposing pitcher and they do provide superior defense. Who knows?
Another reason they seem to win with this setup is possibly that Renteria is freer with the bench or so-called bench when it is left-handed. This makes him a little more flexible with the bullpen. Last night, for example, he used four pitchers to get out of the eighth inning. Usually he just throws out someone and if he doesn't have it, there goes the ballgame as there is no one warming up.
Thursday, June 19, 2014
Road Trip
The Cubs come home 5-5 on their most recent road trip. They played pretty well most of the time, winning the last two series after dropping three of four in Pittsburgh. If only they could play in the NL East all the time.
Valbuena and Castro have been hot lately, though it is really the pitching that is carrying the team. One of the upsides of losing Bonifacio to injury is that Renteria cannot find a spot for him to play. This puts Valbuena in the leadoff spot where he gets on base and Barney at second base more often than not where he stabilizes the defense. Of course, the downside is that Sweeney plays more often.
As far as the pitching goes, we are now in a situation where all the starters with the exception of Travis Wood are on the trade block. Weird, to say the least. Samardzija has apparently rejected an extension worth $85MM over five years. The Cubs need to up the ante a little and they can probably reach a settlement.
The idea of flipping Arietta, who seems to have come into his own, is really idiotic. I mean, they got this guy in exchange for Feldman with the idea he was younger and had a substantial upside.
As far as Hammel goes, I can see a case for flipping him. He is only signed for this season. He has had a career year so far. He is showing signs of coming back to his normal mid-level performance. Keeping him on a multi-year extension is probably not a justifiable move, especially given his history of injuries.
Jackson, however, is the real guy who needs to go, so if there is any market for this guy, the Cubs should jump at the chance.
The Cubs promoted Kris Bryant to AAA Iowa. He seems like the real deal for a change. It will be interesting to see what position he winds up playing. The Cubs have a ton of third base prospects in the system as well as Mike Olt who probably needs a stint in the minors to straighten himself out.
The problem there is that will give Iowa three third basemen, although Villanueva has, by and large, proved a disappointment in AAA. I think it is likely the Cubs will try to move Bryant to right field, especially if they think Olt has a future. It's not like he is a professional glove man at third, having made fourteen errors already in AA.
Valbuena and Castro have been hot lately, though it is really the pitching that is carrying the team. One of the upsides of losing Bonifacio to injury is that Renteria cannot find a spot for him to play. This puts Valbuena in the leadoff spot where he gets on base and Barney at second base more often than not where he stabilizes the defense. Of course, the downside is that Sweeney plays more often.
As far as the pitching goes, we are now in a situation where all the starters with the exception of Travis Wood are on the trade block. Weird, to say the least. Samardzija has apparently rejected an extension worth $85MM over five years. The Cubs need to up the ante a little and they can probably reach a settlement.
The idea of flipping Arietta, who seems to have come into his own, is really idiotic. I mean, they got this guy in exchange for Feldman with the idea he was younger and had a substantial upside.
As far as Hammel goes, I can see a case for flipping him. He is only signed for this season. He has had a career year so far. He is showing signs of coming back to his normal mid-level performance. Keeping him on a multi-year extension is probably not a justifiable move, especially given his history of injuries.
Jackson, however, is the real guy who needs to go, so if there is any market for this guy, the Cubs should jump at the chance.
The Cubs promoted Kris Bryant to AAA Iowa. He seems like the real deal for a change. It will be interesting to see what position he winds up playing. The Cubs have a ton of third base prospects in the system as well as Mike Olt who probably needs a stint in the minors to straighten himself out.
The problem there is that will give Iowa three third basemen, although Villanueva has, by and large, proved a disappointment in AAA. I think it is likely the Cubs will try to move Bryant to right field, especially if they think Olt has a future. It's not like he is a professional glove man at third, having made fourteen errors already in AA.
Monday, June 9, 2014
The Home Stand
The Cubs played pretty good baseball at home last week and came within two innings of sweeping the six games they played at Wrigley against the Mets and the Marlins. Unfortunately, whether it is because the A team relievers were unavailable or just a desire to change things up, Renteria let the normally reliable Schlitter and the somewhat inconsistent Strop blow a 2-0 lead, which allowed the Marlins to avoid the sweep. I still want to know how you can have seven pitchers in the bullpen but no one warming up when a guy you have brought in is obviously struggling to throw strikes.
Still 5-1 was not bad, mostly on the wave of solid pitching and some heroic hitting by Anthony Rizzo. Monday night was not so lucky an experience. I've always thought the Cubs matched up well against the Pirates, but Jackson rarely matches up well against anyone and usually does not put together two quality starts in succession.
I'm beginning to like JD more and more for his commentaries and subtle digs at Cubs strategy. Last night he opened by confiding that most teams stack up more right-handed hitters against the Pirates starter Charlie Morton because the stats seem to favor them over left-handed hitters. So the message is there is more to playing match-ups than just going with the old platoon. This message is invariably lost on Renteria. The Cubs came out with a lineup that included only Lake and Castro from the right side and seemingly paid the price.
I assume the Cubs will bring out their right-handed platoon tomorrow, such as it is. Liriano has more typical match-ups against same-sided hitters, so this is probably the best thing to do. On the other hand, Liriano, despite pitching back to form (this is, indifferently) this season, usually gives the Cubs fits.
Glad to see Veras go, by the way. A useless waste of money by the front office.
Still 5-1 was not bad, mostly on the wave of solid pitching and some heroic hitting by Anthony Rizzo. Monday night was not so lucky an experience. I've always thought the Cubs matched up well against the Pirates, but Jackson rarely matches up well against anyone and usually does not put together two quality starts in succession.
I'm beginning to like JD more and more for his commentaries and subtle digs at Cubs strategy. Last night he opened by confiding that most teams stack up more right-handed hitters against the Pirates starter Charlie Morton because the stats seem to favor them over left-handed hitters. So the message is there is more to playing match-ups than just going with the old platoon. This message is invariably lost on Renteria. The Cubs came out with a lineup that included only Lake and Castro from the right side and seemingly paid the price.
I assume the Cubs will bring out their right-handed platoon tomorrow, such as it is. Liriano has more typical match-ups against same-sided hitters, so this is probably the best thing to do. On the other hand, Liriano, despite pitching back to form (this is, indifferently) this season, usually gives the Cubs fits.
Glad to see Veras go, by the way. A useless waste of money by the front office.
Monday, June 2, 2014
Whatever
There is not much reason to write about the Cubs or to watch them for that matter. Still, it is in the blood, so I am compelled to do so. What is pretty clear is this team is going nowhere.
There are two worthwhile pieces I came across during the week, one analyzing Jeff Samardzija and the other Junior Lake. Both are worth a read.
The season is one-third over. The Cubs project to continue losing a little less than two of every three games. Maybe worse if they trade away all their starting pitchers in June or July. Either way it looks like 100 losses again.
Time for even the Cubs to start drawing some conclusions. Like this rebuilding plan resembles nothing so much as Groundhog Day and needs some tweaks, don't you think?
Anyway, here are some obvious conclusions, starting with the building blocks.
Anthony Rizzo is developing into a pretty good player, just not along the lines of a classic power-hitting first baseman. Rizzo looks to me like a poor man's Joey Votto right now. On a good team, he would be an excellent #2 hitter, assuming there was a #3 to back him up and a leadoff man who got on base.
Starlin Castro is a decent major league player. He is hopelessly misplaced batting cleanup and will likely settle in as a #6 hitter on a decent team. Even when he was batting near .300 and getting 200 hits, his OPS was in the mid .700s. In other words, not a star, especially considering his erratic defense. If you think Baez is the real deal, you should trade Castro or move him to CF.
Wellington Castillo still has potential, but he needs more consistent rest to develop into a solid hitter. He needs help from his pitchers to control the running game, which he is not getting.
The rest of the position players are not much to write home about. Lake is still a project, as is Olt. Valbuena, despite his streaks and newly-minted patience, is still just a left-handed hitter who can hit fastballs from mid-level pitchers. In short, he is a perfect utility infielder and pinch-hitter. Barney is still a great infielder who will always be about a .250 hitter. A good team would find him invaluable as a stabilizing influence on the infield. Unfortunately, the Cubs sparing use of him this year has just not let him find his stride as a hitter and has destroyed whatever trade value he may have possessed.
One of the genuine puzzlers for me this season is the infatuation the Cubs have developed for Emilio Bonafacio. Bonafacio is a career mediocrity. He has speed to burn, but doesn't use it and when he does it gets him in so much trouble on the bases, you wish he hadn't.
Bonafacio started the season on fire. Since then he has returned to his basic form. He is hitting .269 with an OBP of .315. Career numbers: .263/.321. Last ten games: .162/under .250. Yet he is in the lineup everyday leading off. No wonder the Cubs never score with a table-setter like that. Time to go grab some pine, as Hawk would say were he on the South Side.
The outfield is the real problem on this team. There isn't any. Lake is a project. I thought Schierholtz and Ruggiano would provide a placeholder tandem in RF, but clearly they have both been major disappointments. Time to pull the plug on that. The rest of the outfielders, including the guys on injured reserve and down in AAA, are hardly better than AA or AAA players.
The Cubs pitching, especially their starting pitching, is a significant strength. You kind of wonder why they intend to trade away two of their best three starters, but, hey, that's the PLAN and one does not deviate from the PLAN, right? Just pay Samardzija already.
The bullpen is a bit of a project, but it is well stocked with some interesting power arms who are in the process of development. Certainly Strop and Rondon and Ramirez come to mind. One thing the Cubs should consider is trying to bring along some of the better arms in AAA in a more traditional way, giving them major league experience first in the bullpen before they hit the starting rotation and wash out. Rusin and Hendricks might benefit from this treatment, and God knows what the hell they are doing with Wada down there.
There are some modest trade chips in the Cubs bullpen now. Villanueva and Veras are having sub-par seasons, as is Russell. Wright is an OK left-handed specialist, but you only need a left-handed specialist when you have a chance to get that one out that puts you in position to win. The Cubs are a good ten outs shy of that spot right now.
There are two worthwhile pieces I came across during the week, one analyzing Jeff Samardzija and the other Junior Lake. Both are worth a read.
The season is one-third over. The Cubs project to continue losing a little less than two of every three games. Maybe worse if they trade away all their starting pitchers in June or July. Either way it looks like 100 losses again.
Time for even the Cubs to start drawing some conclusions. Like this rebuilding plan resembles nothing so much as Groundhog Day and needs some tweaks, don't you think?
Anyway, here are some obvious conclusions, starting with the building blocks.
Anthony Rizzo is developing into a pretty good player, just not along the lines of a classic power-hitting first baseman. Rizzo looks to me like a poor man's Joey Votto right now. On a good team, he would be an excellent #2 hitter, assuming there was a #3 to back him up and a leadoff man who got on base.
Starlin Castro is a decent major league player. He is hopelessly misplaced batting cleanup and will likely settle in as a #6 hitter on a decent team. Even when he was batting near .300 and getting 200 hits, his OPS was in the mid .700s. In other words, not a star, especially considering his erratic defense. If you think Baez is the real deal, you should trade Castro or move him to CF.
Wellington Castillo still has potential, but he needs more consistent rest to develop into a solid hitter. He needs help from his pitchers to control the running game, which he is not getting.
The rest of the position players are not much to write home about. Lake is still a project, as is Olt. Valbuena, despite his streaks and newly-minted patience, is still just a left-handed hitter who can hit fastballs from mid-level pitchers. In short, he is a perfect utility infielder and pinch-hitter. Barney is still a great infielder who will always be about a .250 hitter. A good team would find him invaluable as a stabilizing influence on the infield. Unfortunately, the Cubs sparing use of him this year has just not let him find his stride as a hitter and has destroyed whatever trade value he may have possessed.
One of the genuine puzzlers for me this season is the infatuation the Cubs have developed for Emilio Bonafacio. Bonafacio is a career mediocrity. He has speed to burn, but doesn't use it and when he does it gets him in so much trouble on the bases, you wish he hadn't.
Bonafacio started the season on fire. Since then he has returned to his basic form. He is hitting .269 with an OBP of .315. Career numbers: .263/.321. Last ten games: .162/under .250. Yet he is in the lineup everyday leading off. No wonder the Cubs never score with a table-setter like that. Time to go grab some pine, as Hawk would say were he on the South Side.
The outfield is the real problem on this team. There isn't any. Lake is a project. I thought Schierholtz and Ruggiano would provide a placeholder tandem in RF, but clearly they have both been major disappointments. Time to pull the plug on that. The rest of the outfielders, including the guys on injured reserve and down in AAA, are hardly better than AA or AAA players.
The Cubs pitching, especially their starting pitching, is a significant strength. You kind of wonder why they intend to trade away two of their best three starters, but, hey, that's the PLAN and one does not deviate from the PLAN, right? Just pay Samardzija already.
The bullpen is a bit of a project, but it is well stocked with some interesting power arms who are in the process of development. Certainly Strop and Rondon and Ramirez come to mind. One thing the Cubs should consider is trying to bring along some of the better arms in AAA in a more traditional way, giving them major league experience first in the bullpen before they hit the starting rotation and wash out. Rusin and Hendricks might benefit from this treatment, and God knows what the hell they are doing with Wada down there.
There are some modest trade chips in the Cubs bullpen now. Villanueva and Veras are having sub-par seasons, as is Russell. Wright is an OK left-handed specialist, but you only need a left-handed specialist when you have a chance to get that one out that puts you in position to win. The Cubs are a good ten outs shy of that spot right now.
Sunday, May 25, 2014
The Mentor?
OK, forgive me, but I cannot resist. The Cubs have hired Manny Ramirez, one of the nuttier and more selfish players in the game, the same guy who was suspended for like a century for using PEDs, to act as a player-coach at Iowa and mentor some of their budding stars. Is this surreal or what?
Back on the home planet, the Cubs split a series with the equally hopeless Padres. An outcome that was fair to all and demonstrated just how far these two teams are from being legitimate major league teams. The high note was Wood's dominant pitching performance. The low note Jackson's. On the bright side, Junior Lake is definitely showing some improvement at the plate and in the field. He's hitting for power, taking the ball to right field, and striking out less.
Samardzija pitches on Monday. You wonder what new way the Cubs will think up to deny him a victory.
Back on the home planet, the Cubs split a series with the equally hopeless Padres. An outcome that was fair to all and demonstrated just how far these two teams are from being legitimate major league teams. The high note was Wood's dominant pitching performance. The low note Jackson's. On the bright side, Junior Lake is definitely showing some improvement at the plate and in the field. He's hitting for power, taking the ball to right field, and striking out less.
Samardzija pitches on Monday. You wonder what new way the Cubs will think up to deny him a victory.
Thursday, May 22, 2014
Damn Yankees!
Well, actually the Cubs played rather well against the Yanks until the 9th inning of the second game, when they just fell apart. Poor Samardzija, no luck at all. Seven shutout innings and the team blows another one that was in the bag.
Maybe there is a curse, not so much on the Cubs as on certain players. I mean, Barney, the most reliable of all the Cubs infielders, makes the error. How likely is that? But when you are in a funk, strange things happen.
Of course, after that there were four or five innings of utter futility until the Cubs searched the bullpen to summon Veras to put the game away.
There is a long piece by Jon Heyman at CBSSports. com all about how the Cubs have got to take advantage of Samardzija's run of success and get rid of him now. Somehow I don't get this kind of reasoning. You spend five or six years developing an exciting talent and then you are supposed to trade him off because he is ahead of your schedule and he might not be so good as he is today when your current "prospects" arrive even though that date recedes farther and farther into the future.
In return you are likely to get the guys other teams think of as future stars in the making. You know, guys like Samardzija was three years ago, I suppose. If fans and management alike thought of these deals in terms of time and effort instead of the balance sheet, I wonder if they would sing a different tune. Also, lets start referring to the returns not as prospects, but as projects, which they really are.
A side note about Jose Veras. I thought he had regained his composure after the rehab stint. Guess not. Veras is the new Camp.
Lastly, I suppose all Cubs fans received the latest Ricketts video. What a crock! I have nothing against going ahead with these plans for whatever they are worth, but calling it "Building a Winner Can't Wait"? Huh? "Building a Winner Must Wait" is the real deal here, isn't it? The whole point of the Ricketts spiel is we cannot spend money on the team until we spend all our cash on infrastructure so we can make outrageous profits and then we'll think about the team because that's what Chicago deserves. OK?
Maybe there is a curse, not so much on the Cubs as on certain players. I mean, Barney, the most reliable of all the Cubs infielders, makes the error. How likely is that? But when you are in a funk, strange things happen.
Of course, after that there were four or five innings of utter futility until the Cubs searched the bullpen to summon Veras to put the game away.
There is a long piece by Jon Heyman at CBSSports. com all about how the Cubs have got to take advantage of Samardzija's run of success and get rid of him now. Somehow I don't get this kind of reasoning. You spend five or six years developing an exciting talent and then you are supposed to trade him off because he is ahead of your schedule and he might not be so good as he is today when your current "prospects" arrive even though that date recedes farther and farther into the future.
In return you are likely to get the guys other teams think of as future stars in the making. You know, guys like Samardzija was three years ago, I suppose. If fans and management alike thought of these deals in terms of time and effort instead of the balance sheet, I wonder if they would sing a different tune. Also, lets start referring to the returns not as prospects, but as projects, which they really are.
A side note about Jose Veras. I thought he had regained his composure after the rehab stint. Guess not. Veras is the new Camp.
Lastly, I suppose all Cubs fans received the latest Ricketts video. What a crock! I have nothing against going ahead with these plans for whatever they are worth, but calling it "Building a Winner Can't Wait"? Huh? "Building a Winner Must Wait" is the real deal here, isn't it? The whole point of the Ricketts spiel is we cannot spend money on the team until we spend all our cash on infrastructure so we can make outrageous profits and then we'll think about the team because that's what Chicago deserves. OK?
Tuesday, May 20, 2014
The Brewers Series
Ten runs in three games, but the Cubs managed to take only their second series in like forever against the Brewers. This was mainly on the strength of their pitching, superior starts from Jackson (surprise) and Wood. They might have at least contended for a sweep had they been able to catch and throw the ball in the first inning of Samardzija's start on Friday.
Anyway, the last series kind of underscores what a wasted season this has become. Contrary to popular belief at the end of last season, the NL Central has returned to its accustomed status as a weak division. The Brewers got off to a sensational start, but have returned to earth with a big thud. The Cardinals miss Beltran and are not the same team. The Pirates, as we predicted, have proved so far a flash in the pan.
The point of this is that the Cubs missed an opportunity to at least demonstrate a level of mediocrity not attained since 2009. So it goes.
Jesse Rogers has an interesting piece that confirms our earlier observations on the sad state of the Cubs outfield and the seeming unwillingness of Cubs brass to do anything about it. The arrival of the much vaunted and much hyped outfield saviors, Soler and Amora, is likely three or four years off. Rogers suggests moving players who are blocked or who would supplant acceptable current starters to the outfield right now, prospects like Bryant and Baez. Not a bad idea. I'd put Vogelbach in this mix as well.
Another idea, as in wait till next year, is to pick up an aging veteran with some pop. Guys like this are always available in the free agent market and could supply some much needed stability and veteran presence to a team lacking both. Someone to carry the weight until the future "stars" arrive. And I do not mean placeholders like Schierholtz either.
Anyway, the last series kind of underscores what a wasted season this has become. Contrary to popular belief at the end of last season, the NL Central has returned to its accustomed status as a weak division. The Brewers got off to a sensational start, but have returned to earth with a big thud. The Cardinals miss Beltran and are not the same team. The Pirates, as we predicted, have proved so far a flash in the pan.
The point of this is that the Cubs missed an opportunity to at least demonstrate a level of mediocrity not attained since 2009. So it goes.
Jesse Rogers has an interesting piece that confirms our earlier observations on the sad state of the Cubs outfield and the seeming unwillingness of Cubs brass to do anything about it. The arrival of the much vaunted and much hyped outfield saviors, Soler and Amora, is likely three or four years off. Rogers suggests moving players who are blocked or who would supplant acceptable current starters to the outfield right now, prospects like Bryant and Baez. Not a bad idea. I'd put Vogelbach in this mix as well.
Another idea, as in wait till next year, is to pick up an aging veteran with some pop. Guys like this are always available in the free agent market and could supply some much needed stability and veteran presence to a team lacking both. Someone to carry the weight until the future "stars" arrive. And I do not mean placeholders like Schierholtz either.
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
Same Old, Same Old
The season is about one-fourth finished. One conclusion you can draw is that the Cubs have no offense whatsoever unless they bring out their right-handed hitting lineup against an inexperienced or indifferent left-hander, in which case they will score ten or twelve runs.
Gordon Wittenmyer makes some observations about the Cubs offense. In the same article, Renteria makes noise about how the Cubs are battling and there is nothing he can think about doing to remedy their flaws. Today, Renteria notes in a Tribune article that he plans to stick with the idiotic platoons and matchups:
Now no one expects miracles, but there are things you can do that may or may not work and I do think you owe it to the game to put the best possible lineup on the field and to include on a regular basis players who are of major league caliber or have the potential to achieve that level of merit. That is not happening right now and it is not just because, by and large, the Cubs do not have a productive major league outfielder on the team.
I think the Cubs need to be brutally honest with themselves this season, and by that I mean they have to demand a certain level of achievement and progress from their young players. In return, the Cubs need to give these guys a chance to play consistently.
For example, Olt, who has started roughly half the time, leads the team in home runs and has as many RBI as the "cleanup" man Castro. Sure, he has struck out a lot and has an anemic average, but don't you want to know what he can do day-in, day-out? Worse case scenario he turns out to be a bust or a flash in the pan. Luis Valbuena has nearly the same number of plate appearances as Olt and has struck out only four fewer times. Why is there a virtual platoon here when you know Valbuena's potential (utility man, pinch hitter) and you need to find out Olt's?
Lake is another guy they need to find out about. When he connects he is great, but he has a lot to learn and maybe he will never learn, but, heck, let him play everyday for a couple of weeks and if he does not respond, send him down to AAA to get straightened out.
On the issue of progress, what is most disappointing is the seeming lack thereof of many of the Cubs youngsters. This year I assume the Cubs were looking for breakouts from players with some major league experience like Castillo, Rizzo, and Castro. I think they are getting the kind of play they expected from Castillo and Rizzo. I've got my doubts about Castro and whether he will ever be the player they have projected him to be.
This is Castro's fifth year. Everybody says he is having a bounceback year. However, if you look at the numbers, they mirror almost exactly his numbers from 2012, which was the first of his disappointing seasons. Yeah, it is a bounceback, but not even to his rookie level.
Also, he has not improved at all in his erratic performance in the field. He still hurries plays he doesn't need to, botches routine plays, and nonchalants plays he needs to rush. If you are content with a .280 hitter with occasional power who strikes out a lot and rarely walks, then Castro is your shortstop. Ordinarily, these are good numbers for his position, but then SS is a defensive position, so if you get good defense, fine, and if you don't, time to move the player either to another spot or another team.
To close the book on Castro, I just do not see him as a #4 hitter, and I rather think the numbers bear out this opinion. Castro is batting .211 with runners in scoring position. His average and production batting fourth is pretty much in line with his career production since 2012, which, however, is nowhere near the production you expect from a #4. Castro should hit #6.
To close the book on Renteria for now, how many times does he need to blow a game with wild relievers who obviously have nothing going for them that night without having someone warming up? I mean, you announce you have closer by committee so that the presumed closer doesn't have his feelings hurt or lose confidence when you get somebody up when he is in trouble. Last night was pathetic but this has happened at least four or five times this year.
Gordon Wittenmyer makes some observations about the Cubs offense. In the same article, Renteria makes noise about how the Cubs are battling and there is nothing he can think about doing to remedy their flaws. Today, Renteria notes in a Tribune article that he plans to stick with the idiotic platoons and matchups:
"We're still mixing and matching, and we'll probably continue to do so until we see where we're all at," Renteria said Tuesday. "The way we balance it out, everyone is getting at-bats. Everyone is playing, so … let them do what they need to do. Besides the practice, they need to play in games to show what they're able to do.''Not to be too snotty about it, but the Cubs ought to know exactly where they are. They are in last place in their division and they lose, on average, two of every three games they play. Their starting pitching is quite good, their bullpen is spotty but reasonably effective. They lose because they do not score runs and because they often play sloppy baseball in close games.
Now no one expects miracles, but there are things you can do that may or may not work and I do think you owe it to the game to put the best possible lineup on the field and to include on a regular basis players who are of major league caliber or have the potential to achieve that level of merit. That is not happening right now and it is not just because, by and large, the Cubs do not have a productive major league outfielder on the team.
I think the Cubs need to be brutally honest with themselves this season, and by that I mean they have to demand a certain level of achievement and progress from their young players. In return, the Cubs need to give these guys a chance to play consistently.
For example, Olt, who has started roughly half the time, leads the team in home runs and has as many RBI as the "cleanup" man Castro. Sure, he has struck out a lot and has an anemic average, but don't you want to know what he can do day-in, day-out? Worse case scenario he turns out to be a bust or a flash in the pan. Luis Valbuena has nearly the same number of plate appearances as Olt and has struck out only four fewer times. Why is there a virtual platoon here when you know Valbuena's potential (utility man, pinch hitter) and you need to find out Olt's?
Lake is another guy they need to find out about. When he connects he is great, but he has a lot to learn and maybe he will never learn, but, heck, let him play everyday for a couple of weeks and if he does not respond, send him down to AAA to get straightened out.
On the issue of progress, what is most disappointing is the seeming lack thereof of many of the Cubs youngsters. This year I assume the Cubs were looking for breakouts from players with some major league experience like Castillo, Rizzo, and Castro. I think they are getting the kind of play they expected from Castillo and Rizzo. I've got my doubts about Castro and whether he will ever be the player they have projected him to be.
This is Castro's fifth year. Everybody says he is having a bounceback year. However, if you look at the numbers, they mirror almost exactly his numbers from 2012, which was the first of his disappointing seasons. Yeah, it is a bounceback, but not even to his rookie level.
Also, he has not improved at all in his erratic performance in the field. He still hurries plays he doesn't need to, botches routine plays, and nonchalants plays he needs to rush. If you are content with a .280 hitter with occasional power who strikes out a lot and rarely walks, then Castro is your shortstop. Ordinarily, these are good numbers for his position, but then SS is a defensive position, so if you get good defense, fine, and if you don't, time to move the player either to another spot or another team.
To close the book on Castro, I just do not see him as a #4 hitter, and I rather think the numbers bear out this opinion. Castro is batting .211 with runners in scoring position. His average and production batting fourth is pretty much in line with his career production since 2012, which, however, is nowhere near the production you expect from a #4. Castro should hit #6.
To close the book on Renteria for now, how many times does he need to blow a game with wild relievers who obviously have nothing going for them that night without having someone warming up? I mean, you announce you have closer by committee so that the presumed closer doesn't have his feelings hurt or lose confidence when you get somebody up when he is in trouble. Last night was pathetic but this has happened at least four or five times this year.
Tuesday, May 6, 2014
Samardzija
Wow, this guy just cannot get a win no matter what. Nine innings, three hits, one unearned run, a double and scores the only run an anemic Cubs offense can produce. Net result: no decision.
There was an interesting piece from Gordon Wittenmyer this morning in the Sun-Times. More interesting for what is not said than what is said. The general tenor is the Cubs players think Samardzija is great, as do the fans, but it is a foregone conclusion that because Samardzija will not sign a team-friendly extension, he will be traded in July for more prospects that it will take the team five or six years to develop. Just as it has taken the Cubs six years to develop Samardzija.
I guess what is left unsaid is implied in the remarks of Jake Arietta that are quoted in the piece. It must be incredibly demoralizing for the players to see talented teammates traded away each and every year while you are marking time for the same fate.
In short, there are a lot of downsides to the current rebuilding strategy and, to my mind, rather little to recommend it in terms of success.
Oh, the Cubs lost another heartbreaker last night in the newest version of winter baseball. These 30 degree windchill games in May are not really baseball.
Last night the Cubs and Sox put on a kind of clinic in how not to play winning baseball for the first half of the game, then settled into a sounder, more decorous version where you wonder if anybody will ever score a run and you know when it happens it is going to be pretty ugly.
The Cubs blinked first in the twelfth, allowing two runs to a two-out rally by the Sox, fueled mostly by Cubs reliever Justin Grimm's inability to throw strikes.
Two thoughts on this, viz., what is it about he lefty-righty matchup that so fascinates Rookie Renteria? I mean, Wright can pitch to right-handers too and in a twelve inning game, shouldn't you conserve your bullpen? And how come nobody is ever warming up during these control meltdowns?
There was an interesting piece from Gordon Wittenmyer this morning in the Sun-Times. More interesting for what is not said than what is said. The general tenor is the Cubs players think Samardzija is great, as do the fans, but it is a foregone conclusion that because Samardzija will not sign a team-friendly extension, he will be traded in July for more prospects that it will take the team five or six years to develop. Just as it has taken the Cubs six years to develop Samardzija.
I guess what is left unsaid is implied in the remarks of Jake Arietta that are quoted in the piece. It must be incredibly demoralizing for the players to see talented teammates traded away each and every year while you are marking time for the same fate.
In short, there are a lot of downsides to the current rebuilding strategy and, to my mind, rather little to recommend it in terms of success.
Oh, the Cubs lost another heartbreaker last night in the newest version of winter baseball. These 30 degree windchill games in May are not really baseball.
Last night the Cubs and Sox put on a kind of clinic in how not to play winning baseball for the first half of the game, then settled into a sounder, more decorous version where you wonder if anybody will ever score a run and you know when it happens it is going to be pretty ugly.
The Cubs blinked first in the twelfth, allowing two runs to a two-out rally by the Sox, fueled mostly by Cubs reliever Justin Grimm's inability to throw strikes.
Two thoughts on this, viz., what is it about he lefty-righty matchup that so fascinates Rookie Renteria? I mean, Wright can pitch to right-handers too and in a twelve inning game, shouldn't you conserve your bullpen? And how come nobody is ever warming up during these control meltdowns?
Sunday, May 4, 2014
The Cardinals Series
First off, the good news. The Cubs played intelligent and fundamentally sound baseball for 26 innings against the Cards, falling one inning short of a sweep. They showed a much more patient approach at the plate, working up the pitch count against three really good St. Louis starters, viz., Wainwright, Wacha, and Lynn. Rizzo, in particular, had an excellent series and is emerging as a really professional hitter against both left-handed and right-handed pitching. Castillo is also starting to live up to his promise. The Cubs also got good starts from Wood, Arietta, and Hammel, even though the first and last did not have their best stuff and had to scuffle a little to keep the team in the game.
Now the bad news, which is mainly Renteria. OK, I won't dwell on the constant lineup changes and the bizarre attachment to playing Sweeney and other mopes nearly every day. What really lost the chance for a sweep was using Rondon for the third consecutive day with the game on the line. I know he threw hardly any pitches the first two days, but unless you have a guy like Rivera or Eckersley, you don't want to give an opponent three straight days of looking at the same stuff. Good teams are likely to figure you out.
When Rondon got in trouble, how come only a lefty was warming up? Once Renteria decided to stick with Rondon against Carpenter, you knew he would not bring in Wright to face Molina as had Molina won the game, which he did, everyone would have asked him why he put Wright in an unfavorable matchup.
There is a deeper issue here that I have with the way the Cubs are managed. They are being handled like a AAA team. Everybody is getting tested and evaluated and moved around and so on, but not in a way that is designed to win games, but to figure out if they are capable of certain things, etc.
Contrary to the hope that this sort of style will build confidence or enable management to make sound decisions, this sort of thing can have just the opposite effect. Furthermore, players are not getting a consistent look. They just play every now and then so they can never get in a groove. Or, if they get in a groove, they sit for a few days, come back, and start pressing to get more playing time.
The Cubs certainly know who potentially fits into their plans and they ought to play these guys all the time to at least find out what the score is. That means the placeholders and benchwarmers do not play regularly.
The other thing I have against this style is really that it dishonors the game. In the majors, you field your best lineup on a day to day basis and you manage to win games, not to teach lessons or test situations. That's why they call it a championship season.
Now the bad news, which is mainly Renteria. OK, I won't dwell on the constant lineup changes and the bizarre attachment to playing Sweeney and other mopes nearly every day. What really lost the chance for a sweep was using Rondon for the third consecutive day with the game on the line. I know he threw hardly any pitches the first two days, but unless you have a guy like Rivera or Eckersley, you don't want to give an opponent three straight days of looking at the same stuff. Good teams are likely to figure you out.
When Rondon got in trouble, how come only a lefty was warming up? Once Renteria decided to stick with Rondon against Carpenter, you knew he would not bring in Wright to face Molina as had Molina won the game, which he did, everyone would have asked him why he put Wright in an unfavorable matchup.
There is a deeper issue here that I have with the way the Cubs are managed. They are being handled like a AAA team. Everybody is getting tested and evaluated and moved around and so on, but not in a way that is designed to win games, but to figure out if they are capable of certain things, etc.
Contrary to the hope that this sort of style will build confidence or enable management to make sound decisions, this sort of thing can have just the opposite effect. Furthermore, players are not getting a consistent look. They just play every now and then so they can never get in a groove. Or, if they get in a groove, they sit for a few days, come back, and start pressing to get more playing time.
The Cubs certainly know who potentially fits into their plans and they ought to play these guys all the time to at least find out what the score is. That means the placeholders and benchwarmers do not play regularly.
The other thing I have against this style is really that it dishonors the game. In the majors, you field your best lineup on a day to day basis and you manage to win games, not to teach lessons or test situations. That's why they call it a championship season.
Thursday, May 1, 2014
Cincinnati
The Cubs split a rain-shortened series in Cincinnati. They finished the month 9-16 and are 9-17 for the season, not having won a single series going back to mid-September of last year. Their record is second worst in the league just ahead of Arizona and third worst in all of baseball, just slightly better than the hopeless Astros. Not much to boast about and certainly no reason for optimism.
Notwithstanding this performance, the Cubs have three real starting pitchers and the makings of a decent bullpen. The reason they lose is largely because they cannot hit a lick and do not know how to play winning baseball, how to adjust to situations. You might chalk this up to their youth, but they have been playing this way since 2010, so who knows. Maybe they are just not very good and their potential is not especially great.
Renteria sent out the lineup I have been advocating most of the season and got good results in the Wednesday game. Of course, it was his right-handed lineup, but it also contains his best offensive and defensive players. The Cubs ought to stick to this lineup for a while and maybe let these players adjust to playing every day for the time being. Perhaps someone will finally figure things out.
Notwithstanding this performance, the Cubs have three real starting pitchers and the makings of a decent bullpen. The reason they lose is largely because they cannot hit a lick and do not know how to play winning baseball, how to adjust to situations. You might chalk this up to their youth, but they have been playing this way since 2010, so who knows. Maybe they are just not very good and their potential is not especially great.
Renteria sent out the lineup I have been advocating most of the season and got good results in the Wednesday game. Of course, it was his right-handed lineup, but it also contains his best offensive and defensive players. The Cubs ought to stick to this lineup for a while and maybe let these players adjust to playing every day for the time being. Perhaps someone will finally figure things out.
Monday, April 28, 2014
The Brewers Series
It's still April and already I am sick of watching this team. Same old, same old. They figured to lose Friday as Villanueva was pitching. They lost again on Saturday because Wood had a bad outing.
One of the surprises this year has been the consistent performance of Jason Hammel, whom I admit I did not hold in much regard, especially after a pretty awful spring training. He pitched another gem on Sunday to salvage at least one game from the Brewers.
Of course, everyone expects the Cubs to trade him at the deadline along with Samardzija. This, as readers of this blog will note, is a strategy I cannot grasp.
Taking just Samardzija into account, it has taken the Cubs six years to develop Samardzija into the pitcher he is today. It makes some degree of sense to acquire a player that another organization spent some years to develop to the point of becoming a sure-fire major league talent the following season, but, in the main, the Cubs have received players in exchange who are similar projects of three or four years duration. I don't get it.
It is a measure of the disgrace this franchise has fallen to that players now regard getting traded as some kind of prison break they must work toward. Here's a link to a Gordon Wittenmyer article on the subject.
Some relatively predicable developments that are occurring earlier than usual in another seemingly lost season:
Anyway, they make for very boring viewing and I can only imagine what the clubhouse must be like after all these years of hopeless defeat.
One of the surprises this year has been the consistent performance of Jason Hammel, whom I admit I did not hold in much regard, especially after a pretty awful spring training. He pitched another gem on Sunday to salvage at least one game from the Brewers.
Of course, everyone expects the Cubs to trade him at the deadline along with Samardzija. This, as readers of this blog will note, is a strategy I cannot grasp.
Taking just Samardzija into account, it has taken the Cubs six years to develop Samardzija into the pitcher he is today. It makes some degree of sense to acquire a player that another organization spent some years to develop to the point of becoming a sure-fire major league talent the following season, but, in the main, the Cubs have received players in exchange who are similar projects of three or four years duration. I don't get it.
It is a measure of the disgrace this franchise has fallen to that players now regard getting traded as some kind of prison break they must work toward. Here's a link to a Gordon Wittenmyer article on the subject.
Some relatively predicable developments that are occurring earlier than usual in another seemingly lost season:
- Even though the Cubs main problem is failing to score runs, they have gone to the 13 man pitching staff in the aftermath of the Ruggiano injury. The bench was notably short of options in Saturday's loss.
- The Cubs continue, in the main, to score runs only when they hit home runs. I suppose this is because when they bat, they try to hit a home run all the time or else because they have no idea how to hit based on the game situation and every now and then they get lucky.
Anyway, they make for very boring viewing and I can only imagine what the clubhouse must be like after all these years of hopeless defeat.
Thursday, April 24, 2014
What Can You Say?
The Cubs were poised to win their third game in a row going into the 9th inning on Wednesday, ahead 5-2 after another superb performance by Jeff Samardzija. I guess it was not a surprise that after pitching well enough to be appointed the official closer, Pedro Strop just fell apart. Of course, he had help from both the baseball gods and Starlin Castro and his own wildness.
I've got to say that was some freaky inning. The ball that bounced off the corner of second base was just weird. Castro's error was simply inexcusable. It's also a little strange that after the game, Castro explained that he hurried the play because he wanted to get two even though he knew that was improbable given Campana's speed. He should have known that then, but, then again, that is why in his fifth year as the starting shortstop on a major league team, he is still considered a work-in-progress.
In reality, the Diamondbacks made like six outs in the inning and hit only one ball hard, the Montero single. I only saw the play on TV, but the winning hit, the blooper that resulted in the Ruggiano injury, looked catchable. Ruggiano played both that ball and the Montero hit very tentatively, although for sure, given his positioning, the Montero ball was clearly going to be a hit.
I wonder if I am the only one who has noticed how tentatively all the Cubs outfielders are playing this year. Every time they go back on a ball they start feeling for the wall with one hand as soon as they hit the first stride of the warning track. Maybe they need to get someone to coach outfield play like Dave McKay, who managed to teach Soriano how to play a passable left field.
All in all, a rather typical end to the big ballpark anniversary.
Thursday's game the team looked flat and exhausted all the way through after the first inning. Jackson got himself behind early before turning in a decent start. After the game, Renteria opined that Veras looked a lot better, had better command. Geez, sometimes you wonder what game these guys are watching. Veras gave up two runs in the 8th inning and effectively turned a close game at 3-1 into a hopeless cause.
I've got to say that was some freaky inning. The ball that bounced off the corner of second base was just weird. Castro's error was simply inexcusable. It's also a little strange that after the game, Castro explained that he hurried the play because he wanted to get two even though he knew that was improbable given Campana's speed. He should have known that then, but, then again, that is why in his fifth year as the starting shortstop on a major league team, he is still considered a work-in-progress.
In reality, the Diamondbacks made like six outs in the inning and hit only one ball hard, the Montero single. I only saw the play on TV, but the winning hit, the blooper that resulted in the Ruggiano injury, looked catchable. Ruggiano played both that ball and the Montero hit very tentatively, although for sure, given his positioning, the Montero ball was clearly going to be a hit.
I wonder if I am the only one who has noticed how tentatively all the Cubs outfielders are playing this year. Every time they go back on a ball they start feeling for the wall with one hand as soon as they hit the first stride of the warning track. Maybe they need to get someone to coach outfield play like Dave McKay, who managed to teach Soriano how to play a passable left field.
All in all, a rather typical end to the big ballpark anniversary.
Thursday's game the team looked flat and exhausted all the way through after the first inning. Jackson got himself behind early before turning in a decent start. After the game, Renteria opined that Veras looked a lot better, had better command. Geez, sometimes you wonder what game these guys are watching. Veras gave up two runs in the 8th inning and effectively turned a close game at 3-1 into a hopeless cause.
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
Wood Tops D-Backs 5-1
It was the Travis Wood show last night. Wood pitched seven innings of one-run ball and drove in four runs with a three-run homer and an RBI double. The rest of the team? Meh.
Some of my friends think I am too critical of Renteria's lineups and that I am being too hard on him in general, but I really think that after eighteen games and all of spring training, some conclusions are possible beyond the platoons and bunts and that it is time to make them.
Last night's lineup is a case in point. Strictly platoons and matchups. What did it produce? Nothing. The whole game hinged on the performance of a single player, Travis Wood.
Last night the lefties were 4 for 22 with two walks; the righties were 5 for 9 with one walk. Great production from that platoon system, eh? The point is that platoons are great with players of relatively equal ability and potential.
The problem with the Cubs platoons is the left-handed side of them is generally, with the exception of Anthony Rizzo, inferior in talent and ability. So playing these guys to the detriment of establishing a regular everyday lineup that promotes the development of players who may have a higher ceiling is counter-productive.
Some of my friends think I am too critical of Renteria's lineups and that I am being too hard on him in general, but I really think that after eighteen games and all of spring training, some conclusions are possible beyond the platoons and bunts and that it is time to make them.
Last night's lineup is a case in point. Strictly platoons and matchups. What did it produce? Nothing. The whole game hinged on the performance of a single player, Travis Wood.
Last night the lefties were 4 for 22 with two walks; the righties were 5 for 9 with one walk. Great production from that platoon system, eh? The point is that platoons are great with players of relatively equal ability and potential.
The problem with the Cubs platoons is the left-handed side of them is generally, with the exception of Anthony Rizzo, inferior in talent and ability. So playing these guys to the detriment of establishing a regular everyday lineup that promotes the development of players who may have a higher ceiling is counter-productive.
Saturday, April 19, 2014
An Epiphany of Sorts
Rick Renteria finally figured out that the Cubs played sloppy baseball and said so. Wow! Now maybe we can take some steps to correct the problem.
At least the Cubs played a good game today and Edwin Jackson even pitched an acceptable game, in large measure because he finally decided to change speeds once and a while.
Most of the Cubs improvement came from playing their right-handed hitting lineup. Actually this lineup is, right now, the best lineup they can field on an everyday basis with the exception of having Schierholtz and Ruggiano platoon in RF and dropping Castro to #6.
I cannot understand why a team like the Cubs would not play Olt everyday. He pretty much hits a home run whenever he plays and for a team that lacks power and the ability to score runs, what's wrong with playing a guy who can produce, at least occasionally.
The other thing I don't get is why Barney doesn't play everyday as well. If you do not score a lot, defense becomes an issue as well. Today Barney contributed on offense and defense as well, but he really did excel in the field, as he usually does. Runs the other team does not score are often as important as runs they do score.
In contrast to Barney's performance, take Bonafacio's defense in Friday's game. Missed tag on a pickoff attempt because he was positioned a foot away from the base, wild throw on a sure double play. Two runs allowed.
I don't mean to single out Bonafacio either. He has been a pleasant surprise so far and played a good game today. I continue to believe his career performance will ultimately prevail, but while he is doing well, let him play CF where he can do the least harm defensively. He is not a good infielder and never has been, which is why he has never been able to stick in the infield on any team.
Today was the sixteenth game of the season, roughly one-tenth of the year. 5-11. Which is on a pace to lose well over 100 games.
At least the Cubs played a good game today and Edwin Jackson even pitched an acceptable game, in large measure because he finally decided to change speeds once and a while.
Most of the Cubs improvement came from playing their right-handed hitting lineup. Actually this lineup is, right now, the best lineup they can field on an everyday basis with the exception of having Schierholtz and Ruggiano platoon in RF and dropping Castro to #6.
I cannot understand why a team like the Cubs would not play Olt everyday. He pretty much hits a home run whenever he plays and for a team that lacks power and the ability to score runs, what's wrong with playing a guy who can produce, at least occasionally.
The other thing I don't get is why Barney doesn't play everyday as well. If you do not score a lot, defense becomes an issue as well. Today Barney contributed on offense and defense as well, but he really did excel in the field, as he usually does. Runs the other team does not score are often as important as runs they do score.
In contrast to Barney's performance, take Bonafacio's defense in Friday's game. Missed tag on a pickoff attempt because he was positioned a foot away from the base, wild throw on a sure double play. Two runs allowed.
I don't mean to single out Bonafacio either. He has been a pleasant surprise so far and played a good game today. I continue to believe his career performance will ultimately prevail, but while he is doing well, let him play CF where he can do the least harm defensively. He is not a good infielder and never has been, which is why he has never been able to stick in the infield on any team.
Today was the sixteenth game of the season, roughly one-tenth of the year. 5-11. Which is on a pace to lose well over 100 games.
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